ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I've long said AI is a con and Nvidia is a con master of long standing.
Currently an executive order has gov agencies and businesses making "AI" central to operations (IRS loves it).
Its just a control app and nothing sublime and revolutionary.
Whatever "processors" Nvidia is hyping are no big deal.
If Nvidia added some extra cores to a CPU they would hype it as inventing the wheel
People are very naive about computer tech.


On top of all that, China's Xi announced around New Year's that they would be "unifying" with Taiwan. Taiwan has an election this month. Maybe Xi gets something he likes (about a third of Taiwan wants "unification") and maybe he doesn't. In that case he wont allow the current DC crew to go to waste. ME is much closer to blowing-up and SecDef (a key link in nuke response chain) is in hospital without telling people. Biggest war in history on deck imo. The West is in decay nevermind decline - hostile foreign countries see it very clear and are chuffed.

TSMC's US fabs cant get going easy because they cant hire people with skills in US

I take from that you feel it’s a house of cards. I’ll bear this in mind as I’ve owned a decent amount of the stock since at least 2015. I’ve done quite well with it. Seems to be running up again now and has legs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ashokan
Rather than investing in NVDA, you could hedge your bet and buy SOXX.

I’ve owned NVDA since 2018. The stock almost immediately went down 50% and stayed that way for about a year. Groan.

However, here we are in 2024 and the stock has been a 5-bagger for me (that includes a few purchases along the way). Demand for high-end chips is sky-high. Just note there’s always a lot of dramatic movements in chip stocks.
Demand for NVDA products will keep growing and growing for the foreseeable future. Buy and hold!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Hogleg
I take from that you feel it’s a house of cards. I’ll bear this in mind as I’ve owned a decent amount of the stock since at least 2015. I’ve done quite well with it. Seems to be running up again now and has legs.
One of the semi experts on CNBC believe NVDA will have at least 2 more quarters of big beats and raises. If true, the stock will continue to go up and up. We shall see!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Hogleg
Probably is only a matter of time though.

10 years? Maybe. Maybe less, maybe a lot less.
Set supply that will actually decrease over time (due to passcodes being lost and other user error) can drive the price to insane heights, if the demand to hold BTC is there.
 
Set supply that will actually decrease over time (due to passcodes being lost and other user error) can drive the price to insane heights, if the demand to hold BTC is there.
As I think younger people will view btc as a viable investment vehicle I do think the demand will be there.
 
Van Eck just announced live on CNBC they got SEC approval to start trading their BTC ETF tomorrow. I guess it is official.
 
I've long said AI is a con and Nvidia is a con master of long standing.
Currently an executive order has gov agencies and businesses making "AI" central to operations (IRS loves it).
Its just a control app and nothing sublime and revolutionary.
Whatever "processors" Nvidia is hyping are no big deal.
If Nvidia added some extra cores to a CPU they would hype it as inventing the wheel
People are very naive about computer tech.


On top of all that, China's Xi announced around New Year's that they would be "unifying" with Taiwan. Taiwan has an election this month. Maybe Xi gets something he likes (about a third of Taiwan wants "unification") and maybe he doesn't. In that case he wont allow the current DC crew to go to waste. ME is much closer to blowing-up and SecDef (a key link in nuke response chain) is in hospital without telling people. Biggest war in history on deck imo. The West is in decay nevermind decline - hostile foreign countries see it very clear and are chuffed.

TSMC's US fabs cant get going easy because they cant hire people with skills in US

"But, did those companies reduce costs, or create innovative tools with AI? No, not yet. Hence it is a bubble. "

That is some logic.
 
"But, did those companies reduce costs, or create innovative tools with AI? No, not yet. Hence it is a bubble. "

That is some logic.
Personally I really enjoyed the “AI is inflationary” because of course it will lead to Fed yield curve control.
OMFG
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
I take from that you feel it’s a house of cards. I’ll bear this in mind as I’ve owned a decent amount of the stock since at least 2015. I’ve done quite well with it. Seems to be running up again now and has legs.

Even bubbles can pay if people know they are bubbles.
Nvidia went-up 270% and some analysts correctly see it as overvalued

"Nvidia, the latest darling of Wall Street, has surged a stunning 207% this year, prompting some critics to suggest the stock may be overvalued."

Among them is David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs. "We're not denying that Nvidia is a great company, but we are pointing out that its valuation is beyond lofty and unjustifiable," he said last month."


As a PC enthusiast/builder I know cryptominers used video cards for calculations because they can do complex analysis and manipulations faster than CPUs. Graphics processors (gpus) are sports cars and central processors (cpus) are bulldozers. PC games dont rely on cpus but GPUs.

Now Nvidia always has a gimmick to maintain larger market share among gpu corps. One year it was "HairWorks" where it was claimed Nvida gpus could make character hair more natural looking. The hair was more "active" (blowing wind) but it took a huge chuck of resources. The Nvidia hype died down but only after people paid much more for the hype. Then Nvidia moved to the next hype - "ray-tracing."

