They’re still providing broadband to most people. I’ve mentioned here long ago if/when wireless high speed broadband becomes ubiquitous and reliable then that would be a real threat. It’s still not there yet.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Current I-Bond rate is 4.3%. Not too bad. It'll reset in November. As for buying Treasuries at auction, the best path is via a brokerage account vs TreasuryDirect. That TreasuryDirect link I provided will take you to the auction schedule (download the PDF), indicating the dates of upcoming auctions for notes, bills, bonds. When you go to your brokerage account, look for something like "Bonds and CDs" then "New or Auction" (vs buying on the secondary market). The Treasuries will only appear as available for purchase beginning the day that the auction opens. Not as complicated as it sounds. There are good YouTube vids on the exact process for different brokerage accounts: Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, etc. Have a look.
Thanks everyone for sharing your information and opinions. Lots of useful advice in this thread.
Bought PSNY in the premarket pretty much at the highs of the early session. Down 4% by about 11AM i added a few jan 24 $7.50 calls.
Meanwhile FSR ripped today. Looks like Barrons put out a “Buy” headline. Seems I bought the wrong EV horse, for today at least.
Also bought RIG. I was up 2ish% by days end.
Sold this weeks RIVN calls. $31 strikes for about %2 premium.
Meanwhile FSR ripped today. Looks like Barrons put out a “Buy” headline. Seems I bought the wrong EV horse, for today at least.
Also bought RIG. I was up 2ish% by days end.
Sold this weeks RIVN calls. $31 strikes for about %2 premium.
I'm looking at Jan 25 calls for both PSNY and RIVN. Still figuring out the details. FSR is not in good shape with cash on hand or operational efficiency. My EV manufacturer plays are TSLA, LI, PSNY, and RIVN. All other EV companies have some serious proving to do!
LI is way more advanced than NIO based on units sold, growth, and profitability forecast.
LI sold much more units because it’s hybrid. Like most of the Americans, most of the customers in China still do not understand the EV concept very well.
Yes LI is better from a financial perspective, but NIO is aiming much much higher than most of the people realize.
Among LI, NIO, and XPEV, which one spends the least in R&D? LI.
Which one spends the least in charging networks? LI.
FYI - interesting news:
The Nasdaq 100 index will be a "special rebalance" to address the overconcentration of Big Tech. It will happen before the opening on July 24. The move "will not result in the removal or addition" of any stocks, the Nasdaq said in a press release.
The Nasdaq 100 index will be a "special rebalance" to address the overconcentration of Big Tech. It will happen before the opening on July 24. The move "will not result in the removal or addition" of any stocks, the Nasdaq said in a press release.
LI has plans for pure EVs in the near future, but let's be honest, many areas of China won't be prepared for mass EV adoption for a long, long time.
NIO may be a winner, but it will be down the road. They remain on my watchlist.
Not sure of the details yet, but I guess bumping down the allocations of the Big 7 to bring them more inline with historic norms?
Judge lifts the injunction! :)
Just got to shake it off and move on. Let's see how my TMF trade goes. I assume with a good CPI print tomorrow, rates will move down for a while.
Lessen the weighting of those recent tech highflyers and then adding the weight of those other 93 or so companies, some more than others. So certain equities could see a bump up as a result of their newfound heavier weighting.
From Real Money/The Street:
How Has This Happened?
The story behind this almost isolated selloff is simply this: During the first half of 2023, as the headline equity indexes rallied for the most part on poor or narrow market breadth, the mega-cap tech names led the way higher. These stocks rallied almost in isolation and benefited to a far greater degree than did the broader US equity market at large over the past six months.
These few stocks have come to dominate by weighting the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 Index. That Nasdaq 100 is up 37.53% year to date versus the Nasdaq Composite's 30.76%. The S&P 500, for perspective, is up 14.85% this year.
