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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Still beat on earnings:

Earnings per share: $3.82 vs. $3.80 expected
Revenue: $37.26 billion vs. $38.28 billion expected

Seems like lumber prices really hurt (especially looking YoY). Not as bad as the headline suggests.
Starting buy some HD after the earning at $279.00 but will continue to add the next few days.

Brought a lot more UNH @ 480.00 it already dropped 50 points since April earnings. I think it goes no lower than $470 the 52 week low is around $463. It will go back close to its high $550 next earning season for over a 10% return in 2 months, earning around July 14-16.
If not, will hold it long term 6 months or a year.
 
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Sorry you are getting so angry. I've been clear on when I have bought over the past 12 months. I've bought as high at $30'ish and as low as $17 and change. Current CB is $20-21. I will buy more if it dips back below $20.

I missed out on buying in December since I was waiting to see if it dips below $16 (it never it). Oh well.
Well the previous poster displayed your posts from Jan of 22 saying you bought TQQQ when it was in the $60-$70s.

Your mantra is that you buy leveraged ETF and if they go down, you buy at steady intervals. Nothing to worry about. STONKS always go up. Buy and hold and buy more.

Now, that your leveraged ETF has massively underperformed the NASDAQ, you’re claiming that you’re trading in and out of that falling knife position effectively.

I’m not mad. I just don’t suffer fools.
 
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Well the previous poster displayed your posts from Jan of 22 saying you bought TQQQ when it was in the $60-$70s.

Your mantra is that you buy leveraged ETF and if they go down, you buy at steady intervals. Nothing to worry about. STONKS always go up. Buy and hold and buy more.

Now, that your leveraged ETF has massively underperformed the NASDAQ, you’re claiming that you’re trading in and out of that falling knife position effectively.

I’m not mad. I just don’t suffer fools.
Takes a while to figure out new things. It’s about putting in the research and gaining experience. Sorry you are so mad. My TQQQ was underwater when I bought big in Oct. Just need patience and confidence in your analysis.

You’ll get there! :)
 
Sorry you are getting so angry. I've been clear on when I have bought over the past 12 months. I've bought as high at $30'ish and as low as $17 and change. Current CB is $20-21. I will buy more if it dips back below $20.

I missed out on buying in December since I was waiting to see if it dips below $16 (it never it). Oh well.

I noted three of your posts that indicate that you made several trades from late Jan to mid February when prices were in the $50+ range, so how is your highest price $30ish?
 
I noted three of your posts that indicate that you made several trades from late Jan to mid February when prices were in the $50+ range, so how is your highest price $30ish?
Pretty simple answer (and one already covered).
 
and CC debt tops 1 trillion for first time ever.

I've said for too long; feds need to restrict lending

I’m guessing these figures don’t include ‘buy now pay later’ financings. I have to believe that sector is going to look really ugly in a downturn
 
it does when inflation is high and savings continue to decline
But inflation is not high. Even the awfully lagged CPI is set to plummet over the next few prints. Add in real-time shelter, YoY inflation will be well under control 2%.
 
But inflation is not high. Even the awfully lagged CPI is set to plummet over the next few prints. Add in real-time shelter, YoY inflation will be well under control 2%.
look man, I'm with you on your overall view but inflation is still elevated and it's not debatable. food prices, energy, etc etc, all those everyday things are all high and not coming down really. sure other items are but wages have kept pace and yet spending (non durable goods) continues to remain elevated or higher on a price basis. that is inflation that hits the wallet
 
look man, I'm with you on your overall view but inflation is still elevated and it's not debatable. food prices, energy, etc etc, all those everyday things are all high and not coming down really. sure other items are but wages have kept pace and yet spending (non durable goods) continues to remain elevated or higher on a price basis. that is inflation that hits the wallet
Definitely agree on high prices. Those are widespread throughout the economy.
 
Question for you and @RUTGERS95 - does CC really matter when the job market is so strong?

Like any leverage, it’s fine until the cash flow to service it deteriorates…then it becomes an issue.

I’m not a doom and gloom person, but the muddier the downturn, the dirtier we get managing through it. Excessive household leverage (with perhaps forms of ‘off balance sheet’ debt hiding in the shadows, like BNPL) will make a future downturn muddier.
 
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look man, I'm with you on your overall view but inflation is still elevated and it's not debatable. food prices, energy, etc etc, all those everyday things are all high and not coming down really. sure other items are but wages have kept pace and yet spending (non durable goods) continues to remain elevated or higher on a price basis. that is inflation that hits the wallet
Correct me if I’m wrong, but for the most part high prices are here to stay absent a dramatic deflationary environment. So, even if inflation slows or flatlines, that doesn’t mean my local slice of plain pizza drops below $3.25. All I can say is the price-gouging of local businesses and services is outrageous and yet they have recovered from COVID many times over AND benefitted from PPP handouts. And real estate prices aren’t going anywhere unless there is a correction or inventory levels increase. EVERYTHING is still so f’in expensive.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong, but for the most part high prices are here to stay absent a dramatic deflationary environment. So, even if inflation slows or flatlines, that doesn’t mean my local slice of plain pizza drops below $3.25. All I can say is the price-gouging of local businesses and services is outrageous and yet they have recovered from COVID many times over AND benefitted from PPP handouts. And real estate prices aren’t going anywhere unless there is a correction or inventory levels increase. EVERYTHING is still so f’in expensive.
To add to your point, most restaurants and small businesses (and some larger businesses) have incorporated a 3% charge for credit cards which was rarely seen prior to the inflation surge. Who carries much cash these days? I fear that 3% charge is here to stay also.
 
To add to your point, most restaurants and small businesses (and some larger businesses) have incorporated a 3% charge for credit cards which was rarely seen prior to the inflation surge. Who carries much cash these days? I fear that 3% charge is here to stay also.
+1 to you and Aldo. Inflation and high prices are different things. 0% inflation means prices stay the same. You need negative inflation (deflation) for actual prices to go down. Not gonna happen.

But remember, we all have experience robust wage growth, so "real inflation" has been modest.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong, but for the most part high prices are here to stay absent a dramatic deflationary environment. So, even if inflation slows or flatlines, that doesn’t mean my local slice of plain pizza drops below $3.25. All I can say is the price-gouging of local businesses and services is outrageous and yet they have recovered from COVID many times over AND benefitted from PPP handouts. And real estate prices aren’t going anywhere unless there is a correction or inventory levels increase. EVERYTHING is still so f’in expensive.
i've referred to the sticky inflation for some time.

I think it comes down as we are from normalized and spending was keeping it high. we are seeing spending change of sorts and with banks having demand deposit withdrawls to larger banks, lending will be more restricted which is great
 
To add to your point, most restaurants and small businesses (and some larger businesses) have incorporated a 3% charge for credit cards which was rarely seen prior to the inflation surge. Who carries much cash these days? I fear that 3% charge is here to stay also.
agree
I try to shop away from this or make a comment where I see it to express dissatisfaction

I also don't tip nearly as much or often. Tipping is out of control if you ask me and besides, making minimum wage now defeats the need to tip. had a server ask me why only 5% and I said you're making minimum wage for this so no need for me tip, I was being generous:) look on his face was priceless with all his liberal buttons he was sporting as flare
 
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agree
I try to shop away from this or make a comment where I see it to express dissatisfaction

I also don't tip nearly as much or often. Tipping is out of control if you ask me and besides, making minimum wage now defeats the need to tip. had a server ask me why only 5% and I said you're making minimum wage for this so no need for me tip, I was being generous:) look on his face was priceless with all his liberal buttons he was sporting as flare
That’s a little bit too cheap, 5%. We sometime tip less than the 20%. I will have more take out than dining in a restaurant which reduces the bill. I do see less people dining out at restaurants.

This is like when I explain how with the doubling or tripling of pizza places in the last 20-30 years, how the pizza prices should go down with more supply but instead the price just continues to go up. Normally if they kept the same prices, the pizza owners wouldn’t be able to survive so they learn that they have to increase prices instead of battling for customers by lowering prices. They realize they have a finite number of customers that will pay most any increase in price but eat pizza less frequently. The ingredients prices have not even come close to the increase in pizza prices. I see they charge $40 in Jersey City for a pizza and will be the future price for pizza everywhere, I pay about $22-24 a pizza now. Another reason why they can rationalize their increases because a pizza can feed 4 individuals with 2 slices each, so that about a 5-6 dollar meal for each individual. Where else you going to get a cheaper meal?

Don't get me started on the price of a 20 oz bottle of Diet coke.
 