Ray-tracing was all the rage on Nvidia's cards last year but people eventually realized that even experts could not pick between PCs running ray-tracing and those without it. Ray-tracing deflated but only after Nvidia played the buyers to get them to pay more.

Nvidia's "AI" marketing is the same. AI as hyped now is just an app that's using pattern-recognition algorithms. I call it all "Artificial Implementation" because there is nothing intelligent about it. It will do what its programmers want it to do. Alas they want people to think the AI is guiding itself and must be respected.

That's where other other part of the con is. AI is being set-up for control and not curing cancer, predicting weather etc. Gov wants it to control info. Agencies love it because they (and their less restricted contractors) can use it to do things without appearing in direct control. IRS wants to used AI to squeeze people like lemons - send them a bill for money "AI" says they probably owe. Getting an audit notice and an AI bill to be paid are very different


"All those dollars rolling in from enforcement activities are likely to rise going forward, given that the IRS announced over the summer that, thanks to a new funding boost, it was launching a “sweeping, historic” tax enforcement initiative using artificial intelligence (AI) and other cutting edge technologies to crack down more effectively on non-compliant taxpayers.

"The IRS has collected a record-shattering $4.9 trillion dollars in tax revenue from Americans as it increasingly relies on high tech like AI to boost collection"

Things like THAT^^^ and censorship, digital monitoring of behavior 9driving etc) is what is behind the AI marketing hype. AI news is just agitprop (like "Ukraine is winning") The "quantum" computing hardware and systems don't exist yet. AI = chains and people will realize it sooner or later. Play the bubble as a bubble for now imo.


DHS in charge of AI and that's all we need to know see where they want to go



BTW it was BoA calling AI a bubble in ZH article

c0O1bd7.jpg
 
Last edited:
Speaking of gov hype - the exaggerated jobs #s this year concealed most new jobs were part-time jobs sought by people trying to stay afloat. Now even those #s revised down.

Jobs report exaggerated the increase in U.S. hiring in 2023​

 
Speaking of gov hype - the exaggerated jobs #s this year concealed most new jobs were part-time jobs sought by people trying to stay afloat. Now even those #s revised down.

Jobs report exaggerated the increase in U.S. hiring in 2023​

well we know the data being fed to the press is not accurate and we've had monthly revisions that point to a much gloomier picture. In addition that, every major bank has increased their cash reserves at least 2x and some up to 4x!
 
  • Like
Reactions: ashokan
well we know the data being fed to the press is not accurate and we've had monthly revisions that point to a much gloomier picture. In addition that, every major bank has increased their cash reserves at least 2x and some up to 4x!
It will be interesting to see the first wave of bank earnings tomorrow! Probably going to be a mixed bag.
 
Speaking of gov hype - the exaggerated jobs #s this year concealed most new jobs were part-time jobs sought by people trying to stay afloat. Now even those #s revised down.

Jobs report exaggerated the increase in U.S. hiring in 2023​

"Make no mistake. The U.S. labor market is historically strong. Good workers are hard to find and companies have to pay more to attract and keep them. The unemployment rate sits at a very low 3.7%"

You get way too caught up in the conspiracies.
 
Wonder if Cathie Wood’s ARKK has bought MSFT yet. But at a PE of only 37 I doubt it is even on her radar.
AI is real…and it is spectacular.
 
It will be interesting to see the first wave of bank earnings tomorrow! Probably going to be a mixed bag.
I don't think it will be good overall.

the Fed charged all tier 1 banks 1-2 billion in charges for the bank failures and most don't know this. In addition, most have charges for lay offs, increased reserves, and other reg exependitures no one is talking about. Will be interesting to see as I think Chase is best positioned for this. I expect Citi and Wells to bring this segment down
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
"Make no mistake. The U.S. labor market is historically strong. Good workers are hard to find and companies have to pay more to attract and keep them. The unemployment rate sits at a very low 3.7%"

You get way too caught up in the conspiracies.

I know - Ukraine is winning, the border is secure, the vaxx is safe, inflation is temporary!
Lets enjoy the virtual reality while its an election year.
Crushing jobs for the virus made for a hiring bounce (now disability among workers also high)



Shhhhh...
qQF5xJd.jpg
 
I know - Ukraine is winning, the border is secure, the vaxx is safe, inflation is temporary!
Lets enjoy the virtual reality while its an election year.
Crushing jobs for the virus made for a hiring bounce (now disability among workers also high)



Shhhhh...
qQF5xJd.jpg
In your typical scatter brain style you bring Ukraine, the border and vaccines into this thread.

But again.

"Make no mistake. The U.S. labor market is historically strong. Good workers are hard to find and companies have to pay more to attract and keep them. The unemployment rate sits at a very low 3.7%."

I expected somewhere in that article there would be something about part time jobs and people trying to make ends meet, but instead it was companies not responding to surveys.
 
  • Like
Reactions: redking
Shelter up another 0.5% MoM. Keep waiting for the negative YoY shelter inflation that T2K promised.
Everything perfectly on schedule. As I posted on Aug 17:

CPI CORE YoY Projections
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9% <<< We are here
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%

@RU-05 , @Postman_1 - Special shout-out to Tom Lee and the FS Insights analysis team. They sent out this CPI Core YoY forecast last summer (Aug 14 to be exact) and 5 months later they are still dead on balls accurate! Just an amazing research group.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05 and Postman_1
ETF day! Not that I'm buying, just watching the candle go up. from 47250 at 9am to almost 49k at 945am.
Happy ETF Day! Just checked on Fidelity. Their FBTC is trading at $42.15 with a volume of 8 million in the first hour. I will likely use this ETF in the future for my rollover IRA and other tax-deferred accounts. However, it won't impact my regular Fidelity Crypto buying. Just something extra to play with!

FYI - Blackrock's IBIT has about 20 million in volume.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Happy ETF Day! Just checked on Fidelity. Their FBTC is trading at $42.15 with a volume of 8 million in the first hour. I will likely use this ETF in the future for my rollover IRA and other tax-deferred accounts. However, it won't impact my regular Fidelity Crypto buying. Just something extra to play with!

FYI - Blackrock's IBIT has about 20 million in volume.
Thanks I came here looking to see what these ETF’s were trading under.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Happy ETF Day! Just checked on Fidelity. Their FBTC is trading at $42.15 with a volume of 8 million in the first hour. I will likely use this ETF in the future for my rollover IRA and other tax-deferred accounts. However, it won't impact my regular Fidelity Crypto buying. Just something extra to play with!

FYI - Blackrock's IBIT has about 20 million in volume.
FBTC was very volatile early on with a high over $50; trades in that range are down about 16%. Bitcoin has dropped about 6% since ETF trading began, the rest of the decline must be due to inefficient pricing due to a mismatch of buyers and sellers.
 
Last edited:
FBTC was very volatile early on with a high over $50; trades in that range are down about 16%. Bitcoin has dropped about 6% since ETF trading began, the rest of the decline must be due to inefficient pricing due to a mismatch of buyers and sellers.
Gotta assume it will take a few days, at least, for the dust to settle. Miners are dumping, which is to be expected since some of this ETF money is likely flowing from other indirect BTC plays.
 
Started a position in FBTC. Got in at 41.69. Will add.

Got out of my GBTC a couple weeks ago. Was up 80% but left some upside on the table.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Started a position in FBTC. Got in at 41.69. Will add.

Got out of my GBTC a couple weeks ago. Was up 80% but left some upside on the table.
Since GBTC fees are still sky high at 1.5%, I have to assume outflows will be constant as people move to less expensive options. Really weird decision by Grayscale.

Speaking of options, who will get options first? FBTC or IBIT? :)
 
Started a position in FBTC. Got in at 41.69. Will add.

Got out of my GBTC a couple weeks ago. Was up 80% but left some upside on the table.
Decided to kick the tires with FBTC and bought a little at $40.85. Using my Fidelity rollover IRA, so I can get in and out without tax consequences. I wouldn't mind having 2% or so of this account with a BTC spot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Longtime VG client. You can buy nearly everything. Not inverse ETFs, though. So a "no crypto" policy is in understandable, per their historical "discretion."
They sound like a bunch of sissies! :)

FYI - WOLF back down to $35. I missed the last dip. Watching it closely.
 
I posted this on the bitcoin thread but since there is a discussion of it here, I copied it:

Right now GBTC is trading at a slight discount to NAV. The new ETFs are all trading at some level of premium to NAV but all have lower fees than Grayscale (1.5% fee lowered from their original 2%). The decision to make at this point in time is whether to pay the premium for the lower fees (FBTC 0% fee) vs waiting for the premium to be closer to par or at a discount before switching from GBTC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
I posted this on the bitcoin thread but since there is a discussion of it here, I copied it:

Right now GBTC is trading at a slight discount to NAV. The new ETFs are all trading at some level of premium to NAV but all have lower fees than Grayscale (1.5% fee lowered from their original 2%). The decision to make at this point in time is whether to pay the premium for the lower fees (FBTC 0% fee) vs waiting for the premium to be closer to par or at a discount before switching from GBTC.
How are you doing on GBTC? In the green yet? FBTC seems like a great alternative (along with IBIT). No fees until August and then only 0.25%.
 
They sound like a bunch of sissies! :)

FYI - WOLF back down to $35. I missed the last dip. Watching it closely.
Boglehead's get rich slowly, surely, and stay there. Supplement with a goodly accumulation of Berkshire.

As for WOLF, I've last sold around 46. I believe they'll linger a bit, a victim of a tepid market. But long-term, I'm a believer in the technology and the prospects.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT