I'm not sure inlfation is truly gone, and I definitely don't think it's been gone for awhile.
I think Siegel's call for ending hikes late last year were clearly way too early.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I think Siegel's call for ending hikes late last year were clearly way too early.
They missed on raging inflation in 2021 due to the year-long CPI lag and they are making the same mistake now. Use real time shelter data and CPI core is well below 2% YoY. CPI headline is closer to 1%.
Why are they still using garbage data? The same data that screwed them in 2021 and 2022?
I don't think the data they use is garbage, but I do think they should factor in shorter term data as well.
That said, the economy continues to outperform expectations, there isn't much there to suggest they have gone too far. And very possible if they were to back off, inflation could flare back up, and that is what they are trying to avoid, as much as they are trying to tamp out current inflation.
Inflation won't flare back up since it was all due to COVID and associated disruptions. History will tell this story. The Fed should have gone back to neutral, but that's it. Lots of smart folks think the Fed is making the problem worse due to destroying the housing market. They killed the supply of houses for sale (due to mortgage rates), not the demand. LOL! Big mess up.
But some of those folks have been singing this tune since December, and they were pretty clearly wrong on those early calls.
Jamie Dimon on the other hand thinks the Fed may need to go higher as he see's inflation as remaining stubborn.
If those rates crush the economy it doesn't.
Even now, if less people are taking out loans, it negates the benefits of the higher rates. Higher margins, but less total rev's and profits.
Dimon knows that higher rates won't crush the economy due to the worker imbalance in the US. The Fed can raise rates until the cows come home and the job market won't budge. Early retirements, lack of immigration, COVID deaths, etc. The Fed trying to impact the job market is like an old person yelling at the sky. And sadly, it seems like they don't understand this.
If money was cheaper and companies were looking to grow, the imbalance would be worse and wage inflation would rip higher.
Wage inflation still needs to catch up with price inflation. Some additional wage growth would be good for the economy.
By the way, is today the beginning of a Dow rip and Nasdaq breather?
Mentioned a bit back high 40s low 50s could be a spot to get in for a move. It looks like it bounced off the low 50s area. I didn't get in though as I was hoping for a 4 handle. Modelo has passed it as #1 beer in US for now. I do think it will come back sooner or later. It's bouncing up against the 200DMA though now and I'm not sure if it'll have the momentum to breakthrough yet without more positive news.
TELL, a stock I've been murdered on, though one I killed it with in 2020-21, rallied hard off it's bottom in late Jan, and I sold calls off that rally.
A couple months ago I had 33% of my shares called away at $1.50(probably a 10+%premium on the option but I forget). Then with it trading below $1.50, I sold in the money puts for 30 cents. Was put into the stock when it dipped below $1.20, It has since rebounded and has hovered around $1.35
Just sold the $1.50 puts again for .13 cents. So just under 10% of it's current stock price.
Back in Jan I also sold July 21st $2.50 for 25 cents, and the Jan $3 for 22 cents.
My combined positions in TELL have not done well on this go around, but the options have helped.
Some of my other options trading have kept me from enjoying some serious upside moves, like in AI, PLTR, and STNE. Good trades if looked at in a vacuum, but definitely left big money(AI specifically) on the table when you look at a bigger picture. Still waiting to see if they want to come back in, in which case the even bigger picture could tilt back in my favor.
A couple months ago I had 33% of my shares called away at $1.50(probably a 10+%premium on the option but I forget). Then with it trading below $1.50, I sold in the money puts for 30 cents. Was put into the stock when it dipped below $1.20, It has since rebounded and has hovered around $1.35
Just sold the $1.50 puts again for .13 cents. So just under 10% of it's current stock price.
Back in Jan I also sold July 21st $2.50 for 25 cents, and the Jan $3 for 22 cents.
My combined positions in TELL have not done well on this go around, but the options have helped.
Some of my other options trading have kept me from enjoying some serious upside moves, like in AI, PLTR, and STNE. Good trades if looked at in a vacuum, but definitely left big money(AI specifically) on the table when you look at a bigger picture. Still waiting to see if they want to come back in, in which case the even bigger picture could tilt back in my favor.
