OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[rutgersdave]

Tesla getting creamed...

Time for me to slowly get in. Just got some at 186. Worse case scenario 170.

Time to buy UNH hit my limit order at 485 and more at 482, only a matter of time when it hit 550 again.

Wow, my IBM doing great even though I just brought it 2 days ago.

 

[T2Kplus20]

4TH quarter GDP at 3.3%

This mystical recession bears have been predicting for the past 18 months just isn't happening. The actual recession was back in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. It's over (until the next cycle).

 

[RUAldo]

T2K: My son is part of an investing club in high school and he’s hell-bent on finding a grand slam in biotech/pharma. I hate the sector because it’s only caused me pain and to lose money. I don’t know where he’s getting the names from, but do you know anything about:

Oramed - ORMD
Corbus - CRBP
Aytu Biopharma - AYTU

 

[T2Kplus20]

Time for me to slowly get in. Just got some at 186. Worse case scenario 170.

Time to buy UNH hit my limit order at 485 and more at 482, only a matter of time when it hit 550 again.

Wow, my IBM doing great even though I just brought it 2 days ago.

As I mentioned before, one of the best technical analysts in the business is citing a TSLA bottom at $180'ish. Now, we all need to keep in mind that TSLA is a textbook sentiment stock, which means, technicals and fundamentals are less important than normal. Does it go lower? Maybe. Lots of headwinds in the EV space right now.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Time for me to slowly get in. Just got some at 186. Worse case scenario 170.

Time to buy UNH hit my limit order at 485 and more at 482, only a matter of time when it hit 550 again.

Wow, my IBM doing great even though I just brought it 2 days ago.

I'm guessing UNH is down in sympathy with the HUM earnings.

I think mid 400s is a better entry point myself.

 

[rutgersguy1]

As I mentioned before, one of the best technical analysts in the business is citing a TSLA bottom at $180'ish. Now, we all need to keep in mind that TSLA is a textbook sentiment stock, which means, technicals and fundamentals are less important than normal. Does it go lower? Maybe. Lots of headwinds in the EV space right now.

Technical analyst? WTF. Who follows that voodoo and witchcraft lol.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Technical analyst? WTF. Who follows that voodoo and witchcraft lol.

It is complete voodoo and witchcraft. No economic rationale at all. However, a wise investor once said:

"TA works because other people think it works and that's all that matters"

So, I keep an eye on it (mostly MA and RSI). Based on my experience in order of importance:

1. Sentiment
2. Technicals
3. Fundamentals

 

[rutgersguy1]

It is complete voodoo and witchcraft. No economic rationale at all. However, a wise investor once said:

"TA works because other people think it works and that's all that matters"

So, I keep an eye on it (mostly MA and RSI). Based on my experience in order of importance:

1. Sentiment
2. Technicals
3. Fundamentals

So you've come over to the dark side lol.

It is useful because it can be a graphical representation of mood/sentiment/psychology etc..

When I first started trading etc..it was at least somewhat seen as mumbo jumbo/voodoo but now it's ubiquitous in its use and pretty much normal.

Fundamentals are obviously important too but you use any and all tools you have to decide whether something might be a good investment/trade or not and more specifically what might be good entry and exit points for it.

 

[T2Kplus20]

T2K: My son is part of an investing club in high school and he’s hell-bent on finding a grand slam in biotech/pharma. I hate the sector because it’s only caused me pain and to lose money. I don’t know where he’s getting the names from, but do you know anything about:

Oramed - ORMD
Corbus - CRBP
Aytu Biopharma - AYTU

I don't know much about those 3 other than name and area of focus, so I will check them out and reply later today. In the meanwhile, here are the 7 I am currently invested in. Biotech is wild. Highly unpredictable even for the best sector analysts in the world. Nothing is certain, so I highly recommend creating a small basket of companies (at least 5-10).

These are the current companies that I believe have a "better than average" chance at being successful.

NTLA = Intellia Therapeutics
CLRB = Cellectar Biosciences
VYGR = Voyager Therapeutics
PRME = Prime Medicines
VTGN = Vistagen Therapeutics
COYA = Coya Therapeutics
CRBU = Caribou Biosciences

 

[rutgersguy1]

Time for me to slowly get in. Just got some at 186. Worse case scenario 170.

Time to buy UNH hit my limit order at 485 and more at 482, only a matter of time when it hit 550 again.

Wow, my IBM doing great even though I just brought it 2 days ago.

BTW also notice BDX is also around the lower end of its trading range.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So you've come over to the dark side lol.

