OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Think the limitation in the US is mostly refining capability. A lot of them were closed during 2020ish, and they cost a lot to bring out of moth ball (as in a billion dollars per), assuming they can find the workers. Then there''s also lack of infrastructure (ie pipes) to transport the stuff efficiently to where it's most needed. The Dem party is really the obstacle there. Right now, they're flat out refining gasoline. Hope you'all don't need heating oil this winter.
He was talking about bear market rally through the end of the year. The market hasn't yet factored in a reduction of '23 earnings, or the compression of margins and FX issues. It's only now that you're starting to see companies mark down '23 expectations. Good companies out there, for sure, and you'll probably be sitting in the green by '24-'25 but think you also have another leg down. I wouldn't shoot all the bullets here.
Bears has been screaming about earnings for 3-4 quarters. What happened to all those Q2, 3, and 4 markdowns?
No one was "screaming" about earnings revision earlier this year because it takes 8-12 months or longer for monetary policy to work through the economy. The markdowns were always centered around Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, and that's what you're starting to see.
There was definitely some thought 2nd qtr earnings would disappoint, not because of the fed, but because of inflation. They held up pretty well though.
jobs keep coming in strong too but the market is conflicted over that.
Bickering is pointless. The market will reveal itself. Invest per your beliefs and due diligence. And good luck.
This still applies. S&P probably hit 3,300-3,400 in a few weeks. No pivot this year.
Brought more Treasuries 4.3% mature 1/31/23. 2 year will be 5% at end of the year.
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Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report
The major averages notched a winning week, despite sliding on Friday on the jobs report.
I'm a Ron Insana fan:
www.cnbc.com
Ron Insana: It's time to use an 'all of the above' energy policy to break up the OPEC+ cartel
Saudi Arabia's decision to ally with Russia means it's time for the U.S. to take every available step it can to boost U.S. energy production.
Interesting articleI'm a Ron Insana fan:
Ron Insana: It's time to use an 'all of the above' energy policy to break up the OPEC+ cartel
Saudi Arabia's decision to ally with Russia means it's time for the U.S. to take every available step it can to boost U.S. energy production.
I am in favor of using all types of energy sources including nuclear
The reason we no longer have a relationship with Iran can be traced back to the British convincing Eisenhower that the Iranian elected government was too close to the Soviet Union so if the Saudi’s want to get assist Putin we should cut them off also
The US and Canada have plenty of resources to do this.....but likely not the will.I'm a Ron Insana fan:
Ron Insana: It's time to use an 'all of the above' energy policy to break up the OPEC+ cartel
Saudi Arabia's decision to ally with Russia means it's time for the U.S. to take every available step it can to boost U.S. energy production.
I'm sure Tom is rocking it, as usual. They normally post the video later in the day. I will check it out. Large buying in 3 of our accounts today. Better yet, getting a hefty LTI bonus payout at the end of the month. I never hope for a down market, but no matter what happens over the next few weeks, I'm good!
:)
See my last post. In a few weeks, we'll get enough new cash for a 12-15x buy!
Actually, my next big decision will be converting VOO in two of our accounts to SSO (2x S&P 500). I've been patient on this. Definitely want to lock in a price that gives me at least double returns when the index gets back to ATHs.
The next big potential catalyst will be next Thursday with the CPI report. Headline number of +8.3% expected. If we get a more tepid number, maybe we'll see a relief rally for the short-term at least.
Very true.
And sadly, CPI is the biggest BS inflation metric out there with the focus on YoY even dumber.
Based on past posts, and notwithstanding your typical buying sprees, I have to believe you are down HUGE. You were buying MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, CRM, etc. at all time highs. And, I’m not saying I haven’t taken some lumps but level with us = you’ve been obliterated.
I bought most of those stocks (first time ever) in March and May of 2021. No where close to ATHs. LOL! As for all my funds and ETFs (about 95% of our investments).....up spectacularly in total gains, obviously down for the year.
The objective now is to get in the best position to maximize the return of the bull rally. Can't be timid. Can't be scared of temporary paper losses. Gotta stick to the plan and realize, now is the time that makes people the most money (if they have the stomach).
Just as long as you have a long horizon, you will recover your losses from this year. It might take 3-5 years but you’ll continue contribute to your 401K at lower stock prices. I never told my younger relatives, (30-40 years old) to move a portion of the 401k to cash but they will recover in the long run Just like you. I did mention it to my sister who is retiring this year so she did move more over to cash. My brother who did listen to me before the 2008 crash moved it to cash but now has his assets managed professionally. Hope they know what they are doing.
March/May 2021 was not far from ATHs depending on the trading days. Just so I understand, with 95% of investments in ETFs, when you tell the crowd here that you are buying MSFT, CRM, etc., what are you buying like 25-50 shares (or less) of each? Your individual stock positions must be crumbs…?
Haven't bought any stocks in months and months. Perhaps 6 months? They are not my thing.
Come on, everybody is losing something now. He knows he’s down from ATH account balance. T2K been beating me up on this board for the last 3-5 years for my investment decisions. All he can do is learn from this experience.
How are stocks not your thing when you tell everyone that you are buying TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, CRM, etc. Folks can feel free to correct me if I’m wrong but you’ve absolutely led us to believe that you are buying stocks - and lots of them - in addition to ETFs. For example, when NVDA and CRM got crushed recently you said you were still buying. Sh*t ain’t adding up here…
On August 24, you wrote:
“Outstanding Q for CRM in tough conditions. Very impressive! I will add to my position if the market stays dumb tomorrow.”
There are tons of posts from you within last 6 months about you DCA’ing into your individual stock holdings.
Did the market stay dumb the following day? As for TSLA, I bought it once on 3/5/21 at $570 pre recent split.
However, I own a ton more via funds and ETFs.
Learning the same lesson as I did in 2008/2009, 2018, and 2020. Keep buying, don't go CL, use the opportunity to position yourself for the rebound. This works all the time.
Re: CRM it was $180 on 8/24 so based on current levels the market did not stay dumb?
Just looked, mostly bought CRM last March and May with a CB of $209 and change. We have very nice dips back then.
Given the continued employment growth i just don’t see how earnings don’t come in solid this quarter. Not surprisingly good, but merely in line, meh in normal markets, but encouraging here.
i also think any potential for a soft landing has to include a fairly long time line. Inflation slowly comes down while enmployment remains strong before softening slighty. This still has awhile before this plays itself out.
i also think any potential for a soft landing has to include a fairly long time line. Inflation slowly comes down while enmployment remains strong before softening slighty. This still has awhile before this plays itself out.
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Inflation is only coming down "slowly" due to awful lagging metrics and people using YoY for some dumb reason. Inflation has crashed. Even rent went deflationary last month. If the Fed realizes this soon, a soft landing will happen.
I guess it’s a matter of which metrics you want to abide by but in the real world I certainly don’t feel as though we are in an “inflation has crashed” environment. It has stabilized but the environment still feels, at least prone, to inflation.
Inflation is price increases. That is no longer happening in general. That doesn't mean prices went down to levels in early 2021 or that they ever will. Ironically, about 2/3 of inflation has been mitigated by higher wages. So, we are talking about real inflation of about 3 or 4%. Seriously? Much ado about not much. LOL!
