OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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You’ll have your share of positive days. But the trend will be down. Just watch the rates. If 5 yr goes to 3.5% again, maybe the market is recovering
Waller (unlike Bostic) is a Fed Voter and he just said "if Data Comes in Hot, May Need to Raise Rates Even More"
Even more means an extra 0.25% hike down the road. Slow and steady by the Fed. They understand the data.
Winners of the Q4 earnings season:
www.morningstar.com
3 Stock Sectors With Big Fair Value Estimate Increases After Q4 Earnings
Basic materials, industrials, and technology stocks saw significant valuation boosts.
Are they cutting more costs? Wonder if this pause becomes permanent
www.cnbc.com
Amazon pauses construction of second headquarters in Virginia
Amazon is pausing construction of parts of its second headquarters, dubbed HQ2, in Virginia, the company confirmed.
Probably. They’re cutting employees and with hybrid workforce, they may want to reduce the footprint of their second HQ. They probably won’t do the 2nd phase at all.Are they cutting more costs? Wonder if this pause becomes permanent
Amazon pauses construction of second headquarters in Virginia
Amazon is pausing construction of parts of its second headquarters, dubbed HQ2, in Virginia, the company confirmed.
I remember when Newark/Harrison was a finalist for this HQ2. Sad that it didn’t happen
They should focus on efficient spending and profitability. Also, need to trim the fat more on the bloated workforce. This is the message the market is sending to everyone.Are they cutting more costs? Wonder if this pause becomes permanent
Amazon pauses construction of second headquarters in Virginia
Amazon is pausing construction of parts of its second headquarters, dubbed HQ2, in Virginia, the company confirmed.
And now, when they've gone elsewhere, Murphy lets the large corporation surtax expire.
Hey, we lend to ChampionX. JPM deal. Doing well. thanks for posting!
For the stock market, it doesn't matter. Stock prices bottom 9-10 months before earnings bottom (did so in 2009, 2018, and 2020). The market is forward looking.
Also, earnings and prices are not as correlated as people think. After the Volker bear market ended in 1983, the market was up 230% for the rest of the decade, but earnings were up only 8% during the same time.
Tom L understands that his rosy outlook is dependent on a weak dollar and on lower yields. Got it.
Tom L. Also acknowledged that Higher yields make financing operations (for industrial and tech) more expensive, which would be problematic. I agree with all these points.
Tom L. Also acknowledged that Higher yields make financing operations (for industrial and tech) more expensive, which would be problematic. I agree with all these points.
So higher stock market depends on weak dollar and lower yields. Fed will only lower the yield when inflation is below 2%. In my opinion inflation will only go down if unemployment rises. So I would keep a close eye at employment numbers as a first sign of bond market recovery.
Right. Eyes on TLT and DXY to keep it simple. Now, if no Fed cut in ‘23 then expect a revision of earning estimates for ‘24. Revisions down will make stocks too expensive.
Now, I wouldn't be surprised in S&P stays in this 3800-4200 bracket for quite some time. On a break of either side, we reasses.
Now, I wouldn't be surprised in S&P stays in this 3800-4200 bracket for quite some time. On a break of either side, we reasses.
Unemployment isn't going anywhere (due to the people shortage) and inflation will be sub-3% by the summer. Shelter math will be catching up soon.
I am not sure if inflation will go down with low unemployment. People will keep spending/borrowing as long as they have jobs. If people keep spending, then prices will continue to rise. But, we will see how the next few months turns out.
So I was reading last night and found out I man not be able to fund a Roth without being taxed. This is because of the Pro-Rata Rule.
www.forbes.com
Over 20 years ago I rolled over some money from a previous job into a IRA/Annuity fund through my bank. This account is now through Nationwide. I am in the process of pulling it from there because it's costing me about 2.5% in fees to keep it in there. Also what it is invested in is not so great. I guess this counts as a traditional IRA for me? If I open a Roth and fund it then I would be subject to this Pro-Rata Rule. Luckily I did not fund my Roth yet through Fidelity on the traditional I opened. Do any of you guys run into this problem if you have a traditional and then fund a Roth? Are there any ways around it?