It is useful because it can be a graphical representation of mood/sentiment/psychology etc..

When I first started trading etc..it was at least somewhat seen as mumbo jumbo/voodoo but now it's ubiquitous in its use and pretty much normal.

Fundamentals are obviously important too but you use any and all tools you have to decide whether something might be a good investment/trade or not and more specifically what might be good entry and exit points for it.

Yes, I have begrudgingly accepted the usefulness of TA. LOL! Please blame Tom Lee and Mark Newton from FS Insights/Fundstrat.

Believe it or not, I recently was successful on my first ever "TA" trade! I bought short-term AAPL calls when it recently dropped to the low $180s. The RSI turned to oversold (28'ish). It quickly bounced and I made about 50%. Small play, but a good learning experience.

 

[T2Kplus20]

@rurahrah000 - More info on BLUE. Not as bad as I thought on 2024 patients treated guidance. However, I'm not sure what their GTN will be to calculate net sales. Still interesting:

Bluebird’s financial picture was hurt when the approval did not include a priority review voucher, which it had planned to sell for to Novartis AG for $103m. (Also see "Bluebird’s Lost Voucher: Lyfgenia Contains Same ‘Active Ingredient’ As Zynteglo, US FDA Says" - Pink Sheet, 14 Dec, 2023.)

However, president and CEO Andrew Obenshain noted in his J.P. Morgan presentation that bluebird’s three approved products and its $275m in cash as of 31 December plus additional non-dilutive financing options that the company is pursuing should build a bridge to profitability.

Bluebird anticipates starting the treatment process for 85-105 patients in 2024 with its three gene therapies – Lyfgenia, Zynteglo and Skysona (elivaldogene autotemcel) for the ultra-rare disease cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (CALD) – which Obenshain said represents about $300m in gross revenue. The three products have a combined addressable population in the US of 22,000 patients, including 20,000 with sickle cell disease who have recurrent vaso-occlusive events (VOEs) and 1,500 with transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

“Our market research has consistently shown that about 70% of sickle cell patients would consider a gene therapy if it was offered by their physicians,” Obenshain said. “And, importantly, 80% of providers want Lyfgenia and its competitor to be available at their institutions, so this is likely to be widely available across the US.”

 

[rutgersguy1]

I don't know much about those 3 other than name and area of focus, so I will check them out and reply later today. In the meanwhile, here are the 7 I am currently invested in. Biotech is wild. Highly unpredictable even for the best sector analysts in the world. Nothing is certain, so I highly recommend creating a small basket of companies (at least 5-10).

These are the current companies that I believe have a "better than average" chance at being successful.

NTLA = Intellia Therapeutics
CLRB = Cellectar Biosciences
VYGR = Voyager Therapeutics
PRME = Prime Medicines
VTGN = Vistagen Therapeutics
COYA = Coya Therapeutics
CRBU = Caribou Biosciences

I'm a conservative investor/trader by nature so I generally stick with large cap/mega cap stock and it's no different for the biotech/pharma sector.

IMO microcap and small cap investing in biotech is akin to buying lotto tickets. Unless you have inside info or are an insider it's such a crap shoot to know if the drug they're working on hits big or not and if they have a chance of being swallowed by a larger player. Every clinical trial and phase is a crapshoot to the outsider, how can you know without a pipeline (pun intended) to the info.

I do agree with your methodology of a basket though if you're inclined to take the shot. Spread the risk and hopefully one of the lotto tickets hits and makes up and then some for all the misses with the others.

 

[rutgersdave]

I'm guessing UNH is down in sympathy with the HUM earnings.

I think mid 400s is a better entry point myself.

I don’t know where the bottom is but yes 450 is pretty much the lowest this stock goes down to but I know I make money at 485 and will buy more at 460 and 450. You want it to go 100 points from the high?

 

[rutgersdave]

BTW also notice BDX is also around the lower end of its trading range.

Yes, I have about 300 shares close to the current price. I ‘m a buy and hold until I make a profit. However, it’s been in this range for a longer period than I like.

 

[rutgersdave]

So you've come over to the dark side lol.

It is useful because it can be a graphical representation of mood/sentiment/psychology etc..

When I first started trading etc..it was at least somewhat seen as mumbo jumbo/voodoo but now it's ubiquitous in its use and pretty much normal.

Fundamentals are obviously important too but you use any and all tools you have to decide whether something might be a good investment/trade or not and more specifically what might be good entry and exit points for it.

Well, if you buy solely on fundamentals, you would never buy stocks because they never go that low.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'm a conservative investor/trader by nature so I generally stick with large cap/mega cap stock and it's no different for the biotech/pharma sector.

