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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Likely going to rally into close, if no recession all this short term panic is meaningless.
You dont seem to grasp the impact of a 5% increase of the cost of capital for public companies for an entire year.

If no recession, then no subsequent need to cut rates for …years.

Here’s a pro tip hint for looking for babies thrown out with the bath water: understand FCF.
 
Listen, I’m not saying to sell into this downturn. I did 3 weeks ago by going to 30% net long because the market action in the first month of the year made zero sense.

It probably a little late to do it now. I would hold what you have at this point , with the exception of culling speculative sh!t tech plays (the market is coming for them now).

I would not deploy any large capital into ETFs today. Catching knives is really hard.

If we close below 3965 then you’ll be able to buy at 3800 relatively soon.

Trade ideas: SPY March 7 3800 puts will cost you $1.15.

I also shorted TGT @169 for a quick swing trade into next Tuesdays earnings.
Reasonable POV. And FYI, when I say buy the dip, I don't mean every day or every drop of a few points.

In addition to adding in new money, my playbook is if a broad index/sector drops enough, I will convert all or a portion to the corresponding 2x or 3x play. Once it goes back up (and indexes always do), I will reconvert to the original ETF. Fun! :)

I don't short or do options (as of now).
 
Reasonable POV. And FYI, when I say buy the dip, I don't mean every day or every drop of a few points.

In addition to adding in new money, my playbook is if a broad index/sector drops enough, I will convert all or a portion to the corresponding 2x or 3x play. Once it goes back up (and indexes always do), I will reconvert to the original ETF. Fun! :)
What triggers a purchase for you? Are you doing something like DCA at levels of 5% below your last purchase?
 
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yell all you want that these measures are backwards looking; or not accurate; or don't take into account that one thing you know matters....

...it's what the Fed uses........ higher and higher longer...

whether you think that's right or good or helpful... i feel for you.

but, plan for what is likely to happen - not what you want to happen...
 
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KKR is a company that I’ve added to my watch list. It’s a company that will do well in this economic environment. Will be interested if it slips below 50.
 



yell all you want that these measures are backwards looking or not accurate are don't take into account that one thing you know matters....

...it's what the Fed uses........ higher and higher longer...

whether you think that's right or good or helpful... i feel for you.

but, plan for what is likely to happen - not what you want to happen...
The FED and the market thank these sheep for putting in their bids.
 
What triggers a purchase for you? Are you doing something like DCA at levels of 5% below your last purchase?
It varies quite a bit.

I normally look for an index or sector that is impacted more than a general downward move. For example, if the overall market drops 15%, but the Nasdaq drops 30%, I will start buying TQQQ or QLD (depending on the account or amount of money). I did this a few times over the fall/summer when semiconductors got whack more than the market.

I think biotech and nat gas are ripe for such opportunities now.

For 2x plays, I have been waiting to see a 25%'ish drop in indexes before making a move. I converted VB to UWM once this happened with the Russell 2K. I was waiting to see if the S&P got to 3400 in October so I could convert VOO into SSO, but it didn't make it all the way down. I would like to see a 100% return on such plays for the risk once the indexes get back to ATHs.

Getting back to 3x, once I start, I will normally set some lower levels for additional purchases (since 3x ETFs can go south quickly). For example, I have a large position in TQQQ at a very nice cost basis. I won't buy again unless it hit $15.
 
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KKR is a company that I’ve added to my watch list. It’s a company that will do well in this economic environment. Will be interested if it slips below 50.

Thoughts on their "executive compensation"?

NameTitlePayExercisedYear Born
Mr. George R. Roberts J.D.Co-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.51MN/A1943
Mr. Henry Robert KravisCo-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.45MN/A1944
Mr. Joseph Y. BaeCo-CEO & Director83.37MN/A1972
Mr. Scott C. NuttallCo-CEO & Director80.98MN/A1973
Mr. Robert H. LewinPartner & Chief Financial Officer15.34MN/A1980
Mr. David J. SorkinPartner & Chief Legal Officer10.41MN/A1960
 
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You dont seem to grasp the impact of a 5% increase of the cost of capital for public companies for an entire year.

If no recession, then no subsequent need to cut rates for …years.

Here’s a pro tip hint for looking for babies thrown out with the bath water: understand FCF.

That was a major concern of mine for a year and a half, but it hasn't materialized in a collapse of consumer demand or an inability to maintain supply broadly speaking. These capital costs have largely been passed on to the consumer over the past 18 months. I had assumed the run up in prices would take a hatchet to the economy's buying power but so far it hasn't happened, which to be fair is somewhat surprising.

But if we've been able to avoid a recession up to this point it gets tougher every passing day to make a case that one is still looming, at least in the short to medium term (it's always looming on a long enough timeline).
 
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Thoughts on their "executive compensation"?

