Scheme vs. execution: Examining the first 10 offensive possessions (with pics)
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If the play design is for him to get to the basket and draw a foul great. But if he was cut off and has his defender not directly in front of him then pulling up for the jumper is the right shot , and then if he doesn’t make it , we can at least try to rebound the ball. 3 times in the Illinois game he had an opening to get his shot off from inside 15 feet but he hesitated and Shannon swatted it 2 times and another time it was slapped off the backboard on the way to the hole. He was not able to get to the rim against Illinois or did not know how to elevate his shot high off the backboard to prevent the swat. These are things he has to improve or should have had already in his tool bag.
Our inability (and at times unwillingness) to get to the rim against Illinois (team-wide) is part of what led to the huge foul discrepancy. The refs just weren't calling most non-shooting fouls.
So far this year, Simpson is shooing .269 on far twos (7-26)... which is worse than Omoruyi (7-23), though not nearly as bad as Hyatt (1-13). As a team, we're shooting .283 on far twos (32-113).
Last year, Simpson was 26-82 (.312) on far twos, making him 33-108 (.306) so far for his career. Maybe it's just not his shot.
Then you didn’t watch Illinois . I watched them courtside at the RAC and then at the Jimmy V Classic Tuesday at MSG. Leaving aside the RAC game for a minute , Domask and Shannon were incredibly efficient from 2 and the foul line, scoring 33 points each against a good FAU team. Domask was 15-21 from the field and 2-6 from 3 and 1-1 from the line , so he was 13-15 from 2 point range and basically in guard able mostly layups or shots within 10-12 feet. Shannon was 10-14 including 2-5 from 3 and 11-13 from the foul line , so he was 8 of 9 from 2 point range and drove like he did against us and got fouled a lot.
They both shot 33 % and 40% from 3 but shot 86 and 88% from 2 point range. Frankly , they weren’t very difficult shots either. They won that game against a very very good FAU team but making their 2 point mid range and layup shots.
The point is they are not , I repeat, not , far 2’s . No where close to the three point line. They are 15 feet and in and mostly 8-12 feet. That is a shot Derek should make 3 out 5 attempts at a minimum especially when most are taken without a guy in his face. Hyatt ‘s misses are mostly layups and Cliff’s misses are mostly layups or shots between 2-6 feet. Using the backboard and fundamentals would improve the chances of the shot going in tremendously.
My overall important point is Derek should be a good 2 point shooter. Because he wasn’t last year , when he was mostly out of control and throwing up a lot of shots , a number of wild shots , in trying to make an impact as a freshman , doesn’t mean he is going to or should shoot that bad from 2.
I was expecting and the coaching staff was expecting a huge rise in efficiency from him this year. So far it has not materialized but that doesn’t mean it is not his best shot or that hitting it more efficiently will help us win more games.
He did not apparently drive a lot or get fouled as he did not attempt a foul shot against Princeton , Boston U, or Wake Forest. In other games he was 8-8 ( Bryant ) ; 6-6 ( Georgetown ): 7-9 ( Howard ) ; 2-4 ( St. Peter’s ; and 4-4 ( Illinois ). So he appears to have been driving and getting fouled in those 5 games.
His 2 point shooting has been so far this year 1-5; 1-4; 2-8; 3-8 ; 5-8 ; 1-4; 0-5; and 2-6. So his shooting has not been good from 2 point range but it should not be this bad. Only the Howard game going 5-8 was above 50% and most of the games 20-25%. That must improve. Derek has to shoot better otherwise this season is not going anywhere ( although some people have already thrown on the towel )
Other sophomores are taking that leap , Bruce Thornton from Ohio State has gone from 10 points to 18 points a game. Derek averaging only 9.4 points a game with only 2 points , 7 points and 4 points in our 3 losses against Princeton , Illinois and Wake Forest is not helpful in RU winning games. They was no one in any of the 3 games that guarded him great , so he has to shoot better period.
I don't know how barttorvik defines "close" or "far" two, but Simpson is only 8-22 (.364) on close 2s so far this year, too (ahead of only Davis at 7-23, .304).
Excellent breakdown ineeed. But it does seem much more like execution than coacning. The sets are there, but they are being run poorly. Part of that is less talent and too may new pices at key positions.
It’s not about one game. Sure teams can hit high percentages from midrange in a single game but not over the long run, and any team that *can* shoot really well from midrange would likely be better off trying to move back.
I am not saying the midrange shot has no place in the game but it is like the #3 receiver in football. You take it when #1 and #2 aren’t there. It’s not what your goal should be, as layups or threes are almost always going to be better.
We should not be shooting any 2 point shots from 15 or deeper without 5 seconds left in the shot clock.
Derek has been TERRIBLE from this range so far.
