OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[Barnaby&Neill]

definitely not the way I'd go. To do so would require an overhaul of state and federal agencies. I mean I like the streamline and reducing gov't but there must be risk in the mkts as evidenced by svb and signature bank. they are not systemic and bailing out depositors here is beyond the wrong move

I’ve never found myself in the ‘break up the banks’ camp, and I’m not getting there for political reasons. Having institutions that are systemically risky and therefore can’t be allowed to fail is distorting the market and making it impossible to do anything but bail out smaller banks.

If the Fed/Treasury didn’t bail out SVB’s deposits, what depositor (person or business) was going to leave money in Key Bank, Fifth Third, Regions Bank, etc etc etc. Why leave your money there when risk-free institutions are a transfer away?

 

[patk89]

I agree, but I’d also add the SVB Board and SVB senior management to the blame list. If I were on the SVB Board I would have demanded to see regular and detailed reporting in their Board Books with respect to interest rate risk, credit risk, concentration risk, insured deposits/uninsured deposits, portfolio analysis, and sensitivity analysis regarding all these issues and combinations.

Per usual, you nail it! SVB was very reckless in loading up on long term bonds without proper hedging,especially given the volatility inherent in their customer base. It worked for them for a while, why pay for protection? Needless cost. While other prudent banks managed their risks. Look at our results, we are outperforming our peers, higher bonuses!

 

[Morrischiano]

Don’t count on actual trades. He will just claim to buy everything at the bottom and sell everything at the top. Of course everything is revealed after the fact.

I like to discuss actual trades in real time. Otherwise this thread is going to continue to devolve into “inflation is fake” and “Biden is destroying the economy- but I’m 100% long” arguments.

 

[Morrischiano]

All the banks are rallying, with few exceptions. CNOB IS STILL GOING DOWN PREOPEN.

Closed at 18.60. Trading around 18 now. Why isn’t it rallying…. Hmmm.

As I called out, shorted 500 yesterday at 20.25

Closed my RBC short yesterday and flipped long. Looks like I’ll catch a quick 20 points on the open. Will close long on first down move.

#WHENLAMBO

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good CPI print today, as expected. Annualized MoM inflation remains well under the 2% target when using real-time shelter data, not the garbage CPI metric. Everyone, including the Fed, has talked about how awful CPI is with shelter.

Solid declining trend allows the Fed to pause now (or do a .25% next week to save face).

 

[rutgersguy1]

All the banks are rallying, with few exceptions. CNOB IS STILL GOING DOWN PREOPEN.

FRC up 55% premarket of course from a smaller price compared to the 60-70% down from a larger number yesterday. Other regionals up big too premarket.

Actually, I thought this rally would have happened yesterday after the Fed moves. The regionals were trading as if they were going out of biz and I just can't see that unless they have a lot of non performing loans on the books. As of now, it doesn't seem like that's the case.

As is always the case, timing is everything lol.

 

[T2Kplus20]

BTC continues to rally. Over $26k now.

 

[FastMJ]

Good CPI print today, as expected. Annualized MoM inflation remains well under the 2% target when using real-time shelter data, not the garbage CPI metric. Everyone, including the Fed, has talked about how awful CPI is with shelter.

Solid declining trend allows the Fed to pause now (or do a .25% next week to save face).

Food inflation still marching higher at a circa 5% annual rate

 

[RUinPinehurst]

I'm in the "help recover the non-commercial depositors" camp. All depositors should have managed their accounts to protect their $, safeguarding against the insured limits. In the case of commercial depositors, you have to follow best practices and know who you are banking with and what they're doing with your $$$. To do otherwise is careless and negligent. In the case of publicly traded commercial depositors who made bad decisions or who just made false assumptions, they should be left to their own demise, to sort through this debacle. Be responsible.

I'm not a fan of the push to reduce or eliminate "student debt." I'm also not a fan of "making corporate A-Holes whole."

 

[RUTGERS95]

I’ve never found myself in the ‘break up the banks’ camp, and I’m not getting there for political reasons. Having institutions that are systemically risky and therefore can’t be allowed to fail is distorting the market and making it impossible to do anything but bail out smaller banks.

If the Fed/Treasury didn’t bail out SVB’s deposits, what depositor (person or business) was going to leave money in Key Bank, Fifth Third, Regions Bank, etc etc etc. Why leave your money there when risk-free institutions are a transfer away?

I'm all in on break up the banks. They are simply too big and once one becomes a ward of the state (too big to fail) it's time to downsize them

benefits are more manageable, more jobs, lower risk, more active participants in space for consumers, more active participants in money markets for risk management operations, greater liquidity and more

it's the right move

 

[RUTGERS95]

I'm in the "help recover the non-commercial depositors" camp. All depositors should have managed their accounts to protect their $, safeguarding against the insured limits. In the case of commercial depositors, you have to follow best practices and know who you are banking with and what they're doing with your $$$. To do otherwise is careless and negligent. In the case of publicly traded commercial depositors who made bad decisions or who just made false assumptions, they should be left to their own demise, to sort through this debacle. Be responsible.

