OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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I believe TCRT/Alaunos has a below average chance at success. Based on recent press releases, they are clearly struggling for survival. Down to $12m in cash at the end of the last quarter. They ditched their lead program for a new one that is still pre-clinical (hunTR TRC). Maybe they get a grant or angel partner to keep them alive? Regardless, it is a long, long road ahead for them.
I've seen worse. LOL! I've seen a company go down to 7 employees and then a few years later get bought for several billion. That's biotech. However, you still need to play the odds.
Maybe inflation has been conquered. From Pompleano:
There is strong debate in the market about the US economy. One side believes the Federal Reserve will pull off the impossible and guide us towards a soft landing. The other side thinks the economy is showing significant red flags and is destined for a recession. The truth is that no one knows what is going to happen. That won’t stop people from trying to figure it out though. There are trillions of dollars, and many reputations, on the line in this debate. Take Anne Walsh, the Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, who told Bloomberg last week “we still see a recession coming, although our base case is a mild recession, and as a result we still see rate cuts [coming]. We are actually predicting they start sooner rather than later.” James Solloway, the Chief Market Strategist at asset management firm SEI, told Marketwatch last week that the big problem in the economy today is how many people are expecting these interest rate cuts. His view is that 3% inflation is not problematic as long as the market believes the Fed will keep interest rates at the current level or potentially raise them further. These are just two anecdotal opinions though. What does the market believe? Ann Saphir writes for Reuters: “Futures contracts that settle to the Fed's policy rate fell, and now reflect about a 47% chance of a Fed rate cut by March, down from 55% earlier in the day. Just a week ago the probability of an interest-rate cut in March from the current range of 5.25%-5.5% was seen at nearly 80%, reflecting faster-than-expected declines in inflation. Fed policymakers themselves had also signaled at their December meeting that their rate-hike campaign was likely at an end and that in 2024 they would probably start to reverse course. In the last week, though, signs of the consumer's continued strength and indications that the inflation battle has not yet been won have eroded confidence in the likelihood that the Fed will pivot all that soon. Central bankers, in this last week of public commentary before a self-imposed quiet period ahead of their late-January meeting, have also suggested a rate cut may not be imminent, even as they continue to call out progress on the inflation fight and hold the door open to a rate hike a little later in the year.” That pesky inflation continues to rear it’s ugly head. Another interesting point comes from Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello who explains “the S&P 500 is now 11% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.”
Truflation, the leading alternative inflation measurement, is showing the current inflation rate is 1.86%. That is nearly 50% lower than the Fed’s current reading of 3.4%.
If the Fed has already accomplished their goal of getting inflation back to the 2% target, and there are meaningful signs of a potential recession, it would be prudent for the Fed to start cutting interest rates sooner than the market expects. Some of you may ask me — what signs of a recession exist today? Paul Davidson of USA Today points out the following: “A measure of small business hiring plans fell to the lowest level since June and marked the second lowest reading since the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, the National Federation of Independent Business said last week.” “Both manufacturers and service companies said they cut jobs in December, the first time that’s happened since October 2022, according to Ludtka and surveys by the Institute for Supply Management.” “Job growth was revised down in 11 of 12 months last year, Ludtka says. That often occurs when the economy is at an inflection point, or shifting from growth to contraction.” “In the third quarter, credit card debt hit a record high of $1.1 trillion and delinquencies were at their highest level since 2011, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Ludtka.” “Net profit margins for S&P 500 companies likely shrank to 10.9% in the fourth quarter, the lowest level since late 2020, FactSet, a financial data and software company, estimated Friday ahead of earnings season.” “The yield on the 3-year Treasury bond has been well above the 10-year Treasury for more than a year, notes Gus Faucher, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group.” (known as inverted yield curve) Each of these signs are worth paying attention to, but none of them guarantee a recession will happen. This is the beauty and difficulty of financial markets. Uncertainty rules the day. Regardless of whether a recession comes or not, my best guess is that we will see looser monetary policy to end the year than we have today. How severe the loosening will be, along with the exact timing, is up for debate. But economies around the world are addicted to cheap money and central banks are more than happy to deliver the drug of choice. We can fight the trend in the short-term, but the long-term trend may as well be written in stone. Cheap money. Higher asset prices. And a lot of investors who will have to figure it out along the way. -Anthony Pompliano |
Powell himself touted that PCE Core (preferred inflation metric) has been UNDER 2% annualized for the past 6 months and counting. What else needs to be said?
