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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

RU-05 said:
Question was a legit(ie non rhetorical/argumentative).

Those fee's are in core, and they not in PCE?
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Sorry my answer wasn't clear. I don't know the answer to your question it was I should have said.

Been reading a bunch of comments from analyst and this number has taken everyone by surprise. They are all basically saying they have no idea what tomorrow's number will look like. Combine that with it being the last Friday of the month, today and tomorrow could be very interesting days in the markets.
 
RUDead said:
Sorry my answer wasn't clear. I don't know the answer to your question it was I should have said.

Been reading a bunch of comments from analyst and this number has taken everyone by surprise. They are all basically saying they have no idea what tomorrow's number will look like. Combine that with it being the last Friday of the month, today and tomorrow could be very interesting days in the markets.
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Interesting how we are seeing major balloon ups in these very specific segments, car insurance a month ago, asset mgmt fee's here, tweak the numbers.

Of course if we continue to see this from numerous segments over a longer period of time, it's akin to slower, consistent, more wide spread inflation.
 
we are heading into a season that sees lots of organic spending and heavy travel
there will be no rate cuts this year
 

Something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately​




88cWe4c.png
 
ashokan said:

Something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately​




88cWe4c.png
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yup, discussed quite a bit except on liberal news stations. from November until now, the economy actually lost almost 2mm full time jobs which is the more than any time since 2009 blow up.

we have rising prices and weak employment

what is amazing is that some still refuse to accept that you can't borrow your way to prosperity and you can't have a service economy remain healthy when you don't produce anything for a real balance of goods exchange.

needs fixing
 
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RU-05 said:
Interesting how we are seeing major balloon ups in these very specific segments, car insurance a month ago, asset mgmt fee's here, tweak the numbers.

Of course if we continue to see this from numerous segments over a longer period of time, it's akin to slower, consistent, more wide spread inflation.
Click to expand...

That's why it's interesting to look at the components but you need to focus on the big picture.
 
RUDead said:
That's why it's interesting to look at the components but you need to focus on the big picture.
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True, but the overall big picture is a downward trend.

Question now is this a blip in the trend, or signs of a change in trend.

Oil prices jumping suggest it could be the latter.
 
RU-05 said:
True, but the overall big picture is a downward trend.

Question now is this a blip in the trend, or signs of a change in trend.

Oil prices jumping suggest it could be the latter.
Click to expand...

It's been a three month blip but agree still too early to tell. Personally I think we are bouncing off the lows of inflation and we continue to head higher from here.

Who knows what we see tomorrow but we will get another data point.
 
RUTGERS95 said:
yup, discussed quite a bit except on liberal news stations. from November until now, the economy actually lost almost 2mm full time jobs which is the more than any time since 2009 blow up.

we have rising prices and weak employment

what is amazing is that some still refuse to accept that you can't borrow your way to prosperity and you can't have a service economy remain healthy when you don't produce anything for a real balance of goods exchange.

needs fixing
Click to expand...


EJ Antoni of Heritage (he's been calling everything right for 3 years) says jobs were overestimated by over 800,000 (deemed "insane" by EJ).

Gov borrows 600 billion to show 300 billion for GDP - future payments at increased rates = huge taxes .
Operative word is "stagflation"

 
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RUDead said:
It's been a three month blip but agree still too early to tell. Personally I think we are bouncing off the lows of inflation and we continue to head higher from here.

Who knows what we see tomorrow but we will get another data point.
Click to expand...
Blip was probably not the right term. Short term counter trend would be better put.
 
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RUDead said:
It's been a three month blip but agree still too early to tell. Personally I think we are bouncing off the lows of inflation and we continue to head higher from here.

Who knows what we see tomorrow but we will get another data point.
Click to expand...
Core inflation is only over 2% due to car insurance and bad math on shelter. Otherwise, we are well below the Fed target. Car insurance is a lagged affect from the car price spike during COVID and awful drivers. Nothing the Fed can do about that.

Truflation still below 2%.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Core inflation is only over 2% due to car insurance and bad math on shelter. Otherwise, we are well below the Fed target. Car insurance is a lagged affect from the car price spike during COVID and awful drivers. Nothing the Fed can do about that.

