And one of the main reasons why inflation has declined. When it was $120 it was impacting many products and services that shot up in cost.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
And one of the main reasons why inflation has declined. When it was $120 it was impacting many products and services that shot up in cost.
CPI YoY is going to plummet over the next 2 prints (tomorrow/May 2023 and next month/June 2023). We will be in the 2's by the end of the summer.
For the SOFI investors of this thread:
SoFi surges ahead of student loan payment restart
SoFi hit its highest level since April 2022 after Truist reiterated its buy rating and raised its price target.
Executives presenting at a Morgan Stanley conference also said they’re seeing deposit growth and expect to benefit from the current rate environment. Of course, the company has seen optimism in recent weeks related to the resumption of student loan payments. The stock is up 82% in a month and almost 100% in 2023.
SoFi surges ahead of student loan payment restart
SoFi hit its highest level since April 2022 after Truist reiterated its buy rating and raised its price target.
Executives presenting at a Morgan Stanley conference also said they’re seeing deposit growth and expect to benefit from the current rate environment. Of course, the company has seen optimism in recent weeks related to the resumption of student loan payments. The stock is up 82% in a month and almost 100% in 2023.
Continuous talk the last weeks of China prepping for war
US prepping for any citizen evac from Taiwan (what could go wrong?)
Check those prescriptions.
www.wsj.com
www.politico.com
finance.yahoo.com
US prepping for any citizen evac from Taiwan (what could go wrong?)
Check those prescriptions.
Xi Prepares China for ‘Extreme’ Scenarios, Including Conflict with the West
As Beijing and Washington move gingerly toward restoring high-level exchanges, Xi Jinping is stepping up his effort to gird China for conflict.
www.wsj.com
The Pentagon Is Freaking Out About a Potential War With China
(Because America might lose.)
www.politico.com
Americans should prepare for cyber sabotage from Chinese hackers, US official warns
Chinese hackers are all but certain to disrupt American critical infrastructure, such as pipelines and railways, in the event of a conflict with the United States, a senior U.S. cybersecurity official said Monday. In comments made during an appearance at the Aspen Institute in Washington...
Last edited:
Top tech analyst Dan Ives says the A.I. ‘gold rush’ is just like the dotcom boom but it’s a ‘1995 moment … not 1999’
Contrary to tech skeptics, Ives doesn’t think the economy is heading for a bubble or a collapse.
While some on Wall Street question whether stocks can continue their run of form in the second half of the year, pointing to stretched valuations in the Big Tech names and A.I. plays that have led the rebound so far, Wedbush’s top tech analyst Dan Ives argues it’s just the beginning of the “A.I. gold rush.”
“Many of the tech skeptics will point to today as a ‘1999 moment,’ à la on the verge of the dotcom bubble/collapse, given the significant move in tech valuations. We strongly disagree,” the veteran analyst wrote in a Monday research note. “While valuations in tech will be front and center, we continue to believe A.I. is driving the tech sector to a ‘1995 moment’ with a long runway of growth ahead that we have not seen since the 1990s.”
This is what I've said here. I'm not saying eventually it won't go bust or that there won't be pullbacks, even deep ones, but it still feels like early innings to me.
Top tech analyst Dan Ives says the A.I. ‘gold rush’ is just like the dotcom boom but it’s a ‘1995 moment … not 1999’
Contrary to tech skeptics, Ives doesn’t think the economy is heading for a bubble or a collapse.
While some on Wall Street question whether stocks can continue their run of form in the second half of the year, pointing to stretched valuations in the Big Tech names and A.I. plays that have led the rebound so far, Wedbush’s top tech analyst Dan Ives argues it’s just the beginning of the “A.I. gold rush.”
“Many of the tech skeptics will point to today as a ‘1999 moment,’ à la on the verge of the dotcom bubble/collapse, given the significant move in tech valuations. We strongly disagree,” the veteran analyst wrote in a Monday research note. “While valuations in tech will be front and center, we continue to believe A.I. is driving the tech sector to a ‘1995 moment’ with a long runway of growth ahead that we have not seen since the 1990s.”
Cloud was a big thing for quite awhile before it finally has cooled off but AI hasn't come near that point yet IMO.
The FANG won’t retreat, they seem like they just go up and up also include TSLA. The whole market appears to be turning. I listen to Dan Ives.
With this morning’s data, rate freeze is a 95% lock.
Soft landing for the economy is back on the table. The YOLO American consumer and AI stocks are filling in the purported economic dip!
Inflation coming in, job market is resilient, market nears all time high. Energy prices stable. With his main competitor getting arrested for refusing to hand over national security documents, it’s a good day for Biden and his chances of re-election. We’re probably going need a presidential diaper Secretary soon, though.
www.cmegroup.com
Soft landing for the economy is back on the table. The YOLO American consumer and AI stocks are filling in the purported economic dip!
Inflation coming in, job market is resilient, market nears all time high. Energy prices stable. With his main competitor getting arrested for refusing to hand over national security documents, it’s a good day for Biden and his chances of re-election. We’re probably going need a presidential diaper Secretary soon, though.
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.
Market has been very resilient and quite frankly it's been surprising to me. It broke through resistance and it's been holding so far. The longer it holds, the more firm that support will become.
Some AMD news
www.reuters.com
AMD likely to offer details on AI chip in challenge to Nvidia
Advanced Micro Devices on Tuesday is expected to reveal new details about an AI "superchip" that analysts believe will be a strong challenger to Nvidia Corp , whose chips dominate the fast-growing artificial intelligence market.
www.reuters.com
Inflation falls off the cliff this morning. Lowest YoY since March 2021 and falling fast. Next month's drop will likely be even larger. CPI's June 2023 print may start with a 2 (skip over the 3's). June 2022 was the ultra peak, so the comparator month is sky high.
To summarize this post......Life is Good. :)With this morning’s data, rate freeze is a 95% lock.
Soft landing for the economy is back on the table. The YOLO American consumer and AI stocks are filling in the purported economic dip!
Inflation coming in, job market is resilient, market nears all time high. Energy prices stable. With his main competitor getting arrested for refusing to hand over national security documents, it’s a good day for Biden and his chances of re-election. We’re probably going need a presidential diaper Secretary soon, though.
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.
And for those keeping track of the CPI math, this plummet still doesn't include the garbage CPI shelter metric catching up with reality yet. CPI headline and CORE YoY are both BELOW 2% if you use real-time housing data.
We all will be talking about the danger of deflation by the end of the year. Plan accordingly! :)
Last edited:
lol....... probably a "skip" at best...... nowhere near 2% still....... we shall see.....
$5 Trillion still sits in Money Markets...
and yet, the run-up is scarry thin...
Big boys lead the way, other companies then catch up and push indexes even higher.lol....... probably a "skip" at best...... nowhere near 2% still....... we shall see.....
$5 Trillion still sits in Money Markets...
and yet, the run-up is scarry thin...
Inflation is over and has been for a long time. The market knows this and has been reacting to it all year.
Here's a good video from top PC tech/gaming site showing how silly Nvidia actually is.
At one point Nvidia co-founder Jensen Huang is bragging how a new 200k server is - at 60lbs - pounds the heaviest computer for sale. That sort of hype is meaningless but its typical of Nvidia buttsmoke
9: 00 in
Exclusive-Amazon's cloud unit is considering AMD's new AI chips
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -Amazon Web Services, the world's largest cloud computing provider, is considering using new artificial intelligence chips from Advanced Micro Devices Inc, though it has not made a final decision, an AWS executive told Reuters. The remarks came during an AMD event where...
PPI continues to plummet (leading indicator for CPI). We will all be talking about the dangers of deflation soon:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in May and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to skip raising interest rates on Wednesday.
The producer price index for final demand dropped 0.3% last month on lower energy costs after rising by an unrevised 0.2% in April, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
In the 12 months through May, the PPI climbed 1.1%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since December 2020 and followed a 2.3% increase in April. The annual PPI rate is moderating as last year's surge drops out of the calculation.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI dipping 0.1% from the prior month and rising 1.5% on year.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in May and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to skip raising interest rates on Wednesday.
The producer price index for final demand dropped 0.3% last month on lower energy costs after rising by an unrevised 0.2% in April, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
In the 12 months through May, the PPI climbed 1.1%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since December 2020 and followed a 2.3% increase in April. The annual PPI rate is moderating as last year's surge drops out of the calculation.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI dipping 0.1% from the prior month and rising 1.5% on year.
SOFI breaks above my $10 strike.
Great run, is it over? Kind of hoping for a cool off, but I might need to roll up if it doesn't.
With student loans coming back online, SOFI is going to run for a while.
Bought some MP at $22.98.
One year chart looks terrible.
The YTD chart maybe looks like it's bottomed.
18xP/X. 2023 EPS expected to be lower, but then rebound strongly beyond that.
Also bought a half position of NEP yesterday at $62.25. Down 30 something percent from it's 52 week highs, looks like it has a short term reverse head and shoulders, 6% div. 12% rev growth expected with very uneven fwd looking EPS.
I see MP as a longer term hold given it's expected growth. NEP is more dependent on what the stock does, modest gains I'll hang in, if it rips I'll take it as a trade.
One year chart looks terrible.
The YTD chart maybe looks like it's bottomed.
18xP/X. 2023 EPS expected to be lower, but then rebound strongly beyond that.
Also bought a half position of NEP yesterday at $62.25. Down 30 something percent from it's 52 week highs, looks like it has a short term reverse head and shoulders, 6% div. 12% rev growth expected with very uneven fwd looking EPS.
