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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Lot of new chains out there that we’ve gotten used to. Kids love Dutch Bros
I trust the new CEO and wouldn't bet against him. Was looking at leap calls for SBUX earlier today, but they seem a bit expensive. If I buy, it will just be shares.
 
These quantum computing stocks just don't take a break. I am hoping for a big correction to get in, but finding a level is getting harder each day. I did start taking profit by selling part my 2024 winners like SOUN, BBAI, TTD, etc. I am not selling PLTR for now.
 
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These quantum computing stocks just don't take a break. I am hoping for a big correction to get in, but finding a level is getting harder each day. I did start taking profit by selling part my 2024 winners like SOUN, BBAI, TTD, etc. I am not selling PLTR for now.
Any thoughts on DDOG? Hoping to get back into PLTR after a pullback. As for the quantum stocks, I understand the hype and momentum, but do many of these companies even have products yet? I need to do some research.
 
Big pop for RIVN today on the delivery report.
Yup, the roller coaster ride continues. My low point buy was $8.50. Still not sure if this should be a trade, or a long hold until R2 model comes out. Today I'm thinking I'll hold (because it's pumping) tomorrow when it's down 10% i'll be kicking myself for not cashing in.
 
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Yup, the roller coaster ride continues. My low point buy was $8.50. Still not sure if this should be a trade, or a long hold until R2 model comes out. Today I'm thinking I'll hold (because it's pumping) tomorrow when it's down 10% i'll be kicking myself for not cashing in.
Why can’t you do both?

You can trade around a core position. I do that for some stocks. Some you hold and the rest you can trade in an out of as appropriate. I usually hold the lowest cost basis shares i acquired.
 
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Big pop for RIVN today on the delivery report.

Yup, the roller coaster ride continues. My low point buy was $8.50. Still not sure if this should be a trade, or a long hold until R2 model comes out. Today I'm thinking I'll hold (because it's pumping) tomorrow when it's down 10% i'll be kicking myself for not cashing in.

Why can’t you do both?

You can trade around a core position. I do that for some stocks. Some you hold and the rest you can trade in an out of as appropriate. I usually hold the lowest cost basis shares i acquired.
Ya. I just trimmed what i added(after I trimmed) a couple weeks.

There is something psychological about holding a core position which makes the trade easier.
 
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I don't love muddying up my taxes and so far all my holdings are short-term so don't love paying full ordinary tax boat on short-term gains.
 
I don't love muddying up my taxes and so far all my holdings are short-term so don't love paying full ordinary tax boat on short-term gains.
Be careful making investment decisions solely on tax considerations. Waiting for LTCG can cost you profits (I've been there). All things being equal, if you're paying taxes on investments, you're making money.
 
Be careful making investment decisions solely on tax considerations. Waiting for LTCG can cost you profits (I've been there). All things being equal, if you're paying taxes on investments, you're making money.
I'm the same. Taxes aren't at the forefront of my mind generally. You're paying taxes because you made a profit. Would you like to pay less, sure but it's not going to guide any trading decision for me.
 
I'm the same. Taxes aren't at the forefront of my mind generally. You're paying taxes because you made a profit. Would you like to pay less, sure but it's not going to guide any trading decision for me.
My personal/fun account is a Fidelity brokerage account. We use TurboTax and Fidelity forms are automatically uploaded, so who cares about "messy" taxes. LOL! However, I do keep an eye on things to make sure I minimize taxes by the end of the year.
 
Be careful making investment decisions solely on tax considerations. Waiting for LTCG can cost you profits (I've been there). All things being equal, if you're paying taxes on investments, you're making money.
If your close to meeting the holding period for long term gain why not set up a stop loss order (though you're not losing) and see if it holds up for the year? If you're a long way away the sell and enjoy the profit.
 
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Do you only buy NJ munis for the double tax benefit? Any unique NJ rules to be aware of? I have been reading about some of the caveats (in general, not just for NJ):

My muni portfolio is nationwide with about 50% being NJ munis. Also, all of my munis are callable. They get me a higher yield to call and yield to maturity then straight muni bonds.
 
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My muni portfolio is nationwide with about 50% being NJ munis. Also, all of my munis are callable. They get me a higher yield to call and yield to maturity then straight muni bonds.
How do you deal with the "De minimis tax" issue with munis. Do you only buy at prices 100 or over? I guess you can go a little lower than 100 based on the duration of the bond without triggering taxes.
 
