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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I graduated RU in 1994 and worked as a buy side equity trader from 1994-2008 and have been in wealth management since.

Whenever things don’t make much sense to me I go to less than 50% long. I luckily did it in 2000 and 2006 and I did it again at the start of this month. I missed the top and the bottom the last two times but still reentered the market at a much lower price than where I exited. I wish that I legged out a year ago but FOMO ….

To each their own.
2008/2009, 2018, and 2020 taught me to keep buying and take advantage of all corrections/crashes. The worse buying feels, the better you will do in the long run. The vast majority of people that tried to "time" the bottom in 2008/2009 and 2020 missed out big time (including many in the thread).
 
Two stocks that i was put into and am now down 10ish% look like they might be in a good spot technically


STNE is the epitome of trading within a range over the last year and is currently near the low end of that range.

And PLTR looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders.

Sold more puts on each so perhaps dca’ing lower.
Selling puts? If you like those stocks, how about simply buying more shares? :)
 
Two stocks that i was put into and am now down 10ish% look like they might be in a good spot technically


STNE is the epitome of trading within a range over the last year and is currently near the low end of that range.

And PLTR looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders.

Sold more puts on each so perhaps dca’ing lower.
I like the technical set up for PLTR. They are a buzzy company that reportedly turned in a positive quarter. Looks like a good short term solution play. Long term, they have all of their contracts renewing in the next yr and a half.
 
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2008/2009, 2018, and 2020 taught me to keep buying and take advantage of all corrections/crashes. The worse buying feels, the better you will do in the long run. The vast majority of people that tried to "time" the bottom in 2008/2009 and 2020 missed out big time (including many in the thread).
agree on all counts except me:) you can never pick the top or bottom but you want to be in before the change
 
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Brought some JNJ and UNH this morning. JNJ @ 52 week low and UNH about 20% below high. Brought BMY recently. Any reasons the pharmaceutical and medical companies down so much?
 
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Brought some JNJ and UNH this morning. JNJ @ 52 week low and UNH about 20% below high. Brought BMY recently. Any reasons the pharmaceutical and medical companies down so much?
Just a rotation out of defensive, nothing more. UNH is a great long hold. JNJ should be stronger after the split. The best pharma/HC play is PRHSX. Insurance companies are fine, but it is very dangerous to hold individual pharma/biotech, even the big boys (due to the nature of the business and regulatory process).
 
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Just a rotation out of defensive, nothing more. UNH is a great long hold. JNJ should be stronger after the split. The best pharma/HC play is PRHSX. Insurance companies are fine, but it is very dangerous to hold individual pharma/biotech, even the big boys (due to the nature of the business and regulatory process).
IYH - iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF
 
Brought both IYH and PRHSX. IYH has several stocks that I have already and PRHSX for the biotech play. They might go lower but will buy more.
In retirement, I tend to avoid individual stocks, more and more, even in my "fun" account. ETFs are best, at this point, even in that fun account. As I've indicated before, there comes a time (in retirement) when you're fortunate to be financially "set," and the potential upside offered by finding a "ten bagger" just isn't really a big deal. I do still like the intellectual challenge of identifying those potential gainers, but don't feel the need to buy. In earlier times, I really enjoyed thoroughbred horse racing and wagering. Over the last decade or so, the wagering aspect lost its appeal. Still love the game. But I hate losing $100 much more than I enjoy winning $1000. I guess that comes with age.
 
In retirement, I tend to avoid individual stocks, more and more, even in my "fun" account. ETFs are best, at this point, even in that fun account. As I've indicated before, there comes a time (in retirement) when you're fortunate to be financially "set," and the potential upside offered by finding a "ten bagger" just isn't really a big deal. I do still like the intellectual challenge of identifying those potential gainers, but don't feel the need to buy. In earlier times, I really enjoyed thoroughbred horse racing and wagering. Over the last decade or so, the wagering aspect lost its appeal. Still love the game. But I hate losing $100 much more than I enjoy winning $1000. I guess that comes with age.
That’s how I feel about the poker table. I don’t like to lose now and don’t get much enjoyment as I use to. I’m trading less and planning to keep at least 50% of assets in CD Treasuries when it over 5% interest. I might be buying more ETF than stocks but have been planning to give money away to relatives thru custodian accounts.
 
That’s how I feel about the poker table. I don’t like to lose now and don’t get much enjoyment as I use to. I’m trading less and planning to keep at least 50% of assets in CD Treasuries when it over 5% interest. I might be buying more ETF than stocks but have been planning to give money away to relatives thru custodian accounts.
Oh Dave, you gotta love the game for the game....
Sure money is how we keep score... but, as long as you are playing good poker and playing the hands right - you can't be mad at short-term variance. Sure, suck-outs and bad-beats hurt -- but that pain is good... it makes you study your game - and think what you could/should do differently... never get too high on the $ wins or low on the losses... :)

Also.. give some thought to Treasuries over CDs. Not that there isn't "some" market for re-sale of some CDs, but it's pretty illiquid (what does exist)... the spreads Treasuries vs. CDs these days and the liquidity of Treasuries are making them more and more compelling...
 
