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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Accidentally wrote this in the Smoke thread earlier today..

Yesterday's "What are Your Thoughts?" saw Josh Brown thinking the SEC going at COIN was actually a positive, and that's why the stock didn't totally collapse, and then rebounded.


The thinking being, the SEC is finally figuring out how it wants to deal with Crypto, and once they do, companies like COIN will comply.
Clearly some in congress not happy with Gensler. Wait until they find out he applied to be an advisor to Binance in 2019.

 
All I know is today's MRKT Call title was "time to buy small caps?"

And I'm def waiting to see the AI plays calm down. AI being one PLTR another. Both of which I had called away a bunch of points ago.
I started learning about options and it in most cases, just seems like too much effort for too little value. And of course, selling calls may bite you. As for small caps, it's a no brainer. UWM isn't even at $35 yet (all time high was $66). Lots of room to run with this 2x play. Easy way to make money, just be patient. Broad indexes go up.
 
I saw an interview with the CEO and it wasn’t calling the police. It was engaging them and also following them out the store.

Potential for the unpredictable to happen and affect the safety of employees.
Yeah, he says he fired them for engaging physically with the robbers. Not for calling the cops, which he said they and everyone should always do. Seems the story has been misreported pretty badly, and now some people are turning it ridiculously political, as usual.

It kind of sounds like some employees let their egos dictate their actions rather than wisdom and probably company policy. But without more details from the investigation, it’s hard to be sure.
 
I started learning about options and it in most cases, just seems like too much effort for too little value. And of course, selling calls may bite you. As for small caps, it's a no brainer. UWM isn't even at $35 yet (all time high was $66). Lots of room to run with this 2x play. Easy way to make money, just be patient. Broad indexes go up.
Just sold SOFI July 21st $10 calls for about 2.5% premium.

On a pretty nice run, this allows for another 25% of upside, at which point it's getting pretty expensive.
 
I saw an interview with the CEO and it wasn’t calling the police. It was engaging them and also following them out the store.

Potential for the unpredictable to happen and affect the safety of employees.
And customers as well, say the thiefs start shooting or something.
It kind of sounds like some employees let their egos dictate their actions rather than wisdom and probably company policy. But without more details from the investigation, it’s hard to be sure.
Was def against company policy, as that was why they were fired. But I don't know if it's ego, as there is a common sense element of "hey these guys are stealing stuff, I should stop that". I also wonder if they really knew what the company policy was.
 
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Just sold SOFI July 21st $10 calls for about 2.5% premium.

On a pretty nice run, this allows for another 25% of upside, at which point it's getting pretty expensive.
Peter Lynch, former manager of the Magellan Fund, said it best: “Most people water the weeds and cut the flowers — when they should do just the opposite."

😁
 
Peter Lynch, former manager of the Magellan Fund, said it best: “Most people water the weeds and cut the flowers — when they should do just the opposite."

😁

Sofi had been a weed in my portfolio, now it's looking more like a flower

But flowers do bloom and then die off, while weeds are resilient fockers.
 
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Sofi had been a weed in my portfolio, now it's looking more like a flower

But flowers do bloom and then die off, while weeds are resilient fockers.
SOFI has been hampered by student loan deferrals. Now that is ending, SOFI may be revalued.
 
I own LUV, really ugly downward trend since early 2021. Like MMM bought this as it was getting cheap, but should have waited for it to show signs of reversing trend.

Currently at the high end of the downward channel, hopefully it can break through that.

Current P/E of 30x, but EPS expected to be $2.68 in 2023, with strong growth beyond that. Though pretty mixed results relative to expectations over the last 3 years

Current price of $30. MS has a price target of $60.
 
And customers as well, say the thiefs start shooting or something.

Was def against company policy, as that was why they were fired. But I don't know if it's ego, as there is a common sense element of "hey these guys are stealing stuff, I should stop that". I also wonder if they really knew what the company policy was.
Maybe ego isn't the right word. But, IMO, interfering in a robbery is not really using common-sense in many/most cases.

To me, although there are exceptions to every rule, if someone wants to steal something and there's no real risk of physical harm in letting them do so, then I think common-sense dictates one should avoid any confrontation and let them have it. Because even when you know you'll be safe, like when you're armed, it's still potentially problematic to escalate things.

