OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[DHajekRC84]

I’d don’t use an advisor, but IMO, they earn their money by keeping losses to a minimum during a downturn. The cost of that - besides paying the advisor - is less upside potential.

See I could buy into that but that is exactly opposite my experience. As I said in my post above I've protected my money WAY better than them. Mine (Howard Capitol - Vance Howard is on Fox Business from time to time) treat me as part of their big one size fits all group and they run on a model and stick to what that model says. In good time they out perform the market 2x. It has been great. Problem is their "Model" didn't react to Covid or this stuff going on since Mid-Feb and they just ride it out vs. someone saying..whoa...this calls for a brake, a pause, or a re-evaluation. So on a 5 year test they are actually uder me and the markets. Not a good look.

When this turns they will grow again at a rate much higher...but so under water it is going to take historic returns to get back home.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

See I could buy into that but that is exactly opposite my experience. As I said in my post above I've protected my money WAY better than them. Mine (Howard Capitol - Vance Howard is on Fox Business from time to time) treat me as part of their big one size fits all group and they run on a model and stick to what that model says. In good time they out perform the market 2x. It has been great. Problem is their "Model" didn't react to Covid or this stuff going on since Mid-Feb and they just ride it out vs. someone saying..whoa...this calls for a brake, a pause, or a re-evaluation. So on a 5 year test they are actually uder me and the markets. Not a good look.

When this turns they will grow again at a rate much higher...but so under water it is going to take historic returns to get back home.

Over the years, when courted by potential advisors asking for a meeting, I'd say sure, as long as you bring along the last three years of your personal tax returns, portfolio statements, and credit reports. Show me how well you manage your own money if you want to manage mine. Never had a followup. LOL.

 

[jtung230]

See I could buy into that but that is exactly opposite my experience. As I said in my post above I've protected my money WAY better than them. Mine (Howard Capitol - Vance Howard is on Fox Business from time to time) treat me as part of their big one size fits all group and they run on a model and stick to what that model says. In good time they out perform the market 2x. It has been great. Problem is their "Model" didn't react to Covid or this stuff going on since Mid-Feb and they just ride it out vs. someone saying..whoa...this calls for a brake, a pause, or a re-evaluation. So on a 5 year test they are actually uder me and the markets. Not a good look.

When this turns they will grow again at a rate much higher...but so under water it is going to take historic returns to get back home.

Can you tell us what is the investment thesis of their model?

 

[DanRU]

I was watching a Warren Buffet interview on CNBC when everything was tanking during the onset of Covid in 2020. He said something to the effect of, "I can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow but I'll guarantee in 10 years the market will be much higher than it is today". I suspect like every other downturn, things will recover and probably fairly quickly even though that's no comfort to anyone that has to sell investments this week.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Over the years, when courted by potential advisors asking for a meeting, I'd say sure, as long as you bring along the last three years of your personal tax returns, portfolio statements, and credit reports. Show me how well you manage your own money if you want to manage mine. Never had a followup. LOL.

They guy I work with actually does almost exactly that. I manage 2/3rds of my portfolio but had a decent enough one that he convinced me to go with this super aggressive plan for the other 1/3 by showing me his results with them. It was impressive and again they ARE impressive during normal times. I just happened to have picked the worst 5 years lol.

And to your point.. when the guys from Fisher, M. Lynch, Edward Jones call I do something just like that. I ask them to produce a look back report to show me exactly were they were and what they did during the turns. Same result. Crickets.

 

[DHajekRC84]

I was watching a Warren Buffet interview on CNBC when everything was tanking during the onset of Covid in 2020. He said something to the effect of, "I can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow but I'll guarantee in 10 years the market will be much higher than it is today". I suspect like every other downturn, things will recover and probably fairly quickly even though that's no comfort to anyone that has to sell investments this week.

True. For some comfort I was looking back to the crash of 1929 just to see the timing on that. It took into the 1950's for it to return to the pre-cash number. I'm not sure if that made me feel better or worse lol.

It has certainly been a wild ride the last 5 years.

 

[rutgersdave]

True. For some comfort I was looking back to the crash of 1929 just to see the timing on that. It took into the 1950's for it to return to the pre-cash number. I'm not sure if that made me feel better or worse lol.

It has certainly been a wild ride the last 5 years.

Well, taking a look at the charts, in year 2000, it took 7 years to get back, or 4/2007, to the 2000 high. In 2007-8, the high was 4/2007, it took 6 years or 1/2013 to get back to high. So if you got out of the market before the drop you had 6-7 years of accelerated returns, over 14% annually, before the market catches up.

Luckily, I had great returns when I got out before 2008 and then got back in, same with the current situation. I retired in 2/2010 and was secure financially after the crash. Looks like Buffett did the same. He was able to bail out the banks in 2008 because he had a lot of cash on the side and now he has a lot of cash on the side to buy stock at an extreme bargain. What a coincidence Buffett loaded up with cash before the crashes. I’ll wait a little before I buy Brk.b because he’ll have great returns the next 7 years.

