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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Lots of unprofitable micro caps (and some small caps?) will soon go belly up. The conveyor belt feeding them free money is no longer in service. The debt these young companies took on will come due soon. They'll be unable to restructure it. The zombies will perish, forever.
 
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Forbes is reporting the new federal 2024 budget includes taxes on unrealized capital gains. Is this true? If so, holy shit. Would basically spell the end of start ups among a host of other horrible consequences.
Wealthy VC, PE and hedge funds give hundreds of millions each year to politicians.

It is more likely that RU get a 4 seed or higher on Sunday than this provision getting through Congress.
 
It's being proposed by Biden but will never pass congress and likely the senate will reject it too
Posturing to raise the debt ceiling limit. But with the growing and expansive national debt, it will have to be addressed via new/increased taxes (more $ in) and spending cuts (less $ out). Has to happen.
 
Lots of unprofitable micro caps (and some small caps?) will soon go belly up. The conveyor belt feeding them free money is no longer in service. The debt these young companies took on will come due soon. They'll be unable to restructure it. The zombies will perish, forever.
A lot of these companies are total bullshit but in totality it has given America its only edge: innovation.

That may be stifled for a while.
 
Wealthy VC, PE and hedge funds give hundreds of millions each year to politicians.

It is more likely that RU get a 4 seed or higher on Sunday than this provision getting through Congress.
Agreed, just thought that provision would be generating a bit more hoopla.
 
Forbes is reporting the new federal 2024 budget includes taxes on unrealized capital gains. Is this true? If so, holy shit. Would basically spell the end of start ups among a host of other horrible consequences.

Only for those with a net worth over $100 million. Also wants a 39.6% long term capital gains rates for those making more $1 million. Of course the 3.8% ACA surcharge would still be assessed.

Of course, I have a better shot at the MegaMillions grand prize than the chances of this being passed. I doubt this would even pass the Senate with Fetterman out and Manchin and Tester facing 2024 elections.
 
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The fear trade kicked in. I view this as a positive. Now people will take it seriously and maybe the Fed will stop adding gasoline to the fire. This is a lost year. Yields will suck and so will the stock markets
 
Forbes is reporting the new federal 2024 budget includes taxes on unrealized capital gains. Is this true? If so, holy shit. Would basically spell the end of start ups among a host of other horrible consequences.
It’s not going to pass. That is just a political document
 
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Forbes is reporting the new federal 2024 budget includes taxes on unrealized capital gains. Is this true? If so, holy shit. Would basically spell the end of start ups among a host of other horrible consequences.
Just a stupid political idea that has no hope of passing (either the House or Senate). No worries.
 
Percentage of 50 bps hike probability as per CME tracker this week:

Monday/ 23%
Wednesday/ 71%
Friday/36%
Below 30% now. Watch the Fed's narrative quickly change, especially with a good CPI on Tuesday (which is forecasted). If the banking/financial system has more problems, the Fed will be rightfully blamed.
 
Below 30% now. Watch the Fed's narrative quickly change, especially with a good CPI on Tuesday (which is forecasted). If the banking/financial system has more problems, the Fed will be rightfully blamed.
More wishful thinking. If a good CPI is forecasted, why the tough talk earlier in the week? Don’t think the Fed caused SVB or Silvergate to fail.
 
Time period?
Likely BTC and ETH to retest recent lows, so BTC 16'ish and ETH slightly under 1k. We are still in a crypto bear/winter until we approach the next halfing.
BTC trend has been down since $69k. The move from 15 - 25 was just to bring some more suckers in. No end in sight…bye bye.
 
More wishful thinking. If a good CPI is forecasted, why the tough talk earlier in the week? Don’t think the Fed caused SVB or Silvergate to fail.
Because the Fed has acted like jerks all year long. Tough talk since they are still butthurt from screwing up 2021 and the "transitory" story. Inflation is coming down nicely, but one poor month of data and the freaked out once again.

Fed didn't cause SVB or SI, but the stress on the system will be made worse with more hikes.
 
BTC trend has been down since $69k. The move from 15 - 25 was just to bring some more suckers in. No end in sight…bye bye.
BTC and ETH have been doing just fine.....when bad players aren't screwing everything up. Can't blame the networks for all that stuff.
 
175 billion in accounts with 169 billion uninsured funds in large accounts
Lots of Intel and DoD start-ups
Roku had 500 million it doesn't expect back.
Structural problems - ever see a magician pull hankies out of a hat and they keep coming?

Some posts from Ed Dowd a reformed hedge funder (10 year manager at BlackRock)

"The buried lede on #SBV is that they got caught sideways on losses in relatively safe mortgage backed securities. They made a 10 year bet that went south on interest rate increases. It was interest rate risk not credit risk.

Now how many other banks made this mistake?

In other words they got the macro wrong and suffered the tyranny of bond math. When rates go from zero to 5 % in a year it’s devastating.

This is just getting started and many others likely screwed this up.

Unrealized losses system wide."


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Because the Fed has acted like jerks all year long. Tough talk since they are still butthurt from screwing up 2021 and the "transitory" story. Inflation is coming down nicely, but one poor month of data and the freaked out once again.

Fed didn't cause SVB or SI, but the stress on the system will be made worse with more hikes.
The Hikes grab the headline but the real issue will be the prolonged period of high interest rate. High employment, wage growth and continue spending provides a cover for the Fed.
 
Posturing to raise the debt ceiling limit. But with the growing and expansive national debt, it will have to be addressed via new/increased taxes (more $ in) and spending cuts (less $ out). Has to happen.
record receipts, what we need is spending cuts. Im amazed people think it's ok to give as much as we do in taxes and NOT demand cuts to spending.
 
