Also, if credit requirements are tightened and people lose their jobs then the qualified buyer pool shrinks, existing listings sit on the market longer and prices flatline.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I disagree - the only reason the rate of increase has slowed significantly is because you are comparing it to an astronomical period of increases during the post-COVID era. Housing markets that are up 30%+ can’t continue to climb at that rate forever. And it’s not just people looking to trade up that want to move. There are people that would trade down but that’s an even tougher market because nobody builds on the low end anymore and in NJ anything below $500K is usually a townhouse or sh!t-box that needs a ton of work.
People making over $125k are losing their jobs faster than lower income Americans.
finance.yahoo.com
Wealthy Americans are getting hit hardest by the economy slowing down
Bank of America data shows cracks in wage growth and discretionary spending among higher-income households.
This has been happening for a long time. Lower income folks also experienced the highest wage gains. Even though the Fed thinks this is bad and that they should lose their jobs.People making over $125k are losing their jobs faster than lower income Americans.
Wealthy Americans are getting hit hardest by the economy slowing down
Bank of America data shows cracks in wage growth and discretionary spending among higher-income households.
Ya, at the lower wage level I still see help wanteds all over the place, meanwhile CNBC keeps telling me tech companies are cutting jobs pretty heavy.People making over $125k are losing their jobs faster than lower income Americans.
Wealthy Americans are getting hit hardest by the economy slowing down
Bank of America data shows cracks in wage growth and discretionary spending among higher-income households.
People that want to trade up need to sell their existing homes at a higher price. They can’t trade up if the existing home declines. You are really taking about affordability. Lower rates is like the tide. Everything will go up which runs counter to your argument that it will lower prices.
Credit tightening will help, but supply is wayyy short and is causing the crazy prices. I just read an article that a home in Somerset had 40 bidders above asking. And as I noted earlier, my daughter was way down the list (and she bid above asking) of 24 bidders for a home in Old Bridge…. A TINY (1,500 sq ft. old $1/2 million home with a 33 year old kitchen. Economics 101; huge supply/demand imbalance….very few are selling as they are unwilling to give up on their low rate. A large majority of this country have a rate below 4%. If you are retired and would like to move to Florida, do you sell a home with a 2.75% interest rate and buy a home with a 6.75% rate?
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The ABNB thing has also opened the door up to people owning multiple homes. I know more then a couple people doing this. And this cuts the number of houses for primary residents.
Inflation continues to plummet (PPI YoY down to 2.3%, leading indicator for CPI):
www.cnbc.com
Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease
Wholesale prices rose less than expected in April, according to a Labor Department report Thursday.
You guys ever see this? It's a daily inflation indicator for the US and UK. UK numbers are really scary.
Just found it so can't vouch for its accuracy but interesting:
Just found it so can't vouch for its accuracy but interesting:
I really don’t understand what the catalyst for a SP500 move over 4200 would be before the end of the summer.
Inflation dumping, Fed pause, earnings well above expectations, etc. Pretty simple stuff.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Jaw dropping thread full of wealth transfer data. A must read
This one in particular made me say, holy shit
This one in particular made me say, holy shit
So on an inflation adjusted basis, what is the equilient amount? Not as astronomical as would first appear.
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TQQQ is down 9% in the past 1 year while the Nasdaq index is up 4%... facts. Anyone can look it up. You should have told people that you started buying at the beginning of the year. YTD, TQQQ is up 70% compared to 18% for the Nasdaq index.
Nope, all my TQQQ purchases were in 2022. Bought in May, June, Sept, and heavy in Oct. Currently up about 40% and being patient. I will buy more if it dips back below $20, but otherwise, got plenty. I will hold until the QQQ gets back to ATHs (or close to it). No rush.
When do people start worrying about deflation? You all know that's coming soon. :)
thehill.com
Social Security COLA to drop significantly in 2024, senior group predicts
Social Security recipients shouldn’t expect 2024’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to be as significant as 2023’s, despite warnings that beneficiaries are losing their purchasing power.
thehill.com
Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke Monday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
No rate cut this year.
Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
The total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period.
and CC debt tops 1 trillion for first time ever.Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
The total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period.
I've said for too long; feds need to restrict lending
Credit card delinquency rate was 2.25%, up from 1.5% the previous year. Still not really a problem and won’t be unless unemployment goes up 100 bips. As a point of reference, cc delinquency has over 7% during the Great Recession.
Multiple rate cuts this year as inflation worries become deflation worries. Also, great to see uber-Hawk Bostic capitulate on the pause.Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke Monday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
No rate cut this year.
More likely? Definitely A. Inflation is plummeting, rate increases over, job market holding up, economy still growing, earnings beat expectations in Q1, etc.
Can gov'ment stupidity create a flash crash? Sure. Gotta buy heavy if it happens since the market will snap back in a blind of an eye.
In above post; “ all my TQQQ purchases were in 2022. Bought in May, June, Sept, and heavy in Oct.”
5/3/2023 post: “I started my TQQQ position just about 1 year ago. Up about 30%. TQQQ has been tracking very accurately.”
Did you forget about your purchases in early 2022?
1/31/2022. Post “Damn! I knew I should have bought more UPRO and TQQQ last week. Oh yes I did. LOL!”
2/10/2022. Post “Thankfully my long afternoon meeting ended early and I had the chance to buy a bit prior to the bell! Continued to add to my UPRO and TQQQ positions.”
2/18/2022. Post “I bought earlier this afternoon, prior to going on a nice family hike (daughter is off from school today and Monday). Just more TQQQ and UPRO.”
Nope. I traded TQQQ and many others several times over the past 15-16 months (as I learned about leveraged ETFs and figured out how to use them). I traded SOXL about 5 times, LABU at least 4 times, UPRO a few times, etc. However, my current large TQQQ position was created as per my post this morning.
I am currently holding positions with TQQQ, QLD, LABU, CURE, and UWM.
This guy is all over the place with his numbers. I say leave him alone and realize that 99% of what he says is just nonsense. He claims to be a long term investor, but all of a sudden has incredible timing on the most volatile securities. Not to mention that these are 3x leveraged securities in an index that is by itself very volatile.
Of course you traded perfectly. Like many here have said, you will only be believed if you post your trade in real time.
Long term investors don’t use leveraged ETFs because they are inefficient long-term vehicles. Moreover, 2023 is definitely a single stock pickers market.
And yeah, it’s weird to try to impress anonymous people with BullSh!t on a football forum.
I’m not trading much. And most of my swing trades have gone sideways (except the regional banks shorts I put in in March).
I’m waiting to see how this next earnings season is going to be. Market valuations are just too confounding to me with these uncertain headwinds.
Yeah so tell us how you effectively long-only traded TQQQ which is down over 50% in the last 16 months when the underlying Index is down about 16%. You must be some Fvcking trader. Take your leveraged ETF trading models to Renaissance or DE Shaw. They might hire a brilliant guy like you.
TQQQ is working just fine after 1-year of holding. Gotta expand your mindset and put in the research. The performance of these ETFs are available for everyone to analyze. There are plenty of things to avoid like most thematic options and ETFs with a small amount of assets (these funds don't perform as advertised due to lack of liquidity).
Once again, now is the time to give these ETFs a go, if interested. The market is still well off ATHs. The ETFs linked to broad indexes and large sectors have been nicely derisked.
By the way, I'm not the one demanding that everyone posts their trades everyday. Just here to learn myself and help educate others when I can.
Sorry you are getting so angry. I've been clear on when I have bought over the past 12 months. I've bought as high at $30'ish and as low as $17 and change. Current CB is $20-21. I will buy more if it dips back below $20.
I missed out on buying in December since I was waiting to see if it dips below $16 (it never it). Oh well.
Home Depot posts worst revenue miss in about 20 years, lowers forecast as consumers delay big projects
The home improvement retailer said customers are taking on smaller projects and skipping big-ticket purchases, such as patio sets and grills.
Home Depot posts worst revenue miss in about 20 years, lowers forecast as consumers delay big projects
The home improvement retailer said customers are taking on smaller projects and skipping big-ticket purchases, such as patio sets and grills.
Probably a double whammy: some degree of customers generally spending less on capital projects, but also there was a huge pull forward of demand in 2020-2021. Everyone was doing home projects.
We painted a couple of rooms during the worst of it in spring 2020, and I remember waiting in massive lines that snaked around the Home Depot parking lot.
Still beat on earnings:Home Depot posts worst revenue miss in about 20 years, lowers forecast as consumers delay big projects
The home improvement retailer said customers are taking on smaller projects and skipping big-ticket purchases, such as patio sets and grills.
Earnings per share: $3.82 vs. $3.80 expected
Revenue: $37.26 billion vs. $38.28 billion expected
Seems like lumber prices really hurt (especially looking YoY). Not as bad as the headline suggests.
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