OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Markets slightly down today after being up most of the day. From what I read, tomorrow’s CPI is not expected to be good.

Market News – MarketWatch | Morningstar

Find out what's happening in the market, today from MarketWatch by Dow Jones.

www.morningstar.com

The forecast

The cost of living is expected to climb a relatively mild 0.3% in September, partly because cheaper gasoline kept the overall price increase down.

Still, the rise in the CPI over the past year is expected to be little changed at around 8.2%. That's one of the highest annual inflation rates since 1982 and more than quadruple the annual increase in inflation in the decade before the pandemic.

Core inflation

Since food and gas prices can be quite jumpy, the Federal Reserve views the so-called core rate of inflation as a better indicator of future price trends.

The core CPI, which omits food and energy, is forecast to rise a more pronounced 0.5% in September. Such an increase would push the yearly rate of core inflation up to 6.5% from 6.3%, economists estimate, to match the sharpest core increase since 1982.

That would not be good news for investors or the economy. The core rate includes staples such as rent and housing, medical care, and car prices.

Tomorrow's CPI will give us a good read on inflation.....from 4-6 month ago! LOL. BS metric that shouldn't be used by the Fed (and those making forward-looking policy decisions).

Housing and rent prices in the CPI lag even worse.....9-12 months. In the real world today, house prices have declined in both of the past 2 months. Rent even went deflationary last month.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Nice article on Dividend ETFs:

Are Dividend ETFs Still Worth a Look?

Maybe. Managing risk is the name of the game.

www.morningstar.com

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Never heard of the "gift" option. Hopefully it starts working.

The problem resulted from Treasury Direct's recent early October website upgrades. Now, in error, if an individual has already met his/her annual $10k I-Bond limit, the site prevents that individual from "gifting" I-Bonds to others, when, in fact, the rules allow for an individual to gift up to $10k to any individual including a spouse, a child, etc. This "glitch" is apparently being worked on; in the meanwhile the deadline looms to lock into the 6-month 9.62% interest rate.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Nice article on Dividend ETFs:

Are Dividend ETFs Still Worth a Look?

Maybe. Managing risk is the name of the game.

www.morningstar.com

See SCHD and SCHY....

 

[Postman_1]

Things not looking good at Intel

Intel reportedly planning major layoffs, likely affecting thousands of jobs

The PC market is declining worldwide, and Intel has been badly affected

www.theverge.com

 

[Joey Bags]

Things not looking good at Intel

Intel reportedly planning major layoffs, likely affecting thousands of jobs

The PC market is declining worldwide, and Intel has been badly affected

www.theverge.com

Am I missing something? I thought we were in the middle of a chip shortage because demand was so high…

 

[T2Kplus20]

Am I missing something? I thought we were in the middle of a chip shortage because demand was so high…

Semi's will boom over the next 5-10 years, but Intel is the ugly duckling of the group for good reason. Just a legacy company that was late to evolve.

 

[coloradoknight]

See SCHD and SCHY....

Now you are talking. Although the timing for SCHY to start trading was certainly bad.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Am I missing something? I thought we were in the middle of a chip shortage because demand was so high…

job losses are coming and the Fed is going to exacerbate the problem by relying on outdated methods of cooling an economy. On top of that, rate changes take months to truly impact

 

[T2Kplus20]

job losses are coming and the Fed is going to exacerbate the problem by relying on outdated methods of cooling an economy. On top of that, rate changes take months to truly impact

Fed = Stupid
The only good thing is after they f up, they will need to cut rates and start QE to clean up the unnecessary mess they made.

 

[RUBlackout7]

Yeah, I’d be interested in seeing a chart on wages vs. house appreciation over last 25 years.

You don’t, it’s ugly. Crazy how people have just accepted stagnant wage growth.

Home prices are now rising much faster than incomes, studies show

During the pandemic, home prices shot up while household income fell, creating an affordability crisis.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rurahrah000]

Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.

 

[jtung230]

Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.

why? problems we are facing isn’t just in the US.

 

[RUTGERS95]

why? problems we are facing isn’t just in the US.

You seriously don't understand what the importance of his post meant.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.

Senate wont fall thank God. House and senate enough to fix many issues

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Our economy is cyclical. Recessions are a normal and expected occurrence. To blame a political party or an individual or a government entity is just patently absurd. Get over it. Plan your investments based on your needs and wants but balanced by the reality of inevitable downturns. These events happen every four years on average and last for 11 months on average. Just accept it. What goes up must come down. Fortunately our path will likely be an upward cylindrical movement.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.

Big +1
Wall Street loves divided government (and gridlock). As of now, it seems very likely that the R's flip the house.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Laughable reactions on here. You should know better. Majority R's and D's and I's make no difference.

BTW, this mornings CPI data shows continuing increases in inflation contrary to one poster's unwavering predictions.

The Fed has work to do and will do it. Invest accordingly.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Hey, one positive aspect of CPI:

Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be 8.7% in 2023, highest increase in 40 years

High inflation will prompt a record Social Security cost-of-living increase in 2023. Here's what that means for benefits.

www.cnbc.com

I believe all the contribution limits for IRAs and 401ks will go up nicely as well.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Laughable reactions on here. You should know better. Majority R's and D's and I's make no difference.

BTW, this mornings CPI data shows continuing increases in inflation contrary to one poster's unwavering predictions.

The Fed has work to do and will do it. Invest accordingly.

Yes, inflation was worse than expected.....6 months ago! LOL at people thinking CPI measures anything recent.

 

[rutgersdave]

Yes, inflation was worse than expected.....6 months ago! LOL at people thinking CPI measures anything recent.

I don’t care if it measure a couple of months ago. I care about the direction of the stock market.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don’t care if it measure a couple of months ago. I care about the direction of the stock market.