Truflation still below 2%.
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Truflation sits at 2.28%. But yeah I don’t get the inflation panic other than the fact a lot of it is political. 2% has never been a magic number and maybe 2.49% is the new 2…
 
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Knight Owl said:
Truflation sits at 2.28%. But yeah I don’t get the inflation panic other than the fact a lot of it is political. 2% has never been a magic number and maybe 2.49% is the new 2…
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Any inflation below 3% is perfectly fine, especially with wages growing.
 
RU-05 said:
Intc though….
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FYI, speaking of rough. My daughter is in the same class as the new BMY CEO's daughter. They have been friends for years. He has a lot of cleaning up to do. I want to buy and show support, but not yet. LOL!

Also, my leap PFE calls not so hot, but plenty of time to go.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
FYI, speaking of rough. My daughter is in the same class as the new BMY CEO's daughter. They have been friends for years. He has a lot of cleaning up to do. I want to buy and show support, but not yet. LOL!

Also, my leap PFE calls not so hot, but plenty of time to go.
Click to expand...
Merck is smoking them fools
 
RU-05 said:
Intc though….
Click to expand...
I think last time it dropped I said mid high 20s is a decent area of support and it bounced from there and I think there’s a good chance it’s headed there again.

I brought it up recently as a long slog play but again not unless it’s in that area. It doesn’t even have a decent dividend anymore to pay you while you wait. It’s sort of a dead money with the hope of a nice payoff years down the line but who knows with the management. They never seem to get the executive suite right. TSMC building facilities here too so will they still keep share anyway even if not a US company. They need to find their Lisa Su but who knows if they ever will.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
FYI, speaking of rough. My daughter is in the same class as the new BMY CEO's daughter. They have been friends for years. He has a lot of cleaning up to do. I want to buy and show support, but not yet. LOL!

Also, my leap PFE calls not so hot, but plenty of time to go.
Click to expand...
BMY has been hovering around long term MA support that hasn't broken in 12 years and it's currently below it. This low to mid 40s area is also support. It needs to hold this area or mid 30s can come into play.

Currently they don't seem much better than PFE. Not nearly enough new drugs and patent losses.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
BMY has been hovering around long term MA support that hasn't broken in 12 years and it's currently below it. This low to mid 40s area is also support. It needs to hold this area or mid 30s can come into play.

Currently they don't seem much better than PFE. Not nearly enough new drugs and patent losses.
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Yes, due to BMY patent issues, I'm more confident of a PFE turnaround. Got some PFE Jan 2026 $30 calls.
 
PCE core YoY comes in the lowest since early 2021. Keeps creeping lower. The seasonal noise from Jan and Feb didn't impact March. Very good sign.

Life is good!
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
I think last time it dropped I said mid high 20s is a decent area of support and it bounced from there and I think there’s a good chance it’s headed there again.

I brought it up recently as a long slog play but again not unless it’s in that area. It doesn’t even have a decent dividend anymore to pay you while you wait. It’s sort of a dead money with the hope of a nice payoff years down the line but who knows with the management. They never seem to get the executive suite right. TSMC building facilities here too so will they still keep share anyway even if not a US company. They need to find their Lisa Su but who knows if they ever will.
Click to expand...
It's a lagging indicator but INTC is also approaching a potential death cross. If it happens definitively and stays that way, I'd expect more downside. Last couple of times it happened a bottom wasn't put in until months to over a year out.

Analyst PTs cut to the mid 30s-40, one even a sell with a 17 PT. Down about 50% since Gelsinger took over in 2021. Where is the Larry Culp of semidconductors lol.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Any inflation below 3% is perfectly fine, especially with wages growing.
Click to expand...
And truflation has shown “food at home” inflation to be continuously under 2% since just after Thanksgiving ‘23.
Food away from home is still over 4%…and has stayed somewhat elevated after coming down from the highs.
 
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Knight Owl said:
And truflation has shown “food at home” inflation to be continuously under 2% since just after Thanksgiving ‘23.
Food away from home is still over 4%…and has stayed somewhat elevated after coming down from the highs.
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what fking planet do you live on?
 
Nice way to end the week. Powerful earnings and a PCE report the market liked. Inflation continues to creep lower and lower.
 
Good discussions on earnings reactions to Meta (5:20 mark) and Tesla (22:20). They relate it to betting terms using sharps vs squares. My favorite quote on Tesla- “it’s the difference between what sharp investors analyze and the media breathlessly exaggerates” in terms over the performance on the overall roadmap at a -40% buying opportunity.

 
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