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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Wonderful quarter for Chipotle! Typical quarter for SNAP. Ug, should have thought about puts for SNAP. LOL!


Great discussion on what’s wrong with Snap starting at 20:46…
 
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Powell already said, we will cut FFR rates to maintain real rates, which are restrictive now. As inflation goes down, real rates increase. As Tom Lee says, all that matters is inflation. Sure, a strong economy may have the Fed cut slower or adjust the details of the cutting cycle, but inflation is the driver of what will happen.

Another positive dynamic.....is good news finally good news again? Stocks went up after that massive jobs report hit.
But does the economy not effect inflation? And wouldn’t there be a risk of reigniting inflation if the fed cut rates in a strong economy?

I know it’s a when question and not an if question, but given the economy, I think there is still room to wait.

That said I think this is all bullish. A strong economy with inflation going down and plenty of room for the fed to cut if needed? That sounds like there is plenty of runway.
 
But does the economy not effect inflation? And wouldn’t there be a risk of reigniting inflation if the fed cut rates in a strong economy?

I know it’s a when question and not an if question, but given the economy, I think there is still room to wait.

That said I think this is all bullish. A strong economy with inflation going down and plenty of room for the fed to cut if needed? That sounds like there is plenty of runway.
We don't have a strong economy. It's a credit driven event right now. China will export deflation hugely
 
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We don't have a strong economy. It's a credit driven event right now. China will export deflation hugely
And productivity is already rebounding which will be supercharged by AI. That will suppress inflation even further.
 
smci keeps on ripping. up another 7% today

I’ll definitely be out before nvda’s earnings.
 
smci keeps on ripping. up another 7% today

I’ll definitely be out before nvda’s earnings.
WTF is going on with ARM? It spiked 35% on no news, but my puts weren't crushed? It looks like they went up. Both things don't make sense. LOL!
 
Added vol?
Vol up to 150%. Not sure what it was before. I need to learn more about it. I know what Vol is, but obviously unsure how it impacts price at certain times.
 
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I sold my SMCI near the highs of the day. Hopefully it's the high's of a longer time period, and I will be able to get back in at a later date.

If NVDA reports big earnings, but still sells off, taking SMCI with it, I'll look to get back in then.

I added to COMP and Z.

Started a position in NHS and it's 13% div paid monthly. Ex Dividend date is the 14th, so that starts paying off immediately.

Been looking at EXPE which sold off hard after earnings, but has recovered a bit since.
 
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Final tally for ARM today:

Up 29%
My puts up 1%
WTF?

@rurahrah000 - Any ideas on this? Doesn't seem to make sense.
Look up Black-Scholes formula to understand what moves the price of options. It is all math.

In short, you are seeing an uptick because you likely have a longer term put option so time is not a big factor (yet), but volatility is helping you.
 
Look up Black-Scholes formula to understand what moves the price of options. It is all math.

In short, you are seeing an uptick because you likely have a longer term put option so time is not a big factor (yet), but volatility is helping you.
Got it, thanks! I researched Black-Scholes a lot in the past, but only with regards to company stock options and equity plans.

Vol definitely spiked up today.
 
I sold my SMCI near the highs of the day. Hopefully it's the high's of a longer time period, and I will be able to get back in at a later date.

If NVDA reports big earnings, but still sells off, taking SMCI with it, I'll look to get back in then.

I added to COMP and Z.

Started a position in NHS and it's 13% div paid monthly. Ex Dividend date is the 14th, so that starts paying off immediately.

Been looking at EXPE which sold off hard after earnings, but has recovered a bit since.
Even for a crazy tech bull like me, I'm getting nervous with the run up in a few subsectors, like semis. May need to trim a few of my growth/tech funds and etfs.
 
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Even for a crazy tech bull like me, I'm getting nervous with the run up in a few subsectors, like semis. May need to trim a few of my growth/tech funds and etfs.
Odd part is SMCI isn't even that expensive. Less then 5x Rev's. ARM by comparison is 40x revs.

Which had me a little torn. But the run up is just too crazy.
 
Odd part is SMCI isn't even that expensive. Less then 5x Rev's. ARM by comparison is 40x revs.