 

[gmay8]

I personally wouldn’t pay someone 1% per year to manage my investments.
Assuming you’ve got $3M invested. And you’re age 50. And you keep your investor for 20 years. 1% per year for 20 years on $3M and growing, is over $600k you’ve paid to your advisor.

I’d much rather pass that down to my kids

 

[T2Kplus20]

I believe you're talking about a Certified Financial Planner for individual portfolio management vs an active mutual fund or etf manager/management team. ???

If we are talking about fund or active ETF managers, the correct comparison is vs their corresponding index, not necessarily the S&P 500. You may have a fund that tries to beat a sector or subsector. Or maybe a theme or asset allocation fund that includes stocks and bonds.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I personally wouldn’t pay someone 1% per year to manage my investments.
Assuming you’ve got $3M invested. And you’re age 50. And you keep your investor for 20 years. 1% per year for 20 years on $3M and growing, is over $600k you’ve paid to your advisor.

I’d much rather pass that down to my kids

Nowadays, it is so easy to do it yourself and buy indexes for those that want to keep it simple.

 

[ScarletNut]

I’d don’t use an advisor, but IMO, they earn their money by keeping losses to a minimum during a downturn. The cost of that - besides paying the advisor - is less upside potential.

Yes, that’s the purpose of managers, to limit downside

 

[T2Kplus20]

Taiwan president saying positive things. Obviously would be good for semis.

https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/

 

[rutgersdave]

Taiwan president saying positive things. Obviously would be good for semis.

https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/

Taiwan is such a small country, how much can they purchase? The real money is with Canada, China and the EU. I think he better gets deals over with in 1-2 weeks or we definitely going to be in a situation similar to 2008. I think the other countries know this. I read if he going to negotiate then nobody really plans to move factories to the US and create jobs.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Taiwan is such a small country, how much can they purchase? The real money is with Canada, China and the EU. I think he better gets deals over with in 1-2 weeks or we definitely going to be in a situation similar to 2008. I think the other countries know this. I read if he going to negotiate then nobody really plans to move factories to the US and create jobs.

I don't think it is about a country buying more per say, but rather removing their tariffs and having their large companies investing in the US (which TSM is already doing). Also, I'm sure Tawian would be happy to increase they purchasing of military equipment.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yes, that’s the purpose of managers, to limit downside

But if you limit too much upside for too long, you still underperform even if you do better in the bears, so what is the point?

 

[T2Kplus20]

That’s why I switched from 70/30 to 33/67 nine months before retirement in Jan 2022. As of today, my returns are 2.5% higher (over the last 39 months) than if I had 100% in the S&P 500. I sleep very well at night; and had no concern when I trailed the market by 10% last July.

Been reading for a long time about the retirement bucket approach. Whether 2 or 3 buckets of money/assets, overall it makes sense.

The Bucket Approach to Building a Retirement Portfolio

A diversified portfolio with various time frames can help you meet your income needs during retirement.

www.morningstar.com

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Been reading for a long time about the retirement bucket approach. Whether 2 or 3 buckets of money/assets, overall it makes sense.

The Bucket Approach to Building a Retirement Portfolio

A diversified portfolio with various time frames can help you meet your income needs during retirement.

www.morningstar.com

 

[DHajekRC84]

I personally wouldn’t pay someone 1% per year to manage my investments.
Assuming you’ve got $3M invested. And you’re age 50. And you keep your investor for 20 years. 1% per year for 20 years on $3M and growing, is over $600k you’ve paid to your advisor.

I’d much rather pass that down to my kids

you're assuming the 1% didn't get you better returns than you would have gotten otherwise. If so, true. If not and you find somebody that can get you more than you'd have even more to leave or spend. Somebody just getting you an extra 1% (net) compounded over that period is WAY more . Well that's the math. Reality is a different story. Finding that person is the key.

I've always been looking for that person who would make a custom deal. Something like you guarantee me at least the market AND I never lose money and I will split the upside to whatever I make over the market with them.

 

[Caliknight]

What was the Republican reaction?

To do it. But it was all talk until now. Looks like the stock market boomerang might happen faster than we thought.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-06/vietnam-offers-to-remove-all-tariffs-on-us-after-trump-action?embedded-checkout=true

 

[rutgersdave]

Chartmasters, what is the next support level for S &P? I have my idea, it’s not pretty but want your level.

 

[rutgersdave]

Yes, that’s the purpose of managers, to limit downside

I use the robo advisors at Fidelity and Schwab for some portion of my money and in up market tends to do the same as me. However, down market, it doesn’t react as quick as me and I perform much better than the Robo advisors. I had to close the Schwab down so I can manage it again and wish I did the same with Fidelity.

 

[ScarletNut]

I use the robo advisors at Fidelity and Schwab for some portion of my money and in up market tends to do the same as me. However, down market, it doesn’t react as quick as me and I perform much better than the Robo advisors. I had to close the Schwab down so I can manage it again and wish I did the same with Fidelity.

That’s why I posted my manager’s 3 bucket approach earlier in this thread which has given me the income I wanted and grown my principal far better than the market on both the down and upside. Well worth the 1% he gets.