You don't offer a lot if you can't get to the hole and can't shoot the 3 as a guard. Gotta be able to do 1 of them. Don't see him contributing much next year with the addition of Harper and the transfer that's currently sitting.
The analytics say that you won't have long term success when you go against the data. More failure than success. But let's ignore the data. Lol.
Derek has been TERRIBLE from this range so far.
You don't offer a lot if you can't get to the hole and can't shoot the 3 as a guard. Gotta be able to do 1 of them. Don't see him contributing much next year with the addition of Harper and the transfer that's currently sitting.
The analytics say that you won't have long term success when you go against the data. More failure than success. But let's ignore the data. Lol.
The point is not for Derek. Aundre , Gavin, Oscar should shoot as many 3 pointers over 2 pointers because they supposedly are 3 point shooters. Derek is not a 3 point shooter. He can improve from 3 point range but he has the skill set and ability to elevate and hit many 2 pointers. Everyone does different things to their strenghths . You saying that Derek shall either drive and hopefully hit layups or get fouled or shoot threes , something he is not great at and never shoot a 2 is just ridiculous analytics and is not sound basketball.
There are highly paid analysts working for NBA teams that will yeah you you're wrong.
NBA players are tremendous shooters and that is after years in the league and endless hours of practice and great coaching. The NBA is a 3 point shot fest. Every team shoots like 30-40 a night. Superstars hit a lot of them. Regular players hit a lot of them. Brunson hits a lot of them for the Knicks now but his best part of his game is his mid range and drive game and stopping on a dime and hitting 10 footer or 13-15 footer over an over again. It is the best part of his game. You want to eliminate that part of his game because you want me to believe some NBA analysts think shooting a 3 all the time is better. What hogwash you are pushing.
What a worthless comparison to the NCAA game . There might be about 10 players in college basketball that can shoot remotely like an NBA player. You trying to equate the 2 is guess what , just wrong.
Goru7,
In your mind, he hits 50% of his jump shots. In fact, he does not. Probably around 25% at best. That's the equivalent of a 17% 3 point shooter.
I agree that he isn't a good 3 point shooter but his "strength" isn't a strength. Him shooting 2 point jumpers from 15+ feet hurts the team.
The data is stacking up. He is consistently a poor 2 point jump shooter.
12 and in or 3's. He needs to make hay at the foul line. The opposing coaches have to be laughing at our stupidity. Derek is a great foul shooter and he's shooting jumpers.
In your mind, he hits 50% of his jump shots. In fact, he does not. Probably around 25% at best. That's the equivalent of a 17% 3 point shooter.
I agree that he isn't a good 3 point shooter but his "strength" isn't a strength. Him shooting 2 point jumpers from 15+ feet hurts the team.
The data is stacking up. He is consistently a poor 2 point jump shooter.
12 and in or 3's. He needs to make hay at the foul line. The opposing coaches have to be laughing at our stupidity. Derek is a great foul shooter and he's shooting jumpers.
I am not using last year’s data as he was forcing things to try to make an impression and shot too many times and a lot of them out of control .
Now I give you this years data does not look good so far . After 8 games , you going to call game . If am not advocating he shoots 18 footers close to the 3 point line , but I am saying his shooting from 2 point range from 8-15 feet will get substantially better. He can continue to drive and hopefully make some layups or get fouled . More importantly it will help increase our shooting % as a team , stop scoring droughts , stop momentum , and hopefully set us up for a run. Right now he has laid an egg against Princeton , Illinois and Wake Forest. He is better than those outputs in those 3 games
The thing is you only have to shoot 33% from three to equal the output of a 50% two point shooter. It’s hard to make that much of a difference just by moving back a couple feet.
There were only 7 players in the NBA last season shooting over 50% from the mid-range. There were only 21 that shot better than 47%.
But now that a typical game . If Derek can shoot 5-12 from the field and 1-4 from 3 and gets fouled 4 times driving and hits 5-6 from the line , his total is 16 points and that is doable and should be what Derek should strive for this year. Same game but he shoots all but 2 of his 12 shots from 3 and goes 1-10 from three and 1 for 2 from 2 and 5 -6 from the foul line so he has a total of 10 points. He would have to be 3-10 from 3 to equal the 16 points but how many missed 3’s lead to run outs or droughts that the other team goes on a run. Games are not played in a vacuum and by analytic freaks. The NBA is played that way not most college teams. Good college teams have a mixture of good shooting 2 point shooters and a couple of 3 point snipers. They don’t just abandon the 2 point shot and just shoot threes. If they do, they are mostly unsuccessful and games that they shoot 15% from 3 , they get blown out by 30.
In addition if Derek shoots 6-15 from 2 but cannot hit a 3 , which is more likely for Derek’s skill set , that is still 12 points before the foul line. Derek had 4, 7 and 2 points against Princeton , Illinois and Wake Forest which is a major reason we lost , in addition to Cliff and rebounding. If he had 12 and some foul shots against Princeton we likely win and the Illinois and Wake Forest are closer down the stretch and who knows what happens even though we might still have lost.
I’m sure it won’t last, but just thought it’s be fair to point out he’s actually off to a goo 6 for 12 start from 3 this season. That’s not a problem.
If Derek is 6-15 from 2 and can't hit a 3 then he is not good and we need a different guard.
Also this. He's shot better from 3 than from 2 this year.
What was he in the 3 losses to Princeton , Illinois and Wake Forest . ? Let’s see 0-0 against Princeton , Illinois 1-1 and Wake Forest 0-1 . So tauting 6-12 is 1-2 in the 3 losses and 5-10 in the other 5 wins. He has to be better all around but definitely against the better teams and elevate his game not go backwards.
So he shot the same percentage in the losses but shot more of them in the wins? If this meant anything (it doesn't) wouldn't it mean he should be shooting them more?
Yep that was my point. It’s a meaninglessly small sample size. All I was saying is that so far this season he has not been chucking up bricks of the 1 for 10 variety from 3 point land as the post I responded to suggested.
Goru7,
I'm saying no 2 points shots from 15 out if there are more than 5-7 seconds left on the shot clock.
8-14 footers, I'm fine with those. Get into the paint. A miss should give Cliff a chance at a rebound. He isn't taking those though. He's taking deep 2's. The WORST shot in basketball.
Out to what distance would you put in the good shot category?
I'm saying no 2 points shots from 15 out if there are more than 5-7 seconds left on the shot clock.
8-14 footers, I'm fine with those. Get into the paint. A miss should give Cliff a chance at a rebound. He isn't taking those though. He's taking deep 2's. The WORST shot in basketball.
Out to what distance would you put in the good shot category?
These stats are insanely bad for D1 starting players. These stats are bad for HS JV
Meanwhile here's what a championship team is doing.
They essentially never shot 2's over 14 ft. with more than 5 seconds. Granted they are much more skilled on offense than us.
That shot chart is basically proof the game is broken. It's a bit sad
We obviously have seen this team has its flaws. They need to shoot more threes. Pike’s goal should just be to bomb away from 3 as much as possible and to press teams RELENTLESSLY. They should bomb from 3 as much as last year’s Penn State did when they had Lundy and Funk. Some will say, our shooters suck, blah, blah, blah……Gavin can hit from 3, Hyatt, Noah, Oskar, Simpson can hit 1 a game, Mag can pop out for maybe 1 per game, JMike will hit some. This team has too many empty trips down the floor that they would be better served shooting more threes to make up for their poor % rate on layups, bad post play, lack of mid range scoring. Mag may help with the mid range part but this team needs to bomb like Penn State did, got them to the tourney and a tourney win as well last year. Do we have shooters at the level of Penn State’s? No, but we have plenty of guys that are capable of making threes. We heard all year that this team would play fasts and shoot lots of threes. They don’t take enough, they actually shot well against Illinois from 3 but should have shot more. This team needs to play the style that we were sold they would be. I would much rather see a Hyatt 3 than one of his attempts to take his man off the dribble to the hoop.
He couldn’t get free against Illinois to take them. Derek is now a bigger part of the scouting report and the other teams best guard defender will be on Derek. He is our point guard and should be looking to set up his teammates, driving on his man , and making shots. The more Derek shoots 3’s his shooting % will not be close to 6-12 or 50%. It will go down. The question is how much. The fact that he couldn’t get open to shoot many against the 3 tougher teams we have played , does not suggest that will make us more successful if we are relying on him to make threes. He can impact the game incredibly more in many other ways.
Brunson ‘s game and Lebron’s game , who is essentially a point forward but has the ball in his hands to start the offense , are the mid range and driving game . They hit threes but do not take a lot of them compared to most of their shots. Derek can take 3’s but he has to be better at his mid range shooting and drive game as well as setting up his teammates if Rutgers is going to have success this year. Pretty simple.
8-15 feet should be a regular and makeable shot for him and hitting 45% for someone that has been raved about by the coaching staff . Preferably hitting 5-6 a game. No problem with him taking 12-15 shots per game within the flow.
I am with you on long 2’s. No reason to pull up at 17-18 feet to 21 feet or whatever the third point line is. None of those.
Lebron took 1219 shots last year. 502 were less than 5 ft, and 377 were outside the arc (72% of his shots were either at the rim or beyond the arc). He took 197 shots in the 10-19ft range (16%) and made 82 of those attempts (.416)
He's a bad example to use as someone who's game is the 'mid range game'. Driving, absolutely - but he takes almost twice as many threes as he does shots in the 10-19ft range.
What's broken?
That shot chart shows that players and coaches are smarter and more skilled than ever.
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