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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I probably have a much longer time horizon than some on this thread, but $10K…9.62%…seems like “crumbs” given the opportunities in the stock market…no? I’m not screaming ATHs are coming but we should find a bottom in next 6 months and at that point there will be plenty of money to be made.
I have always used 8% as my goal for my returns over time so any portion of money I can lock in above that rate I tried to do that.

I may be more conservative than many and that rate was basically in a low inflation environment for close to 40 years

I was able to pay for college, a wedding and have a secure retirement based on my plan.
 
I probably have a much longer time horizon than some on this thread, but $10K…9.62%…seems like “crumbs” given the opportunities in the stock market…no? I’m not screaming ATHs are coming but we should find a bottom in next 6 months and at that point there will be plenty of money to be made.
"Crumbs," perhaps, in relative terms. But it's a "sure thing" amidst the economic storm, perhaps a prolonged one at that. And you only have to hold for one year. Most important, contextually, again, the opportunity for a married couple is a $40k investment in 2022 as October closes. $10k each as the 2022 annual limit, and then reciprocating/exchanging gifts of $10k each in October that are then transfered in 2023, counting as each's 2023 contribution limit. So 9.62% for $40k at 6 months plus 6.50% for the second 6 months, with a continuing benefit that the next rate adjustment in April 2023 would extend the attractive interest rate for at least another 6 months. There's also a tax advantage, as you avoid state tax on the gains.
 
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"Crumbs," perhaps, in relative terms. But it's a "sure thing" amidst the economic storm, perhaps a prolonged one at that. And you only have to hold for one year. Most important, contextually, again, the opportunity for a married couple is a $40k investment in 2022 as October closes. $10k each as the 2022 annual limit, and then reciprocating/exchanging gifts of $10k each in October that are then transfered in 2023, counting as each's 2023 contribution limit. So 9.62% for $40k at 6 months plus 6.50% for the second 6 months, with a continuing benefit that the next rate adjustment in April 2023 would extend the attractive interest rate for at least another 6 months. There's also a tax advantage, as you avoid state tax on the gains.
I don't care if it's crumbs or not. I'll take whatever I consider a good return anywhere I can find it.
 

Interesting that Cramer suggest to sell stocks next week. I assume that he expect a fall to the next level. I don’t think he normally tell people to sell, kind of late unless he expects 3,000 level. It’s a tough time holding stocks.

I know many don’t like his recommendations but I like all input.
 
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Interesting that Cramer suggest to sell stocks next week. I assume that he expect a fall to the next level. I don’t think he normally tell people to sell, kind of late unless he expects 3,000 level. It’s a tough time holding stocks.

I know many don’t like his recommendations but I like all input.
On the bright side.....SSO at $39.60. Back to the high return is now 88% ($74.47). Getting close to the target zone!
 
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I probably have a much longer time horizon than some on this thread, but $10K…9.62%…seems like “crumbs” given the opportunities in the stock market…no? I’m not screaming ATHs are coming but we should find a bottom in next 6 months and at that point there will be plenty of money to be made.
Wow, 9.62% is crumbs. I think my retirement projections, I used 5%.
 
So my 8% was not conservative

It would be interesting to know what other people are setting as their objective for average returns
5% based on 50% equity, 35% fixed income and 15% cash allocation after retirement.
 
Wow, 9.62% is crumbs. I think my retirement projections, I used 5%.
I use the same projection of 5% compound interest for my retirement plan. I also chose a 3.5% interest rate to calculate yearly/monthly earnings to cover expected expenses. I try to be as conservative as possible.

Any additional interest over the 5% only accelerates plans
 
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Wow, 9.62% is crumbs. I think my retirement projections, I used 5%.
I think he's referring more to the 10K part of it than the 9.62% part of it. Personally, I don't care what the amount is, a good return is a good return. I'm not so snooty that I won't care about 10K and what I can get for it.
 