 

[jtung230]

Taiwan president saying positive things. Obviously would be good for semis.

https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/

That’s interesting. I thought Tiawan is part of China.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Chartmasters, what is the next support level for S &P? I have my idea, it’s not pretty but want your level.

TA and support are irrelevant in these times. Only policy and events matter. News/details will be changing every day, perhaps every few hours. We are one tweet away from a face-ripping rally back to ATHs and one tweet away from even worse chaos. Enjoy! :)

And as per that news, Trump officials talking tough this morning on the various shows, but everyone is touting that 50 countries have called to negotiate. So.....the process is ongoing.

 

[rutgersdave]

TA and support are irrelevant in these times. Only policy and events matter. News/details will be changing every day, perhaps every few hours. We are one tweet away from a face-ripping rally back to ATHs and one tweet away from even worse chaos. Enjoy! :)

And as per that news, Trump officials talking tough this morning on the various shows, but everyone is touting that 50 countries have called to negotiate. So.....the process is ongoing.

I’m an amateur but my chart tells me around 4,500

 

[rutgersdave]

That’s interesting. I thought Tiawan is part of China.

You must be part of the CCP. Lol, China wants everybody to think like you

 

[rutgersdave]

CNBC host Jim Cramer warns of ‘Black Monday’ market crash over Trump tariffs rivaling record 1987 collapse

CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer warned that America was in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the one of 1987 if President Trump does nothing to reel i…

nypost.com

I didn’t know Cramer followed me on this board

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’m an amateur but my chart tells me around 4,500

I have grown to appreciate TA way more than I expected, but TA is always "trumped" by significant events and news. TA is awesome for when you have a normal level of happenings and the market can just do what it does.

 

[RU-05]

TA and support are irrelevant in these times. Only policy and events matter. News/details will be changing every day, perhaps every few hours. We are one tweet away from a face-ripping rally back to ATHs and one tweet away from even worse chaos. Enjoy! :)

And as per that news, Trump officials talking tough this morning on the various shows, but everyone is touting that 50 countries have called to negotiate. So.....the process is ongoing.

I wouldn't say irrelevant. But these events can certainly break support and resistance levels.

 

[RU-05]

CNBC host Jim Cramer warns of ‘Black Monday’ market crash over Trump tariffs rivaling record 1987 collapse

CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer warned that America was in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the one of 1987 if President Trump does nothing to reel i…

nypost.com

I didn’t know Cramer followed me on this board

Sticking to you 15-20% call?

It's literally never happened. Edit: happened once. Black Monday 1987. Only day ever where the market was down more then 13%.

 

[rutgersdave]

Sticking to you 15-20% call?

It's literally never happened.

It’s going be a bigger down day than Thur or Friday. I find it funny VK91 saying his broker called him Friday to get approval for selling stocks and Caliknight agreed his advisor did the same. I think a couple brokers contacted their clients over the weekend. I’ll be buying but I probably have a year to make the decisions.

Be like T2K and you should have been fully invested the last couple of months. Your prediction is a up day on Monday?

 

[Vlife]

Sticking to you 15-20% call?

It's literally never happened.

I'm offering no opinion on what will happen tomorrow but the S&P500 did fall 20% on Black Monday Oct 19, 1987 after falling 5% on Friday Oct 16. It had peaked in August 1987 and by the close on Oct 19 was about 33% off that August peak

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Sticking to you 15-20% call?

It's literally never happened.

Not making a call, but will not be surprised to see a 15-20% sell-off this week.

 

[RU-05]

I'm offering no opinion on what will happen tomorrow but the S&P500 did fall 20% on Black Monday Oct 19, 1987 after falling 5% on Friday Oct 16. It had peaked in August 1987 and by the close on Oct 19 was about 33% off that August peak

My bad. I did look this up just a bit earlier in the thread. That is the lone day where the market has dropped more then 13% in the history of the market.

Black Friday was in my head, but obviously that's a different thing.

 

[RU-05]

Not making a call, but will not be surprised to see a 15-20% sell-off this week.

Seems pretty extreme coming off a 10% week.

But his call was 15-20% on Monday. Happens a lot he said.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sticking to you 15-20% call?

It's literally never happened.

Ackman weighs in:

Billionaire Bill Ackman ‘Would Not Be Surprised to Wake Up Monday’ to Hear Trump Is Postponing Tariffs After Several Key Countries Offer to Cut Deals

MSN

 

[RU-05]

It’s going be a bigger down day than Thur or Friday. I find it funny VK91 saying his broker called him Friday to get approval for selling stocks and Caliknight agreed his advisor did the same. I think a couple brokers contacted their clients over the weekend. I’ll be buying but I probably have a year to make the decisions.

Be like T2K and you should have been fully invested the last couple of months. Your prediction is a up day on Monday?

VK91 also said he had a great day in the market on Thursday.........

My prediction is it will not be a bigger down day then Thur or Friday.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Crypto joining the party with a Sunday nuke. Everyone seems to be very much on edge heading into tomorrow

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Not the ones who got margin calls.

Like the Gamestop shenanigans?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Crypto joining the party with a Sunday nuke. Everyone seems to be very much on edge heading into tomorrow

I wouldn't mind buying more BTC. Are you watching for any specific levels?