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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Inflation continues to plummet (even via gov'ment math). Look for a larger decrease next month for CPI, PPI, and PCE as we lap the June 2022 peak:

A Commerce Department report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, advanced 3.8%, compared with a 4.3% rise in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month.
The Supreme Court’s decision on Biden’s idiotic loan forgiveness plan will def help tame inflation. The student debt numbers are huge and those people have gotten a free ride for 3 years while employment remained strong and incomes have gone up. I’m a firm believer that much of the excess savings folks talk about was fueled, in part, by not making that monthly loan payment. All of the money that should have been directed to loan payments was instead used to buy goods and services. Those are massive numbers.
 
DIS is in massive debt due to the Fox deal and even though theme park business is booming, most of their movies are bombing. Add in current political perception issues, DIS stock may be stuck in the mud for a while. I believe it is clearly undervalued, but that may not matter short term.
I think the biggest problem for them is they don't have enough variety of content. I don't find myself watching Disney+ as much as other streaming services. It's not even close. Netflix, Max and Prime get my attention more (don't have Paramount or Peacock).

They have 2 good franchises in Marvel and Star Wars but they haven't built on it. I've been mostly "Marveled out," probably before others. I've only seen the first Avengers and the last Holland Spiderman was the last Marvel movie I've watched. Star Wars can still reel me in but it can't be just throw together anything. I liked the Mandalorian but only watched the first episode this past season, wasn't excited by it and haven't continued yet. What else they got? Answer imo, not much.

Netflix has all kinds of shows, from action/adventure, documentaries, true crime, suspense/thriller, horror, stand up, reality, international (which I think is a plus while the hollywood strikes go on). They may be a little less throw whatever up on the wall and see what sticks these days but so far enough does stick. Sharing crackdown will help them in the short term at least too.

Disney needs to build up their content (weird to say that considering it's Disney) and maybe they can with Hulu for more adult entertainment but right now it's too niche or pigeonholed imo.
 
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The Supreme Court’s decision on Biden’s idiotic loan forgiveness plan will def help tame inflation. The student debt numbers are huge and those people have gotten a free ride for 3 years while employment remained strong and incomes have gone up. I’m a firm believer that much of the excess savings folks talk about was fueled, in part, by not making that monthly loan payment. All of the money that should have been directed to loan payments was instead used to buy goods and services. Those are massive numbers.
Very good point! Free ride is over.
 
I think the biggest problem for them is they don't have enough variety of content. I don't find myself watching Disney+ as much as other streaming services. It's not even close. Netflix, Max and Prime get my attention more (don't have Paramount or Peacock).

They have 2 good franchises in Marvel and Star Wars but they haven't built on it. I've been mostly "Marveled out," probably before others. I've only seen the first Avengers and the last Holland Spiderman was the last Marvel movie I've watched. Star Wars can still reel me in but it can't be just throw together anything. I liked the Mandalorian but only watched the first episode this past season, wasn't excited by it and haven't continued yet. What else they got? Answer imo, not much.

Netflix has all kinds of shows, from action/adventure, documentaries, true crime, suspense/thriller, horror, stand up, reality, international (which I think is a plus while the hollywood strikes go on). They may be a little less throw whatever up on the wall and see what sticks these days but so far enough does stick. Sharing crackdown will help them in the short term at least too.

Disney needs to build up their content (weird to say that considering it's Disney) and maybe they can with Hulu for more adult entertainment but right now it's too niche or pigeonholed imo.
I actually think the most viewed show on Disney Plus is Bluey, which is not even a Disney show! Just licensed from an Australian company. I'm a long time Star Wars fan and use the channel to watch old content. The new Disney SW content pretty much sucks, except for Andor (which was outsourced to a legit Hollywood team).

Never been a Marvel fan beyond the main Avenger movies. So you're right, not a lot of great content besides past Disney stuff.
 
Very good point! Free ride is over.
I have a feeling there will be another forgiveness program designed with the limits of the presidents authority.

Something that might eliminate interest on a certain amount of loans.


Pay the amount borrowed but zero interest on a certain amount with interest only applying to an amount above that.
 
I have a feeling there will be another forgiveness program designed with the limits of the presidents authority.

Something that might eliminate interest on a certain amount of loans.


Pay the amount borrowed but zero interest on a certain amount with interest only applying to an amount above that.
Assistance with rates is probably fine, but it's time to start making payments.
 
I have a feeling there will be another forgiveness program designed with the limits of the presidents authority.

Something that might eliminate interest on a certain amount of loans.


Pay the amount borrowed but zero interest on a certain amount with interest only applying to an amount above that.
I wouldn’t be surprised, but a president attempting to circumvent a Supreme Court ruling seems to undermine the very foundation of our government. Am I missing something here = Biden is basically saying F-U to the SC in trying to find another way.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised, but a president attempting to circumvent a Supreme Court ruling seems to undermine the very foundation of our government. Am I missing something here = Biden is basically saying F-U to the SC in trying to find another way.
Not sure I agree. The court found this proposal to not be allowed they never said all proposals would be.

I think the finding that Missouri had standing was a reach.

To be clear I paid my loans, fully paid my daughters college and have already saved over $50,000 for my 4-year-old granddaughter so I have no benefit coming from what happens.
 
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The Supreme Court’s decision on Biden’s idiotic loan forgiveness plan will def help tame inflation. The student debt numbers are huge and those people have gotten a free ride for 3 years while employment remained strong and incomes have gone up. I’m a firm believer that much of the excess savings folks talk about was fueled, in part, by not making that monthly loan payment. All of the money that should have been directed to loan payments was instead used to buy goods and services. Those are massive numbers.
The effect of repayment will be far more immaterial than people think. These people were making monthly payments before the pandemic and the economy was humming along nicely back then. This whole “the SC screwed these people forever narrative” is absurd, I guess 2020 was Year Zero for personal finance.
 
Not sure I agree. The court found this proposal to not be allowed they never said all proposals would be.

I think the finding that Missouri had standing was a reach.

To be clear I paid my loans, fully paid my daughters college and have already saved over $50,000 for my 4-year-old granddaughter so I have no benefit coming from what happens.
How about going through Congress and following the constitutional process? Asking too much? LOL.
 
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The effect of repayment will be far more immaterial than people think. These people were making monthly payments before the pandemic and the economy was humming along nicely back then. This whole “the SC screwed these people forever narrative” is absurd, I guess 2020 was Year Zero for personal finance.
Student loan debt is at $1.8 Trillion…how could it possibly be immaterial.
 
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Shout out to my mortgage REIT income ETF for being up almost 13% in a month. Not all heroes use AI.😂
 
Student loan debt is at $1.8 Trillion…how could it possibly be immaterial.
Impact ranges from lots of loan defaults to payments made and thus lessening discretionary spending elsewhere. Will be interesting to see how this plays out economically and politically. All that said, recasting any "relief" to eliminate or greatly reduce student-loan interest rates seems a sound compromise, one that lessens the potential downside.
 
How about going through Congress and following the constitutional process? Asking too much? LOL.
Presidents and this process are not limited to going through Congress. They do have certain presidential powers that they all use.
 
I think the biggest problem for them is they don't have enough variety of content. I don't find myself watching Disney+ as much as other streaming services. It's not even close. Netflix, Max and Prime get my attention more (don't have Paramount or Peacock).

They have 2 good franchises in Marvel and Star Wars but they haven't built on it. I've been mostly "Marveled out," probably before others. I've only seen the first Avengers and the last Holland Spiderman was the last Marvel movie I've watched. Star Wars can still reel me in but it can't be just throw together anything. I liked the Mandalorian but only watched the first episode this past season, wasn't excited by it and haven't continued yet. What else they got? Answer imo, not much.

Netflix has all kinds of shows, from action/adventure, documentaries, true crime, suspense/thriller, horror, stand up, reality, international (which I think is a plus while the hollywood strikes go on). They may be a little less throw whatever up on the wall and see what sticks these days but so far enough does stick. Sharing crackdown will help them in the short term at least too.

Disney needs to build up their content (weird to say that considering it's Disney) and maybe they can with Hulu for more adult entertainment but right now it's too niche or pigeonholed imo.
Netflix caught me sharing my account with my nephew. Had to pay an extra $8 mth to add another household.
 