Do you only buy NJ munis for the double tax benefit? Any unique NJ rules to be aware of? I have been reading about some of the caveats (in general, not just for NJ):

If coupons are the same, NJ, DC and PR offer the highest tax equivalent yield. I do buy other states as long as the credit is good and it hits my tax equivalent yield requirement.
 
Thinking of buying some GM. Just had really good numbers. Looks to be at a support level with a one year+ upward trend in place.

It's also cheap. And there times when that isn't worth the toilet paper I just flushed down my toilet, but with the market as expensive as it is, I am looking for some better values. I don't think this has another 2x in it, but 20 ish % back up to $60 makes sense.

Ford also down near a potential support level. 6% Div. But unlike GM, Ford's chart is downward trending going all the way back to 2022. GM bounced after a similar downward trend last fall, Ford need's to prove itself here before I'd jump in.

But GM I have traded fairly well, selling in the high 50's, after a really good run, so I have a decent grasp on this one.
 
Hawktuah's chart looks to have bottomed.
I think Buffett is starting to add that one. :)

By the way, thinking about two call option plays on WOLF and PATH. WOLF is back at its low and always seems to get a big pop either on hopeful news or meme activities. As for PATH, another crushed stock, been reading articles that they are getting their s back together and can be a solid AI winner over the next year or two (certainly do better than the ultra-low expectations now).
 
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Thinking of buying some GM. Just had really good numbers. Looks to be at a support level with a one year+ upward trend in place.

It's also cheap. And there times when that isn't worth the toilet paper I just flushed down my toilet, but with the market as expensive as it is, I am looking for some better values. I don't think this has another 2x in it, but 20 ish % back up to $60 makes sense.

Ford also down near a potential support level. 6% Div. But unlike GM, Ford's chart is downward trending going all the way back to 2022. GM bounced after a similar downward trend last fall, Ford need's to prove itself here before I'd jump in.

But GM I have traded fairly well, selling in the high 50's, after a really good run, so I have a decent grasp on this one.
Not sure, all pure ICE car companies seem like massive value traps, but GM looks to be the best of the bunch. If you are hoping for only a 20% pop, perhaps leap calls to maximize the return?
 
How do you deal with the "De minimis tax" issue with munis. Do you only buy at prices 100 or over? I guess you can go a little lower than 100 based on the duration of the bond without triggering taxes.
I'm not aware or have seen any de minimus taxes on my returns. Almost all the bonds my advisor purchases are above par, which is fine as long as the yield to call is adequate.
 
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My muni portfolio is nationwide with about 50% being NJ munis. Also, all of my munis are callable. They get me a higher yield to call and yield to maturity then straight muni bonds.
Don’t understand your last sentence. I think you are referring to extension/prepayment risk (discount/prem purchase price). Don’t think call feature alone offers higher yield.
 
I think Buffett is starting to add that one. :)

By the way, thinking about two call option plays on WOLF and PATH. WOLF is back at its low and always seems to get a big pop either on hopeful news or meme activities. As for PATH, another crushed stock, been reading articles that they are getting their s back together and can be a solid AI winner over the next year or two (certainly do better than the ultra-low expectations now).
Anything crushed may have also been feeling the pressure's of being the rare tax loss harvesting options this year.

It fell off my radar the past couple weeks, but I do want to put an eye on WOLF.
 
Don’t understand your last sentence. I think you are referring to extension/prepayment risk (discount/prem purchase price). Don’t think call feature alone offers higher yield.
I guess if a bond has a call feature it's a risk if you buy it over par and need the coupons to get the expected yield. So, if the bond is called back early, your final yield may be lower than hoped. Right?
 
Anything crushed may have also been feeling the pressure's of being the rare tax loss harvesting options this year.

It fell off my radar the past couple weeks, but I do want to put an eye on WOLF.
It's a quasi meme stock, so highly likely to pop again soon. Maybe Jan 2026 calls and sell the next rip? Something like that.
 
I guess if a bond has a call feature it's a risk if you buy it over par and need the coupons to get the expected yield. So, if the bond is called back early, your final yield may be lower than hoped. Right?
Yes, that’s prepayment risk and reverse is extension risk. All broker dealers will show you yield to call and maturity. Always assume you will get the lower yield.
 
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Anything crushed may have also been feeling the pressure's of being the rare tax loss harvesting options this year.

