OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Was this posted here? Saw it somewhere:

Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen tells investors to ride the 'big wave' of artificial intelligence and stop focusing on recession odds

"I'm actually pretty bullish," the founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management said at a private event, according to Bloomberg.

markets.businessinsider.com

Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen reportedly urged investors not to miss the "big wave" of artificial intelligence and to stop fixating on a recession.

The founder of Point72 Asset Management and owner of the New York Mets said at a private SALT conference event Tuesday that focusing too much on recession odds may lead investors to overlook AI investing opportunities, sources told Bloomberg.

 

[T2Kplus20]

More awesome guests:

 

[rurahrah000]

GTC order for SNOW in at 173 ( looks like a support level). Thanks for the trade idea.

$184 is also resistance and it failed today. Let's see what next week brings. I bought at $171 and sold calls at $205 expiring next friday.

 

[RU-05]

Was put into AI at $20, and just had it called away at $24. Made 7ish% in premium(one of the few stocks with volatility of late).

When it was clear this was getting called away on Friday, I sold next weeks $23.50 puts for about 2.5%.


I was similarly in and out of STNE. Called away at $11. Stock went up over $14, before coming down into the low $13's after earnings, I'm thinking $12 which it stuck under for a year, bouncing off 5 times, should now provide support, so I'll sell upcoming $12.50 puts on Monday. Premium not as great here, have to look out 2 weeks to get over 1% premium.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Was put into AI at $20, and just had it called away at $24. Made 7ish% in premium(one of the few stocks with volatility of late).

When it was clear this was getting called away on Friday, I sold next weeks $23.50 puts for about 2.5%.


I was similarly in and out of STNE. Called away at $11. Stock went up over $14, before coming down into the low $13's after earnings, I'm thinking $12 which it stuck under for a year, bouncing off 5 times, should now provide support, so I'll sell upcoming $12.50 puts on Monday. Premium not as great here, have to look out 2 weeks to get over 1% premium.

^^^^^ Uh?
LOL.

 

[RU-05]

^^^^^ Uh?
LOL.

I guess your questioning my STNE trades?

Made 20ish% on the trade plus whatever total premium(would have to dig through the transactions to find the total).

Could have been better, sure, but I was selling calls based on that resistance level(and I've been in and out when it was rejected off that level and picked it up again lower, again would have to dig through the transactions), and now will sell puts off that support.

Might look better if you think of it as completely different trades.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I guess your questioning my STNE trades?

Made 20ish% on the trade plus whatever total premium(would have to dig through the transactions to find the total).

Could have been better, sure, but I was selling calls based on that resistance level(and I've been in and out when it was rejected off that level and picked it up again lower, again would have to dig through the transactions), and now will sell puts off that resistance.

Might look better if you think of it as completely different trades.

No, just still don't understand options lingo! :)

 

[RU-05]

No, just still don't understand options lingo! :)

Oh, ha.

Anyways, it was stuck in a well defined range for a year. Took advantage of that for awhile trading options.

But it does look like it has broken out of that range.

Buffet stock.

 

[rurahrah000]

Was put into AI at $20, and just had it called away at $24. Made 7ish% in premium(one of the few stocks with volatility of late).

When it was clear this was getting called away on Friday, I sold next weeks $23.50 puts for about 2.5%.


I was similarly in and out of STNE. Called away at $11. Stock went up over $14, before coming down into the low $13's after earnings, I'm thinking $12 which it stuck under for a year, bouncing off 5 times, should now provide support, so I'll sell upcoming $12.50 puts on Monday. Premium not as great here, have to look out 2 weeks to get over 1% premium.

I sold $28 calls on AI thursday which expired worthless. I will try to sell more at a different strike price this week. Don't mind being called out. I will buy the sock in again.

^^^^^ Uh?
LOL.

No, just still don't understand options lingo! :)

You don't have to advertise your ignorance. Although I don't know how anyone can have a lower opinion of your knowledge level no matter how hard you keep trying.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I sold $28 calls on AI thursday which expired worthless. I will try to sell more at a different strike price this week. Don't mind being called out. I will buy the sock in again.




You don't have to advertise your ignorance. Although I don't know how anyone can have a lower opinion of your knowledge level no matter how hard you keep trying.

I see you are still mad at my recent success. It’s unbecoming and says a lot about your character.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Ideas for value plays:

10 Best Value Stocks to Buy for the Long Term

The stocks of these high-quality companies look cheap today.

www.morningstar.com

Morningstar very bullish on PYPL (down to a 52-week low of ~$60):

PayPal Earnings: Growth Picks Up, Strong Margin Improvement

Analyst Note | Updated May 09, 2023
PayPal had a strong start to the year, with the company outperforming expectations for the quarter. While we are pleased with the quarter, we see no major surprises and will maintain our $135 fair value estimate. We continue to see shares of the narrow-moat company as undervalued.