I see MP as a longer term hold given it's expected growth. NEP is more dependent on what the stock does, modest gains I'll hang in, if it rips I'll take it as a trade.
25% rev growth, and expected to turn profitable in a couple years. Starting to expensive on most metrics.
Get those deadbeats paying back student loans!!! No more Lululemon joggers and $20 burrito bowls!
I have MP in my custom ETF, bullish for the long term. Demand for their metals is growing.
Health insurance stocks slide after UnitedHealth warns more surgeries will drive up medical costs
Shares of UnitedHealth, Humana, Elevance Health and CVS Health all declined, while medical device manufacturers and hospital operators edged higher.
Makes no sense. Higher medical costs and more surgeries equal higher sales and revenue for HC companies.Health insurance stocks slide after UnitedHealth warns more surgeries will drive up medical costs
Shares of UnitedHealth, Humana, Elevance Health and CVS Health all declined, while medical device manufacturers and hospital operators edged higher.www.cnbc.com
I'm guessing it as an outlay for more procedures increases expenses in the short term while premiums won't cover that but longer term it would probably level off and premiums would make it up for it.
I'm wondering if a buying opportunity might not materialize. It bounced off a possible support today but then I'd say high 300s low 400s after that. It has been in a downtrend though.
Currently 20xP/E, which is about it's 10 year average.
Not sure if the current long term expectations factor in the recent news about higher expense, but EPS growth looks great into 2026.
Bounced 2.3% this morning, but I agree the chart doesn't look great in the short term. Could probably buy here as a long term investment and do quite well, but might get a better price if one were to wait.
Was thinking about UPS, but then I read a Morgan Stanley report which put a target price of $100, on the stock, and that was their base case, bear case at $60.
The consensus for the company is, after seeing EPS contract in 2023, from about $13 to $10ish, to then grow again. The Morgan Stanley analyst didn't agree they would return to growth.
Looking at a 10 year chart, this stock was up a meager 20% from 2014 to just before the the covid dip. Then ripped higher post covid with everyone turning to online buying.
I do think online buying is not going away, but that 2 year covid period was a unique period of time, and I can see that as a high point in terms of EPS. So while getting to precovid levels of business seems unreasonable, lower then the current levels, or maybe just flat for awhile, doesn't.
At 17x 2023 earnings it is at the low end of it's 10 year P/E range. More commonly it's at around 20x.
The consensus for the company is, after seeing EPS contract in 2023, from about $13 to $10ish, to then grow again. The Morgan Stanley analyst didn't agree they would return to growth.
Looking at a 10 year chart, this stock was up a meager 20% from 2014 to just before the the covid dip. Then ripped higher post covid with everyone turning to online buying.
I do think online buying is not going away, but that 2 year covid period was a unique period of time, and I can see that as a high point in terms of EPS. So while getting to precovid levels of business seems unreasonable, lower then the current levels, or maybe just flat for awhile, doesn't.
At 17x 2023 earnings it is at the low end of it's 10 year P/E range. More commonly it's at around 20x.
Was thinking of buying CRWD. Price to rev's is below some other high flyers, like SNOW, or the AI stocks. Meanwhile it's growth is as good as any of them. Also has been on the run that some of these other tech stocks have been on(granted it is 60% up off the bottom).
Then Josh Brown, a fairly long time holder, just made it his final trade. Mentions the 50 day just crossed the 200 day.
Sold my OXY(which has been a dud, and I'm still pretty heavy in energy) to finance.
Stock spiked a little after Brown mentioned it, so I'm waiting to see if it cools down.
Then Josh Brown, a fairly long time holder, just made it his final trade. Mentions the 50 day just crossed the 200 day.
Sold my OXY(which has been a dud, and I'm still pretty heavy in energy) to finance.
Stock spiked a little after Brown mentioned it, so I'm waiting to see if it cools down.
I had about 200 shares UNH trading back and forth when it dropped yesterday and my buy limit hit and brought about 175 shares more yesterday at 453. Already up 11 pts today and sold a few but hope it get back to at least 490. I was a little worried yesterday but I’m calm today. I still think it break 500 in a month.
Last edited:
Have all the AI stocks CRWD, SNOW and AI as well as all the big ones. AI is great the last few days since it such a low price.
I can’t believe how MSFT and META just keep going up.
I would be happy to see the DJI rip for a while as the Daq takes a breather. That would be good for our new bull market. :)
The Compound crew covered this recently.....returns after an index rallies 20% from a bear low. Can't remember the specific, but it was extremely positive. I will look (pretty sure it was one of JB's videos).
Start at the 4 min mark (I know there was another):
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
Basketball VIDEO: Steve Pikiell + Ace Bailey talk Purdue Postgame- Latest: Captain Hogleg
