OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Sure. Roller coaster ride. This stock is not for those who need quick $$$. Give it a few years.
Surely not for the squeamish. I'm a believer, yes, in the technology and the potential. But my investment in WOLF is small, percentage-wise, relative to my overall portfolio. Good friends with three of the five founders, I was in on the original IPO of Cree Research, which became Cree. That LED/lighting division was spun off and sold off, and the remaining company became Wolfspeed, a play on its origins at NC State via the school's Materials Science department.
Another one not for me but haven’t seen this once mentioned for quite awhile, not a surprise though considering the performance lol.
CAVA with a huge beat today. This will be a nice 40+% return in under 3 weeks since purchase. I am trying to decide if I should sell upside calls or outright sell my stake. I'll see where options sit tomorrow.
Not sure I trust this company as an investment yet. I bought it in early 2022 and then sold it later that year for around $175 incurring a modest loss. Never like what I hear from leadership on their earnings calls and glad I got out. I put the $ into CAVA and PLTR and have more than made up for the losses in SNOW which continued its descent.
It is not worth putting new money into software companies especially ones that work in the "cloud". It remains to be seen whether AI will replace most if not al of the functions of those companies. I have divested off CRM. I have reduced my holding of SNOW and will eventually divest off it as well (for a loss, I am sure). If it ever seems like these software companies find a niche in the AI world, I will jump back in.
NOW is still doing very well and I own CRM, but a smaller position. As for SNOW, love their product but understand there may be downside pressure in software for a while.
Any thoughts on home builders or construction (since rates will start heading down)?
NOW is a really good company. Unfortunately, I don't own any of it. I missed it just like I missed out on NFLX.
I don't invest in home builders.
I'm super growth/tech focused, so I am trying to look for other opportunities to diversify a bit. Got some biotech and HC since that's what I do. I've owned NOW and NFLX for the past 12-18 months (thanks to Tom Lee and his team). Outstanding companies.
Gov agencies post-up exaggerated nonsense for headlines and then they quietly slip the more realistic digits later-on. Its been easy to see this (like "Ukraine is winning!" when its decimated)
"..the economy is adding nowhere near as many jobs as previously thought. But few people are bothering to look behind the curtain and find these important details. Instead, the initial estimates of blockbuster job growth get plenty of media attention each month, followed by silence when more comprehensive—but less impressive—numbers follow.
But these new figures help explain the disconnect between supposedly strong job creation and poor economic polling. Economists have been left scratching their heads, wondering how to square the circle of these contradictory indicators. The simple answer is that the labor market is rather anemic, and people are being honest about their feelings about the economy."
Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half
The labor market increasingly resembles the imposing visage of the Wizard of Oz, with disappointment behind the curtain. Just look at the latest job numbers. Recent data indicate the economy added about half as many jobs at the end of last year as previously estimated. No wonder many Americans...
www.heritage.org
Couldn't have asked for anything more from Powell:
Fed's Powell says 'time has come' to lower interest rates
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday offered an explicit endorsement of interest rate cuts, saying further cooling in the job market would be unwelcome and expressing confidence that inflation was within reach of the U.S. central bank's 2% target.
"The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased," Powell said in a highly anticipated speech to the Kansas City Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
Fed's Powell says 'time has come' to lower interest rates
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday offered an explicit endorsement of interest rate cuts, saying further cooling in the job market would be unwelcome and expressing confidence that inflation was within reach of the U.S. central bank's 2% target.
"The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased," Powell said in a highly anticipated speech to the Kansas City Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
I told myself I wasn’t going to do it, but I bought CRWD this morning.
Also sold SNOW taking a loss. I’m sure SNOW will bounce just to piss me off but i started to realize these enterprise software companies are a dime a dozen and i don’t know enough about their sales and product pipeline to make educated investments. I suspect most will at some point be praying for IBM or the hyperscalers to cash out the execs.
Also sold SNOW taking a loss. I’m sure SNOW will bounce just to piss me off but i started to realize these enterprise software companies are a dime a dozen and i don’t know enough about their sales and product pipeline to make educated investments. I suspect most will at some point be praying for IBM or the hyperscalers to cash out the execs.
What would have happened if the jobs reports were lower? They would have lower the interest rates maybe in Jan-March instead of Sept 2024? Inflation would have gone down with lower interest rates? I don’t see any negatives. I was hoping for interest rates to go down earlier for the stock market. Why did everyone think we were going to have a recession for the last two years and it didn’t happen? How did Biden prevent a recession for two years, never saw that happen before, what policies worked?Gov agencies post-up exaggerated nonsense for headlines and then they quietly slip the more realistic digits later-on. Its been easy to see this (like "Ukraine is winning!" when its decimated)
"..the economy is adding nowhere near as many jobs as previously thought. But few people are bothering to look behind the curtain and find these important details. Instead, the initial estimates of blockbuster job growth get plenty of media attention each month, followed by silence when more comprehensive—but less impressive—numbers follow.
But these new figures help explain the disconnect between supposedly strong job creation and poor economic polling. Economists have been left scratching their heads, wondering how to square the circle of these contradictory indicators. The simple answer is that the labor market is rather anemic, and people are being honest about their feelings about the economy."
Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half
The labor market increasingly resembles the imposing visage of the Wizard of Oz, with disappointment behind the curtain. Just look at the latest job numbers. Recent data indicate the economy added about half as many jobs at the end of last year as previously estimated. No wonder many Americans...
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CRWD is in a sub-sector that is one fire and will remain so (cybersecurity). I own CRWD, PANW, and ZS.
Not a good day for SNOW, relative to the market rally.
First recommendation, remove Gelsinger. Might not be a bad thing if an activist is involved.
Hope you don't take Antoni's lead in terms of market investment.Gov agencies post-up exaggerated nonsense for headlines and then they quietly slip the more realistic digits later-on. Its been easy to see this (like "Ukraine is winning!" when its decimated)
"..the economy is adding nowhere near as many jobs as previously thought. But few people are bothering to look behind the curtain and find these important details. Instead, the initial estimates of blockbuster job growth get plenty of media attention each month, followed by silence when more comprehensive—but less impressive—numbers follow.
But these new figures help explain the disconnect between supposedly strong job creation and poor economic polling. Economists have been left scratching their heads, wondering how to square the circle of these contradictory indicators. The simple answer is that the labor market is rather anemic, and people are being honest about their feelings about the economy."
Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half
The labor market increasingly resembles the imposing visage of the Wizard of Oz, with disappointment behind the curtain. Just look at the latest job numbers. Recent data indicate the economy added about half as many jobs at the end of last year as previously estimated. No wonder many Americans...
S&P up 20% since that Jan 4th tweet.
Nasdaq up about 24%.
I was hoping for at least a little bounce as well.
Maybe money was looking to buy small caps, and thus a stock looking for a rebound wasn't finding buyers?
This one puzzles me, the cry of inflation from the middle class. Most middle class individuals own a house that in most cases appreciated $200,000-500,000 dollars and have a 401k that may have appreciated $200,000-500,000 dollars since Biden has been in office. However, all I hear is the 20-30 cents increase in the price of bread or eggs and they blame Biden. They, Republicans ,don’t blame Biden for their net assets increasing by $300,000-800,000. I can understand the poor that don’t have assets crying about inflation but not the middle class or higher. Just my two cents.
"Most" middle class individuals have 401k accounts that increased by up to 500k since Biden took office? Most??
At least $200-500k but I ‘m special. I guess it depend on your beginning balance. You get my point, complaining about Pennies when your assets going up by hundred of thousands. I use to tell my father to stop worrying about the Pennies and watch the dollars.
A) Politics.
B)A house which you live in going up in value is less tangible then buying food gas etc every week.
C) those without assets are getting hosed(though lower class wages have increased as well), and I think there should be some empathy/sympathy expressed for them.
Inflation with food and gas prices is the main driver of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Why? It's something you see and feel all the time. Ironically, they are both relatively small components of the CPI. People also like to complain about nominal inflation and don't think about real inflation (as in, inflation compared to wage growth). Wage growth essentially negated 75-80% of the cumulative inflation over the past 4 years. Not that big of a deal.
And most middle class homes appreciated 500k? And none occured in 2020 when Trump was in office?
Holy hyperbole Batman!
+1
Value of homes is not liquid, nor that accessible when interest rates are sky high.
I’d be kicking myself if not for the fact that SG is crushing it for me. But I’m going to buy CAVA on a pullback. I’m convinced fast-casual will follow the Chipotle model and grow quickly, leaving sit down and high end dining to suffer.
Ya, I imagine the number of home equity loans have been super low the last 2 years.
Once rates tick down a percent+, I think we see a rush of such loans. There will be a ton of pent up demand, plus a ton of untapped equity.
There are only 337 Cava locations, plenty of room to open new stores. I have never been in one but did look at their menu on line.
The math on this is most middle class individuals have a 401k worth $400k to $1 million. Pretty sure that doesn’t check out.
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