RU-SHU Charted - Only for For Substitution Patterns/Rotation and Davis Defense

[lion1983]

So ... got bored today ... and had time. Was about to delete the RU-SHU DVR, and instead watched it again to chart the game, looking ONLY (or primarily) for RU's substitution patterns and rotation, and because there has been lot of "Davis" conversation, on what Davis did and did not do.

Davis, 1st, because it is shorter, and simpler. Well, maybe neither shorter nor simpler, but because I want to cover him first! There have been several threads on Davis - hey, well-warranted due to some very obvious weaknesses in his game. The debate basically centers on his his defense good enough - or according to some posters even good at all - to offset his offensive weaknesses.

Davis: I charted every defensive possession in which Davis was in the game. Long story short: His defense was superb in both halves - but especially in the 2nd half. When you look at the SHU possessions and Davis' match-ups, it is obvious he was excellent, demonstrating great pressure and terrific fundamentals, going through and over screens effectively, playing passing lanes especially well in the 2nd half (thus preventing SHU from effectively moving the ball with passes), forcing SHU to start its offense much further away from the basket than SHU would have liked.

In fact, when you listen to Holloway's post-game press conference, his major complaint about HIS team in the 2nd half was that they stopped passing the ball around and played too much ISO offense compared to the 1st half, saying he was not sure why. Well, having charted the game I can tell you why: Jamichael Davis ... who almost completely kept SHU's acting PG in the RU game (who is Dual, #33), from triggering plays in several different ways. Davis got many more minutes in the 2nd half than he did in the 1st half, BTW: Started, left the game at the 15:40 mark of the 1st half and did not return until 1 minute was left. But in the 2nd half Davis started, was subbed for at the 11 minute mark, and came back at the 5-minute mark for almost the entire rest of the game. In the 2nd half especially, Dual was almost never able to get to ball screens anywhere near the 3-point line with Davis on him, instead being forced 5-7 feet further away from the 3-point line ... and when off ball, though Davis did not play to prevent Dual from getting the ball at all, he DID play the passing lane on Dual enough to prevent the quick and easy pass to allow SHU to move the ball quickly, but without over-playing to allow a back-door cut. Very fundamentally sound defensive game by Davis.

Davis defended against #33 Dual almost entirely when Davis was in. The exception was when Dual was out the last 4-5 minutes of the game, and then Davis covered Jenkins, primarily. Dual scored 5 points, had 5 assists and 1 turnover ... but he had 2 points, 2 assists and 1 turnover while Davis was in the game - 1-3 FG when Davis was on him ... and that FG was actually scored against Harper on a switch. And late in the game Davis made 5-6 important defensive plays: He forced Dual into his sole turnover - at the baseline, he forced Jenkins into back to back travels at the baseline, he ran out at Jenkins in the corner on a switch (Davis was actually TWO help defenders away but still got out to really contest a corner 3 that Jenkins ended up rushing and missing - Williams had been screened), he combined with Williams TWICE to double-team the SHU ball handler forcing scramble plays, and he got a very important rebound off a SHU miss.

I only counted 2 times when Davis was beaten on the dribble allowing penetration - and both on a screen only, once which did lead to an assist for a lay-up, the other time Sommerville DID drop coverage quickly enough to contest the SHU lay-up try, which missed. Otherwise he was pristine preventing Dual or Jenkins from either getting dribble penetration or open shots.

There was a REASON Davis got a lot of minutes in the 2nd half: He was very disruptive on defense, very effective ... and that was more important than not helping out on offense. When you have 2 players such as Harper and Bailey who can both score in ISO, or even 1 on 2, though not always ideal or desired, you may be able to get away with the defense 1st guy - if that guy is actually playing great defense.

One last Davis item: Dual is 6'5" 205 - a tall, strong physical player. Davis had little problem with him ... it helps that Dual is not a scorer, at all, I'll admit. But still, Davis matched up well, and to RU's advantage, against the taller stronger PG in THIS game.

