OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Oh no...oh no...im not giving specific advice for single name securities just in case as I'dfeel awful:) but i told you guys before all this to go to cash. Im in a cef which is down 5% but generates double digit income with my play money. once the fed is done, it will skyrocket
How do you account for the decrease in NAV during this phase? With short term Ts, at least you know you are getting your principle back plus interest.
The strike price dictates the trade. So in this instance i took a 4% premium with 7% upside in stock movement.
yes right now it looks like i should have taken less premium with more upside in stock price. But as in any trade picking tops and bottoms is, shall we say, difficult.
At the risk of making this political, with the election coming up it is very likely that the House and possibly even the senate will go to the Republicans. This would at the very least help certain sectors like health care. Anyone have favorites (outside if large cap companies) with high beta? I am looking at LABU, NVTA amongst others.
AAPL getting very close to their 52 week low, $130, nibbled and brought some today To start my position.
The best thing that can happen is to see AAPL in the low 100s. Maybe then we can call a bottom. Sorry! It’s not that I want bad things to happen, but there are consequences to bad decades-long policy.
You’re right but it’s moving in slow motion. I don’t want to see any more big up days until we hit bottom. I just read an article where the person put $163 at the buy point for MSFT, that’s a real big fall from its current price.
This is very similar to the dot.com fall. We all expect the FANGS to come back in a few years but maybe never. The other techs down 70-90% already.
It's coming! Don't be fooled. :)
Fed officials keep rate-hike pivot on the radar despite strong jobs data
Fed officials keep rate-hike pivot on the radar despite strong jobs data
Definitely true about the upcoming election. The market loves divided government. As for health care, if you want beta, look at biotech. It was crushed the past year due to the Fed and rates. Biotech overall and clinical-stage/pre-revenue companies led the way down and will lead the way up when the pivot happens.
I can't say specifics, since I am in the space, but look for leveraged indexes like LABU, which you mentioned. Regardless, it's so hard to pick winners and losers. My long-time play is PRHSX (from T Rowe) and of course, my own company stock via options and RSUs which is doing very well.
By the way, we have used NVTA for our business. They are well-known and popular, but going through serious restructuring and business model changes. There is lots of excitement around gene and cell therapy. Lots of upside potential. ARKG is not a well built ETF, but if there is a competent ETF/fund focused on gene and cell therapy, I would buy.
No it's not. Back then, 17 of the top 20 Nasdaq companies were unprofitable. Night and day different now. Big tech is making massive earnings whose products are fully integrated into everyday life. These companies will be back to ATHs within 3-4 months of the pivot.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans points toward 50 bps raises beginning in Dec with increases thru '23 to a terminal rate of 6%.
Also today, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers sees the Fed needing to increase rates to 6% or higher to bring inflation under control.
Also today, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers sees the Fed needing to increase rates to 6% or higher to bring inflation under control.
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Per Yahoo Finance, "TD Securities lifted its terminal rate forecast from a range of 4.75%-5.00% to 5.25%-5.50% and sees a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting Dec. 13-14. BNP Paribas expects a fifth 75-basis-point increase next month and a terminal fed funds level of 5.25% in the first quarter of next year."
CPI, meanwhile, is projected to be 7.9% for October.
CPI, meanwhile, is projected to be 7.9% for October.
Great news. Max fear being baked in just means a quicker rebound rally. Real inflation continues to be flat, so the awful lagging metrics will continue to tick lower (and will for the next 9-10 months even if inflation skyrockets tomorrow).
For all those keeping track, the housing data used in the upcoming October CPI metric still comes from BEFORE the Fed started raising rates in March. LOL!
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the BOE governor indicated a two-year recession is underway for the UK (high energy costs and tight money supply), with inflation peaking at 11%.
Good article on the adjusted tax rates/brackets for next year:
Big bump for the standard deduction:
Additionally, the standard deduction will rise. For married couples the bump up is $1,800 to $27,700. For single filers, it's an increase of $900 to $13,850.
Tax brackets 2024| Planning for tax cuts | Fidelity
Tax brackets and the standard deduction are adjusting upward this year, which may cut your tax bill.
www.fidelity.com
Big bump for the standard deduction:
Additionally, the standard deduction will rise. For married couples the bump up is $1,800 to $27,700. For single filers, it's an increase of $900 to $13,850.
Disney with the double miss. Down 6% in after hours:
www.cnbc.com
Disney misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper
Disney fell short of expectations for profit and key revenue segments during the fiscal fourth quarter Tuesday.
Another Cramer favorite and part of his TrustDisney with the double miss. Down 6% in after hours:
Disney misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper
Disney fell short of expectations for profit and key revenue segments during the fiscal fourth quarter Tuesday.
Very true. I don't get this one. Disney has an awful CEO who is disliked by employees and customers. He is not investing in parks which actually turn a profit, but is rather dumping money into the Disney+ blackhole.
Just when I am thinking about buying the vacation club
I would definitely buy on the resale market but my initial purchase would most likely be direct
Still looking at LABU? I'm eyeing it for a play as well. Maybe it will dip below $6 again. We shall see.
Cramer and Team not happy with Disney!
Club holding Disney (DIS): The coach must be fired. We have seen enough. CEO Bob Chapek can't even do Parks right. Direct-to-consumer too hard for him. Embarrassing. He acted as if nothing wrong. Chapek was known for being such a great operator, but we cannot give him this title after Disney's terrible quarter and guidance. Price targets cut across Wall Street, including Barclays going to $98 per share from $105.
So is Disney a sell? I’ve been taking a beating lately with some of my holdings. Disney, TakeTwo, Hail ETF. Purchased Amazon and Apple lately. Better to buy on way down then up right. I’ll probably pick up some more Apple and Amazon soon.
You can opt to build a short-term ladder: 4-week, 8-week, 13-week bills. No?
Then as the 4- and 8-week bills mature, roll them into new 13-week bills. You'll soon then have a 13-week bill maturing every month. This is sound to pursue as the rates continue to rise. And you also have the option of liquidating, or buying long-term notes/bonds should those rates be more favorable, as I suspect they will.
Remember, when held in a taxable account, these bills also escape state tax. Another plus.
Methinks we could be in for an extended flat period for equities although I expect another correction by 1Q23. So moving $ into bonds should be relatively advantageous.
That said, at the end of the day, "you pays your money and you makes your choice...."
Have been waiting to buy for a while now. Picked up Apple, Amazon and Disney today…all great buys at 52 week lows. See more downside but a good time to start building positions.
With this crypto craziness I’m sitting tight until the coast is clear. Nobody really understands how a FTX bankruptcy could rattle the markets and which counterparties are in the middle of this crap.
I think it will come in slightly better than expectations. The market will rally for a day or so and then start to sell off hard as people realize the economy is rolling over and valuations are way too high.
Agree. Will add when more downside comes but if don’t need the money short term good time to start adding some…
I would agree and don’t believe it stops the Fed from raising rates another 50 bps at the next meeting
Agree with that as well. Powell knows that inflation kept coming back in the 70's and is not going to make that mistake.
I also don't think he's accomplished his mission of crushing the Euro yet so needs to keep raising rates.
Also have to think market sells off in December for tax harvesting too. Some more pain coming but history after midterms has been mostly positive