History books will show, this round of inflation was transitory. LOL!
GE hitting a 52wk high today ahead of earnings tomorrow. It’s been on a great run. Feel like there might be some sell the news off earnings and the rally. Culp usually underpromises and over delivers so that might baked in already without a really big beat and guidance.
Vernova spinoff coming in Q2 and then the jewel of the company will stand on its own with what I consider excellent management.
Vernova spinoff coming in Q2 and then the jewel of the company will stand on its own with what I consider excellent management.
Fun movie! I watched it a few weeks ago via Xfinity on demand ($3.99 rental). Good times. :)
Mezrich’s next movie will be about nft’s. Can’t wait for that one lol.
By the way, what level are you looking for with BTC? The 20w support band is $36500'ish. I think that may be a good time to add to positions.
$39200 is a 20% pullback from recent top. Could still have another 10-20% to go. I’d be happy adding anywhere below 40
Very cool. I already own PANW, ZS, and CRWD via Tom Lee's stock list. Looking to add TENB and TLS soon. I need to dive into some research and IR materials first. Also, based on Ives, got MDB on my watch list!
Tom Lee is warning of a modest pullback of 5-7% for Feb'ish. Load the boat if that happens! The rest of the year will likely rip.
Playing any earnings reports this week?
GE is selling off pre market on the earnings news. Good earnings but guidance fairly light compared to expectations. Kind of feel like this is Culp again being very conservative with estimates and when the time comes at the very least meet it with a good chance of beating it. Last qtr before the Vernova spinoff might be part of being conservative as well.
Just wondering, what will be GE's relative size once the final spinoff is completed (vs. the full GE from the past). Not sure how long GEHC and Vernova are.
Ugh…my lack of patience in my TKO trade has ruined my morning LOL! Started loading up at $72. It flatlined at $80 so I sold out a few weeks ago. This morning TKO up 23% to $96 on a new Netflix deal. Very frustrating!
On a different note, anyone have thoughts/recommendations on companies that could end up being the pics/shovels for nationwide EV infrastructure? Not looking for the charging companies but thinking more of the supply chain.
On a different note, anyone have thoughts/recommendations on companies that could end up being the pics/shovels for nationwide EV infrastructure? Not looking for the charging companies but thinking more of the supply chain.
It's a much smaller company compared to the past conglomerate. I never like market cap as a measure because it's just function of share price and can be inflated at times so doesn't give a true picture. I think at its peak it might have been 500B but now maybe 100B or so after the breakups and the other 2 pieces in the 30-50s give or take. But like I said I don't take that to mean much of anything.
It's more streamlined and focused which is what investors have wanted for a long time. No NBC Universal. No appliances and lighting for company named General Electric lol. GE Capital mostly gone which was just black box which I always thought was used to smooth earnings. It's a big part of what caused the huge mess Culp had to clean up in the first place. It endangered the company during the crash and did so again with long term care costs that should have been reserved for a decade plus ago lol. It was just a pandora's box. This is an industrial company not a financial one.
Now the businesses are focused and earnings can be reported cleanly and they can rise or fall on their own without the opaqueness.
I know we will need to modernize and expand our power grid throughout the nation. What companies do that type of infrastructure? I need to look that up. Also, at home charging will be critical, which means the ENPH and SolarEdges of the world (and TSLA).
NFLX goes KABOOM:
www.cnbc.com
Netflix adds 13.1 million subscribers, tops revenue estimates as membership push gains steam
Netflix reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.
Not bad, probably better than expected. Need to hear updated guidance on the call.
China stock collapsing
Shanghai Index down 5% (25% past 2 years) last week.