RU's Substitution / Rotation Patterns:

I charted every substitution, marking the time the player entered, and who he replaced.

Starters Half #1: Ogbole, Bailey, Harper, Williams, Davis

15:40: Sommerville and Hayes in, Ogbole and Davis out - Sommerville, Bailey, Hayes, Harper, Williams.

14 min: Derkack in, Williams out.

12:50: I was wrong about why Bailey and Harper were out at the same time - it was NOT because Harper had 2 fouls ... Pikiell deliberately took out both Bailey and Harper, putting in Martini and Williams returning ... score was RU 5, SHU 9 at the time. 2:30 later it was RU 6, SHU 14, and Bailey and Harper came back ... The line-up was Sommerville, Martini, Derkack, Hayes and Williams. The sequence was as follows: RU turnover, RU stop of SHU, Derkakck 1-2 FT, Jenkins beat Williams easily on a face-cut in the lane, Sommerville missed an open 18' jumper, Toumi hits a 3 over Martini ... RU 6, SHU 14 ... end of that line-up.

10:24: Harper and Bailey back, Hayes and Sommerville out ... Martini, Bailey, Harper, Williams, Derkack in ... the next 3 minutes plus, score went from 6-14 to 15-18.

7 minutes: Hayes and Acuff in, Derkack and Williams out (Derkack with 2 fouls?). RU and SHU traded 3's and Harper picked up his 2nd foul.

6:09: Harper out with 2 fouls, Williams in ... Martini, Bailey, Hayes and Acuff in also. SHU scored a 2 point FG over Martini, Bailey scored , then SHU's Middleton hit a 3 over a lazy close by Martini, and Martini them missed the front-end of a 1 and 1. Just saying ... Martini, ugh!

4:55: Sommerville in, Martini out - never to be seen again in that game.

3 minutes: Harper back in with 2 fouls, RU 24, SHU 31. FYI, Harper immediately turned the ball over and Williams and Sommerville did not communicate in transition leading to an easy SHU basket.

1 minute: Davis and Derkack in, Harper and Acuff out.

20 Seconds: RU ball, Harper and Hayes in, Derkack and Davis out.

Second Half: Starters were the same, Ogbole, Bailey, Harper, Williams, Davis. Davis was just terrific on defense to start the half.

14:23: The first substitution, later than usual ... Derkakc and Sommerville in, Ogbole and Williams out ... Davis remained, with Harper and Bailey. RU outscored SHU 17-12 in the 1st 5:30 or so.

11 minutes: Williams in, Davis out

5 Minutes: Davis in, Williams out. RU used a time out after a make to both make this substitution and to give Bailey and Harper a bit of a rest, I would guess, before the next TV time out would give them a 2nd rest. Davis continued to defend against Dual.

3 minutes - TV time out ... Williams in, Derkack out. Davis on Dual, Williams on Jenkins. When Dual went out, Davis shifted to cover Jenkins.

No line-up changes until there were 19 seconds left: Derkack in, Sommerville out ... RU went small ball with Bailey at the 5. Then for the last play, with 6 seconds, left, Sommerville came back in and Davis went out.

Conclusion on Rotation:

When Pikiell shortens the bench, he basically plays 6-8 players down the stretch, after Ogbole is subbed for: Sommerville, Bailey, Harper, Williams, Derkack, Davis ... and SOMETIMES Hayes and/or Acuff ... Martini in spots until he fails - then to the bench. Pikiell has a longer bench in the 1st half ... 10 players. I am going to guess that against teams with bigger and more effective post players, Ogbole will get more minutes if fouls permit, making it an 8 player rotation: Center of Sommerville/Ogbole (2 players), Bailey, Harper, Williams, Derkack, Davis (5 players), ... and in spots, Hayes, 1st, then Acuff/Martini. Grant may eventually enter into the rotation in situations, instead of Martini or as a 3rd "5".

