It is time for a new season, and my usual pre-game feature ... posted when I have the time, and the energy (last year only had the energy for about half the games).
This particular post will be noticeably thin on stats and fact-based analysis (my strong preference to include), since there have been no games played this year, and since RU has a totally, 100% different coaching staff, and completely and brand new offensive and defensive philosophies, schemes, formations, etc. ... and because none of us (nor most writers, or even Washington) know what those schemes or formations will look like.
Reasons for RU Fans To Hope For A Win:
1) RU returns many starters on offense and defense. Yeah, I know RU sucked last year, so maybe returning starters are not such a great thing. On the other hand, in college players DO improve from year to year, and sometimes by a lot. By my count, RU returns 6 starters on defense and 8 starters on offense. Returning 14 starters is a good thing, generally. Other reasons to hope will touch on this aspect in greater detail.
2) RU returns 4 starting OL ... and as stout as Washington's defense is, with all its returning starters, Washington DID lose its top 2 DE's (it looks like they run a 3-4 defense). One of RU's strengths this year might be its OL - and Washington lost its 2 best pass rushers from last year. A good OL can help a team a lot. It might help RU rush the ball better. It might help RU protect the passer better. All that might mean RU might be able to move the ball a little, and keep RU's defense, and Washington's offense off the field.
3) RU returns ALL its running backs. And they are good ones. Martin, Hicks and Goodwin are all back, and by all accounts are all improved. A good running game is a QB's and Offensive Coordinator's best friend.
4) RU effectively returns 3 starters on the defensive line. Plus several players who got a lot of playing time (Lambert, Bateky, D. Davis, Wilkins, Wiafe). And do not underestimate the return of Hamilton, who has been RU's best defensive lineman, by a margin, when able to play. This DL will face a large, and solid OL for Washington - but Washington does have 2 new OL starters.
5) RU's overall defense ought to be much better than last season. Sure, many pundits, and people on this message board as well, cite how bad RU's defense was last year - and of course they would be accurate. Perhaps that was bad defensive schemes, which will be fixed, hopefully, this year and in the future. But, certainly a part of the poor defensive play was the loss of so many of RU's defensive backs, many just before the season started. Do not forget that RU had to play at least 4 redshirt or true Freshman DB's a ton of plays last season. Austin, Hampton and Wharton are all a year older, more experienced and stronger. Also, do not underestimate the negative affect on the defense of not having Hamilton all season.
6) RU's returns its starting QB. Yes, I know that Laviano is not ideal for running RU's new offense. Of course, he was not ideal for running a pro offense either. And yes, he was mostly poor against the better teams RU faced last season. On the other hand, his overall stats were semi-respectable for a Sophomore (not great, but not awful, either) - though he did have several truly awful games. But there IS hope he could improve over last season - QB'soften (though not always) do improve from year to year in college.
7) Washington has no idea what RU's offensive schemes will be. Sure, they can look at Ohio State, Houston and James Madison for clues. But they really cannot know, so their defensive prep has to be necessarily guesswork. They can have no idea how RU will adapt the philosophy of the power spread to the QB RU has playing. My guess is Washington will have a better idea about RU's likely defensive schemes.
8) Washington's offense was rather inconsistent last year. At times Washington's offense was quite dynamic. At times it was turnover prone and sluggish. And that was playing in the defense-poor PAC 12. While Washington does return its starting QB and top RB, it also has to replace 2 OL and its top WR. So, where many might expect RU to be weakest (defense), at least it is not clear just how good Washington's offense will be to exploit that weakness.
Reasons for RU Fans To Worry About a Loss:
1) Washington returns a LOT of starters - and from a team better than RU was last season. Washington returns 15 or 16 starters, depending how you count them, from a team that was better than RU was last season. This is really the biggest advantage Washington has. Washington returns their starting QB, starting RB, 3 OL, their starting DT's (both), 3 starting LB (out of 4) and 3 starting DB's.
2) RU returns NO starting LB's. This is a problem, and RU's biggest defensive question mark. I could go on, but I think this says it all.
3) RU has no proven playmaker in the passing game. A proven playmaker in the passing game opens things up for the entire offense. RU lost Carroo - and we saw first hand how much better Carroo made the running game, and how much better any QB looks with Carroo in there. As dynamic as we might think Grant is, he is hardly a proven playmaker at WR. And we have no idea whether players like Harris and Bailey will be playmakers either - or if they become so, when. We know Tsimis, Patton, Agudosi and Mathews are decent at best.
4) RU's special teams are a major question mark. Other than Grant's return capabilities, RU has to assume its FG and punting will be unreliable until proven otherwise. That puts a lot of pressure on all other aspects of RU's team.
5) RU has a new head coach and a new coaching staff. True, this is hopefully a benefit, and a reason to hope. On the other hand, it is also a FACT that Ash has never been the head coach of any team at any level, and this game will be his first ever game he is leading any team. None of us know for sure how well Ash will game day - or even game prep - the team. Washington's head coach, on the other hand , has demonstrated his capability as a head coach for a number of years.
6) RU's QB does not appear to be an ideal fit for the offense RU wants to run. It is clear Laviano, though the #1 choice to start for RU now, is not an ideal, or even maybe a good, fit for RU's offensive philosophy. This could have obvious ramifications for RU's offense - and not good ones .. unless the OL is markedly better than expected, and the running game is truly great.
That is all. Obviously, Washington is (and should be) the heavy favorite, based on them returning more starters, from a team that was better than RU last year, and closed strongly. They have at least partially earned their pre-season ranking. RU is coming off a bad season, with a lot of turmoil, no WR or QB playmakers, no experience at LB (and I mean NONE) and an coaching staff which has a lot of answers to deliver. RU fans can hope for a win, and hope for a competitive game if RU cannot win. But the reasons to worry are more powerful than the reasons to hope, unfortunately ... until proven otherwise.
This particular post will be noticeably thin on stats and fact-based analysis (my strong preference to include), since there have been no games played this year, and since RU has a totally, 100% different coaching staff, and completely and brand new offensive and defensive philosophies, schemes, formations, etc. ... and because none of us (nor most writers, or even Washington) know what those schemes or formations will look like.
Reasons for RU Fans To Hope For A Win:
1) RU returns many starters on offense and defense. Yeah, I know RU sucked last year, so maybe returning starters are not such a great thing. On the other hand, in college players DO improve from year to year, and sometimes by a lot. By my count, RU returns 6 starters on defense and 8 starters on offense. Returning 14 starters is a good thing, generally. Other reasons to hope will touch on this aspect in greater detail.
2) RU returns 4 starting OL ... and as stout as Washington's defense is, with all its returning starters, Washington DID lose its top 2 DE's (it looks like they run a 3-4 defense). One of RU's strengths this year might be its OL - and Washington lost its 2 best pass rushers from last year. A good OL can help a team a lot. It might help RU rush the ball better. It might help RU protect the passer better. All that might mean RU might be able to move the ball a little, and keep RU's defense, and Washington's offense off the field.
3) RU returns ALL its running backs. And they are good ones. Martin, Hicks and Goodwin are all back, and by all accounts are all improved. A good running game is a QB's and Offensive Coordinator's best friend.
4) RU effectively returns 3 starters on the defensive line. Plus several players who got a lot of playing time (Lambert, Bateky, D. Davis, Wilkins, Wiafe). And do not underestimate the return of Hamilton, who has been RU's best defensive lineman, by a margin, when able to play. This DL will face a large, and solid OL for Washington - but Washington does have 2 new OL starters.
5) RU's overall defense ought to be much better than last season. Sure, many pundits, and people on this message board as well, cite how bad RU's defense was last year - and of course they would be accurate. Perhaps that was bad defensive schemes, which will be fixed, hopefully, this year and in the future. But, certainly a part of the poor defensive play was the loss of so many of RU's defensive backs, many just before the season started. Do not forget that RU had to play at least 4 redshirt or true Freshman DB's a ton of plays last season. Austin, Hampton and Wharton are all a year older, more experienced and stronger. Also, do not underestimate the negative affect on the defense of not having Hamilton all season.
6) RU's returns its starting QB. Yes, I know that Laviano is not ideal for running RU's new offense. Of course, he was not ideal for running a pro offense either. And yes, he was mostly poor against the better teams RU faced last season. On the other hand, his overall stats were semi-respectable for a Sophomore (not great, but not awful, either) - though he did have several truly awful games. But there IS hope he could improve over last season - QB'soften (though not always) do improve from year to year in college.
7) Washington has no idea what RU's offensive schemes will be. Sure, they can look at Ohio State, Houston and James Madison for clues. But they really cannot know, so their defensive prep has to be necessarily guesswork. They can have no idea how RU will adapt the philosophy of the power spread to the QB RU has playing. My guess is Washington will have a better idea about RU's likely defensive schemes.
8) Washington's offense was rather inconsistent last year. At times Washington's offense was quite dynamic. At times it was turnover prone and sluggish. And that was playing in the defense-poor PAC 12. While Washington does return its starting QB and top RB, it also has to replace 2 OL and its top WR. So, where many might expect RU to be weakest (defense), at least it is not clear just how good Washington's offense will be to exploit that weakness.
Reasons for RU Fans To Worry About a Loss:
1) Washington returns a LOT of starters - and from a team better than RU was last season. Washington returns 15 or 16 starters, depending how you count them, from a team that was better than RU was last season. This is really the biggest advantage Washington has. Washington returns their starting QB, starting RB, 3 OL, their starting DT's (both), 3 starting LB (out of 4) and 3 starting DB's.
2) RU returns NO starting LB's. This is a problem, and RU's biggest defensive question mark. I could go on, but I think this says it all.
3) RU has no proven playmaker in the passing game. A proven playmaker in the passing game opens things up for the entire offense. RU lost Carroo - and we saw first hand how much better Carroo made the running game, and how much better any QB looks with Carroo in there. As dynamic as we might think Grant is, he is hardly a proven playmaker at WR. And we have no idea whether players like Harris and Bailey will be playmakers either - or if they become so, when. We know Tsimis, Patton, Agudosi and Mathews are decent at best.
4) RU's special teams are a major question mark. Other than Grant's return capabilities, RU has to assume its FG and punting will be unreliable until proven otherwise. That puts a lot of pressure on all other aspects of RU's team.
5) RU has a new head coach and a new coaching staff. True, this is hopefully a benefit, and a reason to hope. On the other hand, it is also a FACT that Ash has never been the head coach of any team at any level, and this game will be his first ever game he is leading any team. None of us know for sure how well Ash will game day - or even game prep - the team. Washington's head coach, on the other hand , has demonstrated his capability as a head coach for a number of years.
6) RU's QB does not appear to be an ideal fit for the offense RU wants to run. It is clear Laviano, though the #1 choice to start for RU now, is not an ideal, or even maybe a good, fit for RU's offensive philosophy. This could have obvious ramifications for RU's offense - and not good ones .. unless the OL is markedly better than expected, and the running game is truly great.
That is all. Obviously, Washington is (and should be) the heavy favorite, based on them returning more starters, from a team that was better than RU last year, and closed strongly. They have at least partially earned their pre-season ranking. RU is coming off a bad season, with a lot of turmoil, no WR or QB playmakers, no experience at LB (and I mean NONE) and an coaching staff which has a lot of answers to deliver. RU fans can hope for a win, and hope for a competitive game if RU cannot win. But the reasons to worry are more powerful than the reasons to hope, unfortunately ... until proven otherwise.
