ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

People with the right amount of capital and positioning stand to make a lot of money in this market.
I only have about 5-10% of my portfolios in cash and just watching them bleed
 
GoodOl'Rutgers said:
My wild-assed guess is that, if we, America, shows some tolerance for pain with these tarriffs the rest of the world will give us deals that are more fair and we can back off. That would be a huge plus for the future. I also think the rest of teh world will just then wait until the next weak/corrupt/stupid president and hammer him/her for concessions.
Click to expand...
Well the current one that fits your description says he is not going to leave - so there is that, I guess
 
Futures pulling back considerably off their premarket lows, did any news drop? Not really seeing anything but DOW has clawed back almost 800 points.
 
Jim Cramer warning we could see another Black Monday, like in 1987 tomorrow; DOW futures down 1000 and Asian markets down 5-10% so far today. And the POTUS said tonight, "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something. We have to solve the trade deficit with China. We have a trillion-dollar trade deficit, hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose with China. And unless we solve that problem, I am not going to make a deal." No comment, just reporting.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/us-...etimes-you-have-to-take-medicine-19585396.htm

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235220-us-stocks-tariff-impact/

CNBC host Jim Cramer even warned of the possibility that an event similar to “Black Monday” could occur, a reference to the market collapse of 1987, if Trump sticks to his tariff plans. That event saw the Dow drop 22.6 percent in one day.

“If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22 percent on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, per the New York Post.
 
RU848789 said:
Jim Cramer warning we could see another Black Monday, like in 1987 tomorrow; DOW futures down 1000 and Asian markets down 5-10% so far today. And the POTUS said tonight, "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something. We have to solve the trade deficit with China. We have a trillion-dollar trade deficit, hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose with China. And unless we solve that problem, I am not going to make a deal." No comment, just reporting.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/us-...etimes-you-have-to-take-medicine-19585396.htm

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235220-us-stocks-tariff-impact/

CNBC host Jim Cramer even warned of the possibility that an event similar to “Black Monday” could occur, a reference to the market collapse of 1987, if Trump sticks to his tariff plans. That event saw the Dow drop 22.6 percent in one day.

“If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22 percent on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, per the New York Post.
Click to expand...
old news bro
rutgersdave said:
nypost.com

CNBC host Jim Cramer warns of ‘Black Monday’ market crash over Trump tariffs rivaling record 1987 collapse

CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer warned that America was in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the one of 1987 if President Trump does nothing to reel i…
nypost.com nypost.com

I didn’t know Cramer followed me on this board
Click to expand...
 
jtung230 said:
They shouldn’t. They should build a portfolio for you with the right stock and fixed income portfolio. I find their value in tax strategy and fixed income.
Click to expand...
I worded it poorly. The pool of stocks they purchase underperform the S&P 500. So the point being, if their risk profile is 60% stocks 40% bonds, putting the 60% in the S&P will outperform most stock portfolios designed by financial advisers.

Same a mutual funds that are invested in stocks. These funds are managed by so called “experts”. But, a high majority of these managers underperform the S&P 500.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: thegock
drewbagel423 said:
Going to be *another* ugly day you mean. Has anyone seen this many -5% days in such a short period of time before?

Has Tom Lee called the bottom again this week yet?
Click to expand...
Cramer mentioned 1987 and 2008. It’s that bad. Tom Lee is now someone that had his day in the sun and joins Cathy Woods, Henry Blodget and Meredith Whitney as someone people use to follow.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: drewbagel423, BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine and thegock
RUBlackout said:
People with the right amount of capital and positioning stand to make a lot of money in this market.
I only have about 5-10% of my portfolios in cash and just watching them bleed
Click to expand...
My portfolio was 75/25 before the selloff. Now it’s 70/30 with no change to the actual cash/fixed income I hold. I’m not making any big buys yet. Too many unknowns/risks to add. Also not stopping the auto monthly purchases either.
 
Bought some more HOOD and PLTR

Moved some money from my etrade high interest savings to my equity account. Eyeing that TQQQ trade. Down more then 50% in a couple months. May even buy some calls.
 
