J Mike and J Will played 26 and 23 minutes a piece on a top 5 rated defense last year.
Basketball Rutgers overwhelmed at No. 18 Purdue with feeble defensive effort
- Thread starter Richie O
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J Mike and J Will played 26 and 23 minutes a piece on a top 5 rated defense last year.
I dunno man, he got top 70 defense out of sophomore Corey Sanders and a band of misfit toys coming off a season when we were #236 on defense. Defense is kind of his thing, I don't think it's a stretch he could put together a roster of transfers, JWill, JMike, Derkack that can play solid D. Whether it can score more than 45 points per game is a larger concern imo. If we suck next year I expect it to look a lot more like 2023-24 than like this season.
both too small to play in Pike's D.. effectively I mean. It the length and switching that makes Pike'd D work.. and when they switch and end up on a big man.. bad news.
As I said - they both played more than half the game on average for us last season and we finished with the 5th ranked D.
And they play on this years D also... I think Cliff erased a lot of mistakes last year.
Fair but those same guys are playing this year. JMike not a Power 4 player Dercack not a Power 4 player. At his best Jwill is a rotational Power 4 player. Now your going to ask them to score and play D with Lathan has your center? lol good luck
No. Or, at least, I hope not.
Like I do think that is one possible path we end up on next season but I agree with you that it is not a good path and it likely gives us a team that looks a lot like last season. If next year looks like last year I don't think there is any way Pike survives that.
Steve Pikiell is a defense first coach at heart. I can guarantee you he is more embarrassed by the shit defense this year than he was by the shit offense last year, and I would be very surprised if he repeats the same mistakes. He will recruit for defense. He will try to get back to his roots and natural style as a coach.
Will it work? I mean I guess it depends what qualifies as "work". I would be absolutely shocked if we are better than borderline bubble team next year.
To me the bull scenario is:
- We find some decent transfers who know defense, we get good development out of returning pieces, we manage to put together a team with like #100 offense and #10-15 defense that is a borderline type bubble team. Maybe we get in, maybe we don't, and there is an actually interesting debate next season as to whether Pikiell should stay, the correct answer to which likely hinges on who the realistic alternatives are.
The bear scenario is:
- Same but the transfers are less good on both sides, we are like #40 on defense and #200 on offense, we are a borderline bubble... Big Ten Tournament team and Pike will have zero support here (except maybe for people who just point at the #s left on his contract)
Another year like this year with decent offense but terrible defense is very, very unlikely imo. It's a huge outlier in Pike's coaching history.
In 2016-17, we were ranked 87th in DRtg (70th adjusted for opponent). The team was coming off a terrible prior year where injuries decimated our bigs and we ended up with 6-8/240 DJ Foreman playing 20 min at center alongside 6-6/215 Jonathan Laurent at PF.
These were all the guys taller than 6-3 on the roster in 2015-16
7-0 Doorson: Out for season
6-10 Diallo: Missed 17 games with injury midseason
6-9 Lewis: Hampered most of the season with injury, averaged 20.1 min not at full health
6-8 Foreman
6-7 Freeman: Missed 23 games with injury midseason
6-6 Laurent
6-4 Grier
Just having healthy post defenders was going to lift that DRtg significantly. In 2016-17, we got full seasons from Doorson, Diallo, and Freeman... and added Gettys and Sa.
The B10 also had just 6 of 12 teams in the Adj DRtg Top 50 in Pike's first year, whereas there are 12 of 18 this year. I don't see any path to a top 50 DRtg next year.
These were all the guys taller than 6-3 on the roster in 2015-16
7-0 Doorson: Out for season
6-10 Diallo: Missed 17 games with injury midseason
6-9 Lewis: Hampered most of the season with injury, averaged 20.1 min not at full health
6-8 Foreman
6-7 Freeman: Missed 23 games with injury midseason
6-6 Laurent
6-4 Grier
Just having healthy post defenders was going to lift that DRtg significantly. In 2016-17, we got full seasons from Doorson, Diallo, and Freeman... and added Gettys and Sa.
The B10 also had just 6 of 12 teams in the Adj DRtg Top 50 in Pike's first year, whereas there are 12 of 18 this year. I don't see any path to a top 50 DRtg next year.
Bolded is not relevant right? I'm talking about adjusted DRtg not raw D rating.
Do you really think we're going to have less talent around than 2016-17?
Sorry, typo. I meant 6 of 12 B1G teams had an adjusted Offensive Rtg in the top 50, and now that has doubled. We may have more talent than 2015, but so does the B1G after a decade of changes to the college basketball landscape.
Top 50 Adj DRtg next year is a very tall order, made taller with more first year mercenaries.
No my point was it doesn’t matter how good the opponents’ offense is since we are talking about something that adjusts for that.
So you think that our defense is going to spring into the Top 50 next year, adjusted for opponent, against a 20-game gauntlet in the 2025-26 Big Ten. And you think we can do this with at least half of the players either being underclassmen (if we keep everyone, we have 6 underclassmen) or new to Rutgers (if just one transfers out, we'll be half newbies). Just by bringing in some as-yet-unknown defensive-minded portal transfers from other systems that have never met before and are either a) stepping up in competition or b) struggled at their last stop?
That's a pretty far stretch, but I hope you're right.
I don't know why you keep saying the bolded. It's adjusted for opponent!
Do you think we're not going to have significantly more defensive talent than 2016-17? I mean, if that's the case, what are we even doing? What are you expecting to see next year.
In my opinion, the only way we dont end up in the top 50 in D is if we decide to run with our current frontcourt. We will not improve much if we do that. Getting a center that defends the post at least as well as CJ Gettys is mandatory.
Because surviving through this league without injury is hard, and cross country travel and loose B1G road whistles are grueling.
It's not just each opponent in a vacuum.... this league is a meat grinder that is physically/mentally difficult to get through.
Also, "talent" is only one part of defense. Bailey is loads more talented than McConnell was... but that doesn't equate to better defense. Good team defense is as much about connectedness, communication, shared reps, chemistry, etc.... Things you don't just automatically get by bringing in new talent.
I love your optimism. I just don't share it.
Who said optimism? Our offense might be close to as bad as last years. Having good defenses hasn’t always translated into winning records for Pike. It’s quite possible we don’t turn this around in terms of our record, but I still say regardless that he will field a competitive D. He always has until this year. I’m not sure why one would assume he wouldn’t? The anomaly was playing and recruiting to the styles of Dylan and Ace. That goes away next season.
NO the anomaly was Pike allowing Sommerville to dictate terms and not having a competent Big man. Our defensive problems are definitely not Dylan and Ace. Our problems are NO Big man. No one to rebound , defend without getting pushed around, block shots, and own the paint. It’s a highway to the rim so our guards sag to help and keep guys from driving. Which leads to wide open 3’s.
That problem doesn’t go away next year. Good luck Pike!
It's not just that as an anomaly.
Returning % of minutes, and Adj DRtg (kenpom)
2016-17: 46.5% (70) (Pike's first year, so these guys were returners but were learning a new system)
2017-18: 67.7% (28)
2018-19: 51.6% (46)
2019-20: 71.3% (6)
2020-21: 81.7% (16)
2021-22: 61.0% (53)
2022-23: 63.5% (6)
2023-24: 51.5% (5)
2024-25: 17.4% (135)
Next year, we will return at maximum 50.8% of our minutes, if every player returns. If we lose Sommerville, that drops to 40.4%. If we lose Sommerville and Williams, it drops to 29.2%.
Pike has done well building on prior years and having returning players around the newbies to help bring them along. We had virtually none of that this year, and risk not having much of it next year, either.
He hasn’t necessarily “done well”. The defense has been strong not the offense. I think your creating a somewhat random correlation. 2016-17 returnees were no different from recruiting from the portal. Pike wasn’t the prior coach and any experience gained from a 7 win team with a far worse statistical defense than the one we have now is pretty meaningless.
To me - the common denominator is simply Pike. He recruits and emphasizes defense first. He does that well - for better or worse. He didn’t do it his way this year and this is the result. If Pike had recruited 2 kids like sophomore Caleb McConnell instead of PJ Hayes and Acuff our D would’ve been a lot better.
He's "done well" defensively - all of my comments have been related to the defense, not to the team as a whole.
Yes, the first year he had a bunch of new-to-him players, but most had been with the program already and new each other and campus/classes/etc (46.5% returning minutes, plus Doorson in his 3rd year who'd missed the prior season with injury). And he managed to get that team to 70 (not Top 50). I don't think 70 is necessarily out of the realm of possibility, but 50 is a big stretch to me given what we have returning.
Also, the "took a team from 236 to 70" is overstating. The 2015-16 team was bad, but it was also so riddled with injuries in the post that it could barely field a team for many games. We had a stretch where we only had two available guys taller than 6-4, and one was playing through injury (Lewis). The prior season, they were 110th in Adj DRtg when healthy - not good to be sure, but a far cry from 236th with the frontcourt in plain clothes.
I'm glad you and fluox feel that Pike will wave a magic wand and get the defense back up to the top 14% of all schools in a rebuilding year - but I'll believe it when I see it.
One last point before I head to bed.
These are the players Pikiell has brought in from the portal that played in the first season they stepped on campus (no redshirt year to acclimate), sorted by their total minutes that year. How many were impact defenders in their first year?
1070 - Spencer
739 - Yeboah (grad)
725 - Gettys (grad)
634 - Fernandes (grad)
543 - Kiss
502 - Derkack
480 - Martini (grad)
444 - Acuff (grad)
431 - Sa
409 - A. Williams (grad)
408 - Hyatt
392 - Carter
322 - J. Williams
256 - Hayes (grad)
180 - Mensah
123 - Agee (grad)
81 - Ogbole
And as a bonus, how many true freshmen were impact defenders in their first year?
These are the players Pikiell has brought in from the portal that played in the first season they stepped on campus (no redshirt year to acclimate), sorted by their total minutes that year. How many were impact defenders in their first year?
1070 - Spencer
739 - Yeboah (grad)
725 - Gettys (grad)
634 - Fernandes (grad)
543 - Kiss
502 - Derkack
480 - Martini (grad)
444 - Acuff (grad)
431 - Sa
409 - A. Williams (grad)
408 - Hyatt
392 - Carter
322 - J. Williams
256 - Hayes (grad)
180 - Mensah
123 - Agee (grad)
81 - Ogbole
And as a bonus, how many true freshmen were impact defenders in their first year?
Look - we’ve been top 70 in all of his other 8 years and 53 or better on D every season except his first one. As Fluox pointed out, his defenses have always been strong for a midmajor at other stops in his career as well. At face value that says this season is the exception and not the rule. That doesn’t mean we’ll turn around our lack of success (many of his strong defensive teams finished with losing records) but smart money says he’s capable of fixing the defense, because, you know - he’s actually never before fielded a poor defensive team.
It seems to me, your looking to find a pattern that supports the idea that Pike is unlikely to fix the D moving forward. Congrats I guess on identifying one possibility - but no matter how hard you try, there’s only one bad defensive season ever in his career to support what your trying to present as some kind of perpetual pattern. Again - 8 years - nothing worse than 70th rated D in his first year. Thats the fact pattern. Sure - maybe with more kids new to the program it will be harder for him - but you still only have this one season to go by. It’s also the one season in the mix that we didn’t have an experienced center. How do you know that’s not the reason. I don’t mean what Al says - don’t need a 7 figure level stud. CJ Gettys got the job done surrounded by far less talent. Ware looks like a replica of Lathan style wise so hopefully we have a plan to plug this gap on D via the portal. I see that as mandatory.
I believe the reality of the situation more broadly is that Pike didn’t coach this season the way he approaches other seasons because he was trying to conform to what he believed was best for Ace and Dylan. He did it a bit last year with Gavin (giving the kid way more of a chance than say Jaden Jones who was dumped to the pine once it became clear he didn’t play D) - Gavin got 17 mpg - and there should be no dispute that our D was good despite his defensive play. He was indesputably awful - had no idea how to play man to man on day one. All this said - maybe your right. Maybe I am. Either way - there is no “clear pattern” as he’s only had a bad defense ONCE at Rutgers this lone season.
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I feel that Pike is a good defensive coach, and a good teacher of defensive concepts. I don't feel either of those things happen overnight, or can be easily done from scratch in a single offseason with majority new players. There needs to be carry-over and experience, and an underclassman-laden, transfer-heavy class is a much harder group to move the defensive needle with than a group of returners. We'll have that same set up next year.
The last time before this year that Pikiell had an Adj D ranked below 90? Also the last time he had lower than 50% returning minutes. In 2013-14 with Stony Brook, just 41.0% of minutes returned and Adj D was 173rd.... the following year he had 92.3% of minutes return, and it jumped up to 88th.
This is a new world in college basketball, with much more player movement and a new need for external cash to retain players... it's new for everyone, and some are adapting more quickly than others. "Culture coaches" can no longer expect to develop players over time who internalize their philosophies and help accelerate the growth of new additions - unless they have plenty of donor money for retention every year.
Most of Pikiell's best defenders grew into that role - they were not automatic plug-and-play pickups from the portal or lockdown defenders as freshmen. They were "coached up" by a good defensive coach. Given that track record, it's hard to expect we'll see immediate impact defensively from our 4 incoming freshmen and 2+ portal players.
Realistically, I can see next year being a "righting of the ship" to get us back into the 65-75 range in Adj D, with a jump back into the Top 40-50 in 2026-27 if we can improve our retention rate.
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