Completely agreed. I am just whining that many investors and more importantly, the Fed, are stupid for using CPI for future-focused decision making. Housing and rent literally lags 9-12 months in the CPI calculation. Think about the stupidity of that. We are reacting to data from BEFORE the Fed even started tampering.

 

[bac2therac]

Numbers were awful today

 

[RUTGERS95]

Kudlow nails on fox business with respect to energy and inflation. Must see

 

[RUTGERS95]

Numbers were awful today

Expect this, rates take time to hit economy on top of that, the employent situation is changing for worse.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Laughable reactions on here. You should know better. Majority R's and D's and I's make no difference.

BTW, this mornings CPI data shows continuing increases in inflation contrary to one poster's unwavering predictions.

The Fed has work to do and will do it. Invest accordingly.

Stupid view, dems own this now

 

[Joey Bags]

VIX says “lol, predictable”

 

[rutgersdave]

S&P moving into the 3400’s level, slowly moving in at 3,300 and increasing purchasing at 3,200-3,100 levels.

High	S&P LEVEL	Difference from high	% Decrease from high	% return to high
4,800	3,600	1,200	25.0%	33.3%
4,800	3,500	1,300	27.1%	37.1%
4,800	3,400	1,400	29.2%	41.2%
4,800	3,300	1,500	31.3%	45.5%
4,800	3,200	1,600	33.3%	50.0%
4,800	3,100	1,700	35.4%	54.8%
4,800	3,000	1,800	37.5%	60.0%
4,800	2,900	1900	39.6%	65.5%

 

[jtung230]

I sold my trading acct (150k) last week. Figure I’ll try to capture more losses for taxes. No FOMO in this market. I would sell more if I didn’t have to pay taxes.

 

[T2Kplus20]

S&P moving into the 3400’s level, slowly moving in at 3,300 and increasing purchasing at 3,200-3,100 levels.

High	S&P LEVEL	Difference from high	% Decrease from high	% return to high
4,800	3,600	1,200	25.0%	33.3%
4,800	3,500	1,300	27.1%	37.1%
4,800	3,400	1,400	29.2%	41.2%
4,800	3,300	1,500	31.3%	45.5%
4,800	3,200	1,600	33.3%	50.0%
4,800	3,100	1,700	35.4%	54.8%
4,800	3,000	1,800	37.5%	60.0%
4,800	2,900	1900	39.6%	65.5%

Nice table, thanks for posting. Watching closely for SSO opportunities. Gotta double those back to high returns!

 

[RU-Hunter]

Mortgage rates up to the highest level in 20 years (6.92%)

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Stupid view, dems own this now

Oh, yah? Well, you're view is Stoopid. LOL.

Really, political slants just cloud things. This is an overdue global event. But I get that many were swept up in the good times. And now that the party's over, many are trying to process that they've been caught and their investments are down. They'll be more parties. Learn. Adapt. Relax.

 

[rutgersdave]

Nice table, thanks for posting. Watching closely for SSO opportunities. Gotta double those back to high returns!

I’m trying to figure out the safest entry point. You know, by the time this recession bullshit happens again,you will be close to retirement. If you know the market going down, you might move assets over to cash next time.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Mortgage rates up to the highest level in 20 years (6.92%)

I thought I saw 30-year fixed on 7%?

 

[rutgersdave]

I thought I saw 30-year fixed on 7%?

Yet when I look at houses for sale, I barely see a drop in sales price. It takes time for people to adjust. That’s why the Feds is not in a hurry to pivot,

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yet when I look at houses for sale, I barely see a drop in sales price. It takes time for people to adjust. That’s why the Feds is not in a hurry to pivot,

As per the data (US aggregate), home prices have gone down the past 2 months. Down the first month 3.8%, can't remember last month. It's a start! Rent also went deflationary last month. All good signs.

 

[RU-Hunter]

Yet when I look at houses for sale, I barely see a drop in sales price. It takes time for people to adjust. That’s why the Feds is not in a hurry to pivot,

House prices are falling in certain cities such as Austin, Phoenix, others and even parts of Florida. In places that I've looked, I don't see prices coming down but I also don't see anything moving either.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’m trying to figure out the safest entry point. You know, by the time this recession bullshit happens again,you will be close to retirement. If you know the market going down, you might move assets over to cash next time.

NEVER! Well, at least not for the next 8-10 years. Around that time, we may start creating those 3 retirement buckets for our investment assets. We still have a s-ton of cash anyway (which is for other purposes).

Okay, let's start talking turkey. We are getting to the levels where I am actively thinking about serious asset reallocations. The biggest is replacing VOO or VONE with SSO. However, I have other 2x ideas in mind too.

Thoughts?

 

[rutgersdave]

NEVER! Well, at least not for the next 8-10 years. Around that time, we may start creating those 3 retirement buckets for our investment assets. We still have a s-ton of cash anyway (which is for other purposes).

Okay, let's start talking turkey. We are getting to the levels where I am actively thinking about serious asset reallocations. The biggest is replacing VOO or VONE with SSO. However, I have other 2x ideas in mind too.

Thoughts?

Wait till 3,100 level.

 

[Frida's Boss]

The risk to focus on, in my view, is the ongoing assistance provided by the Bank of England to support large pension plans exposure to rising rates. Seems many committed the sin of fund floating, invest fixed, and lever it up on top of that. There is contagion risk simmering beneath the surface.

I read a fascinating statistic on long dated gilt returns. YTD, they’ve lost 37%+. An astounding figure, and if it holds, the worst on record. To find the next two largest declines, you have to go back to 1803 (Napoleonic Wars) and then 1778. Crazy.