Hope all this helps.

P.S. Princeton could be a totally different beast given their 3-point shooting )less Ogbole/Sommerville, more Bailey at the "5". When Abdullah or Huggins (non-3point shooters) are in, Ogbole and Sommerville could be effective ... a sometimes starter at 6'9" is Byriel, who shoots 3's. Expect to see Williams beginning to defend versus Lee, Davis on Dalen Davis (Princeton's top 2 scorers) ... not sure who gets Pierce - Bailey or Harper? Probably Bailey, as the size fits, and Pierce is their best rebounder. But Harper is a better defender. We shall see.

 

[Southside Lonny]

Your analysis regarding Davis is corroborative of what I've seen with my eyes as well as my intuitive sense that his playing time is based on defense. That being said, and while I welcome his enhanced role, I would prefer to not see him attempt an outside shot or drive to the hoop ever again.

 

[winfield102]

SHU is a terrible team offensively, right? They scored 33 in the 1st half and 30 in the 2nd half. I was thinking we must have really shut them down in the second half after reading your post. We scored 30 and 39.

Our next 4 B1G games will tell us about his defense and his value.

Ultimately, him getting playing time is an indictment of his teammates inability to play defense. He's a likable kid because he works hard.

 

[RUDivision]

SHU is a terrible team offensively, right? They scored 33 in the 1st half and 30 in the 2nd half. I was thinking we must have really shut them down in the second half after reading your post. We scored 30 and 39.

Our next 4 B1G games will tell us about his defense and his value.

Ultimately, him getting playing time is an indictment of his teammates inability to play defense. He's a likable kid because he works hard.

Like able young man and much needed in the locker room.

Now we all agree he is an all time horrific offensive player. So before we get to defense he is already a player who going into a game can offer help his team on half of the court. Any statistic for defense that matters steals, rebounds, block he is averaging 0. Actually less than 1 through 11 games.
He is an average defender and charting his play against the worst offense in college basketball is not the reason to play him. It’s indictment on Pike and the fan base that you would even consider playing at all.

A player who cannot offer any value on offense and hinders the team allowing are stars to be doubled and tripled. That player better be a Caleb like player on D to make up for his offensive incompetence.

His D is ok and the first 9 games of the year was Bad! Charting one game where he was competent against an all time bad offense is not the answer .

 

[lion1983]

Division is, as always, both simplistic and ignorant.

Steals, blocked shots and rebounds are NOT the measure of defense. They can be some elements of defense, but are not "defense."

You can cause turnovers without steals - Davis caused at least 3 turnovers, maybe more, due to his on-ball pressure.

You can PREVENT shots, or harass players into taking more difficult or poor shots, leading to rebounds for your teammates even though you don't get the rebound yourself - Davis did this multiple times versus SHU.

You can force a team to go ISO for FEAR of a steal by playing the passing lanes - which makes a team less efficient if they have no ISO players - Holloway himself stated that SHU went too much ISO in the 2nd half, rather than pass and share the ball ... Davis was not the only reason for that, but when watching the game you can see that his ability to shut off/cut off either Dual or Jenkins was a material reason for more ISO by SHU in the 2nd half.

No one, by the way, is saying Davis' defense in the 1st 9 games was good. I, for one, have openly expressed my disappointment in the quality of his defense in those games. But SHU is not the first or only game that his defense is "back." Davis was equally effective, though in a different way, in the PSU game, where his primary defensive responsibility was defending Ace Baldwin, PSU's leading scorer - and was a significant reason Baldwin went 3-14 FG with 3 turnovers (Harper also played Baldwin well, when covering Baldwin when Davis was out of the game). And versus PSU there is no doubt whatsoever that Davis' defensive intensity to start the game fueled RU's overall defensive intensity.

I will admit that Davis is not the level of McConnell on defense (who is or was? McConnell was literally the best defensive player in the country for 2 years running). But last season he was way better than merely an average defensive player, and while his defense was well below what could earn him playing time in the 1st 9 games in my opinion, the last TWO games it has been well above average.

And Davis is not an "all time horrific" offensive player. He has not been efficient,, yes, and that has hurt the offense. BUT ... lately he limits that damage by not taking that many shots. Simpson, for example, who by many accounts is supposedly the better offensive player, last year literally had the worst FG% IN THE COUNTRY - and kept jacking up shots. THAT is more damaging than what Davis has done to RU's offense this year.

Anyway, the comparison is not what Davis does on offense versus what he does on defense. Instead, the comparison is does his NET defense vs offense help the team MLORE or LESS than the players who would take his place: Martini, Acuff, Hayes, basically. And I think it is pretty clear that at least the last TWO games, Davis' net impact for the positive is greater than than Acuff's Hayes or Martini's net positive impact. The fact that Hayes is a much better shooter is irrelevant if he cannot get any shots - that then just leaves Hayes (or Acuff's, or Martini's) contributions on defense to counterbalance Davis' defensive contributions. And that is a no brainer.

 

[RUDivision]

Division is, as always, both simplistic and ignorant.

Steals, blocked shots and rebounds are NOT the measure of defense. They can be some elements of defense, but are not "defense."

You can cause turnovers without steals - Davis caused at least 3 turnovers, maybe more, due to his on-ball pressure.

You can PREVENT shots, or harass players into taking more difficult or poor shots, leading to rebounds for your teammates even though you don't get the rebound yourself - Davis did this multiple times versus SHU.

You can force a team to go ISO for FEAR of a steal by playing the passing lanes - which makes a team less efficient if they have no ISO players - Holloway himself stated that SHU went too much ISO in the 2nd half, rather than pass and share the ball ... Davis was not the only reason for that, but when watching the game you can see that his ability to shut off/cut off either Dual or Jenkins was a material reason for more ISO by SHU in the 2nd half.

No one, by the way, is saying Davis' defense in the 1st 9 games was good. I, for one, have openly expressed my disappointment in the quality of his defense in those games. But SHU is not the first or only game that his defense is "back." Davis was equally effective, though in a different way, in the PSU game, where his primary defensive responsibility was defending Ace Baldwin, PSU's leading scorer - and was a significant reason Baldwin went 3-14 FG with 3 turnovers (Harper also played Baldwin well, when covering Baldwin when Davis was out of the game). And versus PSU there is no doubt whatsoever that Davis' defensive intensity to start the game fueled RU's overall defensive intensity.

I will admit that Davis is not the level of McConnell on defense (who is or was? McConnell was literally the best defensive player in the country for 2 years running). But last season he was way better than merely an average defensive player, and while his defense was well below what could earn him playing time in the 1st 9 games in my opinion, the last TWO games it has been well above average.

And Davis is not an "all time horrific" offensive player. He has not been efficient,, yes, and that has hurt the offense. BUT ... lately he limits that damage by not taking that many shots. Simpson, for example, who by many accounts is supposedly the better offensive player, last year literally had the worst FG% IN THE COUNTRY - and kept jacking up shots. THAT is more damaging than what Davis has done to RU's offense this year.

Anyway, the comparison is not what Davis does on offense versus what he does on defense. Instead, the comparison is does his NET defense vs offense help the team MLORE or LESS than the players who would take his place: Martini, Acuff, Hayes, basically. And I think it is pretty clear that at least the last TWO games, Davis' net impact for the positive is greater than than Acuff's Hayes or Martini's net positive impact. The fact that Hayes is a much better shooter is irrelevant if he cannot get any shots - that then just leaves Hayes (or Acuff's, or Martini's) contributions on defense to counterbalance Davis' defensive contributions. And that is a no brainer.

I forgot more basketball than you typing this note. I welcome getting together and watching a game together to try and see what you see and vice versa.

Now, defense is everything you outlined and you’re absolutely correct.

