I think everyone agrees it doesn’t last until 2036. You’re saying 10-11 years early, right? That’s the discussion… how many years early?
It’s hard to see 10-11 years but becomes easier once you get 5-6 years out.
The debate is not IF but when.
Pac 12 Media Rights - Conference Realignment
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It’s hard to see 10-11 years but becomes easier once you get 5-6 years out.
The debate is not IF but when.
Yes I've heard 2-3 years out, they could essentially "meet in the middle" and do 2029-2030. Again though, that devalues ESPN's properties as they'll continue falling farther behind the B1G/ACC
The open discussions about unequal revenue sharing are startling
They'll likely go nowhere, but it signals the beginning of the end for the ACC
Money talks and the B1G and SEC have lots of it. This is a negotiation. The closer to the end of the GOR, the less money it requires for the ACC exit. Could be 5 years, could be 2, but it’s happening.
Syracuse will be playing USF on Saturdays and I can’t wait to not watch it.
I recently had a child graduate from UT and never heard a peep about them wanting to join the SEC. How much chatter was coming out of LA before USC and UCLA bolted? Nada.
Limited damage??? $100 million for two teams to leave just one year early. What do you think it will cost for 8-10 years?
If there was any ACC schools toying with the idea of trying to get out early, the OU\TX evidence will have disabused them of that notion.
The ACC will go down just like OU and TX. Nothing will happen until 3-4 years from the end of the ACC deal, which is about 8-9 years from now.
It’s not $100 million. It’s $100 million less the difference in annual payouts between the Big XII and the SEC. Still a significant amount but clearly a palatable amount because they voluntarily paid it. They could have waited.
Where does the SEC get their money? From ESPN.
ESPN isn’t going to help the SEC blow up the ACC early. The ACC deal might be their most cost effective rights contract in any sport, considering the huge amount of live content they get out of it.
Okay, say it’s $70 million. They decided it is worth that to get out one year early, and I am sure ESPN helped them with that.
A school isn’t going to pay 5-10 times that to get out of the ACC a lot early, given that ESPN won’t help with that.
Admittedly, I’m no expert here. But if I’m ESPN, are my properties like Clemson and FSU worth more playing Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Duke, or Bama, Georgia, Tennessee, UT, OU, etc?
Some individual games would be worth more, but that doesn’t come close to what they lose by having the ACC contract and it’s cheap live content go away.
The simple way to look at is that they are getting killed by the NBA and NFL contracts costing a huge amount of money for a limited amount of actual games, so the ACC contract with its ton of football and basketball games (that they are paying below market value for) is a hugely important time slot filler for them.
Not to throw hundreds of millions of dollars just to get a couple of college teams added to a conference.
Understood. The ACC will have to do what every other poached conference has done. Backfill. So teams like SMU, maybe some PAC 12 schools like Wazzou or Oregon State, Memphis etc are next up. Not ideal but there will still be an ACC.
When (not if as we both agree) the premium ACC schools decide they are leaving to the B1G and SEC, the negotiations will heat up. The conferences have money. The networks have money, and the schools have motivation. When the numbers make sense it will happen. Not sure if that’s 2030 or 2034. But rest assured, hundreds of millions of dollars will absolutely be thrown around.
I still don’t get where you think the money is coming from for the teams that leave. These TV entities like ESPN and Fox Sports are parts of larger entities that are struggling.
They aren’t throwing hundreds of millions at this.
The B1G just got a record pay raise about 6 months ago. I don’t think things are trending the way you think they are.
Actually there was a lot from USC. The TV package was a disaster. They actually spearheaded the move to end the contract early.
Both Oklahoma and Texas tried to join the PAC years ago. Texas wouldn't give up the LHN so that fell through.
There is huge difference between paying the high market rate to get a contract, like they do for the NFL, B1G, NBA.etc, and spending tons of money to incrementally improve a contract they already have (Fox) or spending money to improve one contract that hurts another contract you have and depend on (ESPN).
Fair point about Texas and OU. Although that was right on the heels of Nebraska and Colorado bolting the Big XII if I recall. Also, I think Texas Tech was the monkey wrench in that deal. The famous “tech problem.”
I believe OU also tried to get to the PAC12 with OK St a year or two after the larger Texas move didn’t come off, but the PAC12 turned that down.
I think I remember that too. No way the bow ties in Palo Alto and Berkeley were going to rub elbows with the Pokes.
They might regret it now, though. It might have kept the conference relevant enough that the last 12 years would have gone down differently.
I've said early 2030s at best if ACC schools are going to get out, not 2-3 years from now. The deal is til 2036 so I'll be generous to say maybe 3-4 years early instead of my usual 1-2 estimation but certainly not 10+ years early.
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The tweets above were in response to some of the comments from the FSU AD to their BOT.
This is what I've mentioned as really the only solution for the ACC status schools but at the same time what's the motivation of the non status schools to do an uneven revenue share unless the status schools sign an even longer GOR to stay. Why do uneven revenue share now and then those status schools still leave. What do you gain?
This is what I've mentioned as really the only solution for the ACC status schools but at the same time what's the motivation of the non status schools to do an uneven revenue share unless the status schools sign an even longer GOR to stay. Why do uneven revenue share now and then those status schools still leave. What do you gain?
Premium properties will get paid but others not so much. Did ESPN fork over the dollars for a premium property like the B10? No, they had to let it go because it was too expensive for them. Also the trend is paying more for less just like inflation with anything else. They pay the same amount and get a smaller package of games. These media companies are being more judicious on where they put their dollars. Streaming services are losers for most of them at the moment. It’s not the panacea they thought it was when they all were tripping over themselves to start one.
If ESPN or anyone else has a sweet deal they will likely ride it to near the end. Look at CBS and the SEC. They rode the SEC sweetheart deal til the end and now are paying more or just as much for a lesser B10 package. They didn’t want to fork over any extra dollars before they had to and just kept their bargain as long as they could.
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If you’re a non status school there really is no point to kowtowing to the status schools because history shows they end up screwing you anyway even after giving in. Texas/OU resisted expansion of the B12 and USC/UCLA same with the PAC12.
Uneven share sounds like a solution on paper but I don’t see it as one in practice unless the status schools essentially agree to stay even longer than the current GOR. If they leave anyway the non status schools gain nothing and actually lose something (revenue).
I’d say the same for the PAC12 schools with regards to Oregon and Washington.
Why do you think they agreed to pay that if it was only for a year until the GOR ran out?
Follow the tea leaves... i.e. it was worth it
GOR's, though tricky, are like any contact
They're made to be broken, and are never ironclad
FWIW, FSU AD Michael Alford went in front of the BOT today and presented this:
TheOsceola - Michael Alford outlines argument for unequal ACC revenue sharing
Michael Alford makes a pitch to FSU's Board of Trustees outlining the need for revenue sharing in the ACC.
floridastate.rivals.com
https://247sports.com/college/flori...otball-ACC-exit-fee-Michael-Alford-205253904/
Follow the dominoes here. Alford is a shrewd businessman. He's not going on record w/these facts if things weren't already brewing
Alford is a smart guy
Things are already in the works for an exit deal long before 2036
Read between the tea leaves... you don't go public w/something like this unless there's something happening sooner rather than later
You said 2-3 years, that puts you at 2026 at the latest. We’ll see. I’ll only believe it when we see it with anything in the 2020s.
He didn’t say FSU was leaving anytime soon.
I’ve read a few things about ACC schools lawyers going to HQ to examine the GOR but nothing ever happens and there’s nothing to suggest that it will either. On top of which if there was any litigation would a conference touch a school that’s in the middle of such litigation? I tend think the answer is no. It would need to be a clean break.
No that was 100% on Texas refusing to share the LHN money. It didn't take long for Texas and a very unwilling Oklahoma to bring the Big 12 band back together. It was always a matter of time.... the expiration of the LHN contract.
I’ve repeatedly heard 2-3 years
These things tend to happen quickly when nobody sees them coming (us to the B1G, Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, USC / UCLA to the B1G)
He didn’t say FSU is leaving bc they’re still in the Acc with no deal done yet
FSU fires warning shot to ACC: ‘Something has to change’
A trustee asked whether a buyout to leave the ACC was feasible. The answer wasn’t “no.”
Alford is pushing the ACC to change the way it gives money to teams. By his numbers, FSU contributes roughly 15% of the ACC’s media-rights value because of its strong TV ratings, football/basketball success and major in-state markets. But the Seminoles get only 7% of the distributions as one of 14 full members of the conference.
Instead of splitting the TV revenue equally, Alford suggested a new model based partly on performance and brand power.
“I know it won’t make that (gap) up,” Alford said, “but what can it make up?”
Alford also said that if the Pac-12 crumbles because the Big Ten/Big 12 expand again, a new window for media-rights discussions could open.
The grant of rights itself was not discussed during the meeting, and it’s unclear how, or if, FSU would challenge it.
It is, however, clear that TV revenue is a major topic of conversation at the highest levels of FSU, including Alford, Egan and president Richard McCullough.
“We have to do something,” board chairperson Peter Collins said.
Shots fired…FSU fires warning shot to ACC: ‘Something has to change’
A trustee asked whether a buyout to leave the ACC was feasible. The answer wasn’t “no.”www.tampabay.com
Alford is pushing the ACC to change the way it gives money to teams. By his numbers, FSU contributes roughly 15% of the ACC’s media-rights value because of its strong TV ratings, football/basketball success and major in-state markets. But the Seminoles get only 7% of the distributions as one of 14 full members of the conference.
Instead of splitting the TV revenue equally, Alford suggested a new model based partly on performance and brand power.
“I know it won’t make that (gap) up,” Alford said, “but what can it make up?”
Alford also said that if the Pac-12 crumbles because the Big Ten/Big 12 expand again, a new window for media-rights discussions could open.
The grant of rights itself was not discussed during the meeting, and it’s unclear how, or if, FSU would challenge it.
It is, however, clear that TV revenue is a major topic of conversation at the highest levels of FSU, including Alford, Egan and president Richard McCullough.
“We have to do something,” board chairperson Peter Collins said.
So glad we are not in the ACC. FSU wants to have a TV rights agreement akin to the original Big XII Conference and the European soccer leagues, aka beggar thy neighbor. I cannot imagine the FSU demands going down well in ACC Land.
You’d think that way too if you carried the league 2/3 of the time you’ve been in, only to get hosed by the Carolina mafia time and time again
Without FSU (and mire recently, Clemson) the Acc would be a distant 5th, well behind the PAC & B12 in terms of stature, revenue, publicity
I basically agree with your points, but what are the realistic options for FSU and Clemson? I can't see the SEC taking them - both states are already represented by the Flagship State Universities. Moving the Big XII is - at best - a lateral move. And I doubt the Big 10 would be interested. Maybe I'm lacking imagination, but I kind of see FSU stuck in the ACC for the time being.
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