So ... I am posting this post-mortem BEFORE reading any other articles or views - as I often will do this season ... so as to convey my initial impressions "untainted" by other views. No doubt, after reading other accounts, I will take those into consideration and my opinions may evolve after such reviews. Be aware this is a long post (for those who complain about the length of my posts).
Understand that the view we just got is valuable - but there are still 3 full weeks before the first real game, and 5-6 weeks before the Vegas games (ND, Alabama, Houston). That is a lot of practice time to improve on fundamentals, especially on defense. Also, consider that because of how much practice is still to come, the team could and should look quite different in a month.
Understanding the limits of what can be learned about the team in an exhibition game with a lot of practice time remaining, and from a game where Pikiell stated in advance he was NOT going to use practice time to prep the team for the other players' tendencies (like they would normally do during the season game by game prep), I offer this VERY preliminary thought about the upcoming season:
Based SOLELY on this game, and assuming only "normal" and gradual in-season developmental improvements as if the season started LAST NIGHT (i.e. not 3 more weeks of practice before the first real game, nor 5 relatively easier games to start the season), I see RU, as it CURRENTLY is, as perhaps ranked #7 to #10 in the Big Ten, and a probably NCAA team (but not a top 8 seed). With those caveats, understand, also based on this ONE game, RU does have plenty of room to GROW as a team, as well.
I will start with the areas that RU will have to work on over the next 3 weeks, and through the early part of their season:
1) Rebounding. RU was beaten to the rebound too often, and had the ball dribble off their hands too much while attempting rebounds. And were badly outrebounded on the offensive glass, a major problem in this game ... and going forward unless this is improved upon. RU, as constructed, may not have to be the superior offensive rebounding team relative to their opponents, but they must improve, and close the gap. RU ended up with a good amount of its own offensive rebounds, but needs to improve its defensive rebounding.
2) Post Defense / Help Defense. I THINK these may be related in this game. I do need much more of a sample size to truly understand what was going on. But clearly, RU's post defense was not good in this game. I'll get to individual players later, but 2 things stood out in this game: Sommerville was absolutely abused defensively - and his minutes were limited severely because of that ... and Martini could not defend a post player with size and strength. Now, these are the sorts of things that can improve as RU's help defense rotations improve ... and will have to improve if RU wants to finish in the top third of the Big Ten.
3) Inability To Close - possibly due to untimely late turnovers. So ... RU led 79-70 with maybe 6-8 minutes left, and could not close the deal. In that stretch, RU had at least 4 turnovers: Ogbole stripped on post move, Bailey with a too aggressive cross court pass easily intercepted, Harper with a turnover after forcing himself inside the paint 1 on 3, and Williams on a drive to the rim, ball off him after his shot was blocked. Plus, something that probably would not have happened in a real game, when Harper got his 4th foul with 6:30 left, Pikiell left him in (presumably to see how he'd play with 4 fouls) ... Harper immediately played "ole" defense (not even trying, but literally just letting his player get easy shots) on back to back possessions, and was pulled. If I had to guess, this inability to close was a combination of Harper and Bailey perhaps being a little tired (short on shots, more careless), plus their inexperience ... both of which are fixable with practice, experience and slight tweaks in the substitution rotations.
Positive Team Signs (though a small sample size) - individual players comments to follow after:
1) Definitely better FT shooting. RU was 18-22 FT - and almost every player's FT form looked solid (Ogbole and Davis looked improved, the new players look like they can all hit their FT's).
2) Much better scorers than last season - even with a small sample size. That does not mean RU will not have games where they miss plenty of shots (all teams have those games). Bailey, Harper and Hayes are better shooters and scorers than ANY players RU had last season. Any other offensive shortcomings of other players pale in comparison to the improved scoring potential of those 3 players. Too early to tell if Davis is improved as a scorer, and Williams had foul trouble and did not try many shots. It was only ONE game, and at home, so way too early to tell overall or longer term, but RU was 9-22 from 3 - 40% ... fueled by the correct guys taking the 3's: Bailey, Harper and Hayes took 1`7 of RU's 22 3's.