The Rules
Nasdaq rules state that if all stocks weighing 4.5% or more individually upon the index exceed in aggregate, more than a 48% weighting upon the Nasdaq 100 index, the index must then rebalance. The rules states that this aggregate rebalancing must reset this weighting at 40%. Six of these seven mega-cap stocks weigh at least 4.5% upon the Nasdaq 100... Microsoft (12.9%) Apple (12.5%), Alphabet (7.4%), Nvidia (7%), Amazon (6.9%), and Tesla (4.5%). Meta Platforms does not weigh 4.5%, and META was the one stock of the seven that gained on Monday. The other six sold off.
Wells Fargo analyst Chris Harvey has some ideas for what names might be on the upsize list when these details are announced on Friday: Starbucks (SBUX) , Mondelez (MDLZ) , Bookings Holdings (BKNG) , Gilead Sciences (GILD) , Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) , Analog Devices (ADI) , and Automatic Data Processing ADP.
So... you're saying there's still a chance I could become a quadrillionaire by market close tomorrow?
Another article on the rebalance:
www.reuters.com
Explainer: What is Nasdaq's special rebalancing and its impact?
A "special rebalance" of the Nasdaq 100 index will take place later this month as exchange operator Nasdaq looks to reduce the concentration of heavyweight companies that account for nearly half of the index's weight.
Sure. Absolutely. Assuming today that you are a quintillionaire.
RIVN running into major resistance at $26. Let's see how the stock responds. If it falls below lets say $24/23 or particularly below $21 then it could drop all the way to ~$17-18. If it consolidates here at $24-26 the way PLTR, TSLA, AI did after their big run up then we will eventually see it break upwards. The next 1-2 weeks are critical here. My bet is consolidation, but any decisive break downwards and it will be time to sell.
PSNY just barely broke above the 200 day MA and there is some resistance between $5-5.3. No firm resistance levels established yet for this stock, so we shall see.
PSNY just barely broke above the 200 day MA and there is some resistance between $5-5.3. No firm resistance levels established yet for this stock, so we shall see.
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RIVN isn't stock for me and I only look at it when it's brought up here. I saw the excitement on it on Friday but that looked liked the first day it broke and closed above the 200DMA. A positive sign but it could also have been a false breakout. It's at least held that though the next 2 trading days. It also looks short term overbought so a breather and consolidation while still holding the 200DMA would be a good thing.
Good stuff. How do you feel about RIVN long term? I believe their next earnings report is out in early August. They need to continue to tighten efficiencies and spending (which they have recently).
CPI print well below expectations! Across the board:
CPI headline YoY = 3.0%
CPI core YoY = 4.8%
CPI headline and core MoM = 0.2%
Look at this, we all know CPI shelter is BS:
"Housing costs were the biggest driver of inflation, according to the Labor Department, fueling more than 70 percent of price growth in June."
Inflation is GONE everywhere, except in this one garbage shelter gov'ment data set. LOL!.
thehill.com
CPI headline YoY = 3.0%
CPI core YoY = 4.8%
CPI headline and core MoM = 0.2%
Look at this, we all know CPI shelter is BS:
"Housing costs were the biggest driver of inflation, according to the Labor Department, fueling more than 70 percent of price growth in June."
Inflation is GONE everywhere, except in this one garbage shelter gov'ment data set. LOL!.
Inflation slowed to 3 percent in June, hits lowest rate in two years
Consumer prices rose 3 percent annually in June and 0.2 percent last month alone, according to inflation data released Wednesday by the Labor Department. The consumer price index (CPI) posted its s…
thehill.com
YET THEY WILL STICK TO THEIR GUNS +.25 coming regardless.CPI print well below expectations! Across the board:
CPI headline YoY = 3.0%
CPI core YoY = 4.8%
CPI headline and core MoM = 0.2%
Look at this, we all know CPI shelter is BS:
"Housing costs were the biggest driver of inflation, according to the Labor Department, fueling more than 70 percent of price growth in June."