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Silvergate taking it on the chin. Down almost 50% today.


Delayed earnings. Down 30% overnight. This has been a slow motion train wreck. Can't believe anyone was buying it with all the news that's been out the last few months.

 
Delayed earnings. Down 30% overnight. This has been a slow motion train wreck. Can't believe anyone was buying it with all the news that's been out the last few months.

Makes sense that FTX triggered a run. I believe Silvergate is a "good actor", but I wouldn't trust anyone in that space, even those trying to do the right thing.
 
Makes sense that FTX triggered a run. I believe Silvergate is a "good actor", but I wouldn't trust anyone in that space, even those trying to do the right thing.

Silvergate is not a good actor. They were blatantly violating know your customer rules, anti money laundering rules, and other things. I think they will be arrested.
 
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Silvergate is not a good actor. They were blatantly violating know your customer rules, anti money laundering rules, and other things. I think they will be arrested.
Haven't looked into the details of today, but a few months ago SI got crushed due to earnings and a few people spoke about them on CNBC. They are actually a traditional bank that decided to support the growing crypto market. Supposedly, they ran their operation on the up and up, at least from a balance sheet POV. Perhaps there was some shady stuff behind the scenes?

Anyway, I really would like to see Binance go under as I believe they are the last large bad actor in the space. It would cause a lot of collateral damage, but the crypto market would be better off in the long run.
 
Silvergate is not a good actor. They were blatantly violating know your customer rules, anti money laundering rules, and other things. I think they will be arrested.

And excessive concentration risk in one industry
 
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Where are all the people fighting the Fed?

30% of me is still fighting, the other 70% is enjoying a 4-5% risk free return until there is more clarity…..and before the resident bull chimes in, I realize the market will turn before the economy does. I will look for opportunities to expand my stock allocation as stocks drop. I have added and or increased several positions over the last week, essentially repurchasing shares and were previously sold. I generally buy back a company’s shares after a 5 to 10% pullback from where I sold.
 
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30% of me is still fighting, the other 70% is enjoying a 4-5% risk free return until there is more clarity…..and before the resident bull chimes in, I realize the market will turn before the economy does. I will look for opportunities to expand my stock allocation as stocks drop. I have added and or increased several positions over the last week, essentially repurchasing shares and were previously sold. I generally buy back a company’s shares after a 5 to 10% pullback from where I sold.
I agree with you. I’ll accept the 4-5% until the market move further up or down. I like some of the pharmaceuticals and medical companies that are down big since I’m more confidence they will move up when the market turns. I sold most of my FAANGS stock when they peak and waiting to buy at the lower level. AMZN is getting close to the buy level and maybe GOOG.
 
We are not near the bottom. The worst is yet to come.
I agree but what’s your prediction for S&P? 3,700 is only about 5% lower, 3,500 is only 10% lower and 3,300 is 15% lower. I really haven’t been hit yet since I move most of my assets to cash and can take a 10% hit. Are you expecting lower than 3,300? A lot of billionaires and experts expect more than 20%. I guess buy in smaller quantities as it continue to go lower. I think we’ll be a trading range for a long time.
 
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Fed's Bostic says summer pause on tap. There you have it.
Good luck.,

you know he doesn't get a vote, right?

Not sure what more you guys need........ 6% is coming.. and inflation is a bigger bitch than ever...
and Eurozone is now falling apart too...

I'm not applauding it... but, again, wishes ain't forecasting.

hope I'm wrong... please feel free to ignore me...
 
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Good luck.,

you know he doesn't get a vote, right?

Not sure what more you guys need........ 6% is coming.. and inflation is a bigger bitch than ever...
and Eurozone is now falling apart too...

I'm not applauding it... but, again, wishes ain't forecasting.

hope I'm wrong... please feel free to ignore me...
Bostic is more hawkish than most voting members. He is the hawk of hawks. Good to see such Fed capitulation.

The inflation math is baked. The Fed knows this. Their biggest goal right now is to not f-up the economy and thus influence the presidential election cycle.
 
Good luck.,

you know he doesn't get a vote, right?

Not sure what more you guys need........ 6% is coming.. and inflation is a bigger bitch than ever...
and Eurozone is now falling apart too...

I'm not applauding it... but, again, wishes ain't forecasting.

hope I'm wrong... please feel free to ignore me...

Exactly. It only matters what Powell thinks.
 
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