500 billion Chinese corporate equity wiped out - derivative crash
Market below 2007 - clumsy CCP destroys returns
China secret - "a black hole for investors for a generation"
China debt 300% of GDP - equivalent to 80 trillion usd by comparison
I always said China is a vampire economy living off US sacrificing itself
Shanghai Index down 5% (25% past 2 years) last week.
500 billion Chinese corporate equity wiped out - derivative crash
Market below 2007 - clumsy CCP destroys returns
China secret - "a black hole for investors for a generation"
China debt 300% of GDP - equivalent to 80 trillion usd by comparison
I always said China is a vampire economy living off US sacrificing itself
TSLA is going to get slaughtered (the stock, not the company). This is why I have been selling my TSLA stock for a while now. I guess "You go away from woke, you really go broke". The trailer trash of the red states are not buying Tesla's. Don't piss off your main customer base.
Are there any statistics on state by state Tesla sales? Recently someone threw some crazy numbers at me basically claiming outside of the Northwest, Northeast, and Southeast (plus TX) that Tesla sales are non-existent. And that Tesla basically relies on 6 states. But I can’t find the source. Curious if any truth to it.
Interesting. Do they break out sales in the Northwest by urban and rural? I think this might correlate with charging station availability issues in rural areas But I guess since they're all trailer trash we really shouldn't care.
Article is almost two years old…
More recent numbers here. The map (bottom of the article) would appear to be filling in..
BEV sales passed new milestone in the U.S. in 2023; state adoption varies
New data shows that the BEV market continued to grow in the U.S. last year, while adoption rates varied from one state to the next.
www.teslarati.com
Can't complain about TSLA directly, the entire EV market is in a slump. But all things will change. I'll be patient and buy the dip.
Good video:
EV market as a whole being in a slump maybe true, but TSLA has a much more bloated valuation compared to most other companies. There is tremendous growth built in the stock. Declining growth and stagnant revenue is definitely not part of the calculus and will hurt the stock for the next few quarters especially once the downgrades start to roll. TSLA stock has not gone anywhere the past couple of years which will worsen and have other ramifications. UAW is itching to unionize Tesla autoworkers. If Elon Musk can’t entice autoworkers with options for a TSLA stock that moves parabolic, then UAW becomes that much more attractive. Lots of potential issues in the next 1-2 years. Not to mention that FSD has gone nowhere and despite years of data head start, Waymo and other companies are catching up faster than expected. If all I have to look forward to is growth in the supercharger arena, then I am not excited.
TSLA is and will always be a sentiment stock, not fundamentals. Sentiment on Musk and EVs are low, but that will surely change. I doubt UAW will unionize TSLA. Beyond stock, we all known Musk will just raise the pay of workers to stick it to the unions. FSD needs to make progress and TSLA needs to get the new models to market (updated 3 and new $30k model). Mark Newton, the TA lead at FS Insights (Tom Lee's crew) thinks TSLA may bottom in the $180-185 range. Let's see what happens! Definitely more weakness coming.
By the way, any updated thoughts on RIVN? Some overall EV weakness may be a long-term opportunity.
FWIW, I sold all my RIVN around $20 because I felt like EV sentiment is in a downward spiral. Nobody is bitching about oil/gas prices at the moment. Lots of negative press around EV infrastructure and batteries. Auto manufacturers are trying to give them away with limited success. I’m pretty sure this is why Volvo keeps delaying the XC90 EV. There needs to be a fresh EV catalyst to turn around the market. With that said I’m a big fan of RIVN trucks and do think it’s a long term winner.
The future of RIVN will depend on their management‘s ability to navigate this environment. They are steadily increasing production, but need to find ways to sell more trucks/SUV. Opening their sales to leases will help, but they have to thread the needle with their finances for the next couple of years. I like the idea of selling commercial vehicles to ATT and hopefully other deals will follow. But the future is uncertain.
+1
Big fan of their product/trucks. I got out as well, but ready to look for a new entry point. I would love to see RIVN do a reset/kitchen sink earnings report and establish new expectations. That would be a nice time to buy!
+1
As mentioned above, love the product, concerned about the finances. I think the key to their future is a successful launch of the R2 trucks, that will hopefully be profitable!
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