OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Sentiment is very poor for EVs right now. Will that change? Definitely. Too many states and pols are pushing them. If you can catch somewhere close to the bottom, you will make a lot of money.
Definitely a significant lull.
Im interested to see if the commercial business will keep RIVN going.
WOLF getting crushed as a result of EV winter. I sold some at a sizable loss this morning just to stop the bleeding. Ugh - Looks like I have a lot of work to do this year to get out of the red on my personal trading account!!!
R2 launch event seems to be scheduled for March 7th. They don’t expect production until 2026 but at least we will get a look and some details.
Added more today @ 25.40. Be greedy when others are fearful.
The future of the company is riding on the new R2 models. They need to be their Tesla Model 3 (i.e., a profitable moderate priced vehicle for the masses). Perhaps I should get a leap call in place before 3/7!
LOL! Great post.
FYI, I made my first Karma-based SOL purchase. Just some idiot insurance in case it 10x's again. Need some skin in the game.
I own it. The chart is ridiculous. Another 15% today.
But the earnings justify the move.
Yeah I’m definitely fearful LOL…latest I heard BMW is basically giving away EVs. First it was Audi. On top of that an old buddy who is working as a lawyer at Rivian was posting on LI for people to contact him and he’ll get them a $1000 discount. A f’in lawyer is trying to drive sales to Rivian?!?! That can’t be good
I own it as well! Why? Because Tom Lee told me to buy it on 1/17 (not joking). Got in around $320. LOL!
You should take profits or at the very least sell upside calls. The chart has gotten out of hand.
I agree with that. Straight lines up can't go on forever, no matter the situation.
Outstanding quarter! I have a way too small position at $18'ish. Buy more shares or leap calls? :)
I had felt that $17 was the support which has proven to be correct, but ~$20 is resistance. I want to see it break out above that level to get excited about the stock in the short term. Long term, this is a company that is going to be an AI winner. If you are looking at the long term investment, I would buy more here and not worry about a few dollars in price fluctuations.
Makes sense, I will add to my position and hold. Any thoughts on how long the "EV winter" will be? Sentiment is so bad right now. EV makers and any companies like WOLF that support the industry are getting smacked. However, EVs aren't going away, so catching a few of these close/around the bottom may be long-term HRs.
I may need a therapist after this month LOL…got crushed by WOLF and IRBT (can’t even explain that insanity!?!) and I sell RACE right before it goes on a 20% tear in less than 2 weeks not to mention missed a big swing up on ALGN. Thank God for Uber, DraftKings, and Meta. But I’m gonna have to pull off a miracle to finish in the green by 12/31 on my trading account. And I have very little confidence in WOLF right now as I completely underestimated the EV downturn. When my buddy recently pulled up in a BMW i5 M60 loaded with every option and is paying like $900 p/mo for a car that is over $100K that screamed EV disaster. And that’s consistent with Audi dumping EVs! I may not be thinking clearly (after looking at my trades!), but would not be shocked if there are EV related bankruptcies on the horizon. The whole EV industry could collapse.
I'm up 4.7% YTD in my personal account, not including today which was a smidge down. It's early Feb and a LONG way to go in the year. I am planning for a big small-cap play using Jan 2025 IWM calls. If you are not an options person, think about UWM (the 2x Russell 2000). That's an easy play if you are patient. Nobody has perfect timing, but small caps are likely heading up as rate cuts come into focus.
NVDA is the greatest stock I have ever owned!
F'ing A! :)
Not only have I owned it for a long time in my personal/fun account, 2 of my biggest growth funds in our retirement accounts (FDGRX and FBGRX) have NVDA massively overweight. Like 10-12% positions. Life is good!
If you have a bunch of PLTR at about $18, then I would wait until it decisively breaks $20 before purchasing more particularly for the short term.
EV "winter" may last for another 1-2 years until the infrastructure catches up. TVs aren't going anywhere but the adoption will be slowed until then.
SMCI is almost a cult stock right now. it has a good product but competition is coming for them. Cyclical stocks that are rising this rapidly will almost assuredly crash at some point. No one can guess when the FOMO will end. it could be $10 or $100 from now. My suggestions when it comes to these type of stocks without strong long term fundamental prospects (unlike NVDA) would be to take initial investment plus a healthy profit (25%) off the table and let the rest ride (house money). Just my opinion. You can then sell upside call, etc with the remaining stocks.
Eli Lilly results blow past estimates on strong Zepbound launch, surging Mounjaro revenue
The quarterly results are the first to include sales of Eli Lilly's new weight loss drug Zepbound, which won FDA approval in early November.