I outlined the stats only to show statically he offers 0. So statistically on defense nothing and zero on the offense end nothing at all D1 level. SO he better be the greatest defender in all of the little things you outlined above and he’s absolutely not. 2 good halves with 5 positive plays in 2 starts while allowing both teams to jump out to a lead.

My favorite Ru player all time is Caleb. It’s Caleb because of all the ways he took teams out of its offense by his positioning on the floor, help defense, guard 1-5, shutting down the best player, rebound, understand the other teams action and move before the offense complete ruining the play. He was an artist and excelled in all of the contributing factors you outlined above.

None of which show up with JMike consistently in a game let alone a season. An occasional 3 plays against SHU (historically bad offense) or 2 against PSU after 11 complete games is a comicsl justifcation to play him.

Offensively is absolutely horrific and you trying to color that any other way ruins your credibility. Cannot shoot, cannot drive, cannot finish, create shots for others with 2 of the greatest scorers in the country can’t even trip into an assist.

 

[lion1983]

Division: Feel free to put me on ignore. As I am doing with you. There is no basis for a discussion between us, so it is a waste of my time.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I saw what you saw regarding Davis, but sometimes what i see live changes when you watch a 2nd time with a rewind button. Nice to see you confirm.

I remember last year vs Princeton i came to the conclusion Gavin was awful defensively. Someone @RUChoppin ? Broke down each of the possessions and was able to identify a lot of the breakdowns were more other people’s fault (a lot of Hyatt). So 3-4 people were awful.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Rudivision not being objective. I am opinionated but will readily admit when i am wrong.

No one will argue 2 things
1. Davis was not good defensively the 1st 9 games
2. He is an awful offensive player

The debate of most nights his D cant make up for his offense is certainly fair

Not acknowledging that Davis didnt have a significant positive impact on the defense end the past 2 games is just flat out wrong. End of story.

 

[lion1983]

I saw what you saw regarding Davis, but sometimes what i see live changes when you watch a 2nd time with a rewind button. Nice to see you confirm.

I remember last year vs Princeton i came to the conclusion Gavin was awful defensively. Someone @RUChoppin ? Broke down each of the possessions and was able to identify a lot of the breakdowns were more other people’s fault (a lot of Hyatt). So 3-4 people were awful.

Look, Davis has only been that good on defense this year the last 2 games (which has been a disappointment) - I want him to, and RU probably needs him to, be like this all the time. But he will never be McConnell, who was, quite simply, a generational defender - and 6'7" as well. At 6'2" Davis will never be able to do the things McConnel could do - that is an unfair standard. And frankly, he has GOT to hit his FT's at 65% to 70% clip or it is tough to have him on the court in end game situations in close games, even with top level defense. He had been 7-11 before SHU - which would be on the margin of OK - the 0-2 takes him to 7-13 on the season ... a way too small sample size. It would also help him and the team a LOT if he can hit some of those mid-range shots. He took a very good mid-range shot vs SHU - he dribble penetrated after a pump fake, I think, then pulled up for a 10' shot near the baseline rather than drive to the rim and get stuffed ... but missed. Thise are shots that are important to make a decent percentage of. But he is only taking 1-2 of those per game the last couple of games, so it is hard to get any read on whether he can really hit them.

Also, I think Davis may never get a lot of steals, and at 6'2" he's not going to get a lot of blocked shots. But he partly does not get steals because he does NOT gamble, Rather he focuses on staying in front of his man, arms extended (look at how he played Dual the 2nd half of SHU in particular - thus preventing dribble penetration, and with the arms extended, limits the angles the offensive player can use to make passes. And off the ball the last 2 games , he does not gamble either - he does not get into the direct passing lane and risk a back-door cut. Rather, he plays at an angle to the passing lane - not preventing a pass, but limiting the quality of the pass to the man he is defending, forcing the player wanting to pass to his man to think and be careful with the pass - slowing down the other team's ability to move the defense by ball movement (because it slows the passes) ... and allowing Davis to attack the player he is defending at the 3-point line without being out of position.