175 billion in accounts with 169 billion uninsured funds in large accounts
Lots of Intel and DoD start-ups
Roku had 500 million it doesn't expect back.
Structural problems - ever see a magician pull hankies out of a hat and they keep coming?

Some posts from Ed Dowd a reformed hedge funder (10 year manager at BlackRock)

"The buried lede on #SBV is that they got caught sideways on losses in relatively safe mortgage backed securities. They made a 10 year bet that went south on interest rate increases. It was interest rate risk not credit risk.

Now how many other banks made this mistake?

In other words they got the macro wrong and suffered the tyranny of bond math. When rates go from zero to 5 % in a year it’s devastating.

This is just getting started and many others likely screwed this up.

Unrealized losses system wide."


GKH0mb4.jpg



Totally wrong. MBS was nowhere near the top of the list of SIVB’s problems. They were way overexposed on a shit bond portfolio and word got out; and the self-fulfilling prophecy ensued
 
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BTC trend has been down since $69k. The move from 15 - 25 was just to bring some more suckers in. No end in sight…bye bye.
Nah, going straight up to $500K. At least that’s what we were told by CW, Guy the Crypto Guy, Novogratz, and a bunch of other slugs.
 
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175 billion in accounts with 169 billion uninsured funds in large accounts
Lots of Intel and DoD start-ups
Roku had 500 million it doesn't expect back.
Structural problems - ever see a magician pull hankies out of a hat and they keep coming?

Some posts from Ed Dowd a reformed hedge funder (10 year manager at BlackRock)

"The buried lede on #SBV is that they got caught sideways on losses in relatively safe mortgage backed securities. They made a 10 year bet that went south on interest rate increases. It was interest rate risk not credit risk.

Now how many other banks made this mistake?

In other words they got the macro wrong and suffered the tyranny of bond math. When rates go from zero to 5 % in a year it’s devastating.

This is just getting started and many others likely screwed this up.

Unrealized losses system wide."


GKH0mb4.jpg



lots of great comments I agree with under his page
 
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Totally wrong. MBS was nowhere near the top of the list of SIVB’s problems. They were way overexposed on a shit bond portfolio and word got out; and the self-fulfilling prophecy ensued
it was the return differential that got them, not the credit side of things.
 
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first crypto, now tech bank... no coincidence.
adults with real plans will be important going forward...

I don't think this is "the end of times"... but actually seeing cracks put us one step closer to getting to the other side...

though, I still doubt we see the Fed pause before 4Q (and probably not until '24).
 
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first crypto, now tech bank... no coincidence.
adults with real plans will be important going forward...

I don't think this is as "the end of times"... but actually seeing cracks put us one step closer to getting to the other side...

though, I still doubt we see the Fed pause before 4Q (and probably not until '24).
Fed will not be able to raise rates with banking system stress or uncertainty that could create liquidity issues. That is like adding gas to a fire. Right or wrong, Fed will have some heavy discussion on this behind closed doors. Swap spreads are widening on 10yr banks and agency debt spreads are as well.

Fed has really fked up by losing sight of their mission. Enough with the faux narratives of climate, foreign central banks allowances, equity bs and Fed should simply focus on inflation and employment. Fed needs to reduce it's balance sheet massively and must force the banks to maintain higher reserves and raise credit standards on lending now. The rate increases don't work like they used to as the economies/financial markets are much more sophisticated and interdependent
 
Fed will not be able to raise rates with banking system stress or uncertainty that could create liquidity issues. That is like adding gas to a fire. Right or wrong, Fed will have some heavy discussion on this behind closed doors. Swap spreads are widening on 10yr banks and agency debt spreads are as well.

Fed has really fked up by losing sight of their mission. Enough with the faux narratives of climate, foreign central banks allowances, equity bs and Fed should simply focus on inflation and employment. Fed needs to reduce it's balance sheet massively and must force the banks to maintain higher reserves and raise credit standards on lending now. The rate increases don't work like they used to as the economies/financial markets are much more sophisticated and interdependent
Bingo! CPI should deliver a good number and give the Fed enough cover to change the narrative without admitting they f'ed up once again.

Fed pause coming in three, two, one.....
 
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sorry, breaking (shitty) banks is, quite literally, the point......

this is how you cool economies...

25, 25........

fight the fed.......

seeing people over-react to some over-leveraged shit-coin shit-bank is kinda funny tho.... great day to load up on some well run banks..
 
sorry, breaking (shitty) banks is, quite literally, the point......

this is how you cool economies...

25, 25........

fight the fed.......

seeing people over-react to some over-leveraged shit-coin shit-bank is kinda funny tho.... great day to load up on some well run banks..
It's over. If the Fed breaks stuff on purpose and causes pain to the public, Powell and other Fed officials will get impeached and removed from office.
 
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sorry, breaking (shitty) banks is, quite literally, the point......

this is how you cool economies...

25, 25........

fight the fed.......

seeing people over-react to some over-leveraged shit-coin shit-bank is kinda funny tho.... great day to load up on some well run banks..
but you see, it wasn't some coin shit little bank
also, your premise of breaking banks is the point is exactly opposite of the point in today's leveraged and interconnected banking system
 
Bingo! CPI should deliver a good number and give the Fed enough cover to change the narrative without admitting they f'ed up once again.

Fed pause coming in three, two, one.....
I don't know what cpi will be and inflation is still elevated but you cannot have banks, high profile banks, going under in such dramatic fashion

FDIC took over midday, unprecedented
 
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Fintech house of cards.... Self-absorbed, foolish casino players reminiscent of the dotcom and financial crises. The worst of both worlds. We learn nothing. Warren and Charlie likely got the first call from SVB....
 
Problem is the true capitalists never seem to lose and regulators are either incompetent or in on the scam.
the smart money doesn’t take bets. They position themselves for the upside with very little downside.
 
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