Of all the G7 countries the US has the highest growth since coming out of the pandemic and currently the lowest inflation
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Sold NVDA on the US govt news of AI chip sale restrictions to the CCP. Taking the $285 a share profit on 50 shares, in the face of 50X forward earnings and bad news….
NVDA had a great run and taking profits now is reasonable. However, NVDA is going much, much higher over the next few years. Their H-100 chip is powering AI and it's really the only game in town now. Q2 earnings will beat guidance. JH has a long history of sandbagging public forecasts.
yeah but one has to stick to one's core principle- this principle is "take profits in the middle of a bubble".
I think that was a prudent move. NVDA CFO with statement that there should be no material impact from China export rules.
This post is pure cray-cray.Most new jobs post CV-19 going to foreign born
"Even though numerous bank analysts and strategist have repeatedly raised questions and concerns about the credibility of the most important US economic data - the monthly jobs report - nothing ever changes and if it does, it comes in the form of periodic "seasonal adjustment" resets where we "learn" that all the data that guided markets and central banks, had been fake, manipulated wrong for years.
But even if one ignores the blatant manipulation of economic data by self-serving administrations, who hope to generate political brownie points by casting the economy in a far stronger light than is merited in reality, there are still various bizarre offshoots within the data which few notice yet which are instrumental to maintaining the fake narrative...
Yet one place where the BLS has allowed a glaring data deficiency to persist, is in what will soon be a very politically charged and sensitive data series: where have all the new workers come from.
As noted above, if one believes the BLS, US payrolls are now a record high 155.7 million, or 161 million employed workers according to the Household survey. But if one digs a little deeper, one finds something rather peculiar: all of the jobs created since the covid crash have gone to foreign-born workers!"
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
My take.....I dumped it from my EV custom basket and replaced it with INDI (auto focused semi company). Seems like TSLA is running the table on charging network formats. CHPT is the best of the independent charging companies, but I'm not confidence about its future.
How can anyone not take some profit on NVDA? Still, I’m hanging on to most of the shares for the long-term.
Can't argue with this. As per my post last week, I sold half of my TQQQ position.
First bought NRG in dec 2020. Have also added along the way, including earlier this year at around $33.
It's been a dud, any time it get's going, some news comes out and crushes it. I'm just a bit in the green overall. And it does pay a 4% div.
I bring it up now because it looks like it just cleared a resistance level at around $35, and could have a runway up into the mid $40s. Serious resistance there that dates back to 2008. If it get's to $40, I'll start selling upside calls.
Tons of stuff working now, so maybe not worth the trade, but I'm holding, so I'm hopeful.
It's been a dud, any time it get's going, some news comes out and crushes it. I'm just a bit in the green overall. And it does pay a 4% div.
I bring it up now because it looks like it just cleared a resistance level at around $35, and could have a runway up into the mid $40s. Serious resistance there that dates back to 2008. If it get's to $40, I'll start selling upside calls.
Tons of stuff working now, so maybe not worth the trade, but I'm holding, so I'm hopeful.
DIS is in massive debt due to the Fox deal and even though theme park business is booming, most of their movies are bombing. Add in current political perception issues, DIS stock may be stuck in the mud for a while. I believe it is clearly undervalued, but that may not matter short term.
My guess is that in the long run, CHPT will be fine. TSLA has most of its chargers set up in strip malls, etc. Good for fast charging and will work well for travelers, etc. CHPT may need to raise cash to convert its chargers to NACS. CHPT also has more of its chargers in office buildings which will likely become a place that people charge outside of homes. I am in the camp of thought that allowing other car manufacturers to use TSLA superchargers may hurt TSLA in the long run. Eventually TSLA will need to perfect autonomous driving or else the P/E ratio will no longer be justified.
interesting...
I've certainly seen how ABnB has screwed-up neighborhoods - with transients and strains on parking..
but, not sure I see it leading to a housing bubble....
www.newsweek.com
I've certainly seen how ABnB has screwed-up neighborhoods - with transients and strains on parking..
but, not sure I see it leading to a housing bubble....
