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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

RU-05 said:
Doesn't seem like a move someone trying to sell ESPN makes.

And I hear a lot of people saying "AAPL should buy ESPN" because of how it will jumpstart their streaming business.

But why wouldn't Disney just keep it to enable the next phase of their streaming business?

And I do understand that ESPN is losing value as cord cutting becomes more and more of a reality, but "imagine if AMZN bought it" doesn't jive with "Disney needs to unload this anchor".
Click to expand...
I never expected DIS to sell it outright. It's still a commodity that has value and as you see with the NFL, not everyone wants to run their own network. Better off leaving it to the media companies who can and have the know how.

I think it's a good move that strengthens the connection between ESPN and the most valuable media rights property. ESPN would have a strong bond with a property that has fairly inelastic demand (see Peacock playoff streaming numbers) and now has a stake it seeing it do well and ESPN probably should get some benefits from that fact.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
I never expected DIS to sell it outright. It's still a commodity that has value and as you see with the NFL, not everyone wants to run their own network. Better off leaving it to the media companies who can and have the know how.

I think it's a good move that strengthens the connection between ESPN and the most valuable media rights property. ESPN would have a strong bond with a property that has fairly inelastic demand (see Peacock playoff streaming numbers) and now has a stake it seeing it do well and ESPN probably should get some benefits from that fact.
Click to expand...
Probably sounds like the best course of action for DIS and ESPN.
 
RUDead said:
I never heard of the guy. I just looked at some of the other articles and could see the site was a grift for gullible war mongers. I didn't watch the Bannon video because he is also a warmongering grifter.

Russia is beating NATO militarily, politically and financially. It's been this way for over a year. Even the MSM media is starting to admit it. You need new sources.

I don't know what you are talking about with MSFT.
Click to expand...
Russia is getting beat like a cheap drum. Ukraine is structurally very similar to Russia militarily which is why they have struggled with their offensive operations, but the attrition war is just gutting Russian materiel.

I don’t believe Putin will be ousted or that Russia collapses from within, but eventually within the next 24 months Russia is either going to call uncle and sue for peace or do something moronic to sharply escalate in a last gasp attempt to force a deal favorable to them.

Outside of bleeding specific caliber artillery stocks NATO is as strong as it has ever been post-USSR.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Own AMD as part of the FS Insights stock list! Top holding as of now. Any news to cause the rally?
Click to expand...

AMD announced some of their new Ryzen 8000 processors.
The new processors mostly use older processing cores but they will have the AI chip built-in
The first processors will be for mobile.
This sort of stuff will appeal to jargon prone tech muggles.
There is also the integrative aspects between AI chips and new Windows 12 coming out.
So some broad market forces are at work.

Hype aside, the new Ryzens will be weaker at basics since the AI will suck power and PCI lane capacity.
The AI chip is basically a dedicated chip working more independent of CPU functions.
It will survey and "process" data that it collects to basically profile a user and activities.
Supposedly that will "enhance" a user's capacities and experience.

The chips are NPUs (Neural Processing Units) optimized for data collection and inferencing (probabilities).
A gamer can have a little AI gizmo telling him were enemies are lurking in his game.
Not exactly talking dramatic improvements here.
Experienced builders don't (on the whole) want this stuff.

There will be money suck into the hype-hole and then the post-orgasm reality will emerge
That's the usual tech hardware dynamic.
The difference is Windows AI hype (with Co-pilot which is really just spying and profiling).
AI is more about government than gaming (wait until IRS starts billing people based on AI profiles)
No surprise Huwaii was first to push NPUs into phones
The AI push is firing-up the Linux scene (and older hardware).
I don't follow the daily market churn but IBD and some others aren't high on AMD at the mo.

www.investors.com

Is AMD Stock A Buy After Chipmaker's AI Product Launch?

AMD stock has risen on expectations for continued market share gains in processors for PCs and servers. But is AMD stock a buy right now?
www.investors.com www.investors.com

www.tomshardware.com

AMD launches Ryzen 8000G ‘Phoenix’ APUs, brings AI to the desktop PC — reveals Zen 4c clocks for the first time

RDNA 3 delivers bang for your buck.
www.tomshardware.com www.tomshardware.com

Linus on AI frils
 
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Joey Bags said:
Russia is getting beat like a cheap drum. Ukraine is structurally very similar to Russia militarily which is why they have struggled with their offensive operations, but the attrition war is just gutting Russian materiel.
Click to expand...

That's not even close to reality.
Ukraine cant even find more "soldiers" and have resorted to press gangs for teens and senior citizens.
A kid delivering a pizza could end-up dead in a trench.

Russia is superior for its integrated weapons and celestial surveillance/targeting.
Ukrainian vehicles stuck in a minefield cant back-up - more mines get dropped behind vehicles.
Ukraine cant even operate and maintain US vehicles (most shot-up already)
Russia pulverizes Ukrainian positions and then moves on (they dont care about territory per se).
Then Ukraine goes back to areas left by Russia and US media reports it as "a successful counter-offensive".

Mearsheimer correctly blames US and EU for causing the war via encroachment.
He also predicted US would lead Ukraine along primrose path and leave it behind as another broken mess (see Iraq, Libya, A-stan). Truth is Russia went easier on Ukraine that it might have (spared Kiev).
Media says Russian citizens unhappy with war and they are right - but because Ukraine not hit harder and finished off. They supported the war and Putin.

This is not winning - the men are gone:

"Ukraine’s Front-Line Troops Are Getting Older: ‘Physically, I Can’t Handle This’
Corruption and fear are hindering effort to rebuild army"

Ukraine cracks down on draft-dodging as it struggles to find troops

Mearsheimer Wont End Well


Now - after wrecking Afghanistan on purpose, and killing-off Ukraine, US is meddling in ME with more than a few saying DC kooks want a war with Iran - who has stepped-up uranium enrichment while flipping regulators the bird. Of course Israel will ballistic at some point. We are playing with fire (I dont think the kooks even mind losing). 2024 is probably a year from hell

www.aljazeera.com

Iran advances nuclear enrichment while still barring inspectors: IAEA

Watchdog says stonewalling of inspectors ‘extreme and unjustified’ as stockpile reaches 22 times the nuclear deal limit.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
RUDeac said:
JFC what happened to there Chinese stocks
Click to expand...
JFC why would anyone be buying Chinese stocks now? China’s economy is a basket case. Full disclosure….I do have a little bit of exposure through one retirement fund account.
 
Joey Bags said:
Russia is getting beat like a cheap drum. Ukraine is structurally very similar to Russia militarily which is why they have struggled with their offensive operations, but the attrition war is just gutting Russian materiel.

I don’t believe Putin will be ousted or that Russia collapses from within, but eventually within the next 24 months Russia is either going to call uncle and sue for peace or do something moronic to sharply escalate in a last gasp attempt to force a deal favorable to them.

Outside of bleeding specific caliber artillery stocks NATO is as strong as it has ever been post-USSR.
Click to expand...
got this bridge, it's real nice and big and I'll give it you for a song and a dance
 
ashokan said:
That's not even close to reality.
Ukraine cant even find more "soldiers" and have resorted to press gangs for teens and senior citizens.
A kid delivering a pizza could end-up dead in a trench.

Russia is superior for its integrated weapons and celestial surveillance/targeting.
Ukrainian vehicles stuck in a minefield cant back-up - more mines get dropped behind vehicles.
Ukraine cant even operate and maintain US vehicles (most shot-up already)
Russia pulverizes Ukrainian positions and then moves on (they dont care about territory per se).
Then Ukraine goes back to areas left by Russia and US media reports it as "a successful counter-offensive".

Mearsheimer correctly blames US and EU for causing the war via encroachment.
He also predicted US would lead Ukraine along primrose path and leave it behind as another broken mess (see Iraq, Libya, A-stan). Truth is Russia went easier on Ukraine that it might have (spared Kiev).
Media says Russian citizens unhappy with war and they are right - but because Ukraine not hit harder and finished off. They supported the war and Putin.

This is not winning - the men are gone:

"Ukraine’s Front-Line Troops Are Getting Older: ‘Physically, I Can’t Handle This’
Corruption and fear are hindering effort to rebuild army"

Ukraine cracks down on draft-dodging as it struggles to find troops

Mearsheimer Wont End Well
View embedded media


Now - after wrecking Afghanistan on purpose, and killing-off Ukraine, US is meddling in ME with more than a few saying DC kooks want a war with Iran - who has stepped-up uranium enrichment while flipping regulators the bird. Of course Israel will ballistic at some point. We are playing with fire (I dont think the kooks even mind losing). 2024 is probably a year from hell

www.aljazeera.com

Iran advances nuclear enrichment while still barring inspectors: IAEA

Watchdog says stonewalling of inspectors ‘extreme and unjustified’ as stockpile reaches 22 times the nuclear deal limit.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
Click to expand...
all true and more
the iran issue is more serious however, oblunder and biden really fking this one up
 
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well the FED is going to need to decide if they want to hard land this or go after credit.
 
Jamie Dimon sounds the way a guy sitting on 70 trillion in derivatives should - admits not even sure how quantitative easing even works (no surprise here).

"I think it's a mistake to assume that everything is hunky-dory," he said. "When stock markets are up, it's kind of like this little drug we all feel, like it's just great...You have all these very powerful forces that are going to be affecting us in '24 and '25," Dimon said. "If I was the government, I would be preparing what I'm going to do about that assuming things aren't good....Ukraine, the terrorist activity in Israel [and] the Red Sea, quantitative tightening, which I still question if we understand exactly how that works,"


I'm sure Dimon isn't alone judging by how many billionaires are investing in arable land and building bunkers (like Zuckerberg in Hawaii). They know a clock is ticking
 
RUTGERS95 said:
all true and more
the iran issue is more serious however, oblunder and biden really fking this one up
Click to expand...

I feel bad about Iran because a lot of the average people are pretty cool but we abandoned them 15 yrs ago. The Iran/Iraq war decimated the male population so Iran population skews pretty young. Before Obama the people had a 75% positive feeling about America (they hated Carter though).

Then millions took to the streets in the Green Revolution (protesting stolen election in 2009) and the regime made a vicious crackdown. There videos of people crying/praying in the night and they wanted at least some acknowledgment from US leaders but they sided with regime. For years experts said they wanted to see a moderate Islamic uprising and they got one in 2009 but it was ignored.

Now I'm not a person to go through a lot of market charts and terminology - I don't tell people how to invest or not. I like to follow broad trends.. I studied European mode of historical analysis (Annales) and the historical event to watch out fore is the "conjuncture." We are in one now,

A conjuncture is when long term trends - often in the background - suddenly compound and come to the foreground and grab populations/institutions by the throat. Some trends are a few hundred years long and then boom.

A key feature of the west has been acceleration of dynamics. The rise of banking and credit really turbo- charged economies which helped build armies and alliances and industry etc. Right now the credit dynamic is up against a wall. Countries are saturated with debt and are more reluctant to borrow/lend. US struggles with lenders so it becomes its own buyer of debt which like being out of freshwater and drinking saltwater.

So with all the economic decay, serious social and economic trends are opportunistic and coming to the foreground. ME has long been a tinderbox but now its cracking-up with formerly weak nations loaded-up with tech and weapons that the US can really handle as easy as in the past. Leaders are misjudging so many things.

Egypt, Jordan and even Syria have been sociable with Israel but right now many of the people want to go to war with Israel. ME nations could overthrow their governments. Not long ago US loons put Muslim Brothers in charge of Egypt and that more radical element is still there and its heating up.

The ME is a house full of gas leaks and US team is throwing matches and liking it. Some US representatives use maps without Israel on it. The "two state" solution is a unicorn and millions of Muslims want Israel over. Israel knows this and its not going to sit back and get annihilated. The mother of all pre-emptive strikes is on the table. War games show that when threatened with nukes countries cant afford to take things " a step at a time" and things escalate quickly.

For me, I see a lot of hideous snowballs coming down the hill and they are getting bigger and faster. Some of these snowballs are 100s of years in the making, I cant see how they can be stopped without people waking-up and getting over the petty arguments taking up all the oxygen in the room. Things like gender dysphoria, legalized shoplifitng, no police, secretaries made into pilots etc are intentionally seeded to sow confusion and chaos - they aren't natural. We find bio-weapon labs in warehouses in CA and it barely makes the news.

In any case, people can do their investing but many people know something is wrong and US didn't win history forever in 1945. Some think things could work out for the better eventually but we have to go through hell first and I dont know if people can handle upheavals. But when people see them coming the chances of handling them get much better just via attitude shift . Nukes, canal shutdowns, market collapses etc are minor things


Poor Iranians in the Night
 
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RU-05 said:
I’ve got SMCI up 30% today on pre earnings guidance.

Also got rid of some garbage. Finally started a position in FOUR. Watching FTNT.
Click to expand...
Tom Lee and FS Insights announced a new small/mid-cap stock list on Tuesday. SMCI was 1 of the top 5 plays. Everyone should be a freaking member.
 
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So, after a bunch of analysis and IR materials review, I finally created my custom small-cap/clinical stage Biotech basket. These are small plays that I believe have a better than average chance to successfully bring new and innovative therapies to market (or prove they work). Not for the faint of heart due to capital raises, dilution, and the risks of drug development. However, if even a few of these hit, the reward would be significant:

NTLA = Intellia Therapeutics (already mentioned)
CLRB = Cellectar Biosciences (already mentioned)
VYGR = Voyager Therapeutics
PRME = Prime Medicines
VTGN = Vistagen Therapeutics
COYA = Coya Therapeutics
CRBU = Caribou Biosciences

Happy to chat more about any of these, if interested.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
So, after a bunch of analysis and IR materials review, I finally created my custom small-cap/clinical stage Biotech basket. These are small plays that I believe have a better than average chance to successfully bring new and innovative therapies to market (or prove they work). Not for the faint of heart due to capital raises, dilution, and the risks of drug development. However, if even a few of these hit, the reward would be significant:

NTLA = Intellia Therapeutics (already mentioned)
CLRB = Cellectar Biosciences (already mentioned)
VYGR = Voyager Therapeutics
PRME = Prime Medicines
VTGN = Vistagen Therapeutics
COYA = Coya Therapeutics
CRBU = Caribou Biosciences

Happy to chat more about any of these, if interested.
Click to expand...
How do you weight the holdings? Based on market cap or just same amount for each holding?
 
gmay8 said:
How do you weight the holdings? Based on market cap or just same amount for each holding?
Click to expand...
I started with equal weight to get some skin in the game with all 7 stocks. I already owned 2, but as of right now, everything is equal. I will add in the future when the prices look attractive (not hard since biotech was hit hard over the past 2 years).

I will likely end up with more NTLA than the others since I think it is the "safest bet". The middle range for me is CLRB, VYGR, PRME, and CRBU. Most risky are VTGN and COYA. So perhaps I will end up:

NTLA = 20%
CLRB, VYGR, PRME, CRBU = 15% each
VTGN and COYA = 10% each
 
T2Kplus20 said:
I started with equal weight to get some skin in the game with all 7 stocks. I already owned 2, but as of right now, everything is equal. I will add in the future when the prices look attractive (not hard since biotech was hit hard over the past 2 years).

I will likely end up with more NTLA than the others since I think it is the "safest bet". The middle range for me is CLRB, VYGR, PRME, and CRBU. Most risky are VTGN and COYA. So perhaps I will end up:

NTLA = 20%
CLRB, VYGR, PRME, CRBU = 15% each
VTGN and COYA = 10% each
Click to expand...
No BLUE?
 
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rurahrah000 said:
No BLUE?
Click to expand...
Nope! BLUE's future looks grim. They are appealing the FDA's decision to not issue a new PRV, but rough roads ahead. I was up almost 100%, but got lucky to get out with 15-20% after the news broke. LOL! Biotech is what it is.

No CRSP either. At their $5B market cap, the horse is already out of the barn. I also believe a few other companies have more advanced gene editing platforms (like Intellia).
 
T2Kplus20 said:
Nope! BLUE's future looks grim. They are appealing the FDA's decision to not issue a new PRV, but rough roads ahead. I was up almost 100%, but got lucky to get out with 15-20% after the news broke. LOL! Biotech is what it is.

No CRSP either. At their $5B market cap, the horse is already out of the barn. I also believe a few other companies have more advanced gene editing platforms (like Intellia).
Click to expand...
Agree that BLUE is in trouble. Terrible management as is the case with most of these companies that seemingly are on discount (just like another favorite of this board - MULN).

CRSP is much more interesting and has been consolidating between $60-65 and didn't drop significantly with the positive news of approval. It is in much good financial position.
 
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rurahrah000 said:
Agree that BLUE is in trouble. Terrible management as is the case with most of these companies that seemingly are on discount (just like another favorite of this board - MULN).

CRSP is much more interesting and has been consolidating between $60-65 and didn't drop significantly with the positive news of approval. It is in much good financial position.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. I would buy CRSP on a pullback, but it's definitely crossed the line into legit commercialized company, so not in my small biotech basket. Perfect partner in Vertex!

BLUE had a bunch of opportunities to partner, but they thought they could do everything themselves. Wrong! Their biggest mistake was to build out their EU operation too early and prior to reimbursement approval. Getting EMA approved is the first step, but essentially meaningless unless you negotiate contracts with each nation. They were only offered net pricing below COGS, so their EU business fell apart. 150 employees gone and they burned through most of their cash.

If it wasn't for the 2 FDA approvals and PRVs in late 2022, they would have gone bankrupt already.
 
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