the market may continue to run or not. I LOVE up markets.... but.
Im not trying to say inflation is dead. Your chart definitely shows how its a mixed bag though, and starting in feb things like fuel oil and energy should go negative.
As per Liz Young's chart that KYK posted, practically 100% of MoM inflation is housing/shelter which is only present due to the massive lag in that metric. We all see where the math is heading - both MoM and YoY.
But the market has fought the fed for the past 6 weeks.You cannot fight the Fed short term.
The market is pricing in 75 to 100 basis points in rate hike between now and July. Use this link as a interesting tool:
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.www.cmegroup.com
Have you followed the bond market recently? They are not fighting the Fed.
Fought the Fed and won! The tape is stronger than the Fed. The market figures out the data quicker than the Fed (whether the data is good or bad). Pretty simple principle that happens all the time.
Generally you shouldn’t. The S&P500 is down -5% since the start of rate hikes 11 months ago. Bond funds are down more. Most institutional money managers make portfolio adjustments in a rate increase environment. Broad market equity and bond funds have struggled in the last 11 months.
They announce earnings next Thursday and will likely state the dividend. I don't think there will be a lot of time between announcing the dividend and going ex-div. I added to my position today.
Disagree about broad indexes. Now is a great time for buying since they are at a discount. One thing is certain, all broad market indexes will hit ATHs again whether next month, next year, or a few years from now. That's how the market has worked for 100+ years. This is why I love leveraged plays of broad indexes. If you are patient, they are a sure way to maximize rebound rallies.
Will likely add a little to BOIL by the bell. That's a wild one. LOL!
Just be careful. I kept chasing nat gas, dug myself a hole and never got out with a profit.
BOIL is a very small play. If I add a little today, it will be at 50% of what I am comfortable with. The other 50% will only be added if there is a substantial drop from here.
Interesting points on institutional funds rolling in as implied vol and real vol drops, and on the short squeeze chart. Thanks for posting!
Some people work in finance and talk about positions that they have taken with their firm's capital. What I do for work is in amounts about 100x of what I do for myself. Kind of bragging in many ways. If it hits, the firm will pay you a nice sum in bonus, but the firm realizes the vast majority of the gain. Almost certain that is the case here. I apologize if I'm wrong but doubt it will be necessary.
eh, still kinda are...
In 2 weeks 5 yrs goes from 3.49% to 4.06% and 10 yr goes from 3.39% to 3.86%. Not to mentioned the 2 v 10 inversion also got steeper. But everyone is fighting the Fed.
actually, this moment... it's 4.04-- and dropped today.
Dip buyers fought back this afternoon, 10y dropped to 3.81%. We all see the data. Fight the Fed!
I guess a lot of people gave up the fight the last 2 weeks. Somber eye
and came back to where the market already was in December. that's NOT capitulation...
Actually, duration is more important. I find 6.5% - 8% paper but no call protection. Rates go down, I’m back to 3.5% to 5% on same credit.
In a sign of the apocalypse, we actually have a brewery that looks to be closing in AVL. Of course, 3 new ones are opening. But, this is a rare occurrence.
Pretty sure I saw a long term new issue CD this week over 5%. but, callable starting in 2 years. 12nto 18 month treasuries at 5% too. How long are you going out and what type of credit quality?
JPM was first out of the gate with 5-5.1% CD (1-3yrs) callable as far back as Oct. Rates dropped-but have inched back up to 5.0-5.05% again.. as you note..these are callable - I wouldn't go out too far on those (18-24mos).
Bought NJ muni, 5% coupon callable in 2030. That’s tax eq yield of 8%. Bought at a slight discount. Trading close to 104.
Asheville? If so, yes. Asheville is a different economic animal. Lots of discretionary $$$ from transplanted yanks, and lots of businesses chasing those $$$. I was visiting there a few weeks ago, not having been there in two decades. Hardly recognized it.
Been here since 2005. It has changed alot. Some for the better, some for the worse.
