OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Stocks Haven't Been This Expensive In More Than A Decade
Stocks haven't been this overvalued in 15 years. Read why higher rates should lead to lower stock prices.
seekingalpha.com
Most sectors are well undervalued. Small and mid-caps are at 20-year lows. Large caps are at historic norms. Most overvalued sector is energy:
2023 Stock Market Outlook: Near-Term Turbulence, but Clearer Skies Ahead
Stocks are trading at a deep discount, but need evidence of long-term economic rebound and moderating inflation to rally back to fair value.
100% Agreed. I love semiconductors and have an overweight position. However, INTC is a train wreck and should be avoided.
In other news. Bullard capitulation? Did he see updated data? Wow:
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Wednesday he's confident that the central bank can reach its inflation goals this year.
I saw Bullard's comment too and would have expected a more positive response in the market today after yesterday's selloff. Now, we wait to see Friday's PCE number and upcoming February CPI/PPI. Investors need to see it before they believe it.
Let's see how the day goes, but you are right. It's all about inflation data! The fact that Bullard is bullish on beating inflation this year is very telling.
As for PCE specifically, it seems like the 3 prints move somewhat in sync. As in, for a given month, all 3 are good or all 3 are bad. Obviously, the first 2 January prints were higher than expected. I assume PCE may disappoint as well, but who knows. We shall see! A few leading metrics for Feb look very promising for the rapid decline to continue.
Over the last almost 100 years of history the S&P 500 has averaged 10.5% annually.
Yes. I watched the interview. He was fairly bullish on soft landing. Good to hear. Hopefully we have better visibility in the next 8-10 weeks on what direction this market takes.
In watching Bloomberg and CNBC the last couple of weeks, the phrase being spoken more often, from analysts and CEOs alike, is “profitable growth”. A year ago it was just “growth”.
Maybe the market can move away from all of these money loser companies that cater to millennials.
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Everyone is getting the message. The post-COVID spec tech boom isn't coming back. Those companies that get to profitability will be rewarded, those that don't will be punished. Also nice to see established tech companies understand the importance of margin and wise growth that sustainable. The spending and hiring of 2021 was reckless.
Interesting to note that Bullard was in favor of 50 bips increase in last meeting; as per released minutes.
He said that publicly prior to the meeting. Too bad he doesn't have a vote in 2023! :)
Nearing SP500 support level of 3965.
If it closes below then the next support level is 3800ish.
If it closes below then the next support level is 3800ish.
The next support level will depend on what PCE says, not some voodoo TA line.
I made a good deal on Exxon/Chevron this past year. They of course pay gsolid Div's and all ratings have them at buy. Are you of the opinion to take profits now? Most of mine are now or close to LTerm.... but I don't want to crap my NJ threshold earnings so early in the the year.Most sectors are well undervalued. Small and mid-caps are at 20-year lows. Large caps are at historic norms. Most overvalued sector is energy:
2023 Stock Market Outlook: Near-Term Turbulence, but Clearer Skies Ahead
Stocks are trading at a deep discount, but need evidence of long-term economic rebound and moderating inflation to rally back to fair value.www.morningstar.com
Speaking of semis, NVDA with the double beat. Strength of AI chips growing! Strong guidance.
www.cnbc.com
Nvidia stock rises after slight beat driven by A.I. chips
Nvidia has increasingly been seen by investors as one of the chip stocks best positioned to endure an economic slowdown that hurts PC and semiconductor sales.
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Is there a wealth cap to post on this forum? We all went to Rutgers and I have been lucky enough to do well. I was fortunate enough to be in the right place at the right time.
Follow the Wall Street adage - "The bigger the base..." I know you aren't a big technical guy, but it maybe your friend here. As always be careful with 3x leveraged funds.
The chance of getting called on the $300 strike is highly unlikely. If by some miracle, that was to play out badly, I would do the calculation of the capital gain taxes that I would pay by getting called out versus closing the option. More than likely, I would take the loss and close the option if I felt that the stock has a chance to hit $300. My cost basis is well below $25.
Don't be ridiculous. I am not going to be posting my firm's trades on an internet forum. You don't get to where I am by doing stupid things like what you are suggesting.
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Do not discount the ubiquitous industry disclaimer: "Past performance and does not guarantee future results."
Recent geopolitical dynamics are ominous. China now aligning more closely with Russia may result in a move on Taiwan, as we may not have the will or $$$ to intervene.
Come on now, people talk their book all the time in the media. Yet further evidence you don't know what you are talking about. Mom's basement? Highly likely.
No one goes on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox business and goes rogue. Those appearances are mostly scripted. But I think you knew that. You understand how pump and dump works right. Have you ever heard anyone come in the media and announce that they are planning to make a trade or do you only hear about the trades they have already made?
You were talking about a position already established, not one that you were going to establish. 40,000 shares of TSLA or whatever. So, not sure what your point is.
PCE (arguably a better inflation metric) came in like all the other data. Inflation is still stubbornly here.
Consumer overspending.
Market taking a 1%-2% dump at the open.
Market chance of 50 bips hike for next meeting just went from 10 to 30%.
SP500 support will be blown out assuming no rally into the close. Next stop 3800 next week.
Plan accordingly.
Consumer overspending.
Market taking a 1%-2% dump at the open.
Market chance of 50 bips hike for next meeting just went from 10 to 30%.
SP500 support will be blown out assuming no rally into the close. Next stop 3800 next week.
Plan accordingly.
Well, if that’s the case then I’ll be looking to leg back into the market, but not here. I’d start single stock shopping at 3700 and index shopping at 3600
JPMorgan CEO sees U.S. interest rates hitting 6% -CNBC
JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon expects U.S. interest rates could hit 6%, he said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.
Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected
The core PCE price index was expected to increase 0.5% from a month ago and 4.4% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.
I agree. Still in mostly cash, Cd and Treasury waiting to buy. CD and Treasury mostly maturing by June.
Likely going to rally into close, if no recession all this short term panic is meaningless.
NVDA to me is like TSLA at the moment. This is xactly the wrong place to get in because of FOMO. TSLA was very interesting once in broke 120 on the way down, not so much here. NVDA will be interesting another 50 points lower, not here. This does not mean you buy NVDA at 180, but observe the direction of the big trades in that area and reassess.
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Bingo! The "recession" narrative is fading, so consumers and companies should hold up fine. Hot PCE was expected, since all three monthly prints are very similar.
Take advantage of this short term panic and last gasp of the bears.
Plan accordingly!
June? You will likely miss the boat. I'm in better shape with significant new money dropping on 3/7 and 3/15 (equity and annual bonuses). This may work our perfectly since the next CPI print isn't until 3/14.
That's the hope! :)
I bought a bunch of 6 month treasuries last week... hoping things are in a better spot later in the summer and I'll decide what to do at that time.
Listen, I’m not saying to sell into this downturn. I did 3 weeks ago by going to 30% net long because the market action in the first month of the year made zero sense.
It probably a little late to do it now. I would hold what you have at this point , with the exception of culling speculative sh!t tech plays (the market is coming for them now).
I would not deploy any large capital into ETFs today. Catching knives is really hard.
If we close below 3965 then you’ll be able to buy at 3800 relatively soon.
Trade ideas: SPY March 7 3800 puts will cost you $1.15.
I also shorted TGT @169 for a quick swing trade into next Tuesdays earnings.
What yield did you get? I think getting a 5 handle makes sense for 6 months. Although you’re probably stuck holding to maturity now.
5.11% I've got plenty of equities and muni bonds in taxable, wanted to park some cash so figured 6 month bills made sense for now and can reevaluate later.
