Yup. They will all have new jobs by the end of the week. Just like the tech workers that were "laid off" last year.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
NKLA up 17% on news of an order from JB Hunt.
One analyst put a $3 price target but kept the rating at a neutral due to balance sheet concerns.
One analyst put a $3 price target but kept the rating at a neutral due to balance sheet concerns.
Also a concern, those trucks going to JB Hunt only "work" when they are going downhill! :)
Nice move, great results. Speaking of surprises, is freaking ROKU a buy?
From our friends at ARK:
Streaming Is Disrupting Traditional Media
Last week, Roku reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings for the second quarter. Given its strong revenue growth, expanding user base, and steady gains in market share, we believe that the Roku platform is causing and capitalizing on dramatic shifts in media consumption. Investors interested in learning more about ARK’s Roku research are welcome to access our open-source Roku model and blog.
Disrupting Traditional TV Viewing
Streaming was transforming the TV industry during the second quarter:
- Global Streaming Hours: Roku's global streaming hours grew by 21% year-over-year, while traditional TV viewing in the US declined by 13%, as reported by Nielsen.
- Ad Spend on Traditional TV: Traditional TV ad spend declined 9.4% year-over-year, while the spot, or scatter, ad market dropped 17.2% year-over-year, according to SMI data. In contrast, Roku’s platform revenue increased 11%.
Roku’s User Engagement And Expansion During The Second Quarter
- Active Accounts: active accounts increased by 1.9 million to reach 73.5 million, up 16% year-over-year. Roku also gained share across the range of TV sizes. The large screen segment grew ~70% year-over-year, pushing the Roku operating system’s (OS) already leading TV OS even higher into #1 territory in the US.
- Streaming Hours on The Roku Channel: streaming hours on The Roku Channel grew by more than 50% year-over-year and, according to Nielsen, represented 1.1% of total US TV viewing in May, ranking The Roku Channel alongside Peacock and close to HBO Max.
Santa Claus rally came early. Entire yield curve above 4% and Fed not done with their hammer. My double digit yield mortgage REIT has been slipping price wise (after many weeks of rallying) the past few days.😬
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Piling cash dividends from crappy interest sensitive etf investments (but with still solid cash flow) into more MSFT as Ill DCA even as it continues going up…. My avg cost is 300 right now so can’t complain.
AMD reports better-than-expected results even as PC market shows continued weakness
AMD reported an 18% decline in year-over-year revenue in the second quarter and issued a sales forecast that trailed analysts' estimates.
AMD up 4% with the nice earnings beat. :)AMD reports better-than-expected results even as PC market shows continued weakness
AMD reported an 18% decline in year-over-year revenue in the second quarter and issued a sales forecast that trailed analysts' estimates.www.cnbc.com
AMD reports better-than-expected results even as PC market shows continued weakness
AMD reported an 18% decline in year-over-year revenue in the second quarter and issued a sales forecast that trailed analysts' estimates.
Beat on both revs and eps.
So revs and eps being down yoy was fully expected and baked in. And then a slight beat.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see it down tomorrow though.
Well, it was up almost 3% during the session and then another 2-3% after hours. Nice movement.
I'm thinking about a super short call trade for NVDA earnings. I bet NVDA blows away their numbers.
Speaking of plays, as I mentioned a few days ago, important PDUFA dates coming up for CRSP and BLUE sickle cell gene therapies. Big pops if they get approved:
Despite safety concerns, gene therapies clinically beneficial for sickle cell disease | Healio | July 31, 2023
Key takeaways:
• Gene therapies substantially improve quality and length of life among patients with sickle cell disease.
• Two one-time gene therapies would be cost-effective if priced between $1.35 million and $2.05 million.
Evidence suggests two investigational gene therapies provide net health benefits compared with standard approaches for sickle cell disease, according to a revised evidence report from Institute for Clinical and Economic Review.