Backdoor Roth Conversions And The Pro Rata Rule Caveat
In this article we will evaluate some of the things you should know before converting, including the often overlooked pro-rata rule.
www.forbes.com
Over 20 years ago I rolled over some money from a previous job into a IRA/Annuity fund through my bank. This account is now through Nationwide. I am in the process of pulling it from there because it's costing me about 2.5% in fees to keep it in there. Also what it is invested in is not so great. I guess this counts as a traditional IRA for me? If I open a Roth and fund it then I would be subject to this Pro-Rata Rule. Luckily I did not fund my Roth yet through Fidelity on the traditional I opened. Do any of you guys run into this problem if you have a traditional and then fund a Roth? Are there any ways around it?
You should seek the advice of a CPA in your area. I realize this is likely what you don't want to hear. But making such decisions on the advice of a poster or three from a sports message board is problematic.So I was reading last night and found out I man not be able to fund a Roth without being taxed. This is because of the Pro-Rata Rule.
Backdoor Roth Conversions And The Pro Rata Rule Caveat
In this article we will evaluate some of the things you should know before converting, including the often overlooked pro-rata rule.
Over 20 years ago I rolled over some money from a previous job into a IRA/Annuity fund through my bank. This account is now through Nationwide. I am in the process of pulling it from there because it's costing me about 2.5% in fees to keep it in there. Also what it is invested in is not so great. I guess this counts as a traditional IRA for me? If I open a Roth and fund it then I would be subject to this Pro-Rata Rule. Luckily I did not fund my Roth yet through Fidelity on the traditional I opened. Do any of you guys run into this problem if you have a traditional and then fund a Roth? Are there any ways around it?
Anyone in the country (even Elon Musk or Peter Thiel) with earned income can contribute $6,500 to a backdoor Roth IRA in 2023. And up to the contribution limit in future years. Using a non-deductible IRA account is required so you are using after tax money.So I was reading last night and found out I man not be able to fund a Roth without being taxed. This is because of the Pro-Rata Rule.
Backdoor Roth Conversions And The Pro Rata Rule Caveat
In this article we will evaluate some of the things you should know before converting, including the often overlooked pro-rata rule.
Over 20 years ago I rolled over some money from a previous job into a IRA/Annuity fund through my bank. This account is now through Nationwide. I am in the process of pulling it from there because it's costing me about 2.5% in fees to keep it in there. Also what it is invested in is not so great. I guess this counts as a traditional IRA for me? If I open a Roth and fund it then I would be subject to this Pro-Rata Rule. Luckily I did not fund my Roth yet through Fidelity on the traditional I opened. Do any of you guys run into this problem if you have a traditional and then fund a Roth? Are there any ways around it?
As mentioned above, definitely double check with Fidelity or your advisor. Obviously, not sure of your exact situation.
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I reached out to one last week in my area they wanted $250 a hour and said most likely 6 hours. No way am I paying that. We get our taxes done this Wednesday. I will be asking a bunch of questions.
Yeah it's a bit confusing. When I talk with the people at Fidelity they are helpful but careful not to give any advice on taxes to cover themselves. Getting our taxes one this Wednesday will be asking them. All's I wanted to do was just backdoor into a Roth. I just read this and it makes it sound like there is no way of avoiding taxes if a Roth is opened. Hopefully after talking to my tax guy on Wed it will be cleared up. Thanks for the feedback.
The Pro-Rata Rule Explained – You are NOT Getting Double Taxed | Ed Slott and Company, LLC
SCENARIO: Teddy, age 60, has an existing Traditional IRA with a current balance of $93,000. This is all deductible, pre-tax money. Teddy would like to contribute to a Roth IRA, but his income level exceeds the Roth IRA income threshold. To skirt this problem, Teddy makes a 2021 $7,000...