For instance, let's say I catch someone robbing my house and I confront them and wind up shooting them. First, I'm not sure robbery should be a capital offense. But less philosophically and more pragmatically, if I shoot somebody, even if I'm fully in the right, there's still a good chance I'm going to wind up having to hire a lawyer and spend tens of thousands ensuring I am cleared of any wrongdoing. And even if I know I'm not going to shoot an innocent bystander, I can't say the same for them if they are armed.

Most of the time, it's gonna be simpler, safer, and cheaper letting them get away, and just collecting insurance for whatever they took. Better to focus on noticing and remembering any details that might help apprehend them.
 
Maybe ego isn't the right word. But, IMO, interfering in a robbery is not really using common-sense in many/most cases.

To me, although there are exceptions to every rule, if someone wants to steal something and there's no real risk of physical harm in letting them do so, then I think common-sense dictates one should avoid any confrontation and let them have it. Because even when you know you'll be safe, like when you're armed, it's still potentially problematic to escalate things.

For instance, let's say I catch someone robbing my house and I confront them and wind up shooting them. First, I'm not sure robbery should be a capital offense. But less philosophically and more pragmatically, if I shoot somebody, even if I'm fully in the right, there's still a good chance I'm going to wind up having to hire a lawyer and spend tens of thousands ensuring I am cleared of any wrongdoing. And even if I know I'm not going to shoot an innocent bystander, I can't say the same for them if they are armed.

Most of the time, it's gonna be simpler, safer, and cheaper letting them get away, and just collecting insurance for whatever they took. Better to focus on noticing and remembering any details that might help apprehend them.
Maybe this is an interesting debate as to common sense.

As I think the preliminary reaction of "someone is doing wrong, I should stop that" would be "common sense".

Where as what you describe is more in depth reasoning, and while it certainly makes sense, I'm not sure it's "common", because it does require significantly more thought to get there, and in a situation like a robbery, there isn't time to reason out the potential scenarios.

Sometimes my boss will complain about people not having common sense, but the situation's to which he points often don't seem like common sense at all.
 
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Retail employees should just let the robbery/theft proceed. Cooperate. A home burglary or intrusion/invasion into one's home, though? Nah. I'm going to take down the perp/s. Just me, I guess. But I draw a line.
 
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CEOs open themselves to class action suits over this. Should not allow robbery
 
CEOs open themselves to class action suits over this. Should not allow robbery
It’s not about allowing robbery. It’s about employee safety. It not their job to protect the company’s assets against thieves. If they were injured or killed, the company could be liable.
 
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It’s not about allowing robbery. It’s about employee safety. It not their job to protect the company’s assets against thieves. If they were injured or killed, the company could be liable.
Spot on…if employee was injured/killed lawsuit would be filed within a week for negligence, failure to have proper employee safety standards, etc.
 
It’s not about allowing robbery. It’s about employee safety. It not their job to protect the company’s assets against thieves. If they were injured or killed, the company could be liable.
If you are worried about employee safety, hire a trained security officer. Both problems solved!
 
I see from the EV thread GM joins F in hopping on the TSLA charging network.

Both GM and TSLA up 3% in extended on the news.
 
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I see from the EV thread GM joins F in hopping on the TSLA charging network.

Both GM and TSLA up 3% in extended on the news.
Good move by TSLA.

For those paying attention to next week's May 2023 CPI report. Cleveland Fed is estimating a large drop to 4.1-4.2% YoY and then down to 3.2-3.3% YoY for June's print.

Plan accordingly! :)
 
Bring it!

Behold Wall Street's new bull market, maybe

NEW YORK (Reuters) -S&P 500 advanced on Thursday, putting the benchmark index up 20% from its Oct. 12 closing low and heralding the start of a new bull market, at least by the definition of some market participants.

Part of the uncertainty is that there is no set definition of a bull or bear market, or any sort of regulatory body that declares one, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does with recessions.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% in Thursday's session, lifted by technology stocks, while volatility dropped to record lows ahead of an eventful economic and policy calendar next week.

The Nasdaq added 1%, and it is now up nearly 30% from its closing low last December.

The most commonly accepted definition is a 20% rise off a low for a bull market and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but even that is open to interpretation.
 
With F and GM now as customers, that allows them to expand their network much more quickly then they would otherwise.
Musk is a smart guy. :)
Will this also lead to GM and F EV owners to buy TSLA at home charging/power equipment?
 