How does someone keep his job when using data that lags up to 1-year for forward looking policy decisions? Gov'ment at its finest.
Not sure about BUD, the damage may be lasting (sales and reputation). Have other brands besides Bud Light been hit?
3M lawsuit coming to an end?
3M reaches tentative $10.3 billion deal over US 'forever chemicals' claims
3M reaches tentative $10.3 billion deal over US 'forever chemicals' claims
This news has been hinted as coming a few weeks ago. They still have other lawsuits related to forever chemicals and then there’s the ear plug lawsuit too. It’s not over.
Edit: I see a 5.5% pop after hours though which I’m assuming is based on this news. They got a pop prior as well when this news was hinted. I’d have thought it was priced in mostly.
Wonder if this might not be beneficial to beleaguered GE Vernova in the future.
www.cnbc.com
Siemens Energy shares plunge more than 37% as wind turbine worries deepen
Siemens Energy scrapped its 2023 profit outlook after a review of its wind turbine unit exposed problems deeper than expected.
Say no to Big Wind! :)Wonder if this might not be beneficial to beleaguered GE Vernova in the future.
Siemens Energy shares plunge more than 37% as wind turbine worries deepen
Siemens Energy scrapped its 2023 profit outlook after a review of its wind turbine unit exposed problems deeper than expected.
Regardless, so far so good with the GE spinoffs.
You must be under the impression that bears simply short the market and go for a ride. You are, aren't you?
So i bought some GBTC today after it ripping all week, and of course it immediately dropped 3%.
But I tricked the market gods by only starting with a very small position. Hope it falls back more and ill buy more.
My crytpo exposure now consists of a small position in GBTC and an even smaller position of ATOM. The latter pays out 16% if you stake your coins which I am. Probably will add to each.
But I tricked the market gods by only starting with a very small position. Hope it falls back more and ill buy more.
My crytpo exposure now consists of a small position in GBTC and an even smaller position of ATOM. The latter pays out 16% if you stake your coins which I am. Probably will add to each.
LLY been on a roll, another possible blockbuster showing promise.
www.cnbc.com
Eli Lilly experimental obesity drug could beat rivals in total weight loss for patients
Obese or overweight patients who took Eli Lilly's retatrutide lost 58 pounds on average, the pharmaceutical company said in a mid-stage clinical trial.
Lots of action in the obesity market. Getting folks down to a normal weight would lower the HC burden/costs by a huge amount. Hope this drug progresses quickly.LLY been on a roll, another possible blockbuster showing promise.
Eli Lilly experimental obesity drug could beat rivals in total weight loss for patients
Obese or overweight patients who took Eli Lilly's retatrutide lost 58 pounds on average, the pharmaceutical company said in a mid-stage clinical trial.
Have seen that at a COST self checkout and one person got quite hostile. Not her membership was the first thing that came to my mind.
www.cnbc.com
Also this news which could be beneficial to retail.
www.cnbc.com
Costco cracks down on membership card sharing
The membership-based warehouse club Costco has noticed an uptick in abuse since expanding self-checkout.
Also this news which could be beneficial to retail.
The Inform Act takes effect today — here's how it aims to target organized retail theft
The Inform Act, a bipartisan bill targeting organized retail theft that takes effect Tuesday, requires online marketplaces to disclose the identity of sellers.
You would think so but you actually think doctors, hospitals, other medical professionals, pharmaceutical and medical devices companies will accept less compensation. They will bill it another way to keep the compensation the same.
Yes they will. Less obesity means less HC activity, procedures, and usage. Can’t fake that.
Lots of folks are calculating and posting true/accurate CPI data. Using real-time shelter data. This is reality and where gov'ment CPI is heading. Plan accordingly:
Jeremy Schwartz of Wisdom Tree points out some great adjusted “real-time CPI” and according to his model, the following is the trend:
– CPI shelter: +1% vs +8% reported
– Core CPI: 2.2% vs 5.3% reported
– huge differences
Jeremy Schwartz of Wisdom Tree points out some great adjusted “real-time CPI” and according to his model, the following is the trend:
– CPI shelter: +1% vs +8% reported
– Core CPI: 2.2% vs 5.3% reported
– huge differences
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