IMO microcap and small cap investing in biotech is akin to buying lotto tickets. Unless you have inside info or are an insider it's such a crap shoot to know if the drug they're working on hits big or not and if they have a chance of being swallowed by a larger player. Every clinical trial and phase is a crapshoot to the outsider, how can you know without a pipeline (pun intended) to the info.

I do agree with your methodology of a basket though if you're inclined to take the shot. Spread the risk and hopefully one of the lotto tickets hits and makes up and then some for all the misses with the others.

Fidelity is a great platform since you can do custom baskets/etfs. I have 7 stocks in my Small Cap Biotech Basket and would like to add a few more over time. I've been in the industry for over 20 years so I am painfully aware of the unpredictability of drug development and regulatory approval.

With that said, the drug development process is not a one step event. There are multiple trials from pre-clinical to pivotal. Watching the data and understanding when programs get derisked is very important. Understanding the science and knowing who is financing these companies are also critical.

So what is my goal? I just think I can do a better job than the XBI. That's all. If I can hit on 1 or 2 of those 7 companies, my returns will be significantly better. We shall see! And yes, I am using fun money and a pretty small amount. LOL!

 

[T2Kplus20]

Well, if you buy solely on fundamentals, you would never buy stocks because they never go that low.

^^^^^ This is very true.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Speaking of pharma, PFE was brought up a few weeks ago. Mentioned how I think it's a dog in general IMO but anything is potentially tradeable and was just around a key longer term moving average. It's way oversold but it did end up closing below that moving average and it's still below it now. Something can be way oversold but it can also stay that way longer than you think.

BMY seems to be another one that's just about as bad as PFE on the charts. Down about 40% over the last year. Many consecutive months of red candles in there. It's also around the 200MMA but it's holding for now. PE doesn't look too expensive and dividend looks good but not sure what they might have in the pipeline for growth. I would've thought the Celgene acquisition from some years ago would have paid some dividends on the drug pipeline.

 

[RUAldo]

IMO microcap and small cap investing in biotech is akin to buying lotto tickets.

Yeah that’s probably why my son is all interested in them - heard too many windfall stories.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Speaking of pharma, PFE was brought up a few weeks ago. Mentioned how I think it's a dog in general IMO but anything is potentially tradeable and was just around a key longer term moving average. It's way oversold but it did end up closing below that moving average and it's still below it now. Something can be way oversold but it can also stay that way longer than you think.

BMY seems to be another one that's just about as bad as PFE on the charts. Down about 40% over the last year. Many consecutive months of red candles in there. It's also around the 200MMA but it's holding for now. PE doesn't look too expensive and dividend looks good but not sure what they might have in the pipeline for growth. I would've thought the Celgene acquisition from some years ago would have paid some dividends on the drug pipeline.

Both PFE and BMY have good pipelines, but it is so hard to turn around these monster pharma companies. It's not just about what is coming online with possible approvals, but also what are you losing via patent expirations. There is a constant hole in the bottom of the bucket to deal with.

I actually know the new BMY CEO and have confidence he will do a great job. However, both companies are losing Eliquis in 2026 which is going to be rough (but likely baked into market expectations). Personally, I believe BMY starts moving in the right direction prior to PFE.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Both PFE and BMY have good pipelines, but it is so hard to turn around these monster pharma companies. It's not just about what is coming online with possible approvals, but also what are you losing via patent expirations. There is a constant hole in the bottom of the bucket to deal with.

I actually know the new BMY CEO and have confidence he will do a great job. However, both companies are losing Eliquis in 2026 which is going to be rough (but likely baked into market expectations). Personally, I believe BMY starts moving in the right direction prior to PFE.

I like BMY over PFE. I’ve mentioned here PFE is a hard cruise ship to turn. I didn’t feel that way as much about BMY but I didn’t realize the Elliquis patent cliff coming up. They’re currently dealing with Revlimid coming off patent.

I thought BMY could be a turnaround play but wondering if I’m misjudging it. It’s is oversold though so it’s always possible for a bounce but don't know if it would be anything beyond that.

I remember their Plavix situation from awhile back so wouldn’t want to be in it if it had a repeat. I read they have 3 new drugs they’re banking on for growth but the company might not have reached a trough yet.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Yeah that’s probably why my son is all interested in them - heard too many windfall stories.

Sure everyone young or old gets big eyes when they see the big gains…just look at crypto or dot com boom or memes or what have you.