NameTitlePayExercisedYear Born
Mr. George R. Roberts J.D.Co-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.51MN/A1943
Mr. Henry Robert KravisCo-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.45MN/A1944
Mr. Joseph Y. BaeCo-CEO & Director83.37MN/A1972
Mr. Scott C. NuttallCo-CEO & Director80.98MN/A1973
Mr. Robert H. LewinPartner & Chief Financial Officer15.34MN/A1980
Mr. David J. SorkinPartner & Chief Legal Officer10.41MN/A1960
are they hiring?
 
KKR is a company that I’ve added to my watch list. It’s a company that will do well in this economic environment. Will be interested if it slips below 50.

There is a lot of downside risk for them as they are forced to writedown some of their investments, like the commercial real estate REITs

Why do you think they will do well in this environment?
 
That was a major concern of mine for a year and a half, but it hasn't materialized in a collapse of consumer demand or an inability to maintain supply broadly speaking. These capital costs have largely been passed on to the consumer over the past 18 months. I had assumed the run up in prices would take a hatchet to the economy's buying power but so far it hasn't happened, which to be fair is somewhat surprising.

But if we've been able to avoid a recession up to this point it gets tougher every passing day to make a case that one is still looming, at least in the short to medium term (it's always looming on a long enough timeline).
It’s a cancer on earnings. It will take a while before blatant symptoms appear.
 
Thoughts on their "executive compensation"?

NameTitlePayExercisedYear Born
Mr. George R. Roberts J.D.Co-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.51MN/A1943
Mr. Henry Robert KravisCo-Founder & Exec. Co-Chairman67.45MN/A1944
Mr. Joseph Y. BaeCo-CEO & Director83.37MN/A1972
Mr. Scott C. NuttallCo-CEO & Director80.98MN/A1973
Mr. Robert H. LewinPartner & Chief Financial Officer15.34MN/A1980
Mr. David J. SorkinPartner & Chief Legal Officer10.41MN/A1960
Ive said many times, one day a lawyer is going to argue the comp packages are not in the investors best interests and sue for fiduciary negligence. Walsh was a great example of this
 
That was a major concern of mine for a year and a half, but it hasn't materialized in a collapse of consumer demand or an inability to maintain supply broadly speaking. These capital costs have largely been passed on to the consumer over the past 18 months. I had assumed the run up in prices would take a hatchet to the economy's buying power but so far it hasn't happened, which to be fair is somewhat surprising.

But if we've been able to avoid a recession up to this point it gets tougher every passing day to make a case that one is still looming, at least in the short to medium term (it's always looming on a long enough timeline).
fed needs to kill the revolving debt/credit spending to slow spending. Consumer debt has exploded and cannot continue
 
You dont seem to grasp the impact of a 5% increase of the cost of capital for public companies for an entire year.

If no recession, then no subsequent need to cut rates for …years.

Here’s a pro tip hint for looking for babies thrown out with the bath water: understand FCF.
Huge problem. Mentioned it months ago, but most dismiss it.
 
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Capital One 11-month CD at 5.00%.
Deal good for another few weeks. Also, Ally now has their 18-mo CD at 5%:


Nice to see dip-buyers move in this afternoon and mitigate the emotional selling. Bodes well for the future.
 
Fed. Home Loan Bank has offered "step-up" bonds for a while...

but, new offering is now 5Yr notes (quarterly callable) where the interest rate steps-up semi-annually 50bps to a peak of 9%.

doubt you ever see the 9% with the call risk.... but, 9% anywhere near an Aaa.... crazsszy times.....
 
Ive said many times, one day a lawyer is going to argue the comp packages are not in the investors best interests and sue for fiduciary negligence. Walsh was a great example of this

BLACKSTONE CEO SCHWARZMAN COLLECTS $1.27 BLN IN 2022, MOST EVER
 
BLACKSTONE CEO SCHWARZMAN COLLECTS $1.27 BLN IN 2022, MOST EVER
right there, how does he warrant that in any day an age. I'm not communist but this is outrageous. No one is worth that to an organization.
 
Fed. Home Loan Bank has offered "step-up" bonds for a while...

but, new offering is now 5Yr notes (quarterly callable) where the interest rate steps-up semi-annually 50bps to a peak of 9%.

doubt you ever see the 9% with the call risk.... but, 9% anywhere near an Aaa.... crazsszy times.....
what is the step structure ie where is it starting and for how long before the steps start?
 
what is the step structure ie where is it starting and for how long before the steps start?
::going from memory::...i will post the CUSIP details if i come across them again..
~5.00 today with 50bps increase each 6 months, capping at 9% for the last 12 months

Quarterly callable w/ 5 days notice.
 
right there, how does he warrant that in any day an age. I'm not communist but this is outrageous. No one is worth that to an organization.

what is the step structure ie where is it starting and for how long before the steps start?
Conservatives railing on CEO compensation!!! What has this world come to? You maybe confusing Blackstone with Blackrock.