Fall in Airbnb listings revenues sparks housing market crash fears
Data shows that Airbnb revenues per listing have dropped by nearly 50 percent in some cities over a year—a decline that could force 'newbie' owners to sell, an expert said.
www.newsweek.com
We had a big ABNB issue pre-COVID where someone started renting out their large vacant home in a residential neighborhood for parties. An ordinance came quickly to shut that s down.interesting...
I've certainly seen how ABnB has screwed-up neighborhoods - with transients and strains on parking..
but, not sure I see it leading to a housing bubble....
Fall in Airbnb listings revenues sparks housing market crash fears
Data shows that Airbnb revenues per listing have dropped by nearly 50 percent in some cities over a year—a decline that could force 'newbie' owners to sell, an expert said.
I live in a secluded, private gated-community in the mountains of northwestern NC. Something like two-dozen homes on the mountaintop. Approx half were vacation rentals. 1/4 are second homes. Remaining 1/4 are full-time residents. Since COVID, those part-timers have sold out to commercial buyers from CA, FL, OH, etc. Rental properties were always problematic. And now, more rentals = more problems and associated expenses to undo damages caused by renters, who look at the place as a resort, in which staff will clean up their mess, etc. And then in winter, they're driving up in vehicles that are not suited to mountains in winter, despite receiving guidance on the necessity of AWD/4WD and chains. (At 4800-feet, we'll get 60" of snow in a season. And you've got to prepare to stay put for days at a time.) So these folks are parking wherever they can reach, commonly blocking the roadway, making snow removal difficult, etc. And they end up in ditches, stranded, seeking help. One actually drove off the road down a steep descent, unaware the road turned. Among other offenses: they build fires outdoors in windy conditions; they leave full trash containers outside, attracting bears and creating scattered litter; they do not have the correct gate code, so they try to force open the gate, remove the chain, cause the gate to go on "lockdown," etc. We constantly remind rental owners and property management agencies of the dynamics. They communicate these items in via their rental agreements, yet renters fail to comply. So... yeah... not a fan of the whole ABNB, VRBO, etc. SMFH....interesting...
I've certainly seen how ABnB has screwed-up neighborhoods - with transients and strains on parking..
but, not sure I see it leading to a housing bubble....
Fall in Airbnb listings revenues sparks housing market crash fears
Data shows that Airbnb revenues per listing have dropped by nearly 50 percent in some cities over a year—a decline that could force 'newbie' owners to sell, an expert said.
That’s crazy, it was not always like this to this extent with vacation rental units. What happened? Is everyone a ****ing sloth degenerate now?
If the community is big enough, and half are being rented out weekly, think about how many vacationers are coming up there on the weekly. If there are 50 units, and 1% of the vacationers are sloth defenerates, you have something being effed up every other week.
It's a numbers game.
As a rental owner myself, I always say "the money can't be that easy". So yeah people eff shit up, and sometimes it's pulling teeth to get the money, and sometimes you even have to write off a couple months of income because they just ain't paying. But I look at the profit, not the profit lost. And of course, factor those expenses, and lost profits into the monthly.
HII on a iddy biddy run, needs to break this $220 level to avoid a head and shoulder. Get through that and it's back to testing that $260 resistance level, which dates back a bunch of years.
I think the fundamentals suggest it will break through that technical resistance. Expected EPS growth looks good through at least 2026. Currently a 15x P/E.
I think the fundamentals suggest it will break through that technical resistance. Expected EPS growth looks good through at least 2026. Currently a 15x P/E.
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So... let's acknowledge that rentals result in greater expenses for the POA, in my case, for example. Should rentals be billed a premium regarding annual POA dues, say 50% more than non-rentals?
Need to see the expenses caused by the renters vs owners, and base it off that. 50% sounds extreme, but maybe in certain cases? Or just as a deterrent?
We also own a condo(which we currently live in, but we did rent previously), and there was a move in charge, so each time a new renter moved in there was that fee. We are not allowed to ABnB though. Which I get, but would be nice to be ABnB but also crash here from time to time.