Booms are always fun but you can’t neglect the bust side of the equation if you’re using real money lol. If you’re lucky maybe your lotto ticket hits but it’s not a sound consistent strategy overall.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sure everyone young or old gets big eyes when they see the big gains…just look at crypto or dot com boom or memes or what have you.

Booms are always fun but you can’t neglect the bust side of the equation if you’re using real money lol. If you’re lucky maybe your lotto ticket hits but it’s not a sound consistent strategy overall.

Ironically, younger people don't need to take such risks since they have so much time to invest and compound! The people that need to take risks are older people that didn't save enough.

 

[T2Kplus20]

PCE Core (the Feds preferred inflation measure) continues to plummet:

YoY: 2.9%
6m annualized: 1.9%
3m annualized: 1.5%

Rate cuts to start soon to maintain real rates. Perhaps May?

 

[bob-loblaw]

FWIW, I sold all my RIVN around $20 because I felt like EV sentiment is in a downward spiral. Nobody is bitching about oil/gas prices at the moment. Lots of negative press around EV infrastructure and batteries. Auto manufacturers are trying to give them away with limited success. I’m pretty sure this is why Volvo keeps delaying the XC90 EV. There needs to be a fresh EV catalyst to turn around the market. With that said I’m a big fan of RIVN trucks and do think it’s a long term winner.

Add a potential Trump sequel as a reason to be bearish short term on the EV market.
Ford has basically all but admitted to their dealers in internal comms that they ****ed up with the EV push.

If Trump wins, the bottom will probably fall out on EV's and it'll be time to pounce. The reason being, I could very easily see him opening up rare earth mining domestically, which will do wonderful things for that market.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Add a potential Trump sequel as a reason to be bearish short term on the EV market.
Ford has basically all but admitted to their dealers in internal comms that they ****ed up with the EV push.

If Trump wins, the bottom will probably fall out on EV's and it'll be time to pounce. The reason being, I could very easily see him opening up rare earth mining domestically, which will do wonderful things for that market.

Very good point. This election will create winners and losers in the market.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Awesome episode, learned a lot about some well-known economic indicators:

 

[RUAldo]

Very good point. This election will create winners and losers in the market.

Agree - EV stocks become far too risky until we get a true sense of the election outcome. Subsidies and hype carried the EV market in the past. The gov’ts entire approach to the EV market is/was moronic as it’s the complete opposite of the notion “if you build it they will come”. Imagine what would have happened if Shoeless Joe showed up to an unplowed cornfield. Perhaps a better approach would have been to make the charging infrastructure companies rich instead of Elon and Tesla hodlers. Goes to show you how stupid the people that run this country really are.

 

[Postman_1]

Lots of big earnings this week.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/big-tech-titans-apple-microsoft-top-huge-earnings-week-on-wall-street

 

[T2Kplus20]

Makes a very good point:

Inflation is down and the Fed didn’t do it

The belief that “it’s all about the Fed” ignores reality. Exaggerating the Fed role in fighting inflation exonerates culprits in the private sector.

thehill.com

 

[RU-05]

Sofi up 20% on earnings. Still trying to crack $10.

Sold next weeks $11 calls on the move

 

[RU-05]

Well sofi was up 23%. Now only15%

So my calls are looking like free money.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sofi up 20% on earnings. Still trying to crack $10.

Sold next weeks $11 calls on the move

Up over 100% on CLRB so far. Gotta love biotech. :)

The narrative on SOFI seemed to be accurate. SOFI would rally as student loan payments and refi's came online. Should have listened to it!

 

[RUAldo]

Up over 100% on CLRB so far. Gotta love biotech. :)

The narrative on SOFI seemed to be accurate. SOFI would rally as student loan payments and refi's came online. Should have listened to it!

I still have another 15% before I see green on SOFI but I’m going to hold long term. Been a rough ride.

 

[RU-05]

Smci beats, raises and rips.

Im in for a double in a couple months. Haven’t had a stock run like this in a while. Feels nice.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Smci beats, raises and rips.

Im in for a double in a couple months. Haven’t had a stock run like this in a while. Feels nice.

Hopefully this bodes well for the other semi stocks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I still have another 15% before I see green on SOFI but I’m going to hold long term. Been a rough ride.

I have always thought SOFI will end up being one of the few Fintech winners. I should have bought during the bear market!

 

[T2Kplus20]

Small step in the right direction for PFE:

Pfizer posts surprise profit as US returns fewer courses of COVID pill

https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202401300651RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN34E0SG-OUSBS_1

 

[Joey Bags]

UPS gets boned, lays off 12k employees.

Union negotiations bent em over the barrel.