#112 San Diego, DePaul, Texas A&M, San Diego State, Montana, #117 Rutgers, Utah, George Mason, UC Irvine, Georgia State, #122 College of Charleston.
Our Sagarin neighborhood (starting at January 19, 2019)
- Thread starter Mr_Twister
- Start date
I told you guys we should hang out with DePaul more often.
George Mason is like the RU football of bball mid-majors, moved up in conferences as they lost Larranaga and it seems they didn't make a good hire to replace him because they've been mostly awful in the A10. Seem to be getting better though, if only.
George Mason is like the RU football of bball mid-majors, moved up in conferences as they lost Larranaga and it seems they didn't make a good hire to replace him because they've been mostly awful in the A10. Seem to be getting better though, if only.
Through Wednesday January 30, 2019 ... #90 Toledo (coached by ex-Rutgers Tod Kowalczyk), Colorado, South Carolina, Utah, Grand Canyon, #95 Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Boston College, San Diego, San Diego State, #100 Texas A&M.
I saw Toledo play and win earlier this year at Fort Myers FL (Germain Arena) playing FGCU. Rutgers would handle Toledo.
I saw Toledo play and win earlier this year at Fort Myers FL (Germain Arena) playing FGCU. Rutgers would handle Toledo.
Through Saturday February 9 2019 ... #97 Oregon State, SMU, Yale, Loyola-Chicago, East Tennessee State, #102 Rutgers, San Diego, Georgia, Wichita State, Northern Kentucky, #107 Vanderbilt.
Nice to have Tom Crean and Gregg Marshall and Bryce Drew coached teams in our rear view mirror.
Nice to have Tom Crean and Gregg Marshall and Bryce Drew coached teams in our rear view mirror.
Indiana still has favorable perception based on strength of schedule.I'm happy they loss because Rutgers is still tied with them having 4 league wins.
Georgia may not be in our rear view mirror for long. Tom Crean just landed the #2 player in the class of 2019.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...s-to-georgia-over-kentucky-florida-state/amp/
It should be noted that the past two seasons Rutgers finished around #120 in this rating. Finishing this year better than 100 would be a good step in the right direction.
A bigger step is seen in the KenPom rankings. Currently #92 and finished the past two years around #130.
Through Wednesday February 14 2019 Sagarin ratings ... #91 Utah, Georgia Tech, Grand Canyon, Oregon State, Yale, #96 Rutgers, East Tennessee State, San Diego, Pittsburgh, DePaul, #101 San Diego State.
Rutgers now number 88 in Kenpom. For more perspective, the NIT finalist team in 2006 was ranked 71 at the end of the year. The 2014-2015 team was ranked 198!
Through Sunday February 24, Sagarin ratings neighborhood ... #79 Furman, #80 Notre Dinero, #81 Southern California, #82 BYU, #83 Toledo, #84 Rutgers, #85 East Tennessee State, #86 South Dakota State, #87 Oklahoma State, #88 Missouri, #89 Vermont.
Nice climb through the ratings from the #117 when the thread started. Again, #83 Toledo is coached by ex-Rutgers assistant Tod Kowalczyk.
Nice climb through the ratings from the #117 when the thread started. Again, #83 Toledo is coached by ex-Rutgers assistant Tod Kowalczyk.
I'm a huge sagarin ratings fan until this year and after looking at it this morning I'm giving up on it being a good ranking for bball.
Any ranking which has Nebraska in the top 50 and northwestern over Rutgers just isn't accurate enough for what has actually happened in the court here in 2018-2019.
Any ranking which has Nebraska in the top 50 and northwestern over Rutgers just isn't accurate enough for what has actually happened in the court here in 2018-2019.
Keep in mind that the ratings are for neutral site head-to-head when comparing two teams’ ratings.
They're also not weighted for recency at all. It's a season-long resume ranking.
Nebraska beat Seton Hall by 23. We lost to Seton Hall by 6. There are home/road adjustments baked in, but results like those matter. Another one: Nebraska lost at Purdue by 19, we lost at Purdue by 35. Those are the things the computer ratings reflect.
Nebraska beat Seton Hall by 23. We lost to Seton Hall by 6. There are home/road adjustments baked in, but results like those matter. Another one: Nebraska lost at Purdue by 19, we lost at Purdue by 35. Those are the things the computer ratings reflect.
Yeah, I don't get how Northwestern is ahead of us in any of the models. They have a weaker SOS, fewer wins, fewer conference wins, no wins against ranked teams.... and are currently on an 8 game losing streak, last winning over a month ago.
Margin of victory/defeat. A 35-point loss is a gigantic anchor on ratings.
There is a good case to be made that it's an outlier (mostly) worth discarding. That's why you use Sagarin as a tool and not the end-all/be-all.
No more coach speak when you play Rutgers.
Every opposing coach and player knows how dangerous and physical we are... F Sagarin.
#scaredtoplayus!
Every opposing coach and player knows how dangerous and physical we are... F Sagarin.
#scaredtoplayus!
NW has a 26 pt loss @MSU, 20 pt loss @Michigan, 19 vs. Fresno St, 18 @Maryland, 16 @Wisconsin, and 14 @OSU.
RU has a 35 pt loss @Purdue, 19 vs. SJU, 18 @Minnesota, 14 vs. Maryland, and 14 @OSU.
I think it's the loss to Fordham that's dragging the model down - but that's a lot of weight to give to one game, imo.
One thing to not lose site of is this team lost its #1, #2 and #4 scorers from a year ago. To be improved a year later in a much more difficult league (than a year ago) is a testament to really good coaching and really good recruiting. First time in a long while it has been this exciting to be an RU hoops fan.
Actually I ran the numbers, we're -106 points in conference play (wins and losses) and Northwestern is -116.
So what's really doing it is the fact that NW beat three top-120 opponents in non-conference (Utah, Georgia Tech, Depaul, and the Utah game was a destruction) and took Oklahoma to OT.
Their only other loss was to Fresno State, who's also good.
Meanwhile Rutgers' only good non-conference win was Miami. We got worked at home by St. John's which is roughly equivalent to their neutral site loss to Fresno. And then yeah throw in the Fordham loss and needing OT to beat Columbia and that seems to be it.
If you look at Big Ten numbers only, we have a better efficiency margin (-9.2) than Northwestern (-11) and Indiana (-9.7). Nebraska is -6.6, Penn State is -5, Illinois is -3.8. That gives you a better sense of how teams have been playing lately.
The Purdue game, because it was such a big margin and this is a small sample, still has a big effect. Take it out or even just neutralize it a bit and we're around -7. Take out the Minnesota game (also no Eugene) and it's like -5.8, right in the mix with Nebraska and Penn State.
Saw that. Very impressive especially considering the previous rankings I noted in my earlier post. This is a real basketball team at this point. Pretty cool.
As I posted elsewhere , Kenpom is finally having enough games to be a decent tool to look at teams. However, it doesn’t reflect present play by a team. It values out of conference over what have you done over the last 10. Take a lot at Kenpom’s 41-50. Nebraska is 43, Pennstate is 46, Minnesota is 47, and Indiana is 48, all teams we have beaten and I personally think we would beat all 4 on a neutral court if played right now down the stretch . We are still the last Big 10 team even though we are 10 th in the league with a 3 game lead over Northwestern.
Through February 26 ... #80 Notre Dinero, BYU, Southern California, West Virginia, South Carolina, #85 Rutgers, South Dakota State, East Tennessee, Vermont, Utah, #90 Oklahoma State.
Fiery guys Bob Higgins and Frank Martin can’t be happy that Rutgers are on their coattails. Would love to have any of those teams in today’s Sagarin neighborhood on our OOC schedule next year. All would be entertaining games.
Fiery guys Bob Higgins and Frank Martin can’t be happy that Rutgers are on their coattails. Would love to have any of those teams in today’s Sagarin neighborhood on our OOC schedule next year. All would be entertaining games.
Through Wednesday March 7 ... #73 Missouri, Colorado, Temple, UCLA, South Carolina, #78 Rutgers, San Francisco, BYU, Furman, Lipscomb, #83 Texas A&M.