I'm not a fan of the push to reduce or eliminate "student debt." I'm also not a fan of "making corporate A-Holes whole."

now this I can AGREE with 100%

but again, and not to engage in politics, all weekend large corporate donors were in contact with wh and newsome demanding gov't action. it was political

ok done

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Good CPI print today, as expected. Annualized MoM inflation remains well under the 2% target when using real-time shelter data, not the garbage CPI metric. Everyone, including the Fed, has talked about how awful CPI is with shelter.

Solid declining trend allows the Fed to pause now (or do a .25% next week to save face).

"CPI RISES MOST IN FIVE MONTHS." Bloomberg headline. "Good print," ay? Right ....

 

[Morrischiano]

Ok so CNOB bounced. Short covered. Hit the bids on FRC long at 46. Done with swing trades in the banks.

 

[Morrischiano]

Any thoughts on the SP500 short term? I am clueless at this point.

It does seem like the President and the FDIC have averted a banking crisis. On that alone, it think we are headed to 4000.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Any thoughts on the SP500 short term? I am clueless at this point.

It does seem like the President and the FDIC have averted a banking crisis. On that alone, it think we are headed to 4000.

Volatility for a while, with an eventual downward trend toward the "October lows" would be my guess. The immediate banking crisis may have been averted, but the inflation challenge and inevitable move to higher Fed rates (and holding there) remain.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Solid declining trend allows the Fed to pause now (or do a .25% next week to save face).

Isn't it wonderful when you have to even consider a political move from such a critical element of our government that impacts all our lives.

 

[Morrischiano]

Isn't it wonderful when you have to even consider a political move from such a critical element of our government that impacts all our lives.

I don’t know what banning abortion has to do with stocks?

 

[DHajekRC84]

I don’t know what banning abortion has to do with stocks?

Didn't you want to keep such inflammatory stuff out of this thread ?

 

[RUDead]

Two headlines I just saw:

SVB is being sued by its shareholders

DOJ,SEC investigating SVB management stock sales.

 

[RUDead]

I don’t know what banning abortion has to do with stocks?

You are the most political person on this thread and complain the most about political posts at the same time.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Two headlines I just saw:

SVB is being sued by its shareholders

DOJ,SEC investigating SVB management stock sales.

great . Deserve it. get that 3.5+ million back to pay the others back.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

I'm in the "help recover the non-commercial depositors" camp. All depositors should have managed their accounts to protect their $, safeguarding against the insured limits. In the case of commercial depositors, you have to follow best practices and know who you are banking with and what they're doing with your $$$. To do otherwise is careless and negligent. In the case of publicly traded commercial depositors who made bad decisions or who just made false assumptions, they should be left to their own demise, to sort through this debacle. Be responsible.

I'm not a fan of the push to reduce or eliminate "student debt." I'm also not a fan of "making corporate A-Holes whole."

Agree, especially with the large commercial depositors. Classic example of “moral hazard” with no repercussions for those large commercial entities that didn’t follow best practices.

 

[DHajekRC84]

I'm in the "help recover the non-commercial depositors" camp. All depositors should have managed their accounts to protect their $, safeguarding against the insured limits. In the case of commercial depositors, you have to follow best practices and know who you are banking with and what they're doing with your $$$. To do otherwise is careless and negligent. In the case of publicly traded commercial depositors who made bad decisions or who just made false assumptions, they should be left to their own demise, to sort through this debacle. Be responsible.

I'm not a fan of the push to reduce or eliminate "student debt." I'm also not a fan of "making corporate A-Holes whole."

so what you're saying is you believe in "responsibility" ? Interesting concept. We should try it lol.

 

[Morrischiano]

Didn't you want to keep such inflammatory stuff out of this thread ?

Well if you guys want to blow up a potentially useful thread with stuff that should’ve been moved to the CE board, let’s do it.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Well if you guys want to blow up a potentially useful thread with stuff that should’ve been moved to the CE board, let’s do it.

"you guys"? I totally supported you comments about keeping the crap off this thread. I'm not one of You guys. I'm just suggesting "walk the walk" sir and I'll continue to back you up here.
"ooops. My bad" is a fine and respected response. It builds credibility in my book cause we ALL make a mistake here and there. Just sayin.

 

[Morrischiano]

You are the most political person on this thread and complain the most about political posts at the same time.

Half of the posts about SIVB are coming from right wingnuts saying it failed because they had diversity hires.

So if you want to take political shots, I can too.

It’s why I stopped posting in the CE board. It’s a total waste of time. If you guys don’t want to post trade ideas here, and would rather devolve into “inflation is fake”, “get woke, go broke”, “old man in basement is bad”, then I’ll stop posting here too.

Let’s keep the bullshit off this tread, and just talk stocks.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

so what you're saying is you believe in "responsibility" ? Interesting concept. We should try it lol.

As The Boss sang: "... same old story same old act. One step up and two steps back."

We learn nothing. Continually. History doesn't repeat itself, as the saying goes, but it rhymes. Sadly, we get through these self-inflicted crises, make no adjustments in behavior, and somehow fool ourselves into thinking we've succeeded.

 

[T2Kplus20]

"CPI RISES MOST IN FIVE MONTHS." Bloomberg headline. "Good print," ay? Right ....

CPI LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2021 AS INFLATION EASES - Fidelity

Funny that you didn't post that headline. LOL!

 

[RU-Hunter]

Half of the posts about SIVB are coming from right wingnuts saying it failed because they had diversity hires.

So if you want to take political shots, I can too.

It’s why I stopped posting in the CE board. It’s a total waste of time. If you guys don’t want to post trade ideas here, and would rather devolve into “inflation is fake”, “get woke, go broke”, “old man in basement is bad”, then I’ll stop posting here too.

Let’s keep the bullshit off this tread, and just talk stocks.

You bring a lot of great posts to this thread and you tell everyone to keep political comments out of this thread. Yet, it's hard to take that seriously when you yourself bring a political position with your signature.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

CPI LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2021 AS INFLATION EASES - Fidelity

Funny that you didn't post that headline. LOL!

Been waiting for this thread's Mary Poppins to chime in. "LOL." I kid... I kid....

 

[RUinPinehurst]

CPI LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2021 AS INFLATION EASES - Fidelity

Funny that you didn't post that headline. LOL!

Yes. Fidelity spins it. "Just a spoon full of sugar helps the medicine go down, the medicine go down...."

 

[T2Kplus20]

Been waiting for this thread's Mary Poppins to chime in. "LOL." I kid... I kid....

Some of us are not old and retired and are still working! :)
But I did post/check in about an hour ago. Great CPI print. Trend is going down, down, down.

 

[mildone]

careful, a few 'head in the sand types' don't feel politics belongs in a market discussion. That's like saying you can't discuss physics when talking about gravity.

Nah, it's because nobody actually ever "discusses politics". They just demonize each other or they blame each other. Which is the most moronic time-wasting example of people behaving like lobotomized sheep known to mankind. Party A demonizes and blames party B. Party B demonizes and blames party A.

It's two groups, each playing for the acclaim of their chosen echo-chamber. Pure genius - really helps to advance discussion on any subject! 🤣

There's a reason why virtually all forum owners, that allow political talk at all, do so by shoving it into a dark corner and walling it off. Because most of us don't want to witness the ceaseless episodes of Disorders on Display that a relative few of you are addicted to.

Drop the political bullshit or this thread will wind up getting locked or moved. Because one of you politically-obsessed snowflakes ALWAYS gets butthurt and runs to the mods and they have better things to do than play mommy and daddy to a bunch of childish idiots lobbing weak-ass insults at each other.

 

[RUTGERS95]

I'm predicting .75 more out of fed

Didn't you want to keep such inflammatory stuff out of this thread ?

ignore him, just flat out ignore him. He's not worth of intelligent discussion. He's like rutgersal where he can't help himself. I've come to only engage with those that want intellilectually honest discussion. It's one thing not to know, it's another to inject nonsensical bs into discussions

 

[Morrischiano]

careful, a few 'head in the sand types' don't feel politics belongs in a market discussion. That's like saying you can't discuss physics when talking about gravity.

Please take the bullshit to the CE board.

 

[RU-Hunter]

I'm predicting .75 more out of fed

ignore him, just flat out ignore him. He's not worth of intelligent discussion. He's like rutgersal where he can't help himself. I've come to only engage with those that want intellilectually honest discussion. It's one thing not to know, it's another to inject nonsensical bs into discussions

.75 total (reaching terminal rate)? I think .25 this month is a foregone conclusion

 

[T2Kplus20]

Agree, especially with the large commercial depositors. Classic example of “moral hazard” with no repercussions for those large commercial entities that didn’t follow best practices.

So, what if a company has $1b in cash? Do they have to spread it across 4,000 banks? LOL. That doesn't make sense.

 

[RUTGERS95]

.75 total (reaching terminal rate)? I think .25 this month is a foregone conclusion

Fed has nothing stopping it from raising with the par acceptance. Now we'll see how can manage assets, who was hired for their brains and not who they sleep with or which political spectrum they are on

.25 is happening and I predict 2 more at the same level. We won't get any reduction until we see a continued downward trend in spending/cc debt and unemployment

 

[RUTGERS95]

So, what if a company has $1b in cash? Do they have to spread it across 4,000 banks? LOL. That doesn't make sense.

no, they roll Tbills like everyone else. The problem here is hubris and lack of basic financial management principles. Oprah having 500mm in cash and not in t bills at cit, chase, etc, is just mindblowing.

 

[tom1944]

Volatility for a while, with an eventual downward trend toward the "October lows" would be my guess. The immediate banking crisis may have been averted, but the inflation challenge and inevitable move to higher Fed rates (and holding there) remain.

That would be good for me. I am halfway through my purchase goal for my granddaughters 529 and will not need the money for 15 years.

I would like to see lower prices for a little while.