In all seriousness, Schwarzman co-founded the firm and has 20% ownership. It is common for the founder to take home the lion share of the profits.
 
right there, how does he warrant that in any day an age. I'm not communist but this is outrageous. No one is worth that to an organization.

Especially when his comp was decided on wildly overvalued PE valuations.

Will there be a clawback? I doubt it.
 
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Held above it today. Not much economic data next week. Not sure if the market will drift up or down. Feb data will rule the day on the next big move.
I am no economist or a big macro guy, but it seems to me that the inflation will not come down until unemployment will pick up. As long as people have money, they will keep spending even if it means that they are taking on more debt. Maybe folks find solace in the fact that as long as they still have a job, debt doesn't matter. Some people have speculated that the fed won't pivot until the job market reverses and won't cut rates until there is a recession. I am starting to fall into that camp. When the job market starts to reverse will be a time to start buying bond ETFs. In the meantime, keep looking for the proverbial "baby being thrown out with the bathwater" equities. My feeling is opportunities such as TSLA at ~$100 and NVDA at ~$110 will be coming soon. I will be keeping some cash around. You can get over 4% on your cash in fidelity and have immediate access to trades if needed.
 
I am no economist or a big macro guy, but it seems to me that the inflation will not come down until unemployment will pick up. As long as people have money, they will keep spending even if it means that they are taking on more debt. Maybe folks find solace in the fact that as long as they still have a job, debt doesn't matter. Some people have speculated that the fed won't pivot until the job market reverses and won't cut rates until there is a recession. I am starting to fall into that camp. When the job market starts to reverse will be a time to start buying bond ETFs. In the meantime, keep looking for the proverbial "baby being thrown out with the bathwater" equities. My feeling is opportunities such as TSLA at ~$100 and NVDA at ~$110 will be coming soon. I will be keeping some cash around. You can get over 4% on your cash in fidelity and have immediate access to trades if needed.
+1
I noticed Fidelity's cash rate is now 4.11%. Better than our Capital One and Ally online accounts! LOL.

I made a few of good 3x trades and haven't redeployed yet. Also, tons of new cash coming over the next few weeks, so if we have a decline, the timing works well for me. By the way, can't imagine NVDA getting back to their lows, too much AI momentum and their earnings bar was already reset.

The only inflation sector holding up is shelter, but that is mathematical BS since the real data shows it has rolled over months ago. This deflation is coming to CPI, PPI, and PCE in several months. The math is baked. As I posted before, 80% of the high CPI MoM print was shelter. Thoughts? Always appreciate your insights.

Fo7wreTaAAAgY4U
 
I am no economist or a big macro guy, but it seems to me that the inflation will not come down until unemployment will pick up. As long as people have money, they will keep spending even if it means that they are taking on more debt. Maybe folks find solace in the fact that as long as they still have a job, debt doesn't matter. Some people have speculated that the fed won't pivot until the job market reverses and won't cut rates until there is a recession. I am starting to fall into that camp. When the job market starts to reverse will be a time to start buying bond ETFs. In the meantime, keep looking for the proverbial "baby being thrown out with the bathwater" equities. My feeling is opportunities such as TSLA at ~$100 and NVDA at ~$110 will be coming soon. I will be keeping some cash around. You can get over 4% on your cash in fidelity and have immediate access to trades if needed.
right on unemployment but what we need to do is slow spending and you do that by killing revolving cc debt. Tell banks higher reserves and lower revolving debt thresholds to restrict limits
 
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right on unemployment but what we need to do is slow spending and you do that by killing revolving cc debt. Tell banks higher reserves and lower revolving debt thresholds to restrict limits
Does that mean my credit cards will cut my credit limit so instead of reaching 5% of my credit limit each month I might reach 10%?

And of course I pay my bill in full every month
 
::going from memory::...i will post the CUSIP details if i come across them again..
~5.00 today with 50bps increase each 6 months, capping at 9% for the last 12 months

Quarterly callable w/ 5 days notice.
oh yes I know how they work, I used to structure them lol

that is a nice string there.
 
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Held above it today. Not much economic data next week. Not sure if the market will drift up or down. Feb data will rule the day on the next big move.
Nearing SP500 support level of 3965.

If it closes below then the next support level is 3800ish.
T2Kplus20 said:
The next support level will depend on what PCE says, not some voodoo TA line.




-----So now you are referencing Technical support levels? You called it voodoo on Wednesday.
 
Is it just me or does almost every local business now have a credit card minimum charge or tack on an additional fee? For the first time in years, I’m starting to carry/use cash because some of the fees range between 4%-10% which add up over time. I thought credit card companies prohibited merchants from doing this.
 
Is it just me or does almost every local business now have a credit card minimum charge or tack on an additional fee? For the first time in years, I’m starting to carry/use cash because some of the fees range between 4%-10% which add up over time. I thought credit card companies prohibited merchants from doing this.
Seen plenty of minimums, but not additional fees yet. Cash is always the way to go when possible (especially with large purchases).
 
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