RU-05 said:
Bought some more HOOD and PLTR

Moved some money from my etrade high interest savings to my equity account. Eyeing that TQQQ trade. Down more then 50% in a couple months. May even buy some calls.
Click to expand...
Investor’s confidence has been eroded. Don’t think it will snap back. Maybe it stops the bleeding.
 
  • Like
Reactions: drewbagel423 and RU205
RU-05 said:
Bought some more HOOD and PLTR

Moved some money from my etrade high interest savings to my equity account. Eyeing that TQQQ trade. Down more then 50% in a couple months. May even buy some calls.
Click to expand...

“If these tariffs (in current form/rates) hold there is no debate... it would set the U.S. tech world back a decade in our opinion while China is the clear winner... and we see no debate,” Ives said in a client note.

“The U.S. is 4% of the world’s population and 26% of its GDP because of the U.S. consumer... and we ultimately believe one of the biggest assets in this country is the U.S. tech world and Silicon Valley.”

Ives pointed to the progress made by American tech firms in artificial intelligence, naming companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), OpenAI, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).


“For the first time in 30 years the U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to AI and this 4th Industrial Revolution,” he said.

But in one day this tariff policy if enacted will create an upside down supply chain, massive costs, major CapEx delays due to uncertainty, and slow down U.S. tech innovation... not a debate.”

Drawing on more than two decades covering the sector, Ives called the proposed tariff move “the biggest debacle ever seen in the markets” and labeled it “purely self-inflicted by Trump.”

“It’s very easy to say ‘build in America’ behind a microphone in the Beltway,” he added. “The reality is so much different it’s almost a scary concept.

It takes 4–5 years to build a factory in the U.S., the U.S. labor force and cost structure goes against the entire concept of the modern supply chain.”

Ives warned that 50% tariffs on Chinese imports and 32% on Taiwanese goods could effectively shut off the U.S. tech sector from critical supply lines.

“iPhones made in the U.S. would cost $3,500 (vs. $1,000), and the AI Revolution trade would be significantly slowed down,” he said.
 
  • Like
Reactions: drewbagel423 and xWVU2010x
RU-05 said:
Bought some more HOOD and PLTR

Moved some money from my etrade high interest savings to my equity account. Eyeing that TQQQ trade. Down more then 50% in a couple months. May even buy some calls.
Click to expand...
CNBC CEO survey with 2/3s thinking recession this year or next, 1/2 thinking moderate or severe recession and 1/3 saying they will have to have layoffs this year.

I've been looking at some of big tech (Euro retaliation on them always possible but might be getting priced in) again after not really looking at much it since the big run up over the last few years. I haven't bought any of them yet but willing to put that first foot in soon for some of them and somewhat lower for others. Then have looked at areas to add more if they drop even further. Don't need any quick V recoveries or snap back, just as long as they turn somewhere down the line I'm good.

Whether it's tech or any other sector, for me I don't generally see the need to go too far out on the risk curve in terms of names (I don't usually go far that out anyway). Stick with the crown jewel names for whatever sector as imo those would be the ones to handle whatever turbulence best and come out on the other side.
 
  • Like
Reactions: drewbagel423
rutgersdave said:
Cramer mentioned 1987 and 2008. It’s that bad. Tom Lee is now someone that had his day in the sun and joins Cathy Woods, Henry Blodget and Meredith Whitney as someone people use to follow.
Click to expand...
Probably one of the dumbest posts in this thread. Nobody has been right about Trump as of now. Nobody predicted this accurately.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1
rutgersguy1 said:
CNBC CEO survey with 2/3s thinking recession this year or next, 1/2 thinking moderate or severe recession and 1/3 saying they will have to have layoffs this year.

I've been looking at some of big tech (Euro retaliation on them always possible but might be getting priced in) again after not really looking at much it since the big run up over the last few years. I haven't bought any of them yet but willing to put that first foot in soon for some of them and somewhat lower for others. Then have looked at areas to add more if they drop even further. Don't need any quick V recoveries or snap back, just as long as they turn somewhere down the line I'm good.

Whether it's tech or any other sector, for me I don't generally see the need to go too far out on the risk curve in terms of names (I don't usually go far that out anyway). Stick with the crown jewel names for whatever sector as imo those would be the ones to handle whatever turbulence best and come out on the other side.
Click to expand...
HOOD is a very good buy and is becoming the Schwab/Fidelity of Gen Z and younger Millennials. Their CBO was on with The Compound on Friday (linked above). Very impressive.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
HOOD is a very good buy and is becoming the Schwab/Fidelity of Gen Z and younger Millennials. Their CBO was on with The Compound on Friday (linked above). Very impressive.
Click to expand...
That's probably true to a degree and it's approaching its 200DMA. We'll see if that holds, it has held a couple times in the last year. Areas in the 10s-low20s are more attractive imo if its a name that you like.
 
rutgersdave said:
It takes 4–5 years to build a factory in the U.S., the U.S. labor force and cost structure goes against the entire concept of the modern supply chain.”
Click to expand...

This is one of the biggest takeaways in terms of what the average American does not grasp. Anyone who has worked for a company that sells a tangible product with a supply chain knows that you cannot just create a factory overnight. Shoot even if you have a fully functioning factory, hitting it with out of nowhere insanely large purchase orders does not mean the factory has the workforce/capacity to fill it. Think about Covid, why was there such a scarce supply of tests for so long? Because factories that make the tests were suddenly being hit with POs far beyond their capacity, those companies to fill those probably had to open up multiple new facilities and train thousands of workers at warp speed to fill those orders within the calendar year.

So assuming a scenario where a company does not have a factory here, committing to putting one here, staffing it, training a workforce, and getting the raw materials takes a significant amount of time and resources, and it also is a gamble that the next administration (or even this one given how much they flip flop) won’t roll back the tariffs and make the investment all for not.

All companies that make tangible products do not have a clear path to win right now, they are simply stunned/frozen with uncertainty.
 
  • Like
Reactions: zazoo2002, drewbagel423 and ScarletNut
RUinPinehurst said:
You closely follow Lee. What's his latest view?
Click to expand...
From this morning (they also scheduled a special webinar for after the close today):

We want to apologize as the terms of tariff Liberation Day were far worse than we expected. The resulting market fury is not due to a reaction to a trade war, but rather, in our view, the fact the White House broke a core covenant of capitalism — stable and predictable regulatory environment. Companies are now facing massive amounts of stranded capital, or capital to earn a lower return. That said, stocks are too far stretched to the downside, while recession risks are excessively priced. Hence, while we do not know when stocks will bottom, the following analysis argues investors need to see the positive risk/reward of being patient.

The market has been under notable pressure following the adverse developments tied to the so-called “Tariff Liberation Day,” which was far more disruptive than initially expected. The sharp sell-off in equities wasn’t merely due to escalating trade war fears but stemmed from what appeared to be a fundamental breach of capitalism’s regulatory covenant. The White House’s sudden and aggressive executive orders left companies without the predictability they need to recoup capital investments, prompting vocal corporate backlash. A striking example is AAPL -7.38% , which is facing a 54% increase in production costs—effectively nationalizing a third of its assets by redirecting its gross margins into tariff revenues.
  • The aftermath of Tariff Liberation Day has ignited strong corporate resistance.
    • Companies are not reacting solely to tariffs, but to the perceived betrayal of a stable regulatory framework essential for long-term investment and planning.
    • The suddenness of the executive orders left supply chains stranded, particularly those redirected away from China during Trump 1.0.
    • This dislocation is material: capital invested in building diversified manufacturing operations is now at risk. AAPL -7.38% ’s case illustrates the extremity, with their cost of production jumping sharply due to tariffs that essentially siphon off their profits.
  • Despite this upheaval, there are clear signs the situation could de-escalate in the coming days. Several developments point to a potential easing of tensions.
    • For one, the EU has expressed a desire to give negotiations time before retaliating, while also preparing a list of countermeasures.
    • In addition, multiple countries have reached out to the White House offering concessions.
    • A delay in implementing the reciprocal tariffs—potentially by 90 days—is also under consideration, with public endorsements from Lloyd Blankfein and Bill Ackman.
    • Furthermore, Trump may make conciliatory remarks or the UK could announce a mutual concession.
  • The White House’s alignment with Main Street does not imply it wants a market crash. While some interpret recent moves as favoring Main Street at Wall Street’s expense, this may be a misread.
    • Trump has emphasized he does not seek a market sell-off and that markets sometimes need to “take medicine.”
    • However, continued equity weakness erodes his negotiating power with China, which publicly celebrated Friday’s U.S. market decline.
    • Policymakers recognize this, and the administration is floating supportive measures for consumers—such as eliminating taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime, as well as making domestic car loan interest deductible.
  • Although PolyMarket shows a 66% chance of a recession, we believe the probability remains low. Recession risks remain overblown due to significant offsets that cushion the tariff blow. Consider:
    • Main Street vs. Wall Street: the burden of tariffs is likely to fall more on producers than consumers, blunting their macroeconomic impact.
    • Oil has fallen from $70 and Mark Newton thinks it could go down to $50 – saving up to $150 billion.
    • There are lower floating interest rates and consumer debt of $3T. That’s 35 billion dollars of savings.
    • Rate fluctuations could lead to Mortgage rates dropping 100 basis points. That’s 125 billion.
    • Surprising math, but these offsets may fully counterbalance the tariff impact on households.
  • From a tactical perspective, markets are deeply oversold and ripe for a reversal.
    • Mark Newton notes that while technicals haven’t yet confirmed a bottom, positioning is highly washed out. Long/short net leverage is at 2022 lows, and short interest has surged. Valuations have compressed—15x on 2026 earnings, or 17x assuming a 15% earnings decline.
    • Statistically, back-to-back 4.5% drops have only occurred four times since 1950, and each instance saw strong 12-month forward returns. Participation remains weak, with only 23% of stocks above their 200-day moving average, a level that historically precedes strong gains.
    • Additionally, the VIX term structure is inverted, which has historically been followed by one-month win ratios of 100%.
Bottom Line: We still believe the probabilities favor a de-escalation and that stocks are stretched to the downside.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1, BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine and RUinPinehurst
xWVU2010x said:
This is one of the biggest takeaways in terms of what the average American does not grasp. Anyone who has worked for a company that sells a tangible product with a supply chain knows that you cannot just create a factory overnight. Shoot even if you have a fully functioning factory, hitting it with out of nowhere insanely large purchase orders does not mean the factory has the workforce/capacity to fill it. Think about Covid, why was there such a scarce supply of tests for so long? Because factories that make the tests were suddenly being hit with POs far beyond their capacity, those companies to fill those probably had to open up multiple new facilities and train thousands of workers at warp speed to fill those orders within the calendar year.

So assuming a scenario where a company does not have a factory here, committing to putting one here, staffing it, training a workforce, and getting the raw materials takes a significant amount of time and resources, and it also is a gamble that the next administration (or even this one given how much they flip flop) won’t roll back the tariffs and make the investment all for not.

All companies that make tangible products do not have a clear path to win right now, they are simply stunned/frozen with uncertainty.
Click to expand...
And they need capital/cash flow to make such investments. These tariffs make it much harder for companies to do what Trump wants them to.
 
  • Like
Reactions: drewbagel423 and xWVU2010x
rutgersdave said:
He knows that Vietnam won’t purchase much US goods due to their size and wants them to stop manufacturing goods and cut their employment. They barely have any tariffs now. Basically cut your trade surplus and stop selling to the US.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't imports and exports be based on per capita purchasing?
 
T2Kplus20 said:
And they need capital/cash flow to make such investments. These tariffs make it much harder for companies to do what Trump wants them to.
Click to expand...
Weren't corporations using that "future investment" money to just buy up their own stock, for years? Now there's no rainy day fund or investment fund? Dang. How'd that happen?
 
rutgersdave said:
Placed limit orders AMZN $150, O $50, PRU $80, CVX $130, CRM $212, FRT $85, AMCR $8.8

They are low but might hit this week. The market could free fall and hit some. My patriotic duty to buy stocks. I already own most of these stocks.