Inflation is GONE everywhere, except in this one garbage shelter gov'ment data set. LOL!.
Inflation slowed to 3 percent in June, hits lowest rate in two years
Consumer prices rose 3 percent annually in June and 0.2 percent last month alone, according to inflation data released Wednesday by the Labor Department. The consumer price index (CPI) posted its s…
Next Fed meeting will be a test:YET THEY WILL STICK TO THEIR GUNS +.25 coming regardless.
How stupid are Fed members really?
😄
People have been saying the Fed should take the foot off the peddle for months. Prof Siegel was very emphatically saying it in Nov last year.YET THEY WILL STICK TO THEIR GUNS +.25 coming regardless.
But the economy keeps rolling, and inflation is not quite dead.
Inflation is over. Headline came in at 2.97% YoY. Look at that BS shelter metric, essentially that's the only inflation still showing up in the math. Get rid of that garbage lagging data and use real-time shelter data, both YoY Headline and Core are BELOW 2%. Problem solved!
WTI back to $75. If the fed turns dovish, say they were to cut, not because the economy is faltering, but because they think they have inflation tamed, where do we think WTI goes from there? My guess is higher.Inflation is over. Headline came in at 2.97% YoY. Look at that BS shelter metric, essentially that's the only inflation still showing up in the math. Get rid of that garbage lagging data and use real-time shelter data, both YoY Headline and Core are BELOW 2%. Problem solved!
FYI - from EY from SOFI:
Annnd we have a 2-handle...CPI came in below est on both headline (2.97% y/y & 0.2% m/m) & core (4.83% y/y & 0.2% m/m). Yields are down, stock futures are up. If we needed reason to believe a July hike isn't guaranteed, this was it.
Stop using the stupid CPI shelter data and we all would have some room for other categories to bounce around and still remain below 2% headline. Also, just stop raising and being dumb. Feel free to hold for a while, but raising any more is moronic.
I've thought for awhile that they should just hold, wait and see and then go from there, but they've remained aggressive, the economy looks good, the market looks great, and inflation isn't quite dead yet(see wages, and I understand that isn't necessarily bad).
We all know they were late to react, but since they've started hiking, there isn't much there to suggest they're doing this wrong. Though I will acknowledge "yet".
Small caps are a good play right now. Got a sizable UWM position in one of my rollover IRAs.....so real money, not just fun money! :)
Just want to see the Fed be smarter with the data they use and talk about. Math matters. As I have mentioned many times before, using lagging data (especially when more real-time data is available) for making forward looking policy decisions is nonsensical. That's like driving a car by only looking in the rearview mirror.
Forecasting is one of the functions I lead in my department, so stuff like this annoys the heck out of me! LOL.
Peanut gallery post.
You're free to criticize the Fed because you aren't responsible for any negative consequences that might arise from your self-declared "better" approach. You have no academic credentials or practical experience to make you qualified to speak knowledgeably or authoritatively on the subject.
But please carry on telling us how much smarter you are than the Fed members.
Time for the regionals?
Unrelated but UNH still trending down, I'm def keeping an eye on that. It's held mid $450's twice this year, and it's back there now. The 10 year chart was as good as the likes of AAPL and MSFT heading into this year, but they've gone in opposite directions in 2023.
But the result suggest that the data they have used during this hike cycle has guided them well.
If they had used the shorter term data which was showing much less inflation, and had turned dovish earlier this year, they are very likely dealing with higher inflation right now.
Now, this argument is very much a moment in time, if, because of lagging rate hike effects, there is another wave of regional bank failures, or some other unexpected negative result, then we can point back at the fed as going too far, but right now, with the economy humming, the market up, and still signs of some inflation, it seems they are doing this correctly.
And on cue, Tiffany Wilding from Pimco on CNBC now thinking lag effects will slow economy and lead to a recession. Now that could be what the fed wants to fully squash inflation, but we have been hearing these calls for months now, and they have been incorrect.
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