The above is hard to quantify in stats, but a very valid way to defend well. Contrast his style (and it is a defensive style) to Williams' style. Williams gets a lot of steals - but he also gambles a lot, and gives up back doors, and when he misses the steal or disruption, a scramble can result that leaves other RU defenders out of position trying to cover. Davis disrupts differently.

NBow, McConnell - a different beats altogether, and at 6'7" could make up for a lot of gambles. McConnell could play tight, could gamble - but was instinctive enough and quick enough ,,, and LONG enough to both play the passing lanes aggressively to make steals, but also recover quickly enough with speed AND length to cut off back-doors or to recover from missed gambles. A special player, no doubt.

 

[RUDivision]

Rudivision not being objective. I am opinionated but will readily admit when i am wrong.

No one will argue 2 things
1. Davis was not good defensively the 1st 9 games
2. He is an awful offensive player

The debate of most nights his D cant make up for his offense is certainly fair

Not acknowledging that Davis didnt have a significant positive impact on the defense end the past 2 games is just flat out wrong. End of story.

Green
I acknowledge he had 2-3 impactful plays against SHU and 2 against PSU while playing good on Baldwin but it was far from great. Baldwin shot at the end was an open look btw.

Now if we agree on the first two of your bullet points above then what are we even discussing.

We have 2 generational talents and we all want to go as far as possible.

We are pushing for a player who using your words was not good defensively for 9 of 11 games and is an awful offensive player. Factor in his size going into conference play and we’re seriously debating if that player needs more minutes?

In what basketball D1 world would a (using your words) awful offensive player who is under sized, and bad for 9-11 games defensively play at all? That players “ best” defensive game was against a historical bad offenses in SHU.

Somehow we have a head coach and fan base think it is a good idea to start that player?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Unfortunately it might be the best plan with this roster.

 

[Scangg]

I forgot more basketball than you typing this note. I welcome getting together and watching a game together to try and see what you see and vice versa.

Now, defense is everything you outlined and you’re absolutely correct.

I outlined the stats only to show statically he offers 0. So statistically on defense nothing and zero on the offense end nothing at all D1 level. SO he better be the greatest defender in all of the little things you outlined above and he’s absolutely not. 2 good halves with 5 positive plays in 2 starts while allowing both teams to jump out to a lead.

My favorite Ru player all time is Caleb. It’s Caleb because of all the ways he took teams out of its offense by his positioning on the floor, help defense, guard 1-5, shutting down the best player, rebound, understand the other teams action and move before the offense complete ruining the play. He was an artist and excelled in all of the contributing factors you outlined above.

None of which show up with JMike consistently in a game let alone a season. An occasional 3 plays against SHU (historically bad offense) or 2 against PSU after 11 complete games is a comicsl justifcation to play him.

Offensively is absolutely horrific and you trying to color that any other way ruins your credibility. Cannot shoot, cannot drive, cannot finish, create shots for others with 2 of the greatest scorers in the country can’t even trip into an assist.

Caleb was national defensive player of the year and 2x B1G DPOY

If your bar is "is he as good as Caleb", no one will ever be a good defender

Come back to reality

 

[RUDivision]

Caleb was national defensive player of the year and 2x B1G DPOY

If your bar is "is he as good as Caleb", no one will ever be a good defender

Come back to reality

I hear you and agree!

My point was someone who is a complete liability on offense and most of the season on D needs to be on Caleb’s level defensively to play let alone start.

Clearly he’s one of one .

 

[satnom]

JMike should not be compared to Caleb who 6’6” with long arms just on measurables alone, let alone on ability. Want to compare JMike as a defensive stopper to a like sized player and he’s not even close to Jacob Young nor Derrick Simpson.

JMike has quick feet and athletic and can tire out smaller guards but not much else.

GO RU