It fell off my radar the past couple weeks, but I do want to put an eye on WOLF.
I don’t follow or trade WOLF and haven’t looked at chart on it lately but if you’re gonna get in somewhere in the mid-high single digits is not a bad place to do it imo. Also be accepting of the fact that it could be money lost. But when your’re down that low, how much more is there to drop outside of bankruptcy. You’d have a pretty good idea of what your losses could be but if you see potential in the company it could be a good to massive gain.

PLTR or SOFI or GE (the one I got in not the other two) in the singles was a good time to get in and then you wait and see and hopefully the potential you saw in the company bears fruit.
 
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Any chart guys want to put eyes on ELF's chart for me. I own it and am down 10%.

On the 3 year it was shot down at a double top, started to recover, but is there a head and shoulders there that I should be wary of?

Shorter term after a sell off it rebounded, but cooled a little, which is fine, if not for the longer term H&S.

Good growth, both backward and fwd looking, and some reasonable metrics.

I want to add given I am down.
 
Don’t understand your last sentence. I think you are referring to extension/prepayment risk (discount/prem purchase price). Don’t think call feature alone offers higher yield.
Callable munis offer higher interest rates because they are callable. Whether or not the yield at call is better then noncallable munis depends on the execution price you're able to get. My guy, who specializes in fixed income (manages about 10 billion dollars) is able to get the bonds at a price that will yield interest income better than standard noncallable munis at the call date. Its not common for him to get these bonds at par or less. They're usually above par but still exceed the noncallable muni yields.
 
The TSLA robot talk had me looking around at other autonomous companies. I've heard of SERV in recent months, and then a couple derivatives of SERV.

SERV, which NVDA invested money in this year, sending the stock on a tear. Micro cap at below $400mil, barely any revenue yet, but that is expected to grow, and if estimates are true (and I've fallen for these estimates before which don't pan out) then it's there could be significant upside in the next couple years. As noted below they don't actually make robots so In California they already deliver for 7-11 they just signed a deal with Uber, for whom SERV will operate(not sell) 2000 delivery robots.

OUST makes the lidar for SERV. Another micro cap. But it does have rev's, is pretty cheap on those rev's at less then 4x, and those rev's have grown nicely, and expected to grow at even better rate looking fwd. Came public during the height of the Covid run, and has tanked since. Not a falling knife though as it has been basing around current levels for a year and a half. Currently a money loser, and that definitely plays into the stock tanking, but I don't think this is a stock which one would expect to make money. Way too early in the process for that.

MGA. A legit company, a "global automotive supplier" that has been in business and actually made money for years. The actual robots for SERV though this is only a drop in the bucket of their overall rev's. Cheap on P/E at 12x, big juicy 4.5% div, not much rev growth, but earnings are expected to grow substantially in the coming years. Chart looks like crap, 60% off Covid, so I'd probably make sure it has bottomed before buying in, but it is below pre Covid levels, and down near 10 year support levels. If it can get those margins/earnings to meet expectations this "should" go up.
This was from Oct. I bought OUST, up 90%. Should have also bought SERV which is up 150%.

I didn't buy MGA which is down a little, and it's one year chart looks bad, but it's all time chart looks pretty good. 4% div. If legacies are doing well, and it's also feeding the likes of OUST and SERV, then that's a decent story.
 
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Callable munis offer higher interest rates because they are callable. Whether or not the yield at call is better then noncallable munis depends on the execution price you're able to get. My guy, who specializes in fixed income (manages about 10 billion dollars) is able to get the bonds at a price that will yield interest income better than standard noncallable munis at the call date. Its not common for him to get these bonds at par or less. They're usually above par but still exceed the noncallable muni yields.
Got it. Yes, callable should offer higher yield because you are giving the issuer an option and the current interest rate environment. That spread will decrease as the rate curve steepens or bonds start to sell at discount.
 
Got it. Yes, callable should offer higher yield because you are giving the issuer an option and the current interest rate environment. That spread will decrease as the rate curve steepens or bonds start to sell at discount.
How often are muni bonds called back?
Also @ScarletNut
 
How often are muni bonds called back?
Also @ScarletNut
It varies. Some within a couple years. I have some that are nearing maturity. My guy is pretty good at analyzing whether or not they’ll be called sooner rather than later. The bonds declare when the next call comes but they aren’t always called at that time. With his experience, he can usually get a feel for when they’ll get called. That’s why for callable munis you need someone experienced in that specialty
 
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