Take advantage of people emotions.
Click to expand...
AMCR hit today with 5.7% dividend. Dividend aristocrat increasing dividend every year the last 25 years

Changed my O order to market down 2.25 dividend 6.1% Dividend Aristocrat again


All I want is the market to fall faster and further so I can buy more.
 
  • Like
Reactions: coloradoknight
T2Kplus20 said:
HOOD is a very good buy and is becoming the Schwab/Fidelity of Gen Z and younger Millennials. Their CBO was on with The Compound on Friday (linked above). Very impressive.
Click to expand...
Current p/e of 22. Though that is unflated by last years crypto run.

Still not expensive for the growth rate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
This graphic of GDP per capita over time is why this tariff nonsense (based on nonsensical calculations) is all so unnecessary. The US economy has been strong for decades and has been getting even stronger over the past several years (outside of the COVID blip). Yes we had some bad inflation post-COVID, but not nearly as bad as the rest of the world and that is mostly under control now. The US has 4.2% of the world's population and 32% of the wealth and GDP per capita is probably the best way to look at wealth and the US is 9th behind some small, well run countries (which don’t have to spend 3.4% of their wealth on the military- and more than the rest of the top 10 combined). China is 75th.

Personally, I'm not terribly worried about the markets, since even with a 20% drop, we're still well above where we were just 2 years ago, and as long as people don't need to cash out now, they should be ok, but my bigger concern is this ill-planned impulsive move akin to what was seen in 1930 with Smoot-Hawley is going to lead the world into a recession, unless the US negotiates these ridiculously high reciprocal tariffs way down (the 10% across the board tariffs are bad enough, but might not wreck the economy), as many CEOs and economists are pushing. We'll see.

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/#google_vignette

qSLlv2g.png
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: thegock and BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine
RU848789 said:
This graphic of GDP per capita over time is why this tariff nonsense (based on nonsensical calculations) is all so unnecessary. The US economy has been strong for decades and has been getting even stronger over the past several years (outside of the COVID blip). Yes we had some bad inflation post-COVID, but not nearly as bad as the rest of the world and that is mostly under control now. The US has 4.2% of the world's population and 32% of the wealth and GDP per capita is probably the best way to look at wealth and the US is 9th behind some small, well run countries (which don’t have to spend 3.4% of their wealth on the military- and more than the rest of the top 10 combined). China is 75th.

Personally, I'm not terribly worried about the markets, since even with a 20% drop, we're still well above where we were just 2 years ago, and as long as people don't need to cash out now, they should be ok, but my bigger concern is this ill-planned impulsive move akin to what was seen in 1930 with Smoot-Hawley is going to lead the world into a recession, unless the US negotiates these ridiculously high reciprocal tariffs way down (the 10% across the board tariffs are bad enough, but might not wreck the economy), as many CEOs and economists are pushing. We'll see.

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/#google_vignette

qSLlv2g.png
Click to expand...
Clueless Smoot-Hawley comp again lol...stay in your lane.
 
  • Like
Reactions: goru1869 and bac2therac
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Richie O
  • Locked
  • Sticky

BB Recruiting 2025 TKR HOOPS SCOOP.....

Replies
6
Views
4K
The Round Table
Richie O
Richie O
RutgersRaRa

OT: Need the Skinny on US District Court Jury Duty (Trenton)

Replies
18
Views
911
Rutgers Football
DHajekRC84
DHajekRC84
DHajekRC84

OT: Inside tip/news on NJ Anchor program.

Replies
0
Views
718
Rutgers Football
DHajekRC84
DHajekRC84
J

OT: I'll eat some crow, and take a bow

Replies
34
Views
2K
Rutgers Football
BigEastPhil
B
GoodOl'Rutgers

OT: Steam game.. College Football manager Turn-Based text game on Steam

Replies
0
Views
264
Rutgers Football
GoodOl'Rutgers
GoodOl'Rutgers
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back