The report — along with a subsequent Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) regional California Technology Assessment Forum (CTAF) panel — expressed less confidence about the long-term safety and efficacy of lovotibeglogene autotemcel (lovo-cel; bluebird bio) and exagamglogene autotemcel (exa-cel; CRISPR Therapeutics, Vertex Pharmaceuticals).
Lovotibeglogene autotemcel — often called lovo-cel — uses a lentivirus vector to insert a functioning version of the HBB gene into the patient’s own stem cells. Exagamglogene autotemcel — often called exa-cel — deploys CRISPR-based technology to delete a portion of the BC11A gene to increase the amount of fetal hemoglobin in red blood cells.
“Although uncertainties about durability and harm remain, both lovo-cel and exa-cel are likely to substantially improve quality and length of life among patients with [sickle cell disease],” the report read. “Serious adverse events were attributed to myeloablative conditioning, they were not infrequent, and chemotherapy is required before receiving both lovo-cel and exa-cel.”
The FDA accepted biologics license applications for both one-time gene therapies. Regulatory decisions about commercial availability are expected in December.
The report concluded that lov-cel provided at least an “incremental net benefit” compared with standard therapies, equating to a “incremental or better” B+ rating over standard therapies for individuals with sickle cell disease.
Exa-cel earned a C++ rating of “comparable or better,” meaning the benefit it provides may range from comparable to “substantial net health benefit” compared with standard sickle cell disease therapies.
Data from the report showed that lovo-cel and exa-cel would achieve common thresholds for cost-effectiveness if priced between $1.35 million to $2.05 million per treatment.
The CTAF panel cast separate 13-1 votes declaring the net health benefits of exa-cel and lovo-cel superior to standard treatments, such as hydroxyurea, chronic blood transfusions, pain medication or iron chelation.
The panel unanimously concluded that current available evidence — including lack of head-to-head comparative trials or indirect comparative analyses — could not allow them to determine if either gene therapy would provide a net health benefit.
CTAF panelists expressed concerns about the long-term safety and efficacy of exa-cel, the first CRISPR-based gene therapy to apply for FDA approval. The ICER report raised the issue of short follow-up contributing to uncertainty about safety.
“From the earliest days of gene therapy, patients, families and clinicians have imagined that someday it might be possible to address the underlying genetics of sickle cell to achieve a cure,” David Rind, MD, ICER’s chief medical officer, said in a press release.
“These first two genetic therapies, using different technologies and altering different genetic targets, may mean that day has nearly arrived,” Rind added. “However, the need for autologous bone marrow transplantation with these therapies means they come with important potential risks, and the first CRISPR therapy necessarily has even greater uncertainties about longer-term risks and durability of benefit than a lentiviral gene therapy.”
Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA
The rating agency cited "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years."
Those darn Democratic presidents keep getting us downgraded! :)Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA
The rating agency cited "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years."
Not yet. Both PDUFA dates are in December. Might be an ultra short-term call opportunity. Hoping for the approval pop.
CSRP goes first. If they get approved, BLUE getting approved is almost guaranteed (since their data is better).
Definitely a buy the dip opportunity. Just an overreaction to essentially a meaningless gesture (one that is resolved until 2025).
Up a little under 2% in premarket.
But ya AMD has been on a great run. A double since Nov. So a pull back wouldn’t be bad thing.
Edit: Now down 4.5%. Granted broader market sell off.
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ENPH down to $143. Given back all of its bounce.
I saw it at $140 in premarket after its earnings. But i think this is in session lows. I say there is more downside.
I had read some good looking projections a couple years out. Have to look to see if those were revised down.
Keeping an eye on it.
I saw it at $140 in premarket after its earnings. But i think this is in session lows. I say there is more downside.
I had read some good looking projections a couple years out. Have to look to see if those were revised down.
Keeping an eye on it.
I sold most of my equity the last few days since almost everything was at their 52 week high and it was the end of earning season. I brought some short term CD for 60 days but waiting for at least 10% drop on the stocks that I’m tracking before buying.
I'm think with the artificial spike in yields today, perhaps a TLT/TMF play is in order? I have some free time at lunch and will assess!
Opportunity for a LEAPS play? I continue to eye RIVN for a long call play. Down today, but hoping it get back down to $20'ish.
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+1
Stupid decision, but completely nonsensical timing. This will hurt Fitch in the long run.
IDK I’m still thinking there is room to run once we get past this Fitch BS and then expect big drop late in the year when tax selling and portfolio rebalancing takes over. Every time I’ve sold off and raised cash I’ve been wrong. I bought some AMD and DraftKings today. Picked up more SOFI yesterday after big drop.
I’m been selling off after earning season for several years but it doesn’t mean I don’t think the market won’t go higher. In the past, stocks normally retreat sufficiently before the next earning season. The high flyers need to retreat somewhat, at least 8-10%, before going to new highs. The stock market doesn’t go straight up.
Added to my 2 custom baskets at lunch time, also bought some Jan TMF calls. Otherwise, just watching and waiting right now. Important earnings tomorrow, great season so far! 80% beat rate.
Doesn't that lead to crappy tax situations with your investments? Or do you make sure you hold stuff more than a year before including it in the post-earning-season sell-off?
IRA trading. I do have a taxable smaller account that I will try to buy stocks that I am holding for a longer time period, however, if it’s a significant profit I want to recognize, the tax is only a portion of the gain. At this point, probably have 30-40% in CD and treasuries that I use my taxable money.
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Yes it is a buying opportunity. I agree. Buying more China (short term), AI stocks.
Thoughts on TMF? I bought some Jan calls for this one. Added more FXI contracts as well.
A worrying sell signal just flashed for the stock market in August, says one of Wall Street's most reliable bulls
Not helping the market over the next few weeks is seasonal data, which shows that August and September are typically weak for stock market returns.
A potential stock market sell-off is imminent, according to one of Wall Street's most reliable bulls.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee has been one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street when nobody else was, and his forecasts have made investors who followed him a lot of money. That's why Lee's warning in a Wednesday note stands out.
While Lee is still bullish on stocks for the second half of the year, he sees worrying signals that led him to issue a tactical warning of a potential sell-off in the coming weeks.
"Markets in holding pattern until the July jobs [report] and July CPI. But be wary," he said. "Overall, we are entering August just a bit more wary than other months."
I get Tom Lee's research. Him and his TA partner, Mark Newton, have been warning members/clients of a modest pullback or choppiness in August. Likely 3-5%. Some due to seasonality, some due to the rally needing a breather. Both are bullish afterwards and calling for ATHs by year end.
A worrying sell signal just flashed for the stock market in August, says one of Wall Street's most reliable bulls
Not helping the market over the next few weeks is seasonal data, which shows that August and September are typically weak for stock market returns.www.yahoo.com
A potential stock market sell-off is imminent, according to one of Wall Street's most reliable bulls.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee has been one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street when nobody else was, and his forecasts have made investors who followed him a lot of money. That's why Lee's warning in a Wednesday note stands out.
While Lee is still bullish on stocks for the second half of the year, he sees worrying signals that led him to issue a tactical warning of a potential sell-off in the coming weeks.
Why J&J's 'Texas-two step' setback could make it harder for companies to shed lawsuits
A ruling against Johnson & Johnson raises new questions about a controversial bankruptcy tactic companies use to resolve costly claims.
Not a big fan of TMF. Rates are either going up or likely to stay high. If you believe in soft landing, then why would rates go down?
I'm just assuming that rates popped above 4% due to Fitch, so they will settle back below 4% soon again. Something like that. Not a long term hold. We shall see. Quick trigger on this one.
As inflation gets closer to 2%, the Fed will start cutting rates to get back to a neutral policy (likely 2.5-3%). Powell alluded to this at the last meeting. However, this won't start happening for a few quarters.
Truflation looking good at 2.23%:
