Since markets go up 75-80% of the time, keeping it simple and being a bull is the way to go. :)
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
LOL. Carter B Worth from CNBC and Market Call. Just watched Mark N's daily video, still bullish on China, the dollar and 10y rolling over, and metals (especially copper). Technicals look good for plays.
Been watching FCX and CLF. Took a peak at X (the OG X, not former twitter) just recently.
Still haven't jumped in.
Yeah, that guy.
And I do like hearing varying views on the market, but when 4 bears who have been wrong for 7 months all get together and agree with every reason proposed for why the market is set for a significant pull back it definitely sounds desperate.
That video was 4 bears confused on why the markets don't recognize their "facts" and beliefs on how bad things are. Kind of like watching a bunch of old men yelling at the sky.
BTW, did you notice that the Fed dropped their recession call for their base case?
Recession? LOL.
Also:
Commerce Department inflation gauge increased 2.6%, down from a 4.1% rise in Q1 and well below the estimate for a gain of 3.2%.
www.cnbc.com
Also:
Commerce Department inflation gauge increased 2.6%, down from a 4.1% rise in Q1 and well below the estimate for a gain of 3.2%.
GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls
Gross domestic product was expected to increase at a 2% annualized pace in the second quarter.
Earnings season is crushing it. Way better than expected. Great sign for the market. About 80% of S&P companies have beat.
QS still doesn't even have a product, let alone revenue! Wonder if that news is legit or just a "rumor".
Hmm, is ENPH a buying opportunity now? Great profitability, market growing, flat guidance due to interest rates and customers getting credit for purchases. Still seems like demand is strong.
This could be a capitulation moment after a long downward move. And this does look like a support level.
$1b buy back announced. 23b market cap.
That’s the problem with all of them. No legacy car companies are in my EV custom basket.
PCE plummets today:
Headline YoY down to 3.0%
Core falling more than expected
Life is good. :)
For those tracking earnings:
- Of the 243 companies that have reported so far (49% of the S&P 500):
- Overall, 79% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 6%.
- Of the 21% missing, those are missing by a median of -6%.
Headline YoY down to 3.0%
Core falling more than expected
Life is good. :)
For those tracking earnings:
- Of the 243 companies that have reported so far (49% of the S&P 500):
- Overall, 79% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 6%.
- Of the 21% missing, those are missing by a median of -6%.
I bought Jan 2024 calls for both BABA (100 strike) and FXI (29.85):
BABA calls up 27.4% today
FXI calls up 52.4% today
I feel like Roaring Kitty. 😁
YINN $42 calls expiring today were up 2900%. that is the real winning trade for today. That is how you win with leveraged ETF.
I bought Jan 2024 calls for both BABA (100 strike) and FXI (29.85):
BABA calls up 27.4% today
FXI calls up 52.4% today
I feel like Roaring Kitty. 😁
What was the expiration date on that call? Obviously, I'm using a longer duration. Not sure if I have the stomach right now for short term options! :)
But that makes sense when a market event is happening, like today's PCE print. Load up on just out of the money calls and if the news hits right.....KABOOM! Am I on the right track?
Those calls for YINN expired today.
If you had purchased the Aug 4, $100 calls for BABA, you would have been up more than 100% today and the premium you would have pain would have been about 1% instead of 10%. There is comfort in longer duration options, but the premiums are very expensive. If you are looking for a 4-5% gain on a volatile stock, then look to buy options that expire within a few weeks.
Nothing wrong about the strategy that you are using. You are just paying a very high premium for a small move in a volatile stock.
Got it, all good advice. I looked up that YINN July 28 call. WOW! It either hits or you are out the premium. Very risky, but you don't have to hit many such plays to make a ton. I guess super short expirations are good if an event is happening.....earnings report, macro data, etc. It was obvious PCE was coming in light based on CPI and PPI two weeks ago. All three regularly move in sync. Perhaps that can be used in the future. I will keep analyzing.
Appreciate the posts and ideas on this subject. Pretty fascinating stuff!
Last edited:
0DTE options are definitely very risky. That is why, one should only risk a small amount on those options. Last year was very unique in that it was almost predictable how the market was going to react to earnings and fed meetings. That made 0DTE very very profitable and more than made up for equity losses for the year.
Another good use of 0DTE or a few days is PDUFA dates for pharma and biotech. The FDA normally publishes decisions on the date itself. Two good examples below, need to do some more homework, but I think both sickle cell gene therapies get approved:
FDA Sets PDUFA Dates for First CRISPR Gene Edited Therapy
Exagamglogene autotemcel is being evaluated for patients with sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, in which a patient’s own hematopoietic stem cells are edited to produce high levels of fetal hemoglobin in red blood cells.
@T2Kplus20
Do you have BWA in your ev basket?
Ive been in and out, pretty sure I traded it poorly, but its cheap(11x I believe) and expected to grow earnings.
Has cleared a couple technical levels but still had a few more to wrk through.
Do you have BWA in your ev basket?
Ive been in and out, pretty sure I traded it poorly, but its cheap(11x I believe) and expected to grow earnings.
Has cleared a couple technical levels but still had a few more to wrk through.
I don't have it in my EV basket, mostly since it is not a pure EV play. I think it's a good opportunity. Morningstar has its FMV at $72 (after the Phinia Spinoff). Just not a fit with my current strategy for that basket.
As for EVs, besides adding money to my basket, I'm also looking at LEAPS for RIVN. Hoping it pulls back a bit first!
Another way to approach the EV arena.... Check out WOLF, the global leader in silicon carbide technology. EV manufacturers are planning to incorporate silicon carbide into power electronic devices in their products. Wolfspeed's new Mohawk Valley NY production facility is ramping up for this demand. Another new manufacturing facility is breaking ground in NC.
From WOLF: "Compared to conventional silicon power semiconductors, silicon carbide devices enable higher energy efficiency, greater power density and a lower system cost. In an increasingly energy-conscious world, the adoption of silicon carbide is becoming ever more pervasive across multiple high-volume applications spanning EVs, renewable energy and storage, charging infrastructure, industrial power supplies, traction and variable speed drives."
Follow Wolfspeed's developments: https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/news-events/
A Vietnamese EV maker, Vinfast, just broke ground right in the same NC county that WOLF is building its newest production facility. Vinfast: https://vinfastauto.us/
From WOLF: "Compared to conventional silicon power semiconductors, silicon carbide devices enable higher energy efficiency, greater power density and a lower system cost. In an increasingly energy-conscious world, the adoption of silicon carbide is becoming ever more pervasive across multiple high-volume applications spanning EVs, renewable energy and storage, charging infrastructure, industrial power supplies, traction and variable speed drives."
Follow Wolfspeed's developments: https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/news-events/
A Vietnamese EV maker, Vinfast, just broke ground right in the same NC county that WOLF is building its newest production facility. Vinfast: https://vinfastauto.us/
I thought there was a driver shortage?
Is it possible many of them end up with other carriers
Is it possible many of them end up with other carriers
