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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

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Very good article. I think you and I discussed many of these points in the past; a great innovation by Vanguard. As mentioned in the article, the patent expires this year.
I would love to have more fund/etf options available. We have Vanguard Value in 4 accounts (2 retirement, 1 brokerage, and our 529). We use the fund version for 2 and the etf version for the other two.
 
BOIL is a very small play. If I add a little today, it will be at 50% of what I am comfortable with. The other 50% will only be added if there is a substantial drop from here.

Also, we have a little AR for another nat gas play (via our managed backdoor Roth IRA accounts).

So what exactly is a backdoor Roth IRA? I recently got into SCHD and VIG and in doing some reading some people say that people purchase these for IRA's. I don't think I qualify for a Roth IRA but is there an advantage of setting up a traditional IRA? Both investments our more then likely long term hold for me as I may even add to them. Could I go traditional IRA to a backdoor one? My understanding is that with IRA's I wouldn't pay taxes on the dividend gains. Not sure if this is correct or not.
 
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So what exactly is a backdoor Roth IRA? I recently got into SCHA and VIG and in doing some reading some people say that people purchase these for IRA's. I don't think I qualify for a Roth IRA but is there an advantage of setting up a traditional IRA? Both investments our more then likely long term hold for me as I may even add to them. Could I go traditional IRA to a backdoor one? My understanding is that with IRA's I wouldn't pay taxes on the dividend gains. Not sure if this is correct or not.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/... advisors suggest another,funds to a Roth IRA.
 
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So what exactly is a backdoor Roth IRA? I recently got into SCHA and VIG and in doing some reading some people say that people purchase these for IRA's. I don't think I qualify for a Roth IRA but is there an advantage of setting up a traditional IRA? Both investments our more then likely long term hold for me as I may even add to them. Could I go traditional IRA to a backdoor one? My understanding is that with IRA's I wouldn't pay taxes on the dividend gains. Not sure if this is correct or not.
The Backdoor Roth is the 100% legal way to get around the income limit for Roth IRAs. My wife and I have been using these since the law was passed (during the GWB admin). The basic premise is that even though directly contributing to a Roth IRA has income limits, doing a Roth Conversion has no limit!

Behold the power of the Backdoor:

 
The Backdoor Roth is the 100% legal way to get around the income limit for Roth IRAs. My wife and I have been using these since the law was passed (during the GWB admin). The basic premise is that even though directly contributing to a Roth IRA has income limits, doing a Roth Conversion has no limit!

Behold the power of the Backdoor:

It sounds kinda easy. Just open a traditional IRA then convert it to a Roth it says. I use Etrade not sure if I can do this through them or not? I see there are limits on what people can put into IRA's $6000 a year. Does this mean every year you have to open a new IRA because of the limit? Apologies for all the questions as I am trying to learn the process.
 
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It sounds kinda easy. Just open a traditional IRA then convert it to a Roth it says. I use Etrade not sure if I can do this through them or not? I see there are limits on what people can put into IRA's $6000 a year. Does this mean every year you have to open a new IRA because of the limit? Apologies for all the questions as I am trying to learn the process.
The IRA contribution limit is now $6,500 a year (per person). $7,500 if you turn 50 this year or older. I never did the paperwork via E-Trade. I'm sure you can do it. You don't need to open a new Roth IRA every year. We have been using the same account since we began (one for me and one for my wife).

I'm sure E-Trade customer service can walk you through it.

Also, no worries about the questions. That's what this thread is for! :)
 
The data from philly fed doesnt look great for the economy. So much kinda bad data when you dig. But surface data looks good for economy. Its odd


 
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Is TGT a short? It’s gotten way ahead of WMT from a chart perspective and WMT issued cautious guidance.

TGT earnings on the 28th.
 
The data from philly fed doesnt look great for the economy. So much kinda bad data when you dig. But surface data looks good for economy. Its odd


The economy is rolling along fine. You are seeing companies sandbag on forecasts so they can beat the next Q. This was the norm prior to COVID.

Gotta buy all meaningful dips moving forward. This is likely the last gasp for the bears and their inflation narrative. We all see the data and those educated understand where the math is heading. Enjoy! :)
 
Is TGT a short? It’s gotten way ahead of WMT from a chart perspective and WMT issued cautious guidance.

TGT earnings on the 28th.
Well you’d think WMT and HD won’t portend strong guidance and/or earnings for TGT, LOW and maybe COST too.
 
Well you’d think WMT and HD won’t portend strong guidance and/or earnings for TGT, LOW and maybe COST too.
Be careful. That hasn’t been the case the last few quarters (as in, all reporting similar earnings). Also, expectations have been lowered now.
 
Be careful. That hasn’t been the case the last few quarters (as in, all reporting similar earnings). Also, expectations have been lowered now.
If there’s a cut in discretionary spending, TGT is more likely to feel it than WMT. IIRC WMT has quite a bit higher percentage of revenue from groceries than TGT which is somewhat helpful.

HD has been a strong retail name for years so if they’re having issues I find it hard to believe LOW won’t be as well.

The two ends of the barbell might weather things a bit better possibly. Dollar stores for people downgrading and slightly higher end because people can withstand the inflation pressures a little better like say COST. I wouldn’t bank on it though. I think a lot of retail sector will be under pressure but we’ll see.
 

Consumer debt now at highest rate since the Great Recession, hitting $16.9 trillion. Loan delinquencies rising. Not a good sign for what's ahead. '23 will prove to be a very tough year. Fed terminal rate likely to hit 6% and stay there into '24.

 
I'm not taking sides..... tho I remain cautious (tho always optimistic of the long-run)...

it is a curious time....

 

Consumer debt now at highest rate since the Great Recession, hitting $16.9 trillion. Loan delinquencies rising. Not a good sign for what's ahead. '23 will prove to be a very tough year. Fed terminal rate likely to hit 6% and stay there into '24.

Debt is only bad if it is no longer being serviced. For home loan delinquencies you'd have to figure out if this is a byproduct of the tremendous volume in home sale transactions the last 3 years or something else. If delinquencies rose proportionally to the volume of home sales, it's statistically insignificant. If delinquency volume is outpacing sale volume, it would be statistically significant.
 
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Debt is only bad if it is no longer being serviced. For home loan delinquencies you'd have to figure out if this is a byproduct of the tremendous volume in home sale transactions the last 3 years or something else. If delinquencies rose proportionally to the volume of home sales, it's statistically insignificant. If delinquency volume is outpacing sale volume, it would be statistically significant.
Generally, seems to be a big bifurcation in economic class...... upper incomes still sitting on epic levels of pandemic savings...... lower income have burned through it.. and are loading-up on debt...

none of that is unusual in itself... but the magnitude of the delta is historic....

some say disinflation has hit...... others disagree. If the latter is true, we ain't done with the pain...
 
BTC, what’s more likely -20% or up + 20% from here? What are your thots? Now, $24,6xx.
 
Generally, seems to be a big bifurcation in economic class...... upper incomes still sitting on epic levels of pandemic savings...... lower income have burned through it.. and are loading-up on debt...

none of that is unusual in itself... but the magnitude of the delta is historic....

some say disinflation has hit...... others disagree. If the latter is true, we ain't done with the pain...
Disinflation is here and baked into the next 5-6 upcoming CPI prints. Housing went deflationary 4-5 months ago, but the lag in CPI housing data is brutal. Learn the math.
 
Debt is only bad if it is no longer being serviced. For home loan delinquencies you'd have to figure out if this is a byproduct of the tremendous volume in home sale transactions the last 3 years or something else. If delinquencies rose proportionally to the volume of home sales, it's statistically insignificant. If delinquency volume is outpacing sale volume, it would be statistically significant.
home loan delinquencies set a record for all time lows to end 2022
 
Disinflation is here and baked into the next 5-6 upcoming CPI prints. Housing went deflationary 4-5 months ago, but the lag in CPI housing data is brutal. Learn the math.
OER is going to take a baseball bat to inflations knees over the next 12 months
 
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OER is going to take a baseball bat to inflations knees over the next 12 months
+1 - Massive baseball ball. Housing/rent is the only thing holding MoM CPI up. The lag is 9-12 months and we are 5-6 months into the math. Plan accordingly!

And for a frame of reference, housing/rent makes up 30-40% of CPI (headline and core).
 
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So what exactly is a backdoor Roth IRA? I recently got into SCHA and VIG and in doing some reading some people say that people purchase these for IRA's. I don't think I qualify for a Roth IRA but is there an advantage of setting up a traditional IRA? Both investments our more then likely long term hold for me as I may even add to them. Could I go traditional IRA to a backdoor one? My understanding is that with IRA's I wouldn't pay taxes on the dividend gains. Not sure if this is correct or not.

Lots of good info from other posters who answered you, here is another good summary.


 
Disinflation is here and baked into the next 5-6 upcoming CPI prints. Housing went deflationary 4-5 months ago, but the lag in CPI housing data is brutal. Learn the math.
don't worry, I'll be here in June.

and you can declare how right you were......

just so we're clear -- CPI will be 2% or less at that point, right?
 
don't worry, I'll be here in June.

and you can declare how right you were......
FYI - great chart to think about. Shelter has been negative for 4-5 months. When will it show up in the CPI math? I just told you.

Shelter inflation = the last mathematical shoe to drop. Plan accordingly! :)

Fo7wreTaAAAgY4U
 
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