ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Too soon for an opinion on his CEF. 2% fee is pretty high. A few factors to look at is what is the goal of the fund. Lots of CEF's are interest sensitive (real estate, mortgage backed securities, etc). You don't want the fund to be highly leveraged (30% is about the max that I would consider), and you need a track record of distributions that are mostly dividends and interest and not artificially high with ROC which will reduce your NAV and basically be returning your investment instead of real income. You also want to see if its primarily income producing or looking for capital appreciation (that's a personal choice, I look for income with principal preservation at this point in my life). To get almost all the info you want on a particular CEF, bookmark https://www.cefconnect.com/.
Good stuff, I need to see how Fidelity deals with closed-ended funds. Thanks!
 
Too soon for an opinion on his CEF. 2% fee is pretty high. A few factors to look at is what is the goal of the fund. Lots of CEF's are interest sensitive (real estate, mortgage backed securities, etc). You don't want the fund to be highly leveraged (30% is about the max that I would consider), and you need a track record of distributions that are mostly dividends and interest and not artificially high with ROC which will reduce your NAV and basically be returning your investment instead of real income. You also want to see if its primarily income producing or looking for capital appreciation (that's a personal choice, I look for income with principal preservation at this point in my life). To get almost all the info you want on a particular CEF,


Closed end funds can trade at a premium or distinct to NAV. Quick look at the N-2 shows risks including lack of liquidity, lack of diversification risks, and about 20 pages of other potential risks. Fees too high for me, and this isn’t something I’d be interested it, but to each his own. Worth a read.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ScarletNut
Can you buy them on regular online trading platforms (i.e., Fidelity, E-Trade, etc.)?
Check out NHS. Its been around since 2003, has a 13% dividend, all income (no ROC), distributed monthly. I had been reinvesting the monthly distribution for years until I decided to start collecting the monthly income which is now pretty hefty.
 
Check out NHS. Its been around since 2003, has a 13% dividend, all income (no ROC), distributed monthly. I had been reinvesting the monthly distribution for years until I decided to start collecting the monthly income which is now pretty hefty.
I'll check it out this morning. That sounds like a great option for our Fidelity Rollover IRA (tax-deferred distributions!). :)
 
Check out NHS. Its been around since 2003, has a 13% dividend, all income (no ROC), distributed monthly. I had been reinvesting the monthly distribution for years until I decided to start collecting the monthly income which is now pretty hefty.
I see the stock chart is pretty lousy. Do you know total performance over 5-10 yr?
 
Got in under $80! But I did lose a few bucks on DIS calls that I bailed on.
I've mentioned a couple times over the years 80s (into high 70s) was where the long term support that held multiple times even in bigger down turns.

That would be a good example of place to use a stop as well. If that support had broken definitively, it could mean a sign of a bigger drop to come and you get stopped out limiting your losses. If it holds then that's great.
 
My buddy and I were just talking stocks. He likes Z and COMP and I actually talked him into starting small(very small) positions on each.

Z expecting 15% rev growth, and significant EPS growth(Non gaap it's profitiable, gaap it is not, but I hate that there is this distinction and E-trade doesn't clearly make the distinction) and it is free cash flow positive. Always beats too.

COMP has less growth and not expecting to be profitable in the next bunch of years, but it looks to be getting past trough rev's in 2023, it is expected to be free cash flow positive in 2024, and is dirt cheap on rev's at .3x (that is point three). Z by comparison is 7x rev's.

Both stocks dropped hard into Nov lows, rebounded and have consolidated without dropping, this past month. Z still below pre covid (edit) highs.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: redking
I see the stock chart is pretty lousy. Do you know total performance over 5-10 yr?
It looks like lowest investment grade or junk which is why you get the high yield. It looks like it's trading towards the lower end of its range now.
 
It looks like lowest investment grade or junk which is why you get the high yield. It looks like it's trading towards the lower end of its range now.
I do see that. The overall downward trajecty is the wrong way, but might be a good spot for a trade.

And the monthly payouts make that a trade more attractive, especially if the upward move is not immediate.
 
I see the stock chart is pretty lousy. Do you know total performance over 5-10 yr?
Its alltime low was around 4.28 and alltime high of 16.48 over a 20 year history. I wouldn't buy it to trade or necessarily look for big capital appreciation moves but rather for the dividends which have been solid over its lifetime.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUBlackout
The fact that SMCI did not give back some of that monster move immediately is fairly interesting.