Net revenue grew 9% year over year, or 10% excluding currency impacts. Volume was up 12% on a constant-currency basis. In both cases, this marks modest acceleration from the previous quarter. However, we continue to believe investors should focus less on near-term absolute growth, and more on relative growth. As such, we are encouraged by management’s statement that they believe they picked up share in the quarter. We see holding or improving share as the most critical factor in maintaining the company’s moat and long-term growth prospects.

Active account growth remains stalled, and accounts actually declined slightly sequentially. However, we think management’s strategy to pivot toward driving more transactions from its existing consumer base makes sense. To this end, we are encouraged by the fact that transactions per active account grew 13% year over year, maintaining the strong growth we’ve seen in recent quarters.

We believe there is significant room for PayPal to improve margins over time and see the quarter as providing further evidence of this potential. Adjusted operating margins improved to 22.7% from 20.7% last year. Further, adjusted margins exclude the impact of stock-based compensation, which declined 21% year over year. On a GAAP basis, margins improved 320 basis points year over year.

PayPal bought back $1.4 billion in stock during the quarter and management expects stock repurchases to be about $4 billion in 2023. This would be in line with the 2022 level and suggests that the vast majority of free cash flow this year will be returned to shareholders. Given that we see shares as undervalued, we view repurchases as a good use of cash.

 

[rurahrah000]

I see you are still mad at my recent success. It’s unbecoming and says a lot about your character.

What success are you referring to? I believe that you are successful at looking at looking back at a chart and finding the high point and low point, but not much else.

 

[Goo]

Speaking on CNBC, Kashkari also said services inflation remained entrenched and that "it may be that we have to go north of 6%" to get it back to the Fed's 2% target.

Close call' on US June rate hike or pause

 

[Goo]

When they said 4, it was really 5
When they said 5, it was really 6
When they said 6. It…..

 

[T2Kplus20]

Speaking on CNBC, Kashkari also said services inflation remained entrenched and that "it may be that we have to go north of 6%" to get it back to the Fed's 2% target.

Close call' on US June rate hike or pause

Kashkari already capitulated and indirectly said no rate increase for June. The majority of Fed members support a pause. Can things change? Of course. However, CPI continues to plummet and the next few prints are going to be eye opening. Do the math for yourself. The data is public.

 

[T2Kplus20]

YoY core already down to 2% using real-time shelter data. Powell and other Fed members know this:

 

[Goo]

Kashkari already capitulated and indirectly said no rate increase for June. The majority of Fed members support a pause. Can things change? Of course. However, CPI continues to plummet and the next few prints are going to be eye opening. Do the math for yourself. The data is public.

So, you’re saying he was misquoted? That article was published this morning.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Any opinions on BUD? If it were to drop more into the high 40s low 50s, I think it could be interesting. Controversy might knock it down for a bit but often these things are temporary.

 

[RUDead]

Kashkari already capitulated and indirectly said no rate increase for June. The majority of Fed members support a pause. Can things change? Of course. However, CPI continues to plummet and the next few prints are going to be eye opening. Do the math for yourself. The data is public.

So you are taking what he "indirectly" said over what he actually said. Sounds about right.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So you are taking what he "indirectly" said over what he actually said. Sounds about right.

When the biggest wacko hawk on the Fed, essentially says, I can't hit you with another increase in June, but I'm still going to try to get you bastards in July, that's a clear capitulation on where the votes are for June.

Not complicated.

 

[RUDead]

When the biggest wacko hawk on the Fed, essentially says, I can't hit you with another increase in June, but I'm still going to try to get you bastards in July, that's a clear capitulation on where the votes are for June.

Not complicated.

It appears to be very complicated for you because you are always wrong on inflation and Fed hikes.

BTW, Jamie Dimon also just stated that he expects higher rates in the future and everyone should prepare for it.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It appears to be very complicated for you because you are always wrong on inflation and Fed hikes.

BTW, Jamie Dimon also just stated that he expects higher rates in the future and everyone should prepare for it.

Dimon also said rates are going to 7-8%. LOL! Sorry, don't fight the Fed. It's over.

 

[Morrischiano]

Speaking on CNBC, Kashkari also said services inflation remained entrenched and that "it may be that we have to go north of 6%" to get it back to the Fed's 2% target.

Close call' on US June rate hike or pause

It does seem like the FED is dead serious about getting inflation under 3%

 

[T2Kplus20]

It does seem like the FED is dead serious about getting inflation under 3%

Just wait about 3 months. Problem solved. Lagging math is already baked.

Or use real-time shelter data. CPI core is already at 2%. Powell knows this, which explains the pause.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Ideas for value plays:

10 Best Value Stocks to Buy for the Long Term

The stocks of these high-quality companies look cheap today.

www.morningstar.com

Morningstar very bullish on PYPL (down to a 52-week low of ~$60):

PayPal Earnings: Growth Picks Up, Strong Margin Improvement

Analyst Note | Updated May 09, 2023
PayPal had a strong start to the year, with the company outperforming expectations for the quarter. While we are pleased with the quarter, we see no major surprises and will maintain our $135 fair value estimate. We continue to see shares of the narrow-moat company as undervalued.