3) New Style of Offense. RU used a outside weave (with hand offs) for the most part, coupled with high screens ... and TONS of willing ball movement and passes. Bailey used screens less often than did Harper (as we saw in RU's intra-squad scrimmage), but he DID use screens. Bailey was the main RU player who went only one on one (Harper very occasionally - but often off screens) ... and I suspect that will continue, as when he is hitting his shots he is simply undefendable one on one. One fly in the ointment on offense: Though RU shot 45% from the field, 40%+ from 3, 81% FT, but only had 11 assists on 29 made FG. Part of that was Bailey's ability and tendency to score one on one. Part of that was scoring off 13 offensive rebounds (no assists on some of those). Part if that was Harper also scoring in isolation.
I am sure there is, and will be, much more.
Players:
1) Bailey: 36 minutes ... which is probably a little too much, as he looked like a couple of shits late were short. He is something else, eh? Early, he missed (maybe 2-6 FG to start), but of course, scorer that he is he kept shooting and started to hit his shots (including contested mid-range pull ups and turnarounds) ... and in the 2nd half hit is 3's (including back to back possessions - one after 4 quick passes, and one in transition). He was ... okay ... on defense (to those who said he should not cover Richmond in response to my pre-game post - maybe you were correct). Bailey was slow early in the game in closing on the 3-point line offensive players, but appeared to do better with that later. He WAS very good coming from the weak side to contest and block shots. He was okay with defensive rebounding, and will either need to improve, or get help from other RU players there. And he got to the FT line. In all, a nice debut, albeit in an exhibition game. I still think he may have games where he misses a lot of shots, but he will ALSO have games where he actually makes a better percentage of his shots and scores 30+. Bailey seems likely to lead RU in scoring, over even Harper. FYI, with Davis starting alongside Williams and Harper, Bailey started at the 4 spot.
2) Harper: 32 minutes, and a more than solid showing. Early in the game he looked like RU's best player, and the best player on the floor. Picked up 2 fouls and was not as effective, generally, in the 2nd half (though still good). He only had 1 assist - not sure why ... perhaps he played a little more isolation drives and not dishing off than I expected ... perhaps that was just what the defense gave. His step-back mid-range and 3-point shooting is truly high level, and he showed that off last night. His defense was generally solid - until he got his 3rd foul. He did commit 2 bad turnovers in the 2nd half - and at bad times. I am not worried about Harper, who is, and will be, very good.
3) Williams: Limited to 16 minutes, partly due to fouls (which did happen occasionally last year also). Other than the fouls, when in, played solid defense - did NOT generally force his offense ... but also was not much of a playmaker either. It is POSSIBLE, that Derkack, Acuff and Davis take minutes from him as the season goes on. I'll get to that in a moment.
4) Davis: My apologies to Jon Rothstein, who I believe stated Davis would start over Martini ... and for this game he was correct. Davis was solid - but 3-9 FG (I scored him as 3-7, but obviously missed a couple of shots - one of which I had as a turnover, not a shot - a strip, but must have been a shot). He remains a superior on-ball defener - and it showed in this game. His FT motion looks smoother (and he was 2-2). He will obviously get more than 10 minutes per game playing time - not sure he gets the 26 minutes he did last night (Acuff was given just a flavor, a taste, and will get more minutes when ready) - at the expense of Davis and Derkack.
5) Ogbole. So ... lots of debate about him. Was able to be on the court for 21 minutes, without material foul trouble. 2 blocked shots. 4 rebounds. 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT. I thought he was stripped on 1 post move (so either a turnover or another missed shot should have been recorded - but neither showed up). He is definitely improved from last season, but I am not sure he showed he was improved enough. But he got the minutes because Sommerville was hopeless on defense, and Martini had foul trouble (and Martini had trouble defending the post also). Jury is still out.
6) Hayes. Wow ... great showing. He's not going to go 4-4 FG every game, of course. But he was great in the 1st half. For some reason he appeared to have many fewer minutes in the 2nd half. I could be wrong about that but that is what it felt like watching the game. He did have 18 minutes overall. He also played a solid floor game: 2 rebounds, 2 nice assists, reasonable defense as best I could tell.
