And then it will rally again big time due to the Fed's pivot because they singlehandedly tanked the economy and now need to bail it out. :)
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Inflation has been flat for 3 months and counting. Stop looking at woefully lagging metrics.
It doesn’t matter what I look at, as CPI is one key metric the Fed leans on. As long as employment remains strong and inflation is over 2%, they will keep raising. I do think they overshoot the rate and that will cause problems and they will scramble to fix the economy.
Did you know that the housing data from the upcoming October CPI is literally from BEFORE the Fed started rate hikes in March? Think about that stupidity for a while.
CPI is garbage and Fed officials are morons.
I know that in many parts of the country that prices are already falling and inventories building. I totally agree the Fed officials are bad. How long did they tell us inflation was “transitory”?
And why did they screw the pooch on transitionary? Also the CPI!!!!! Inflation was sky high in 2021, but CPI lags 6-9 months so it didn't show up in the data. Now with inflation much lower, the CPI is incorrect telling the Fed it's still high. They are making the same mistake, just from the reverse POV. It would be hysterical to see a group of people be so dumb, but these morons impact the economy.
Housing is 40% of Core CPI. Instead of using the lagging housing data they used the real time Case Shiller data, MoM Core CPI would have been negative for the past 2 months.
The market will figure this all out and rally months before the Fed does.
Can you source your claim? The CPI housing data appears to track a 12-month view.
The following is from the Bureau of Labor and Stats...
Consumer prices for shelter up 6.6 percent for year ended September 2022
OCTOBER 19, 2022The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 8.2 percent for the year ended September 2022, following a rise of 8.3 percent from August 2021 to August 2022. Consumer prices for all items less food and energy rose 6.6 percent over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since August 1982. Prices for shelter also rose 6.6 percent from September 2021 to September 2022, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/c...6-6-percent-for-year-ended-september-2022.htm
Your statement is incorrect. Give me a primary source. Not a talking head.
My statement is correct. You cited CPI data, not the raw housing data. And that talking head is a finance professor from Wharton who was one of the very few people right about inflation and the Fed in 2021.
I was right about inflation and the Fed in 2021 but you don't listen to me. 😀
Are you saying inflation from 2020 did not get reported until 2021?
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Yes, that is true to some extend due to the 6-9 month lag in the data. Some of the super low inflation of 2020 was reported in 2021 and the super high inflation of 2021 and early 2022 is still being reported now. Overall, CPI does a reasonably good job of telling what inflation was, but it clearly does an awful job with telling what inflation is and where it is going.
Using lagging metrics (CPI) to make forward looking decisions (interest rates) is truly ridiculous. This is like driving a car by only looking in the rear-view mirror. One of the functions that I lead at work is forecasting. If I did what the Fed does, I would have been fired a long time ago.
So all the political handwringing about the 2021 president creating inflation was in fact wrong because the president in office in 2020 would be to blame if anyone actually wanted to blame inflation on a president
Do you make this case to all your friends of the current events board?
I think you are confused. Real inflation was very low, even negative at times in 2020. Conversely, inflation was sky high in 2021 and early 2022. As such, the spike in inflation came after the new president started in Jan 2021.
#WOW
Lagging CPI finally starting to show that inflation has tanked over the past 6 months:
www.cnbc.com
Small step in the right direction. Real-time inflation has been flat to negative in most areas of the economy.
Too all the bears out there (you know who you are) - the math is baked for CPI/PPI over the next 6-9 months. These metrics are wonky, but once the bow breaks (maybe this month or next month), they will plummet due to the math catching up with reality and the base comparator data skyrocketing, which increases the size of the denominator. Just a friendly heads up.
Lagging CPI finally starting to show that inflation has tanked over the past 6 months:
Dow pops 1,200 points, S&P 500 jumps 5% in biggest rally in two years after light inflation report
October's CPI data came in lighter than expected, raising hopes of peaking inflation.
Small step in the right direction. Real-time inflation has been flat to negative in most areas of the economy.
Too all the bears out there (you know who you are) - the math is baked for CPI/PPI over the next 6-9 months. These metrics are wonky, but once the bow breaks (maybe this month or next month), they will plummet due to the math catching up with reality and the base comparator data skyrocketing, which increases the size of the denominator. Just a friendly heads up.
But it started based on measurements and actions from 2020 according to what you wrote. They measured 2021 inflation based on 2020. Lagging indicators
80s has been an area that has held in the past, including the pandemic. It's there now, we'll see if it holds again.Disney with the double miss. Down 6% in after hours:
Disney misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper
Disney fell short of expectations for profit and key revenue segments during the fiscal fourth quarter Tuesday.
2021 CPI inflation was mostly fine until the second half of the year and artificially low due to the lag. So initially, Biden benefited from Trump's low inflation (to say it directly) even though real-time inflation was skyrocketing.
Okay, back to the markets.
I think this 3900 area..maybe up to 4000 will be some resistance. Has been a great rally though.
"Tanked," ay? You kinda missed the mark. "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October reflected a 7.7% increase over last year and 0.4% increase over the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday."#WOW
Lagging CPI finally starting to show that inflation has tanked over the past 6 months:
Dow pops 1,200 points, S&P 500 jumps 5% in biggest rally in two years after light inflation report
October's CPI data came in lighter than expected, raising hopes of peaking inflation.
Small step in the right direction. Real-time inflation has been flat to negative in most areas of the economy.
Too all the bears out there (you know who you are) - the math is baked for CPI/PPI over the next 6-9 months. These metrics are wonky, but once the bow breaks (maybe this month or next month), they will plummet due to the math catching up with reality and the base comparator data skyrocketing, which increases the size of the denominator. Just a friendly heads up.
True, that inflation has slowed vs the prior upward rise but it's still rising, nonetheless. It'll take a bit for "the market" to digest this. The wild swing up will swing down.
Hoping all this clears the deck sooner than later. But I think we're in for an extended period of market woes, as "traders" adjust their strategies. "Investors," however, may be well ahead of the curve in this regard.
Ain't going to be any resistance if next month's Nov CPI also comes in light and the "trend" begins.
You're a funny guy. I deal with reality. It doesn't upset me. Hoping for better days ahead. But, again, we'll likely have to get thru a rough patch first.
Which is fine. 50 is baked in. Its beyond that where we lack clarity. And this number suggests that the fed will not have to be as aggressive, maybe even pause, beyond that.
I don’t foresee a hard sell off in the upcoming weeks.
I could see it stay within the 3500-4100 range though. Up to the 200 day and then sell off a bit there.
I wouldn’t be shocked. For all their hawkish talk they know their are plenty of lagging inputs. There has definitely been some jawboning imo.
conversely i doubt they pivot just yet as they don’t want to see inflation kick back up(see current gas prices).
but a pause and a wait and see? That makes sense.
In my mind:
Pivot = Pause (as in, stop raising rates)
U-Turn = Start cutting rates
One more good CPI month and we will get a formal pivot. U-Turn will come later in 2023.
Fear not. The big days from early in the covid rebound were followed by an 18 month run.