Followers of WOLF should understand the company's EV opportunity is just a share of its overall opportunity of the power electronics market, as that market transitions from silicon to silicon carbide (SiC) wafers/chips.
SiC semiconductors operate at much higher voltages, temperatures and frequencies than traditional silicon semiconductors, making them suitable for industries such as telecom and energy as well as defense, consumer electronics, medical and... EVs.
As for financials, WOLF has more than $2.6 billion of cash and liquidity on hand to support itself and its expansion.
WOLF continues to pursue and benefit from government funding via the US CHIPs Act. WOLF is part of a strategic national/domestic infrastructure, breaking our historical reliance on foreign resources, much like we did with oil.
Also note that WOLF's new Mohawk NY production facility will ramp up to be at 20% capacity by this June. The other new production facility in NC (The JP) won't come online til mid '25. So lots of start-up costs and investment in getting these facilities up and running and at capacity. So, again, perspective.
It also remains that WOLF could be acquired.
SiC semiconductors operate at much higher voltages, temperatures and frequencies than traditional silicon semiconductors, making them suitable for industries such as telecom and energy as well as defense, consumer electronics, medical and... EVs.
As for financials, WOLF has more than $2.6 billion of cash and liquidity on hand to support itself and its expansion.
WOLF continues to pursue and benefit from government funding via the US CHIPs Act. WOLF is part of a strategic national/domestic infrastructure, breaking our historical reliance on foreign resources, much like we did with oil.
Also note that WOLF's new Mohawk NY production facility will ramp up to be at 20% capacity by this June. The other new production facility in NC (The JP) won't come online til mid '25. So lots of start-up costs and investment in getting these facilities up and running and at capacity. So, again, perspective.
It also remains that WOLF could be acquired.
Outstanding data. Lilly will do well with this product. However, the new pharma holy grail is an ORAL medication with similar efficacy. Pfizer was developing an option, but it S the bed last year.Eli Lilly results blow past estimates on strong Zepbound launch, surging Mounjaro revenue
The quarterly results are the first to include sales of Eli Lilly's new weight loss drug Zepbound, which won FDA approval in early November.www.cnbc.com
Just looked at my account, up 106% on SMCI right now. I'm going to take enough profit today for the upcoming IWM calls I am planning (very bullish on small caps once the cuts come into focus). Hoping to see IWM get below $190. SMCI is looking like a quasi-meme stock! Anyway, I will skim roughly 25% of the position to prep for this future play.
Speaking of NVDA, been reading/hearing that another beat and raise is likely. Good lord that company is a juggernaut!
Thanks for the info. I had a tight stop loss on WOLF when I bought last week and got stopped out already. Happy to jump back soon. I think it will be a good play over the long-term. I'm watching!
Sure. But not "me." It's the state of the company, its technology, and sector opportunity. Now, as for "me"? I'm comfortable with the company's position to excel. Lots of upside. As for timing and "mister market?" That's always challenging. But WOLF's current low makes for a good entry/accumulation point. That said, my take, of course, should never be interpreted as an investment recommendation.
SMCI isn't for me but I agree with your premise. I unfortunately did that with NVDA awhile back (pre-split) and had owned the stock for a long time. Sold off 1/3 and 1/3 tranches and at both points it was extremely hyperbolic like to the moon and beyond. As it was I already being a gluttonous pig lol but I didn't want to be even moreso. Now it's gone to a galaxy far far away lol but who is to know that and all this AI boom. What to do.
In hindsight it sucks but I think it was the prudent thing to do at the time. Besides while I thought it was a good company it’s also partly dumb luck I stumbled on to the behemoth it’s become. You don't go broke taking profits, especially massive ones. The last 1/3 I've let ride and that's been fun lol.
NVDA is cheaper now than it was at $125 a year ago. That's insane! :)
No one an ever criticize you for taking profits. Pigs get slaughtered. I bought NVDA at 280, sold it at 382. I left thousands on the table but have also been burned by holding stocks too long and turning green to black because I was greedy
I'm just Joe Retail Nobody but that's the thing too for newer (not referring to you but just in general) retail investors/traders to learn. You don't have to buy into a position all at once nor sell it all at once. These days you don't even pay commissions, not that it should matter to prudent decision making. So whatever amount of money you're willing to put into something you can buy into something in 1/2s, 1/3s, 1/4s or what have you and sell out of it similar fashion as well.
Even the last 1/3 I have, I don't have to sell the whole 1/3 if I want to take a profit again. I've gotten more shares after the split too so it's even easier to trim off a small portion for profit taking.
There's no rule of how to buy into something or how to sell out of it. No one can know for sure where a bottom will happen or where the top will happen so buying and selling in piecemeal fashion is sound strategy imo.
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