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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Damn

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We are below support on the SP500 50 day MAV. Next support is 3935. With a bad print in non farm payrolls tomorrow, this market is going to dump on itself next week.
 
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We are below support on the SP500 50 day MAV. Next support is 3935. With a bad print in non farm payrolls tomorrow, this market is going to dump on itself next week.
With a good print the market will moon. Funny you didn't mention that option. LOL!

Regardless, CPI is all that matters (which is Tuesday).
 
With a good print the market will moon. Funny you didn't mention that option. LOL!
I wonder if by next month the market will be rooting for strong employment numbers because of recession fears.

Good will be good. Right now good is bad (maybe?).
 
If you were my age, I would call this wussy. But since you are retired, I guess this is okay. :)

Started a new CURE play today and added to LABU. Health care is ready to rip soon.

Famous last words. Great timing.


That will be coming soon! :)

Do you have any specific HC plays?

At the right time, I would buy large cap health care and small cap that could become buy out targets. I will give you specific names later (after I have purchased them😉😜).
 
I wonder if by next month the market will be rooting for strong employment numbers because of recession fears.

Good will be good. Right now good is bad (maybe?).
Right now, I think bad is good.....but not too bad! :)
The sweet spot is a little below expectations, but not a train wreck #.
 
Famous last words. Great timing.




At the right time, I would buy large cap health care and small cap that could become buy out targets. I will give you specific names later (after I have purchased them😉😜).
Bought more CURE and LABU before the close. In for a penny, in for a pound!

Got tons of new cash to play with.
 
Hypothetical:
If you had $50k that you didn't need for a few years... would you put it in treasuries getting 5% (no state income tax), S&P 500 fund, or Money Market getting 3.5%?

the correct answer is probably a blend of the 3, but just curious
Define a few years. Anything less than 5 years, you should be buying tsy
 
Whisper number is +270K. Over 300K would be bad.

To me, there are more and more blue chip companies laying people off.
I just saw an article that Feb had the highest amount of layoffs in a pretty long time. Job growth in the 200's would be fine. I bet the 500+ from last month is going to be revised down.
 
Are you doing anything with Grayscale (GBTC or ETHE)? The court decision won't come until the fall, but the hearing went extremely well for them.
I don’t own ETHE. I should have sold GBTC when it was solidly positive but I got greedy. Gonna hold it until the legal fog lifts. It’s dead money in my portfolio currently.
 
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I don’t own ETHE. I should have sold GBTC when it was solidly positive but I got greedy. Gonna hold it until the legal fog lifts. It’s dead money in my portfolio currently.
Never made anything on GBTC, but made a boatload on ETHE and Galaxy's 2021 pump. Most of that money was moved into my TQQQ play (which is still slightly positive). Fidelity Crypto has been a good platform so far (as I slowly build modest positions in BTC and ETH).
 
Ok so I made the move Monday. Moved 500k to a 5% savings account (Primis Bank) after selling off a majority of our positions. Shorted 150 shares of SPY with a stop loss of 8%. Leaving some permanent longs in play.

About 50% cash. 40% long. 10% short. Going to hold until stop loss kicks in or until Memorial Day.
So far so good on my pivot on Feb 6. My short of SPY at 411.00 is coming along nicely. My biggest perma-long position of GE is defying expectations.
 
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Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) down huge today. -35%. Investment bank has a ton of exposure to Tech. Been the biggest in that space for a while.
Was down a full 60% at the close, down to $106, and then another 20 something percent after hours..... I bought a little at $85.
 
Was down a full 60% at the close, down to $106, and then another 20 something percent after hours..... I bought a little at $85.
Be careful. My friend works for a HF/VC shop called Coatue and they think SIVB is going under.
 
Whisper number is +270K. Over 300K would be bad.

To me, there are more and more blue chip companies laying people off.
270k would be bad. Over 300k would result in a huge sellout. Right now more than inflation numbers, jobs report is more important.
 
270k would be bad. Over 300k would result in a huge sellout. Right now more than inflation numbers, jobs report is more important.
We’re in a very interesting time in the markets.

An interesting development would be if the employment market starts to roll over yet inflation remains sticky .
 
Be careful. My friend works for a HF/VC shop called Coatue and they think SIVB is going under.
Super tiny position.

Was reported that $80 was the price of the secured offering. So hopefully some support around this level.
 
We’re in a very interesting time in the markets.

An interesting development would be if the employment market starts to roll over yet inflation remains sticky .
CPI headline will be under 3% by the end of the summer. The only thing that is "sticky" is the stupid math of these government BS metrics. High inflation has been gone for months.
 
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May $300 TSLA calls that I sold are worth less than 10% of what I sold them for. I closed some of those calls. I plan on closing more in the coming weeks.
Are you happy with that trade? It was covered calls which means you are still down 15% net of the call prem.
 
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