Long-term vs Short-term is the difference. Here we're looking at a week-long rental, maybe two-weeks. In some cases, a couple properties are ABnB, likely with a three-night minimum. But the POA is transparent with "money in" and "money out." So "gate repair/service calls" and other damage-related repairs/expenses are documented for all to see. In my experience, off-site for-profit commercial property owners refuse to acknowledge that their operation is resulting in greater expense than a non-rental property. "Prove it," is the typical response. They are here for $. Goodwill? Not so much. Anyway, as a result, their commercial enterprise raises the cost for residents.
Should def be brought up at the POA meetings. Hopefully you have the votes.
Q1 growth higher than first reported:
www.cnbc.com
Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q2 is about the same. Recession?
First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision
The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought.
Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q2 is about the same. Recession?
Nike beats sales expectations, misses on earnings as margins drop
Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings that beat Wall Street's expectations on revenue but missed on profits.
Someone mentioned that if Foot Locker reports a bad quarter, then Nike will (since a large portion of Nike sales come from that store). Nice leading indicator.Nike beats sales expectations, misses on earnings as margins drop
Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings that beat Wall Street's expectations on revenue but missed on profits.
CNBC talking heads trying to convince me to sell my WFC and C for MS and GS. Investment banks over the big money centers.
WFC was the best performer today though on a good day for the banks, and also the best performer over the last 3 months.
C and WFC serious underperformers over the last 5 years. MS the best performer. Better then the SPY even.
WFC was the best performer today though on a good day for the banks, and also the best performer over the last 3 months.
C and WFC serious underperformers over the last 5 years. MS the best performer. Better then the SPY even.
Lots of HD love lately.
Laggard to the home builders, and below it's 10 year P/E multiple. EPS is expected to decrease into 2024, but it does always beat, and those expectations seem not to be factoring in that new homes keep ripping.
Somewhat related my buddy recommended UWMC. Mortgage origination company. 7% div, and the chart looks great since in bottomed last October, with a near double since. Currently at $5.60, look out for a double top near $6, but if it clears that I think I'm getting in.
Laggard to the home builders, and below it's 10 year P/E multiple. EPS is expected to decrease into 2024, but it does always beat, and those expectations seem not to be factoring in that new homes keep ripping.
Somewhat related my buddy recommended UWMC. Mortgage origination company. 7% div, and the chart looks great since in bottomed last October, with a near double since. Currently at $5.60, look out for a double top near $6, but if it clears that I think I'm getting in.
WFC is one of the best banks to own. One of the biggest holdings of DODGX. Gold 5-Star Morningstar value fund. One of my favorites.
Inflation continues to plummet (even via gov'ment math). Look for a larger decrease next month for CPI, PPI, and PCE as we lap the June 2022 peak:
A Commerce Department report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, advanced 3.8%, compared with a 4.3% rise in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month.
A Commerce Department report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, advanced 3.8%, compared with a 4.3% rise in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month.
I’ve mentioned a few times here before the pandemic and during it, that 80s area has been long support that has held.
It’s likely going to be a slog before it gets better. Writers and possible actors strike doesn’t help. Lower 80s or high 70s with a stop if support did break might not be a bad idea.
ESPN lays off about 20 on-air personalities including NBA analysts Jeff Van Gundy and Jalen Rose
ESPN is laying off about 20 on-air employees as part of a broader cost cutting effort.
It might take time but in a year or two it will start moving upward. The same thing happen to American Express when it went down but in about 1-2 years it came roaring back. It was 135 then dropped to 74 and 2 years later 174. Sometime it’s 6 months other times its2 years.I’ve mentioned a few times here before the pandemic and during it, that 80s area has been long support that has held.
It’s likely going to be a slog before it gets better. Writers and possible actors strike doesn’t help. Lower 80s or high 70s with a stop if support did break might not be a bad idea.
ESPN lays off about 20 on-air personalities including NBA analysts Jeff Van Gundy and Jalen Rose
ESPN is laying off about 20 on-air employees as part of a broader cost cutting effort.
Selling portion of my tech, TSLA, MSFT, META, and UNH, and BDX today. Will continue to buy more if it’s go down. Between 25-35% in the market and probably 50% in treasuries and CD.
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I'm working on a plan for my TQQQ proceeds. I may just downgrade to QLD (2x QQQ) and just hold super long. Not sure? Likely part this and part a new custom basket of stocks.
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