Okay, I think Charles Schwab explains this situation:I reached out to one last week in my area they wanted $250 a hour and said most likely 6 hours. No way am I paying that. We get our taxes done this Wednesday. I will be asking a bunch of questions.
Yeah it's a bit confusing. When I talk with the people at Fidelity they are helpful but careful not to give any advice on taxes to cover themselves. Getting our taxes one this Wednesday will be asking them. All's I wanted to do was just backdoor into a Roth. I just read this and it makes it sound like there is no way of avoiding taxes if a Roth is opened. Hopefully after talking to my tax guy on Wed it will be cleared up. Thanks for the feedback.
The Pro-Rata Rule Explained – You are NOT Getting Double Taxed | Ed Slott and Company, LLC
SCENARIO: Teddy, age 60, has an existing Traditional IRA with a current balance of $93,000. This is all deductible, pre-tax money. Teddy would like to contribute to a Roth IRA, but his income level exceeds the Roth IRA income threshold. To skirt this problem, Teddy makes a 2021 $7,000...www.irahelp.com
"Note: If your 401(k) allows you to "roll in" an IRA account, as some do, you can essentially take your existing IRA out of the conversion calculation."
Charles Schwab
www.schwab.com
So, pro-rata doesn't include rollover IRA accounts from workplace 401ks or 403bs. LOL! Nuanced and confusing!
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Great thanks. That is what I did, I did a rollover from my first job out of high school into this. Also added some more $ via a rollover in 2008. Good info to know!
The pro rata rule sounds like an account that has both after tax money and pre tax money in your IRA or 401K and it determines the % that can be moved to a Roth account since only the pre tax will be taxed.I reached out to one last week in my area they wanted $250 a hour and said most likely 6 hours. No way am I paying that. We get our taxes done this Wednesday. I will be asking a bunch of questions.
Yeah it's a bit confusing. When I talk with the people at Fidelity they are helpful but careful not to give any advice on taxes to cover themselves. Getting our taxes one this Wednesday will be asking them. All's I wanted to do was just backdoor into a Roth. I just read this and it makes it sound like there is no way of avoiding taxes if a Roth is opened. Hopefully after talking to my tax guy on Wed it will be cleared up. Thanks for the feedback.
The Pro-Rata Rule Explained – You are NOT Getting Double Taxed | Ed Slott and Company, LLC
SCENARIO: Teddy, age 60, has an existing Traditional IRA with a current balance of $93,000. This is all deductible, pre-tax money. Teddy would like to contribute to a Roth IRA, but his income level exceeds the Roth IRA income threshold. To skirt this problem, Teddy makes a 2021 $7,000...
In the majority of IRA, the dollars are pre taxed so any money moved to a Roth account is considered taxable at your ordinary income tax rate. No way around it. You might be in a situation where your tax rate is currently low and it makes sense to convert. I started to move my IRA over to Roth before taking social security and when my tax rate was lower. I’ve been moving it for over 10 years and will continue for the next 15 years.
The U.S. Stock Market Is Undervalued, but It Looks Like a Rough Road Ahead
Key takeaways from our March 2023 outlook.
All styles and sizes looking good, especially small caps. My UWM play is up about 25% with a long way to run:
All sectors undervalued, except energy. Defensive sectors close to fair market value:
But do you now understand how the shelter math works? You used to think it was the price of homes and thought that the decrease in home prices would directly affect the inflation indexes.
Yes, CPI Shelter has an awful lag versus reality, about 12 months. We are 8-9 months into this lag, so look for CPI Shelter to turn negative soon as it catches up with real-time data. Multiple Fed members, including Powell have cited this CPI program in recent months.
The market knows this and is forward looking, so plan accordingly!
Yeah….you were citing the Case Shiller Home Price indices as the real-time data input. Home prices are not an input into the inflation indices. You were wrong.
