OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I think the economy, growing vs receding, is a big factor as well.
+1
We need growth to keep those earnings growing as well.
Getting back to some CRSP news:
- FDA approval triggers a $200m milestone payment from Vertex
- Price targets raised by most analysts, including one to $220 (which is a little nuts)
- Average price target is $84
- Morningstar FMV is $119
- CRSP has another PDUFA scheduled for March for this drug to get an indication to treat Beta-Thalassemia
Hopefully I make some money on these calls. If I do, I will likely buy the stock and hold for long-term.
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Fourth quarter looks to be coming in just higher than 1% annualized which after a 5% quarter is probably what you want to see. So as long as first quarter stays positive maybe a soft landing is what happens. Disflationary as well as outright deflationary numbers are now popping up globally.
+1
The bears that keep saying inflation is sticky and higher for longer are going to be shocked on how far inflation fails over the next 6-9 months. The math is baked. Also, AI is going to be one of the most powerful deflationary drivers of the past century.
The weird thing (at least compared to how high their inflation was not long ago) is how fast inflation (some regions even printing deflation) has fallen in Europe due to their weak economy. China’s economy is a true basket case for many reasons so I cringe when I see folks investing in China.
Chamath says that if we see 1-2 rate cuts in Q1, that more than $1T of sidelined money will head back into the market.
Nice run up by Broadcom (AVGO). Been such an underrated equity or at least, under promoted by the talking heads on CNBC and in the financial media. I barely heard any of these peopel promoting it. Everyone should have owned this in a long term portfolio. Great combo of growth plus dividend; they just increased it to 2.23% or $21/share/annum.
They’re great at M&A (Mergers and then Axing people). Sorry I missed the boat on the run up although I have some in my 401K.
MSFT has settled into a narrow trading range. I’m sure there will be fireworks just b4 and after next earnings release though.
Stephanie Link on the Halftime is a big proponent. A cheaper AI play then NVDA.
There are others on cnbc who talk it up as well.
Guy adami was making fun of the ticker but i think that was on his podcast
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I listened to one of the Guy, Dan, Danny, and Liz podcasts. Wow, it was a perma-bear therapy session! LOL. They really try to justify why the market shouldn't be up.
#dontfightthetape
They are soooo bear-ish. It's gotten pretty old.
On TV I wonder how much is them just filling the bearish role on the panel, but no excuse on the podcast.
When they had Mike Wilson in there a couple months ago it was kind of pathetic.
It would be painful to listen to the same thing over and over again. The Mike Wilson episode may be fun to check out for comedic purposes! They just seem so beaten down and angry, but still refusing to admit they were wrong and change their minds.
I have really come to appreciate Tom Lee and FS Insights. Of course they are bullish, but still call out short-term dips and weaknesses. They called the August/September/October dip perfectly and the November rally. Shockingly accurate.
Crazy idea.....PFE a buy now?
www.cnbc.com
Pfizer shares fall as 2024 revenue and profit forecast disappoints
After raking in billions from Covid products, Pfizer has struggled to navigate a world beyond the pandemic and reassure investors about its growth potential.
Powell declares victory and spikes the football (using Fed-talk)? Seemed like that. New ATH for the Dow.
www.cnbc.com
Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
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My wife has some share she inherited from her dad. We’ve been holding because I think mRNA technology has a big future well beyond Covid. The question is whether Pfizer can be one of the leaders here by expanding the new technology into other diseases. Their management seems to have been a mess for a fairly long time. So a big I don’t know from me…Crazy idea.....PFE a buy now?
Pfizer shares fall as 2024 revenue and profit forecast disappoints
After raking in billions from Covid products, Pfizer has struggled to navigate a world beyond the pandemic and reassure investors about its growth potential.
Astrology for stocks. What's your sign?For my TA friends. :)
I think all my accounts are now at ATHs. Just another example of the power of buy and hold! :)
As for PFE, yeah, no idea when they will turn it around. The stock just looks so cheap now. mRNA has a huge future, but it seems like Moderna is ahead on new uses and applications.
As a TSLA bull, how do you think 2024 will go? Pundits keep warning about demand and supply chain challenges, especially overseas. BS or accurate?
No mention of Fibonacci?!? Blasphemy!For my TA friends. :)
Demand remains strong for teslas. Other EVs outside of Chinese brands not so much. Other OEMs crying demand problems is code for we can't figure out how to manufacture at scale and be cash flow positive.
Energy is going to show the biggest growth in 24, with the Lathrop, Ca Megapack factory hitting full production, and Shanghai Megapack beginning production. Energy has surpassed auto on margin. Energy is the sleeping giant for 24. Demand for Megapack appears to be unlimited.
Auto catalysis include new model 3 production beginning in the US. New model 3 sales in Europe, China, and ROW from the shanghai plant are underway. Don't expect a ton of growth from Model Y as it is already the best selling vehicle globally. S & X sales flat too. S & X are mostly irrelevant. And of course Cybertruck! Probably won't move the needle much in 24. Looking for 250k production capacity by 2025. Cybertruck should produce a halo affect around the rest of the Tesla lineup, showcasing their engineering expertise, and boost sales.
Next generation vehicle (~$25k) should be revealed during 24, production in 25. Will be produced in Austin first and then expand to other factories.
Mexico factory breaks ground next year.
Additional factory announcements likely.... India & Indonesia are the most rumored.
Your free call option for 24 is FSD.
Version 12 FSD is supposed to be a huge step change. End to end neural nets.... video in, controls out. No more human coding. Tesla employees are driving this version currently and will be widescale released next year. Could this be the version that gets Tesla to robotaxi?
Software licensing of FSD to other OEMs?
Beyond 24 is Optimus. Naysayers scoffed at the prototype revealed in Sept 2022. The progress they've made in 16 months is astounding. Optimus will learn the same way as FSD 12.... video in, controls out. No human coding. Tesla's AI prowess is largely overlooked. Optimus could change the global economy.
So yeah, I'm bullish. I don't care about short term fluctuations, next quarter, next year, what Elon said on X..... I can see the long term trajectory, and IMO it's huge.
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Mortgage rates already starting to dip:
thehill.com
Mortgage rates dip below 7 percent after Fed forecasts rate cuts
U.S. mortgage rates dropped below 7 percent for the first time since August, according to new data released Thursday by Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates have been falling steadily for the past seven wee…
thehill.com
Great stuff. Really appreciate your insights on TSLA!
IMO it's a big no as a long term investment. I've mentioned this before, it's one of the first stocks I bought and still have some in old DRIP but I've not added to it other than dividend reinvestment. Their management has been lousy for long time and they don't really come up with new drugs. Their history is of acquiring them rather than developing them. Lipitor was their last big one. I can't remember if it was theirs or not though, I think it may have been Warner Lambert which Pfizer acquired (like I said acquisition not development). Elliquis is the last one hat's somewhat big but that's about it and it's with BMY.
The mRNA tech vaccines they got from the German company. That was their little boon and now it's worn off. I'd be surprised if they develop anything on their own with mRNA tech or for cancer or for weight loss or what have you lol.
That being said anything is tradeable, including PFE. It's kind of like an INTC imo, management has been bad for so long and overall it's generally a dog but it can have its moments. I mentioned INTC had support around mid high 20sish an it stuck around their for a bit and now has had a nice rally. I think it's bumping up against resistance now but if you got in at that time would have been a nice gain. If you stick around long enough though the managements (through multiple CEOs) at names like PFE or INTC will let you down, sometimes quite spectacularly lol. I do wonder how their foundries might be beneficial in the long term for them though. If by some chance they come across a good CEO, anything can change. I look no further than GE to see how much a good CEO can rescue a pathetic situation.
Yes, Lipitor was Warner Lambert. Pfizer bought them to get it.
The downside is that it’s just a car company and valuation will have to change. I give Musk credit for doing just enough to keep all the balls in the air.
Tesla YTD sales were up 26% yoy.
All other manufacturers were up 90%
TSLA's market share has fallen from 72% in 2021, 65% in 2022, to 56% through 3 qtr's in 2023, and 50% in the 3rd qtr.
All three of the S, 3 and X models were down yoy in the 3rd qtr. The S was down 65%. The X down 28%. The Y is ripping, at up 58%, but if that flattens out as you suggest it will, then where is TSLA getting it's growth from?
All in all I'm not buying the bolded.
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Barely, might end up with some shares, at around $3.30, via puts I sold.
The calls I bought are pretty much smoked.
BLUE exec are meeting with the FDA soon to appeal the decision not to issue a new PRV. They have a legit case, but I have no idea if/when the FDA would change their mind. My CRSP calls are still hanging in there. Hoping for one more pop before closing them.