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but for the most part high prices are here to stay absent a dramatic deflationary environment. So, even if inflation slows or flatlines, that doesn’t mean my local slice of plain pizza drops below $3.25. All I can say is the price-gouging of local businesses and services is outrageous and yet they have recovered from COVID many times over AND benefitted from PPP handouts. And real estate prices aren’t going anywhere unless there is a correction or inventory levels increase. EVERYTHING is still so f’in expensive.
I'm out hiking the Appalachian Trail and went thru Harper's Ferry WV yesterday, stopping in a High Street restaurant for a cheeseburger, fries, and Diet Coke. With tip: $25. And it was nothing special. Crazy. Not sure how long this gouging can continue, especially restaurants. Near a breaking point methinks.
 
agree
I try to shop away from this or make a comment where I see it to express dissatisfaction

I also don't tip nearly as much or often. Tipping is out of control if you ask me and besides, making minimum wage now defeats the need to tip. had a server ask me why only 5% and I said you're making minimum wage for this so no need for me tip, I was being generous:) look on his face was priceless with all his liberal buttons he was sporting as flare
LOL! Flair:

flair-office-space.gif
 
I'm out hiking the Appalachian Trail and went thru Harper's Ferry WV yesterday, stopping in a High Street restaurant for a cheeseburger, fries, and Diet Coke. With tip: $25. And it was nothing special. Crazy. Not sure how long this gouging can continue, especially restaurants. Near a breaking point methinks.
I visited Harper's Ferry during a Civil War guided tour to Antietam. And WV has a "low" cost of living. Crazy cost.
 
To add to your point, most restaurants and small businesses (and some larger businesses) have incorporated a 3% charge for credit cards which was rarely seen prior to the inflation surge. Who carries much cash these days? I fear that 3% charge is here to stay also.
I’m shocked CC companies are allowing this to happen - and it’s rampant these days. I believe some CC companies used to prohibit the practice and crackdown on business that did it. But now business owners are jacking up prices AND passing along one of their main transaction costs. Worst of all many times they do it without you even knowing.
 
I’m shocked CC companies are allowing this to happen - and it’s rampant these days. I believe some CC companies used to prohibit the practice and crackdown on business that did it. But now business owners are jacking up prices AND passing along one of their main transaction costs. Worst of all many times they do it without you even knowing.
Both of my credit cards give ME 4% back on restaurants. Who do you think is supposed to pay for that? The days of 1% transaction fees are long gone and frankly why should the restaurant cover your convenience and benefit costs? It's the CC companies that are driving it in the first place. While also paying higher wages and medical benefit expenses.

I don't know what their true materials and labor increases (and rents and utilities) have been been let's not pretend they haven't seen serious inflation to deal with.

BTW all three of my favorite local great pizza places charge around $17-$18 w/ a topping. (Franks Ringoes, Taste of Naples Ringoes, Joe's Flemington)
 
Outstanding quarter for Target. Double beat and a healthy reduction in inventory. Well done!
 
Fantastic episode of the Compound this week (w/WSJ journalist Dion Rabouin). Segments on inflation and the Fed are highlights:

Ya, that was a good show. Though he does believe that parts of inflation will remain sticky, and squeezing out the next 3% will not be as easy as the first 3+%.

Subscribed to Dion's youtube, but his vid's are too dry. At least on first take.
 
Outstanding quarter for Target. Double beat and a healthy reduction in inventory. Well done!
On the MRKT Call blog, Guy Adami was speaking about bulls and bears looking at the same chart( I think it was the S&P, though it may have been retail or a specific retailer) and seeing different things.

TGT's chart is a pretty good example of what he was talking about. It is stuck in a range for the past year. Now is that, as the bears may see it, a stock stuck in the mud? Or as the bulls may see it, a stock building a base?

I think they might both be right, and it's really a matter of timeframe(I think Carter Worth was making this point in his rebuttal) . The likes of TGT, may continue sideways for awhiles longer, but eventually, and this may be another year or more, it should do well taking off from this base.
 
Ya, that was a good show. Though he does believe that parts of inflation will remain sticky, and squeezing out the next 3% will not be as easy as the first 3+%.

Subscribed to Dion's youtube, but his vid's are too dry. At least on first take.
He's a good reporter, so yes, little dry! Not a TV personality. :)

The CPI math is now in our favor. May and June 2022 prints were 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. That's the crazy high peak and new comparator base. If we grow around 0.3% for each of May and June 2023, the YoY CPI will plummet to 3.4%. And this is before the CPI garbage shelter metric catches up with reality. We will be looking at a 2 handle pretty soon.
 
Elon is a natural treasure. Great AI quote:

“There’s a strong probability that it will make life much better and that we’ll have an age of abundance. And there’s some chance that it goes wrong and destroys humanity,” Musk told CNBC anchor David Faber.

LOL!

 
I see TJX beat as well.

Just checked their chart, and no matter the time frame, all time, 10 year, 5 year, it is always a nice consistent bottom left to upper right.