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I think he's referring more to the 10K part of it than the 9.62% part of it. Personally, I don't care what the amount is, a good return is a good return. I'm not so snooty that I won't care about 10K and what I can get for it.
Yeah the 9.62% is great as well even if it goes own to ~6.5%. To TKs point though its much smaller amount that you can diversify with and would be great if they removed the $10k cap
 
Yeah the 9.62% is great as well even if it goes own to ~6.5%. To TKs point though its much smaller amount that you can diversify with and would be great if they removed the $10k cap
There's a bill taking shape to increase the I-Bond annual limit to $30k to promote retirement investing and security. So perhaps $60k per couple annually plus the reciprocal gifting option.
 

Interesting that Cramer suggest to sell stocks next week. I assume that he expect a fall to the next level. I don’t think he normally tell people to sell, kind of late unless he expects 3,000 level. It’s a tough time holding stocks.

I know many don’t like his recommendations but I like all input.
Expectations re: earnings reports are still too optimistic. Wait til 1Q23 for reality to set in.
 
So my 8% was not conservative

It would be interesting to know what other people are setting as their objective for average returns
We use 7.5% on all retirement calculations. Once we get closer to actual retirement and create our 3 buckets of assets, each bucket will use a different RoR metric with our long-term bucket still using 7.5%.

Likely 6%'ish for the medium bucket which will consist of 60/40 or 50/50 stocks to bonds. Our short term bucket will be fixed income, so perhaps 3%? Haven't thought of that one yet.
 
There's a bill taking shape to increase the I-Bond annual limit to $30k to promote retirement investing and security. So perhaps $60k per couple annually plus the reciprocal gifting option.
Also hoping to see 401k and IRA contribution limits get nice increases for 2023. That should be announced soon.
 
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There's a bill taking shape to increase the I-Bond annual limit to $30k to promote retirement investing and security. So perhaps $60k per couple annually plus the reciprocal gifting option.
Funny no one asked for this in the last 10 years. Hopefully, it’s a short term trade.
 
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We use 7.5% on all retirement calculations. Once we get closer to actual retirement and create our 3 buckets of assets, each bucket will use a different RoR metric with our long-term bucket still using 7.5%.

Likely 6%'ish for the medium bucket which will consist of 60/40 or 50/50 stocks to bonds. Our short term bucket will be fixed income, so perhaps 3%? Haven't thought of that one yet.
Only reason I am conservative on assumptions is based on market blips like we are having now. If you are down 25% on your portfolio like most people you need it to rebound by 33% just to get back to where you were (Of course this doesn't take into account DCA or additional funds being played)
 
Only reason I am conservative on assumptions is based on market blips like we are having now. If you are down 25% on your portfolio like most people you need it to rebound by 33% just to get back to where you were (Of course this doesn't take into account DCA or additional funds being played)
Looking at the average returns of the stock market, 7.5% is already conservative.
 
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Fed 3rd qtr GDP estimate SAAR is at 2.8% right now…so the official number should show a fairly strong quarter, giving the Fed the go ahead (not that an audible was really in the cards anyway) to stay on their current course. 2023 should be a much more pleasant, predictable and typical year than 2022. Of course, Putin ceasing to be able to fog a mirror and regime change in Iran would be really really yuge. Remember true patriots, the CIA is your friend.
 
Reports indicate Treasury Direct has fixed the I-Bond gift "glitch" this morning, now allowing individuals who have already reached their $10k annual purchase limits to now purchase additional I-Bonds and gift them to others including spouses. I'll try it out this evening.

Update: successfully purchased the $10k gift just moments ago (1:30 pm). So TD is functioning properly now re: I-Bond gifting.
 
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9.62% to tie up $10K is crumbs to me. But like I said I have long time horizon. If it was $100K limit would be a no-brainer.
Seems conflicted to some extent, the "tie up" comment. You may be young. And expecting a strong equities market for the next 24-months and beyond. Ok. Perhaps that plays out. But a guaranteed return of 8.06% for 12 months (9.62+6.50), as is, is pretty solid, regardless of the amount invested. Plus, chances are inflation will be elevated beyond that 12-month window, ensuring an extended nice rate of return for another 6- to 12-months. Further, if one has a sizeable, healthy, diverse portfolio, I-Bonds are typically in play, long term as part of one's bond allocation.
 