Which had me a little torn. But the run up is just too crazy.
Good point on SMCI (and NVDA). Revenue is skyrocketing for these companies. ARM, not so much. Regardless, I did trim SMCI by 25% last week. That move was crypto altcoin crazy! Set your goal and stick to it.
 
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Inflation came in hot this morning. Rates unfortunately staying up.

Rents accelerating not deflating. The rents downdrafts never materialized.
 
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Well, yes and no. In the data they use, rents are up….. but in reality they are not up.
Exactly. Rents turned deflationary a while ago. Only in the theoretical world of CPI math are rent prices up. LOL!
 
Exactly. Rents turned deflationary a while ago. Only in the theoretical world of CPI math are rent prices up. LOL!
So the 6 month lag in rental data is now lasting 12 months. You’ve been complaining for a year and saying any month now the reality will be reflected in the data.

YoY rents up 6%. In the last reading.
 
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So the 6 month lag in rental data is now lasting 12 months. You’ve been complaining for a year and saying any month now the reality will be reflected in the data.

YoY rents up 6%. In the last reading.
6 months? Hell no. 12-15 month lag based on the data. We are about at the year mark now.
 
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@RU-05,@T2K,@RUAldo and any other MULN holders:

  • Mullen Automotive Inc. delivered 231 vehicles in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023, marking a significant improvement from previous periods.
  • The company's net loss attributable to common stockholders decreased from $376.9 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2022, to $61.4 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023.
  • Mullen obtained CARB, federal EPA, and NHTSA certifications for its Class 1 and Class 3 vehicles, enhancing its market presence and sales potential.
  • The company submitted a pre-application to the U.S. Department of Energy's ATVM Loan Program to support its expansion into domestic battery material processing and manufacturing.
  • Mullen opened a battery module and pack development facility in Fullerton, California, focusing on scaling U.S.-made EV battery production and reducing reliance on foreign components.
  • The solid-state polymer battery pack integration for the Mullen ONE EV cargo van is expected to increase range to over 190 miles, representing a significant improvement over current industry standards.
  • The company's financial results for the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023, show a notable decrease in net loss and improved revenue recognition practices.
  • Mullen Automotive Inc. maintained a relatively stable total stockholders' equity of $271.8 million for Dec. 31, 2023, compared to $272.8 million for Sept. 30, 2023.
  • The company's balance sheet reflects a total cash amount of $88.9 million at Dec. 31, 2023, with a working capital of $47.1 million, indicating a strong financial position.
  • Mullen Automotive Inc. expects to close a $32 million loan in February 2024 to increase usable capital for vehicle production, further supporting its growth initiatives.
 
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@RU-05,@T2K,@RUAldo and any other MULN holders:

  • Mullen Automotive Inc. delivered 231 vehicles in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023, marking a significant improvement from previous periods.
  • The company's net loss attributable to common stockholders decreased from $376.9 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2022, to $61.4 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023.
  • Mullen obtained CARB, federal EPA, and NHTSA certifications for its Class 1 and Class 3 vehicles, enhancing its market presence and sales potential.
  • The company submitted a pre-application to the U.S. Department of Energy's ATVM Loan Program to support its expansion into domestic battery material processing and manufacturing.
  • Mullen opened a battery module and pack development facility in Fullerton, California, focusing on scaling U.S.-made EV battery production and reducing reliance on foreign components.
  • The solid-state polymer battery pack integration for the Mullen ONE EV cargo van is expected to increase range to over 190 miles, representing a significant improvement over current industry standards.
  • The company's financial results for the three months ended Dec. 31, 2023, show a notable decrease in net loss and improved revenue recognition practices.
  • Mullen Automotive Inc. maintained a relatively stable total stockholders' equity of $271.8 million for Dec. 31, 2023, compared to $272.8 million for Sept. 30, 2023.
  • The company's balance sheet reflects a total cash amount of $88.9 million at Dec. 31, 2023, with a working capital of $47.1 million, indicating a strong financial position.
  • Mullen Automotive Inc. expects to close a $32 million loan in February 2024 to increase usable capital for vehicle production, further supporting its growth initiatives.
Interesting update. Are they starting to turn the corner?
 
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