Little caveat in that their one year chart is flat over the last 6 months. If it can break out into the mid to upper 80's, probably a good bet it keeps on that long term upward trajectory.
 
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Looking at some retailers head to head over the last 10 years. Best performers, in order.

1) LOW up 400%
2) HD up 280%
3)TJX Up 210%
4) TGT upt 120%
5) WMT up 100%

Those are roundabout #'s, and not total returns. But HD has the best div yield currently in that bunch, WMT the lowest.
 
Looking at some retailers head to head over the last 10 years. Best performers, in order.

1) LOW up 400%
2) HD up 280%
3)TJX Up 210%
4) TGT upt 120%
5) WMT up 100%

Those are roundabout #'s, and not total returns. But HD has the best div yield currently in that bunch, WMT the lowest.
Buy low and hold for the long term, they eventually will go up if they are quality stocks. HD is close to 52 week lows. It’s all in the timing.
 
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The one year charts of those same stocks.

1)TJX
2)WMT
3)LOW
4)HD
5)TGT

TGT dragged down by a big gap down at the early stages of this time frame. They rank 3rd in the 9 month, though still in the red. As are LOW and HD.
 
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Both of my credit cards give ME 4% back on restaurants. Who do you think is supposed to pay for that? The days of 1% transaction fees are long gone and frankly why should the restaurant cover your convenience and benefit costs?
CCs aren’t just a convenience to the customer - it’s drives the merchant’s entire business. In that regard, are you saying the merchant isn’t supposed to pay anything for guaranteed customer payment and the ability to accept something other than cash? If the customer can’t pay, it’s the CCs that bear the risk. The CC company doesn’t go to Luigi’s Pizza and say I need that $21 back for the pizza that your customer can’t afford this month. So why do you think a merchant should be passing along their transaction fee to customers? Not to mention when the local merchants actually get cash watch if it actually goes in the register or the owners pocket.
 
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Buy low and hold for the long term, they eventually will go up if they are quality stocks. HD is close to 52 week lows. It’s all in the timing.
52 weeks lows look to be in the $260's.

3 year lows(just after rebounding stronger off the covid lows) are around $245.

Highs from late 2020 were around $290, and was trading in a $270-$290 range for about 6 months.

Just looking for potential support levels. It's up today, a tick under $290, but I should prob buy here and add if it get's into the $270's or $260's.

Though looking at fwd earnings estimates. Expected to be lower yoy this year(they are in their 2024 accounting year) with only modest growth in the next 2 years. 2026 eps is pretty much in line with 2023(last year). Def explains why the stock is trading at a P/E below it's historical avg.
 
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The one year charts of those same stocks.

1)TJX
2)WMT
3)LOW
4)HD
5)TGT

TGT dragged down by a big gap down at the early stages of this time frame. They rank 3rd in the 9 month, though still in the red. As are LOW and HD.
Craziest stat I heard this morning = if you take out AI related stocks the market would be down this year. AI is just this years metaverse. Everyone is, and has been, working on AI = but once ChatGPT went mainstream companies jumped on the bandwagon. NVDA has done this every single cycle = from autonomous vehicles…to crypto…to metaverse…to AI…and now you have AMD playing the same game LOL.
 
Not to mention when the local merchants actually get cash watch if it actually goes in the register or the owners pocket.
An owner stealing from the register? Aside from skirting the tax man, he's not really stealing, it's his register.
 
Craziest stat I heard this morning = if you take out AI related stocks the market would be down this year. AI is just this years metaverse. Everyone is, and has been, working on AI = but once ChatGPT went mainstream companies jumped on the bandwagon. NVDA has done this every single cycle = from autonomous vehicles…to crypto…to metaverse…to AI…and now you have AMD playing the same game LOL.
Difference here is, while many argued, "what is the actual use of crypto" or "who is actually living in the metaverse" with the answers to each being, "I have no clue". AI has a very clear use. Pretty clearly this can do the work of people, which may not be great for workers, but would lower costs of companies pretty considerably.

I think AI and autonomous do go hand in hand though. TSLA is probably a big time beneficiary of that integration in the long run.
 
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Difference here is, while many argued, "what is the actual use of crypto" or "who is actually living in the metaverse" with the answers to each being, "I have no clue". AI has a very clear use. Pretty clearly this can do the work of people, which may not be great for workers, but would lower costs of companies pretty considerably.

I think AI and autonomous do go hand in hand though. TSLA is probably a big time beneficiary of that integration in the long run.
Sometimes a "next big thing" that is hyped.....actually turns out to be the next big thing.
 
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