Ended up getting in on a Ibond and opening up a Etrade High Yield Savings account @ 2.75%. I originally opened up a Capitol One savings at 2.2% but Etrade had the better rate plus I already have a trading account with them.
 
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Ended up getting in on a Ibond and opening up a Etrade High Yield Savings account @ 2.75%. I originally opened up a Capitol One savings at 2.2% but Etrade had the better rate plus I already have a trading account with them.
Interesting. We use Capital One but also have a brokerage account with E-Trade.
 
Is everybody feeling good today?

17_1n_dow_chart-1-1.jpg
 
Is everybody feeling good today?

17_1n_dow_chart-1-1.jpg
I am. I am in the accumulation stage so I am buying at a better price per share.

I did not have much stock exposure going into retirement. My expectation was I would add to my stock account over time during my retirement up to a certain amount and then once I reached my investment amount decide where I would begin accumulating other funds.
 
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Interesting that Cramer suggest to sell stocks next week. I assume that he expect a fall to the next level. I don’t think he normally tell people to sell, kind of late unless he expects 3,000 level. It’s a tough time holding stocks.

I know many don’t like his recommendations but I like all input.
Very revealing Rutgersdave! LOL!
 

"This Is A F**king War": Jamie Dimon Slams Biden Energy Policy, Says Investors "Don't Give A Shit" About ESG​


Three days after Jamie Dimon sparked a marketwide selloff which sent stocks to fresh 2022 lows after he predicted a US recession in "6 to 9" months citing drivers including rising interest rates, persistent inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and warned stocks could drop another 20%, the JPMorgan CEO who is expected to report earnings tomorrow (and hopefully clarify why his bank refuses to move its deposit rate above 0.01% in the process keeping $2.2 trillion in liquidity locked inside the overnight funding facility), doubled down today saying the Fed can’t cool the red-hot economy without bringing on a recession.

“I don’t know if it could be a soft landing -- I don’t think so, but it might,” the JPMorgan chief executive officer said at an industry conference in Washington Thursday, adding that the alternatives would be a mild or a severe recession. “In a tough recession, you could expect the market to go down another 20% to 30%”, adding an additional 10% to the number he first floated on Monday.

It got worse: besides predicting a hard-landing and a 30% crash, the CEO of the largest US bank also said his “gut” tells him that the Fed funds rate will probably have to rise higher than the 4% to 4.5% level many economists are predicting, as inflation persists.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/f...audis-oil-says-investors-dont-give-shit-about
 
I am confused you posted 2 posts in a row one making fun of Biden saying the economy is strong as hell and the next where Dimon says the same

can’t cool the red-hot economy

One you seem to indicate Biden is wrong the next you want us to be swayed by Dimon's opinion
 
I am confused you posted 2 posts in a row one making fun of Biden saying the economy is strong as hell and the next where Dimon says the same

can’t cool the red-hot economy

One you seem to indicate Biden is wrong the next you want us to be swayed by Dimon's opinion
Tom1944, The stock market is a leading indicator of the direction of the economy. The Market is down 25% +, GDP is negative two quarters in a row(which up till now has been the definition of a recession), and many other indicators are pointing to a recession. The only question is how severe and how long will the recession last. If the Fed gets it right (10-20% probability) we will have a mild and relatively short recession, If the fed gets it wrong,(60-90% probability) then the recession could be severe and extended. The Biden administrations policies are directly responsible for where we are heading and it is not good any way you look at it.
BTW this relief rally we are having while feeling really good, we could be headed for lower lows so be careful. The downside in this market is not over by a long shot.
 
But both Dimon and Biden say the current economy is strong

That can be true even with a down stock market
 
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