We need every EV charging station available. No one can corner a market when it’s way under supplied. The adapter allows both to work. It’s just the software.
There was an analyst on CNBC that argued this was a bonehead move for Tesla because the Tesla network helped sell cars and now Ford/GM have same access, not to mention that something like 85% of charging is done at home.
 
There was an analyst on CNBC that argued this was a bonehead move for Tesla because the Tesla network helped sell cars and now Ford/GM have same access, not to mention that something like 85% of charging is done at home.
I thought they get a boat load of money from the government because they opened up their network.
 
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I posted it in the stock thread. One analyst said up to $25 billion a year. Seems like it is well worth it.
I don’t know what to make of these Tesla charging station announcements. Look at any industry where infrastructure is involved = why aren’t AT&T, VZ, TMO the most valuable companies in the world when they are the backbone of the single most important piece of tech in our lives…it’s because the infrastructure costs an insane amount to build and maintain + the gov’t treats them like a utility and regulates the hell out of them. The gov’t may be generous with tax credits/subsidies now but at some point they will do the same thing to Tesla that they have done to that Telcos, assuming Tesla is making money hand over fist.
 
Is the market getting too greedy while the interest rate is still high?
No. Historically, markets do fine when interest rates are "high". It's more about the movement of rates. Pause means Boom. Pivot/cuts means KaBoom.
 
We need every EV charging station available. No one can corner a market when it’s way under supplied. The adapter allows both to work. It’s just the software.
No, it's not "just the software". 3rd party chargers suck for a variety of reasons. Compared to Tesla, they're more expensive to produce, slower to produce, less reliable, placed in less desirable locations, more complicated to use, and offer less high speed charging. Not to mention, 3rd party chargers are using CCS, which will shortly become the Betamax of charging infrastructure.

Tesla is installing a reliable, high speed charging station ~ every 13 hours, and continuing to ramp. They're shipped prefabricated on trucks and are up and running in a few days. No other charging network is remotely close.
 
No, it's not "just the software". 3rd party chargers suck for a variety of reasons. Compared to Tesla, they're more expensive to produce, slower to produce, less reliable, placed in less desirable locations, more complicated to use, and offer less high speed charging. Not to mention, 3rd party chargers are using CCS, which will shortly become the Betamax of charging infrastructure.

Tesla is installing a reliable, high speed charging station ~ every 13 hours, and continuing to ramp. They're shipped prefabricated on trucks and are up and running in a few days. No other charging network is remotely close.
An adapter can solve the CCS. Tesla is more reliable but still not enough to cover the market. We need as many chargers as possible for EV adoption
 
Long term bear Goldman Sach raises S&P 500 price target to 4500 (YE). They understand the inflation data.

Also:

Investors rethink recession plays, boosting U.S. stock market laggards

"We're seeing indications that the economy is going to be more resilient to headwinds," said Tim Murray, a capital market strategist in T Rowe Price's ( TROW ) multi-asset division. "There's reason to believe that the pessimism we saw at the start of the year is giving way to a stronger-than-expected market."
 
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I don’t know what to make of these Tesla charging station announcements. Look at any industry where infrastructure is involved = why aren’t AT&T, VZ, TMO the most valuable companies in the world when they are the backbone of the single most important piece of tech in our lives…it’s because the infrastructure costs an insane amount to build and maintain + the gov’t treats them like a utility and regulates the hell out of them. The gov’t may be generous with tax credits/subsidies now but at some point they will do the same thing to Tesla that they have done to that Telcos, assuming Tesla is making money hand over fist.
Thoss companies don’t grow. Mobile a little but the other two are completely stagnant.

This is going to lead help spur further growth for TSLA and their growth has been tremendous already.
 
Thoss companies don’t grow. Mobile a little but the other two are completely stagnant.

This is going to lead help spur further growth for TSLA and their growth has been tremendous already.
+1
Those companies are textbook value traps. Mature stable businesses without significant growth potential.
 
Thoss companies don’t grow. Mobile a little but the other two are completely stagnant.

This is going to lead help spur further growth for TSLA and their growth has been tremendous already.
I’m just throwing the likely long-term charging station scenario out there…admittedly “long term” could be 20+ years. But remember that AT&T used to rule the world and was the Google of its time. That is, until the gov’t destroyed the monopoly. I’d be willing to bet Tesla suffers this same fate many, many moons from now. If Tesla starts raking in billions/trillions the gov’t will step in and probably make them spin-off the car manufacturing business plus grant smaller regional players access to the network. But I’m the meantime plenty of money to be made.
 
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