Student loan debt is at $1.8 Trillion…how could it possibly be immaterial.
I read that most of the loans won’t ever be paid. The solution starts with limiting the amount an individual can take out for student loans. NO MBA or PhD unless they have reasonable outstanding balance from their under graduate studies. Colleges need to also reduce tuition cost and take responsibility for the student ability to pay off the loans. Colleges should be required to take on 60% of the default student loans, which would result in 70% drop in defaults. Some of these students act like $20,000 is a lot but they are willing to pay $50,000 for a car. No student loan forgiveness until they solve the college tuition/ loan problem entirely.

Yes, setting a low student loan interest rate is smart but limiting the total loan amount students can obtain is more important.
 
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Netflix caught me sharing my account with my nephew. Had to pay an extra $8 mth to add another household.
I'm sure we will need to do this with my dad soon. We have him logged on to all of our streaming services, including Netflix. Fair trade to add a household at a reduced rate.
 
I'm sure we will need to do this with my dad soon. We have him logged on to all of our streaming services, including Netflix. Fair trade to add a household at a reduced rate.
Yes, very reasonable but at some point they will have both household pay full price. The quality of shows on Netflix has gone down and I really reduced my TV watching. I got to get rid of my $200 cable bill.
 
I read that most of the loans won’t ever be paid. The problem starts with limiting the amount an individual can take out for student loans. NO MBA or PhD unless they have reasonable outstanding balance from their under graduate studies. Some of these students act like $20,000 is a lot but they are willing to pay $50,000 for a car. No student loan forgiveness until they solve the college tuition/ loan problem entirely.

Yes, setting a low student loan interest rate is smart but limiting the total loan amount students can obtain is more important.
One idea that I like.....limiting the loan amount based on major/income prospects. That makes sense.
 
Yes, very reasonable but at some point they will have both household pay full price. The quality of shows on Netflix has gone down and I really reduced my TV watching. I got to get rid of my $200 cable bill.
Honestly, the TV channel or service I watch the most is actually YouTube. LOL! My entire family rarely watches any normal TV besides a live sporting event. Just don't have the balls to fully pull the plug yet.

FYI - I'm going to start investing in new custom ETF/bucket of ~30 stocks (via advice from Fundstrat). Subset of S&P 500 stocks (goal is to beat the index). DCAing will start tomorrow. Should be a nice change for my fun account! Half of my TQQQ money will go here and the other half will eventually go into QLD. That's the new plan!
 
YTD 15.5%. No real new investments. Cash position is now over 15%.
Working on this now. Definitely well over 20% with my fun account leading the way at about 85% (and this account has our highest relative cash position). LOL!
 
Some of these students act like $20,000 is a lot but they are willing to pay $50,000 for a car.
Therein lies the real problem. Just like that politician that got lambasted for complaining about her law school debt after the SC decision was announced and then we learned she bought a $1M+ home. WTF is wrong with people?!?!
 
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Impact ranges from lots of loan defaults to payments made and thus lessening discretionary spending elsewhere. Will be interesting to see how this plays out economically and politically. All that said, recasting any "relief" to eliminate or greatly reduce student-loan interest rates seems a sound compromise, one that lessens the potential downside.
..i think the loans should be on the university to determine the rate and the risk of how much to lend..
 
What a year for tech so far. I was reading about a month ago when Apple hit $175 people saying it's not a buy anymore yet it keeps going. Saw some forecasts for $240. Anyone still buying it along with the other big tech names?

e1dwsib54q9b1.jpg
 
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What a year for tech so far. I was reading about a month ago when Apple hit $175 people saying it's not a buy anymore yet it keeps going. Saw some forecasts for $240. Anyone still buying it along with the other big tech names?

e1dwsib54q9b1.jpg
For me, no. I’m not one to hop on momentum. If the train has left the station without me, so be it. I’m not one for FOMO.

I can be a knife catcher though for whatever large/megacap names I consider high quality. It can be painful at times but often it comes through.

META was down 30% when I started and it was still way way early. I bought slowly all the way down using technicals at places where support might come in. No way did I think it or any of the other big techs would rebound as quick and hard as they did but I thought eventually they would. It paid off. Dividend payers are even better, then at least get something while you wait.

IMO, the time to slowly accumulate the big tech names was when they were crashing a little while ago. Now they’ve all shot to the moon fairly quickly. I’d be looking to trim instead of add.