Net revenue grew 9% year over year, or 10% excluding currency impacts. Volume was up 12% on a constant-currency basis. In both cases, this marks modest acceleration from the previous quarter. However, we continue to believe investors should focus less on near-term absolute growth, and more on relative growth. As such, we are encouraged by management’s statement that they believe they picked up share in the quarter. We see holding or improving share as the most critical factor in maintaining the company’s moat and long-term growth prospects.

Active account growth remains stalled, and accounts actually declined slightly sequentially. However, we think management’s strategy to pivot toward driving more transactions from its existing consumer base makes sense. To this end, we are encouraged by the fact that transactions per active account grew 13% year over year, maintaining the strong growth we’ve seen in recent quarters.

We believe there is significant room for PayPal to improve margins over time and see the quarter as providing further evidence of this potential. Adjusted operating margins improved to 22.7% from 20.7% last year. Further, adjusted margins exclude the impact of stock-based compensation, which declined 21% year over year. On a GAAP basis, margins improved 320 basis points year over year.

PayPal bought back $1.4 billion in stock during the quarter and management expects stock repurchases to be about $4 billion in 2023. This would be in line with the 2022 level and suggests that the vast majority of free cash flow this year will be returned to shareholders. Given that we see shares as undervalued, we view repurchases as a good use of cash.

That is one of the tech names that's been a loser for me. 70s had been a good support area but seems broken for now. Not my favorite in the space (V, MA are by far) so not too much of a loss. Hopefully, this report is correct but I'm not optimistic of a turn that would happen any time soon.

 

[rutgersguy1]

AVGO been busting out to ATHs.

Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips

Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

AVGO been busting out to ATHs.

Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips

Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips

www.cnbc.com

Nice to see another semi rolling besides the big dog (NVDA).

 

[RUAldo]

That is one of the tech names that's been a loser for me. 70s had been a good support area but seems broken for now. Not my favorite in the space (V, MA are by far) so not too much of a loss. Hopefully, this report is correct but I'm not optimistic of a turn that would happen any time soon.

Yup, me too. Tied with Block as my worst performers. Hoping for a pop so I can bail at some point.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Yup, me too. Tied with Block as my worst performers. Hoping for a pop so I can bail at some point.

PYPL is about as far down the food chain as my conservative nature would let me go and I've said before here it's a distant third to V and MA for me. Block, SOFI or whatever similar type name are not in my risk tolerance.

I don't know that PYPL has any catalyst to move it meaningfully forward any time soon.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Bought back into WOLF at 40. Looking as though investors like the price and prospects.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Netflix password sharing crackdown rolls out in the U.S.

After months of anticipation, Netflix began its password sharing crackdown in the United States.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Netflix password sharing crackdown rolls out in the U.S.

After months of anticipation, Netflix began its password sharing crackdown in the United States.

www.cnbc.com

This crackdown and new ad tier should increase the value of their customers. Sounds bullish for NFLX.

 

[rutgersguy1]

This crackdown and new ad tier should increase the value of their customers. Sounds bullish for NFLX.

Well the news that it was coming had been out for awhile. It’s been tested in other international markets and now it’s being done here.

I’m sure it’s in the stock already but we’ll see if it meets or beats expectations of what people may do.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Bought back into WOLF at 40. Looking as though investors like the price and prospects.

WOLF is trading close to $50 now. So, if you are saying you bought WOLF in the past and didn't post your trade in real-time, @rurahrah000 is going to lose his sh!t and call you a liar.

However, normal folks like me will believe you and say thanks for the idea. I have been reading about WOLF over the past few months. Still not profitable yet, but their tech looks outstanding.

 

[rurahrah000]

WOLF is trading close to $50 now. So, if you are saying you bought WOLF in the past and didn't post your trade in real-time, @rurahrah000 is going to lose his sh!t and call you a liar.

However, normal folks like me will believe you and say thanks for the idea. I have been reading about WOLF over the past few months. Still not profitable yet, but their tech looks outstanding.

Don't try to change the subject. You know what you are. I wouldn't call yourself normal. Big difference between what others do and what you do.

I am just trying to keep you honest. It is working well. I notice that you no longer post nonsense such as "Big buying day", "Loaded up on LABU, SOXL, TQQQ" garbage.

 

[rurahrah000]

Bought back into WOLF at 40. Looking as though investors like the price and prospects.

Nice gain within 1 week.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

The vitriol in this thread, and on this board in general, is FUBAR.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The vitriol in this thread, and on this board in general, is FUBAR.

I'm trying to keep things focused on investments, but you know who just keeps yelling at people.

 

[jtung230]

Just assume everyone is full of sh1t on the msg board.

 

[mildone]

Just assume everyone is full of sh1t on the msg board.

Always a safe position to take. 🙂