The last couple days it has started in the red only to battle back to green or at least near even.

Who knows if the rev/EPS growth stick, but it's not that expensive. 53x P/E, 4x rev's.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Its alltime low was around 4.28 and alltime high of 16.48 over a 20 year history. I wouldn't buy it to trade or necessarily look for big capital appreciation moves but rather for the dividends which have been solid over its lifetime.
I meant total performance including Div's.

T2K says morningstar has the charts.
 
My buddy and I were just talking stocks. He likes Z and COMP and I actually talked him into starting small(very small) positions on each.

Z expecting 15% rev growth, and significant EPS growth(Non gaap it's profitiable, gaap it is not, but I hate that there is this distinction and E-trade doesn't clearly make the distinction) and it is free cash flow positive. Always beats too.

COMP has less growth and not expecting to be profitable in the next bunch of years, but it looks to be getting past trough rev's in 2023, it is expected to be free cash flow positive in 2024, and is dirt cheap on rev's at .3x (that is point three). Z by comparison is 7x rev's.

Both stocks dropped hard into Nov lows, rebounded and have consolidated without dropping, this past month. Z still below pre covid lows.
Don't know much about COMP, but Z is pretty interesting. They completely S the bed with their selling/realtor initiative which was quickly dumped. Maybe they stabilized and ready to get back on track?
 
So NHS looks up slightly on the on year. Down on the 3 yr. Up 30% on the 5yr.
 
Don't know much about COMP, but Z is pretty interesting. They completely S the bed with their selling/realtor initiative which was quickly dumped. Maybe they stabilized and ready to get back on track?
Fwd looking estimates, especially in terms of EPS, look great.
 
The fact that SMCI did not give back some of that monster move immediately is fairly interesting.

The last couple days it has started in the red only to battle back to green or at least near even.

Who knows if the rev/EPS growth stick, but it's not that expensive. 53x P/E, 4x rev's.
I think on one of the Compound shows (not sure) but recently it was reported that the CEO of SMCI said the path to $30B in annual revenue is achievable. It's at about $9b'ish now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
My buddy and I were just talking stocks. He likes Z and COMP and I actually talked him into starting small(very small) positions on each.

Z expecting 15% rev growth, and significant EPS growth(Non gaap it's profitiable, gaap it is not, but I hate that there is this distinction and E-trade doesn't clearly make the distinction) and it is free cash flow positive. Always beats too.

COMP has less growth and not expecting to be profitable in the next bunch of years, but it looks to be getting past trough rev's in 2023, it is expected to be free cash flow positive in 2024, and is dirt cheap on rev's at .3x (that is point three). Z by comparison is 7x rev's.

Both stocks dropped hard into Nov lows, rebounded and have consolidated without dropping, this past month. Z still below pre covid lows.
It's not for me but I'm always curious to look. Am I looking at the right chart. Z looks like it's trading around pre-covid highs, not lows.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
I do see that. The overall downward trajecty is the wrong way, but might be a good spot for a trade.

And the monthly payouts make that a trade more attractive, especially if the upward move is not immediate.
I don't know if a CEF is something you'd look to trade as opposed to hold for some period because it suits your investment goal/strategy.

Personally, I see it like a mutual fund in that respect. It's more liquid than a mutual fund in that it can be traded throughout the day as opposed to once a day but it's still not liquid like stocks/ETFs etc..
 
  • Like
Reactions: ScarletNut
I don't know if a CEF is something you'd look to trade as opposed to hold for some period because it suits your investment goal/strategy.

Personally, I see it like a mutual fund in that respect. It's more liquid than a mutual fund in that it can be traded throughout the day as opposed to once a day but it's still not liquid like stocks/ETFs etc..
Given that overall downward trend, it would not be something I'd buy and hold just to keep that Div.

Aside from the post Covid market surge, that is a lower high lower lows chart since 2011. And even the post Covid surge only slightly broke above that trend.
 
Guy was just on CNBC, mostly talking banks.

But towards the end they talk China. Very bearish. This the excesses in the housing market will take down banks. Thinks they will be exporting deflation for years to come.