It’s the same MO for me a fair amount of the time.. I’ve mentioned BUD and MMM here a few times. Why? Because they’re hated and I still think they’re quality companies. I’ve gotten into neither yet but I keep an eye on them. I think there’s a better chance for me to get into BUD some time down the line vs MMM because those lawsuits are a big overhang.

GE is another one that paid off that I brought up awhile ago. I thought aerospace/aviation was a jewel and HC an okay biz. That was a little more speculative (weird to say with GE) but the CEO from Danaher had a sterling track record. It’s been a slog and the pandemic didn’t make it any easier but now it’s doing much better and there’s plenty of light in the tunnel. The situation was about as much of a dog as you can find but there were solid to excellent parts to the company.

Basic theme is, I don’t get on stocks running hard. Wait for a pullback at least.
 
For me, no. I’m not one to hop on momentum. If the train has left the station without me, so be it. I’m not one for FOMO.

I can be a knife catcher though for whatever large/megacap names I consider high quality. It can be painful at times but often it comes through.

META was down 30% when I started and it was still way way early. I bought slowly all the way down using technicals at places where support might come in. No way did I think it or any of the other big techs would rebound as quick and hard as they did but I thought eventually they would. It paid off. Dividend payers are even better, then at least get something while you wait.

IMO, the time to slowly accumulate the big tech names was when they were crashing a little while ago. Now they’ve all shot to the moon fairly quickly. I’d be looking to trim instead of add.

It’s the same MO for me a fair amount of the time.. I’ve mentioned BUD and MMM here a few times. Why? Because they’re hated and I still think they’re quality companies. I’ve gotten into neither yet but I keep an eye on them. I think there’s a better chance for me to get into BUD some time down the line vs MMM because those lawsuits are a big overhang.

GE is another one that paid off that I brought up awhile ago. I thought aerospace/aviation was a jewel and HC an okay biz. That was a little more speculative (weird to say with GE) but the CEO from Danaher had a sterling track record. It’s been a slog and the pandemic didn’t make it any easier but now it’s doing much better and there’s plenty of light in the tunnel. The situation was about as much of a dog as you can find but there were solid to excellent parts to the company.

Basic theme is, I don’t get on stocks running hard. Wait for a pullback at least.
Some stocks don't really pullback, they just consolidate and keep moving. Besides, most big techs aren't even back to ATHs. This may be the correction of an overly negative decline.

I really like Danaher long-term, but I would stay away from BUD for now. Customers stopped buying one of their biggest brands. Will they ever come back? Don't know, but the competition seems to be picking up the business.
 
Jumping on those tech highflyers (aka "The Maginicent Seven") at this point = FOMO. Great companies at very high prices.
 
Some stocks don't really pullback, they just consolidate and keep moving. Besides, most big techs aren't even back to ATHs. This may be the correction of an overly negative decline.

I really like Danaher long-term, but I would stay away from BUD for now. Customers stopped buying one of their biggest brands. Will they ever come back? Don't know, but the competition seems to be picking up the business.
I only mentioned Danaher because Culp is from there. GE actually sold their health sciences group to Danaher for like 20 billion which helped pay down their massive debt at the time.

I think BUD will be fine because sooner or later it will trough both the stock and market share declines. They will likely have to do promotions and discounts but it will plateau somewhere along the way. Can’t say anything there’s anything special about the CEO though, same for MMM.
 
What a year for tech so far. I was reading about a month ago when Apple hit $175 people saying it's not a buy anymore yet it keeps going. Saw some forecasts for $240. Anyone still buying it along with the other big tech names?

e1dwsib54q9b1.jpg
I have a small quantity of all the big Seven except NVDA and been trading them. I’m betting on AAPL since Buffett owns so much, META is considered the best value, and AMZN. Lower expectation for MSFT and GOOG right now. After any significant drop I will add more shares. Sold all my TSLA. They don’t seem to retreat much. Might be the early innings of AI.
 
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Someone mentioned it when it hit $40 a couple months ago. I didn’t like it as it showed no sign of it bottoming. Welp that was literally the bottom. Up over 50% since.
I think that someone was also him ^^^^^. Sadly, I didn't buy it either.
 
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