7) Derkack. Interesting game ... 30 minutes of floor time, 3rd most on the team behind Bailey and Harper. That will come down when Acuff is more game-ready (Acuff just 3 minutes). Subbed for Williams and Davis and Harper in the various rotations. His missed shots really hurt (1-7 FG, 0-2 3-point). None of the shots were bad shots (maybe 1, but they were mostly reasonable shots) - one can hope that in a larger sample size he will hit those types of shots (if he is 3-7, RU probably wins the game). And, he had 3 turnovers - all because he was trying to force things. BUT ... he was amazing in both defense and rebounding ... and I mean that seriously. He looked like a fantastic (not merely good) defender. He and Davis are RU's 2 best defenders by a wide margin (and Williams is an above-average defender, but Derkack and Davis are clearly a step above). Derkack did a terrific job on Richmond, for example, when he was covering him, was excellent in help, and a terror to the offense above the perimeter, very, very disruptive on defense. And he led RU in rebounding. If that remains consistent, Pikiell is going to give him real minutes - and hopefully he will hit 40% of his FG's. I was concerned about his transition defensively from the zone-orientation at Merrimack (though he was defensive player of the year in that conference) to the man to man concept of Pikiell. Not worried at all about that defensive transition now.
8) Martini. Only 11 minutes. Picked up 2 quick fouls in the 1st half after he entered the game. Did better in the 2nd half when he entered as a reserve - several good rebounds and scores off offensive rebounds. BUT ... could not defend the post at all against Ejiofor. He did miss his only 3 - way too small sample size. RU did go a couple of minutes with Bailey at the 5, going small - probably because neither Martini nor Sommerville could defend at all. If Martini really has trouble defending, he will lose playing time (to Grant - who did not play at all), to Sommerville, to Hayes, to Derkack). I know - small sample size.
9) Acuff. Only 3 minutes, just a taste - probably they wanted him just to get his feet wet, that he was not fully game-ready. Only took one shot, a missed 3 (it was a little hurried and forced, in my opinion). I am presuming he will be getting double digit minutes when game-ready. Obviously, we got not clue at all of what his role in the rotation will be. Presumably, his minutes come at the expense of Davis's 26 minutes in this game, and Derkack's 30 minutes.
10) Sommerville. Just 7 minutes ... entirely because he got completely schooled on defense several times - like "looked really bad" fooled. His ONE offensive move was really nice, and a nice pull-up mid-range (12 footer, maybe?). I suspect Sommerville will be one of the primary beneficiaries of the next 3 weeks of practice time, then the warm-up part of RU's schedule.
Grant and Dortch were DNP's - I suspect that does say where they are on the playing time sliding scale, eh?
And. becasue this was not long enough, I am sure I forgot things - which people will undoubtedly gleefully inform me of.
Understand that the view we just got is valuable - but there are still 3 full weeks before the first real game, and 5-6 weeks before the Vegas games (ND, Alabama, Houston). That is a lot of practice time to improve on fundamentals, especially on defense. Also, consider that because of how much practice is still to come, the team could and should look quite different in a month.
Understanding the limits of what can be learned about the team in an exhibition game with a lot of practice time remaining, and from a game where Pikiell stated in advance he was NOT going to use practice time to prep the team for the other players' tendencies (like they would normally do during the season game by game prep), I offer this VERY preliminary thought about the upcoming season:
Based SOLELY on this game, and assuming only "normal" and gradual in-season developmental improvements as if the season started LAST NIGHT (i.e. not 3 more weeks of practice before the first real game, nor 5 relatively easier games to start the season), I see RU, as it CURRENTLY is, as perhaps ranked #7 to #10 in the Big Ten, and a probably NCAA team (but not a top 8 seed). With those caveats, understand, also based on this ONE game, RU does have plenty of room to GROW as a team, as well.
I will start with the areas that RU will have to work on over the next 3 weeks, and through the early part of their season:
1) Rebounding. RU was beaten to the rebound too often, and had the ball dribble off their hands too much while attempting rebounds. And were badly outrebounded on the offensive glass, a major problem in this game ... and going forward unless this is improved upon. RU, as constructed, may not have to be the superior offensive rebounding team relative to their opponents, but they must improve, and close the gap. RU ended up with a good amount of its own offensive rebounds, but needs to improve its defensive rebounding.
2) Post Defense / Help Defense. I THINK these may be related in this game. I do need much more of a sample size to truly understand what was going on. But clearly, RU's post defense was not good in this game. I'll get to individual players later, but 2 things stood out in this game: Sommerville was absolutely abused defensively - and his minutes were limited severely because of that ... and Martini could not defend a post player with size and strength. Now, these are the sorts of things that can improve as RU's help defense rotations improve ... and will have to improve if RU wants to finish in the top third of the Big Ten.
3) Inability To Close - possibly due to untimely late turnovers. So ... RU led 79-70 with maybe 6-8 minutes left, and could not close the deal. In that stretch, RU had at least 4 turnovers: Ogbole stripped on post move, Bailey with a too aggressive cross court pass easily intercepted, Harper with a turnover after forcing himself inside the paint 1 on 3, and Williams on a drive to the rim, ball off him after his shot was blocked. Plus, something that probably would not have happened in a real game, when Harper got his 4th foul with 6:30 left, Pikiell left him in (presumably to see how he'd play with 4 fouls) ... Harper immediately played "ole" defense (not even trying, but literally just letting his player get easy shots) on back to back possessions, and was pulled. If I had to guess, this inability to close was a combination of Harper and Bailey perhaps being a little tired (short on shots, more careless), plus their inexperience ... both of which are fixable with practice, experience and slight tweaks in the substitution rotations.
Positive Team Signs (though a small sample size) - individual players comments to follow after:
1) Definitely better FT shooting. RU was 18-22 FT - and almost every player's FT form looked solid (Ogbole and Davis looked improved, the new players look like they can all hit their FT's).
2) Much better scorers than last season - even with a small sample size. That does not mean RU will not have games where they miss plenty of shots (all teams have those games). Bailey, Harper and Hayes are better shooters and scorers than ANY players RU had last season. Any other offensive shortcomings of other players pale in comparison to the improved scoring potential of those 3 players. Too early to tell if Davis is improved as a scorer, and Williams had foul trouble and did not try many shots. It was only ONE game, and at home, so way too early to tell overall or longer term, but RU was 9-22 from 3 - 40% ... fueled by the correct guys taking the 3's: Bailey, Harper and Hayes took 1`7 of RU's 22 3's.
3) New Style of Offense. RU used a outside weave (with hand offs) for the most part, coupled with high screens ... and TONS of willing ball movement and passes. Bailey used screens less often than did Harper (as we saw in RU's intra-squad scrimmage), but he DID use screens. Bailey was the main RU player who went only one on one (Harper very occasionally - but often off screens) ... and I suspect that will continue, as when he is hitting his shots he is simply undefendable one on one. One fly in the ointment on offense: Though RU shot 45% from the field, 40%+ from 3, 81% FT, but only had 11 assists on 29 made FG. Part of that was Bailey's ability and tendency to score one on one. Part of that was scoring off 13 offensive rebounds (no assists on some of those). Part if that was Harper also scoring in isolation.
I am sure there is, and will be, much more.
Players:
1) Bailey: 36 minutes ... which is probably a little too much, as he looked like a couple of shits late were short. He is something else, eh? Early, he missed (maybe 2-6 FG to start), but of course, scorer that he is he kept shooting and started to hit his shots (including contested mid-range pull ups and turnarounds) ... and in the 2nd half hit is 3's (including back to back possessions - one after 4 quick passes, and one in transition). He was ... okay ... on defense (to those who said he should not cover Richmond in response to my pre-game post - maybe you were correct). Bailey was slow early in the game in closing on the 3-point line offensive players, but appeared to do better with that later. He WAS very good coming from the weak side to contest and block shots. He was okay with defensive rebounding, and will either need to improve, or get help from other RU players there. And he got to the FT line. In all, a nice debut, albeit in an exhibition game. I still think he may have games where he misses a lot of shots, but he will ALSO have games where he actually makes a better percentage of his shots and scores 30+. Bailey seems likely to lead RU in scoring, over even Harper. FYI, with Davis starting alongside Williams and Harper, Bailey started at the 4 spot.
2) Harper: 32 minutes, and a more than solid showing. Early in the game he looked like RU's best player, and the best player on the floor. Picked up 2 fouls and was not as effective, generally, in the 2nd half (though still good). He only had 1 assist - not sure why ... perhaps he played a little more isolation drives and not dishing off than I expected ... perhaps that was just what the defense gave. His step-back mid-range and 3-point shooting is truly high level, and he showed that off last night. His defense was generally solid - until he got his 3rd foul. He did commit 2 bad turnovers in the 2nd half - and at bad times. I am not worried about Harper, who is, and will be, very good.
3) Williams: Limited to 16 minutes, partly due to fouls (which did happen occasionally last year also). Other than the fouls, when in, played solid defense - did NOT generally force his offense ... but also was not much of a playmaker either. It is POSSIBLE, that Derkack, Acuff and Davis take minutes from him as the season goes on. I'll get to that in a moment.
4) Davis: My apologies to Jon Rothstein, who I believe stated Davis would start over Martini ... and for this game he was correct. Davis was solid - but 3-9 FG (I scored him as 3-7, but obviously missed a couple of shots - one of which I had as a turnover, not a shot - a strip, but must have been a shot). He remains a superior on-ball defener - and it showed in this game. His FT motion looks smoother (and he was 2-2). He will obviously get more than 10 minutes per game playing time - not sure he gets the 26 minutes he did last night (Acuff was given just a flavor, a taste, and will get more minutes when ready) - at the expense of Davis and Derkack.
5) Ogbole. So ... lots of debate about him. Was able to be on the court for 21 minutes, without material foul trouble. 2 blocked shots. 4 rebounds. 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT. I thought he was stripped on 1 post move (so either a turnover or another missed shot should have been recorded - but neither showed up). He is definitely improved from last season, but I am not sure he showed he was improved enough. But he got the minutes because Sommerville was hopeless on defense, and Martini had foul trouble (and Martini had trouble defending the post also). Jury is still out.
6) Hayes. Wow ... great showing. He's not going to go 4-4 FG every game, of course. But he was great in the 1st half. For some reason he appeared to have many fewer minutes in the 2nd half. I could be wrong about that but that is what it felt like watching the game. He did have 18 minutes overall. He also played a solid floor game: 2 rebounds, 2 nice assists, reasonable defense as best I could tell.
7) Derkack. Interesting game ... 30 minutes of floor time, 3rd most on the team behind Bailey and Harper. That will come down when Acuff is more game-ready (Acuff just 3 minutes). Subbed for Williams and Davis and Harper in the various rotations. His missed shots really hurt (1-7 FG, 0-2 3-point). None of the shots were bad shots (maybe 1, but they were mostly reasonable shots) - one can hope that in a larger sample size he will hit those types of shots (if he is 3-7, RU probably wins the game). And, he had 3 turnovers - all because he was trying to force things. BUT ... he was amazing in both defense and rebounding ... and I mean that seriously. He looked like a fantastic (not merely good) defender. He and Davis are RU's 2 best defenders by a wide margin (and Williams is an above-average defender, but Derkack and Davis are clearly a step above). Derkack did a terrific job on Richmond, for example, when he was covering him, was excellent in help, and a terror to the offense above the perimeter, very, very disruptive on defense. And he led RU in rebounding. If that remains consistent, Pikiell is going to give him real minutes - and hopefully he will hit 40% of his FG's. I was concerned about his transition defensively from the zone-orientation at Merrimack (though he was defensive player of the year in that conference) to the man to man concept of Pikiell. Not worried at all about that defensive transition now.
8) Martini. Only 11 minutes. Picked up 2 quick fouls in the 1st half after he entered the game. Did better in the 2nd half when he entered as a reserve - several good rebounds and scores off offensive rebounds. BUT ... could not defend the post at all against Ejiofor. He did miss his only 3 - way too small sample size. RU did go a couple of minutes with Bailey at the 5, going small - probably because neither Martini nor Sommerville could defend at all. If Martini really has trouble defending, he will lose playing time (to Grant - who did not play at all), to Sommerville, to Hayes, to Derkack). I know - small sample size.
9) Acuff. Only 3 minutes, just a taste - probably they wanted him just to get his feet wet, that he was not fully game-ready. Only took one shot, a missed 3 (it was a little hurried and forced, in my opinion). I am presuming he will be getting double digit minutes when game-ready. Obviously, we got not clue at all of what his role in the rotation will be. Presumably, his minutes come at the expense of Davis's 26 minutes in this game, and Derkack's 30 minutes.
10) Sommerville. Just 7 minutes ... entirely because he got completely schooled on defense several times - like "looked really bad" fooled. His ONE offensive move was really nice, and a nice pull-up mid-range (12 footer, maybe?). I suspect Sommerville will be one of the primary beneficiaries of the next 3 weeks of practice time, then the warm-up part of RU's schedule.
Grant and Dortch were DNP's - I suspect that does say where they are on the playing time sliding scale, eh?
And. becasue this was not long enough, I am sure I forgot things - which people will undoubtedly gleefully inform me of.