Would that allow the US to run a hot economy feeding off their deflation to keep our inflation in check?
 
I had HII finally break out to ATH's on a massive Earnings beat last week. EPS of 6.9 vs 4.3 expected. Not sure how it beat by that much. EPS was expected to grow in the years ahead but with that huge 4th qtr beat, 2024 EPS is currently expected to be down slightly. Before picking up again after that.

They upped their buy back from $3.2B to $3.8, which is monster given it's an $11B market cap.

16x P/E.

Fairly modest div at 1.89%, but that Div has grown well over the years.

Previous ATH dates back to 2018, and a level it's been rejected from multiple times since.

I bought it originally in 2021, has been one of my higher convictions, up 45% on that original purchase. Think there is a lot more there.
 
Holy macaroni. ARM is now up 55% today.

What is the driver here? Beats and guide beats look good but not off the charts good.

Price to rev's is currently 30x I think.
 
G
Guy was just on CNBC, mostly talking banks.

But towards the end they talk China. Very bearish. This the excesses in the housing market will take down banks. Thinks they will be exporting deflation for years to come.

Would that allow the US to run a hot economy feeding off their deflation to keep our inflation in check?
Guy bearish about something? Shocked, shocked I tell you. LOL! Seriously, China is a mess, but I'm still looking for a bottom. The gov'ment has to start juicing soon, right?

As for China impacting the US. Everyone keeps saying China is having a recession for us (as in, now we won't have one anytime soon). And yes, I keep hearing a lot of smart people saying China's deflation will be "exported" to the US and help bring/keep inflation low here. This makes sense to me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Holy macaroni. ARM is now up 55% today.

What is the driver here? Beats and guide beats look good but not off the charts good.

Price to rev's is currently 30x I think.
Time for puts? :)
I was dubious about ARM at $50. But once again, fundamentals mean less than sentiment and technicals. Just another example of this.
 
G

Guy bearish about something? Shocked, shocked I tell you. LOL! Seriously, China is a mess, but I'm still looking for a bottom. The gov'ment has to start juicing soon, right?

As for China impacting the US. Everyone keeps saying China is having a recession for us (as in, now we won't have one anytime soon). And yes, I keep hearing a lot of smart people saying China's deflation will be "exported" to the US and help bring/keep inflation low here. This makes sense to me.
Sorry, a guy. Not Guy.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Time for puts? :)
I was dubious about ARM at $50. But once again, fundamentals mean less than sentiment and technicals. Just another example of this.
Probably very expensive today.

Edit: Puts are expensive today I meant.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Time for puts? :)
I was dubious about ARM at $50. But once again, fundamentals mean less than sentiment and technicals. Just another example of this.
I liked ARM even before Softbank took it private. Those days its designs were helping Apple transition away from Intel chips and using their own. Its designs are used by practically everyone now and that's only grown with time. AI can be a boon to them just us much as anyone else.

I've mentioned these popular IPOs (re-IPO in this case lol) usually get dips below the IPO price but they can bounce back. It did but now my goodness, it's expensive. I like the company but I wouldn't get into at this price.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
MULN supposedly reporting next Tuesday.

I say supposedly because they never actually show up.

But the Nasdaq recently ruled them compliant in terms of stock price(despite MULN reverse splitting way more then Nasdaq rules allow), an earnings call is the next step in achieving overall compliance. Plus MULN is now actually delivering vehicles and producing revs, so they might have some good news to report.

Market cap of $40m.

I've been absolutely smoked in this one, as I've kept adding to a small original position as the stock tanked, but think I might add just a little bit more ahead of earnings. If it blows up one more time then that will be the end of it for me.
 
MULN supposedly reporting next Tuesday.

I say supposedly because they never actually show up.

But the Nasdaq recently ruled them compliant in terms of stock price(despite MULN reverse splitting way more then Nasdaq rules allow), an earnings call is the next step in achieving overall compliance. Plus MULN is now actually delivering vehicles and producing revs, so they might have some good news to report.

Market cap of $40m.

I've been absolutely smoked in this one, as I've kept adding to a small original position as the stock tanked, but think I might add just a little bit more ahead of earnings. If it blows up one more time then that will be the end of it for me.
Time to buy MULN and put ARM? :)
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT