Scheme vs. execution: Examining the first 10 offensive possessions (with pics)

[kcg88]

Possession 1: Designed to get a lob for Cliff. Derek gives him a nice backscreen and Cliff gets free. The pass from Noah is maybe a split-second early but Cliff should've been able to get to it and jam it.

Possession 2: Lots of movement around the perimeter before Hyatt drives into traffic and gets tied up. Rutgers keeps possession. The inbound play gets Gavin an open corner three that he misses.

Possession 3: Noah gets a screen from Cliff, drives into the lane and pivots to turn and find Hyatt at the top of the key for a three, which he makes.

Possession 4: Horns set. Derek gets it to Hyatt near the top. Gavin comes around to get the dribble hand-off but it's not a very good one from Hyatt (he does nothing to block Gavin's defender, so Gavin can't get clear for a shot or to turn and drive. Noah comes up from the corner to help him out and was going to drive baseline, but he somehow managed to step out of bounds getting the ball.

Possession 5: Hyatt gets it on the move from a long rebound. He dumps it back to Griffiths. Now, Gavin was pretty far behind the line but if Hyatt stays where he was or moves into Hildreth rather than away then Gavin can step right into a shot and let it fly. Instead he has to dribble and makes a bad pass inside. Cliff looked like he was trying to wall off to create a layup for Gavin while Gavin tried to dump it off. (Cliff even pointed up the basket after this play as if to say "go up with it" to Gavin.)

Possession 6: Simpson curls off a screen and takes a midrange jumper with 20 seconds on the shot clock. It's open but I hate hate HATE this shot and you will not catch good offenses taking a midrange jumper with so much time left. He misses.

Possession 7: Noah drives and collapses the defense, which is great. Not as great: Nobody is in any sort of position to do anything. If Derek sprints over he could get a top of the key 3, but he doesn't do that and Fernandes isn't really looking around anyway. He backs it out and drives baseline where he passes it to Gavin who has to stretch to catch it and puts his foot on the sideline as he does.

Possession 8: (after a timeout) Austin Williams brings it up the floor. Wake Forest denies a pass to Fernandes and Rutgers resets by giving it to Cliff to hand back to Williams and set a screen. Wake Forest goes under it and Williams has a relatively clear look. You gotta hit this. (He missed badly)

Possession 9: Rutgers plays hot-potato around the perimeter before Fernandes decides to take a contested stepback three-pointer with 11 seconds left on the shot clock. It misses.

Possession 10: Three-on-two fast break off a turnover that fizzles because JaMichael Davis runs right down the middle of the floor which clogs things up and doesn't give Derek any real options. This eventually ended with us settling into the halfcourt. Hyatt took a logo three with 21 seconds on the shot clock (ugh). JMike rebounded it and nearly threw it away but it went off Wake. Out of the sideline inbound, the best we got was a Simpson long contest three as the shot clock dwindled.

 

[kcg88]

Summary: It's everything. Griffiths and Williams need to knock down (relatively) open three-pointers. Simpson and Fernandes need to be coached to not be chucking up contested shots with lots of time left on the shot clock. Davis clearly is not used to being off the ball in a fast break situation. Hyatt needs to be better as a facilitator if he's going to be handling the ball. He doesn't have to be some dynamic playmaker but there were two instances above (possessions 4 and 5) where he could've used his body to open up a shot for Gavin. That's one of the many little things that makes our offense look even worse than it is for being bad at the big things (like shooting). Instead of two shots from a good shooter in Griffiths, both of those possessions ended with turnovers.

 

[bac2therac]

Thank you for doing this. Its quite a mess and its everyone and everything from execution to coaching

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Yeah - but I was willing to chalk this up to a bad start. We clawed back to within 2 on the road. There’s a silver lining there. We could’ve packed it in but didn’t. It’s not like we started nailing crazy circus shots.

So I’m more interested in what went wrong once we cut it down to 2. Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Fix the issues on the glass and we win a lot more games IMO. Easier said than done though.

 

[BillyC80]

Nicely done, kcg. I would love to see (not asking you to do it) a visual analysis of all the second chance points Wake got, to see exactly what our defensive rebound positioning was, and how it can be fixed.

I assume (hope) that Pike and staff are breaking down film like you just did, and presenting it to the team each day after a game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Nicely done, kcg. I would love to see (not asking you to do it) a visual analysis of all the second chance points Wake got, to see exactly what our defensive rebound positioning was, and how it can be fixed. I assume (hope) that Pike and staff are breaking down film like you just did, and presenting it to the team each day after a game.

In fairness - this game goes very different if Wake didn’t have their center back.

 

[BillyC80]

In fairness - this game goes very different if Wake didn’t have their center back.

Thank you. I’ve been making a similar point in other threads.

If we get JW to clear waivers and Mag back on the floor, the whole dynamic of this team and season will change, since both are starting-caliber players. Not to mention Ogbole’s size and what he can contribute, especially with defensive rebounding.

Some want to dismiss that and say we’re just doomed to have a lousy season. I’m not throwing in the towel until we know what the playing status of those guys will be this year.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Thank you. I’ve been making a similar point in other threads.

If we get JW to clear waivers and Mag back on the floor, the whole dynamic of this team and season will change, since both are starting-caliber players. Not to mention Ogbole’s size and what he can contribute, especially with defensive rebounding.

Some want to dismiss that and say we’re just doomed to have a lousy season. I’m not throwing in the towel until we know what the playing status of those guys will be this year.

The problem is that even if we get Mag back, we don’t know if he’ll be 100%. I do agree he would make a big difference if he is. The upgrade to the press alone would be huge, Nevermind rebounding. For all the other issues, I think an upgrade to these things would have us looking a lot more competitive.

 

[BillyC80]

The problem is that even if we get Mag back, we don’t know if he’ll be 100%. I do agree he would make a big difference if he is. The upgrade to the press alone would be huge, Nevermind rebounding. For all the other issues, I think an upgrade to these things would have us looking a lot more competitive.

Let’s not forget Jeremiah. Reid was cleared to play after two transfers, why not JW (even if we have to wait until January because of the gambling thing). Also, Ogbole’s size has to help, if he can give it a go fairly soon.

 

[bac2therac]

Yeah - but I was willing to chalk this up to a bad start. We clawed back to within 2 on the road. There’s a silver lining there. We could’ve packed it in but didn’t. It’s not like we started nailing crazy circus shots.

So I’m more interested in what went wrong once we cut it down to 2. Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Fix the issues on the glass and we win a lot more games IMO. Easier said than done though.

Wake forest missed a ton of shots both times we clawed back in it, eventually they were going to hit, we gave them too many opportunities...streaky team allowed to go on a run. You cannot possibly spot double digits leads multiple times in the same game especially on the road. It wasnt just a bad start...its our same start through all 8 games

 

[bac2therac]

Let’s not forget Jeremiah. Reid was cleared to play after two transfers, why not JW (even if we have to wait until January because of the gambling thing). Also, Ogbole’s size had to help, if he can give it a go fairly soon.

you are now at the bargainning stage...you will get further

 

[BillyC80]

you are now at the bargainning stage...you will get further

So, you believe we won’t see any of those three on the floor this season, or even if all three make it to the court, say in January, we still won’t perform any better as a team and win more games?

 

[fatsam98]

Let’s not forget Jeremiah. Reid was cleared to play after two transfers, why not JW (even if we have to wait until January because of the gambling thing). Also, Ogbole’s size has to help, if he can give it a go fairly soon.

As far as I know, Jeremiah has zero reason to be cleared to play this season. Pike knows this and acknowledged it well before the season.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Wake forest missed a ton of shots both times we clawed back in it, eventually they were going to hit, we gave them too many opportunities...streaky team allowed to go on a run. You cannot possibly spot double digits leads multiple times in the same game especially on the road. It wasnt just a bad start...its our same start through all 8 games

The first shot defense was ok the whole game. The issue was the rebounding. They had 20+ second chance points not even factoring in the times we fouled them after the offensive board and put them at the line. There were stretches of time where we cleared the glass for multiple possessions in a row and that was when we cut the lead. Could’ve been luck though I suppose as rebounding has been consistently poor all year.

 

[goru7]

Summary: It's everything. Griffiths and Williams need to knock down (relatively) open three-pointers. Simpson and Fernandes need to be coached to not be chucking up contested shots with lots of time left on the shot clock. Davis clearly is not used to being off the ball in a fast break situation. Hyatt needs to be better as a facilitator if he's going to be handling the ball. He doesn't have to be some dynamic playmaker but there were two instances above (possessions 4 and 5) where he could've used his body to open up a shot for Gavin. That's one of the many little things that makes our offense look even worse than it is for being bad at the big things (like shooting). Instead of two shots from a good shooter in Griffiths, both of those possessions ended with turnovers.

Great job Kcg 88. My summary is horrendous execution not coaching in those 10 possessions. There are 6-8 more points in there if the players stop with their simple fundamental flaws and 10-12 points if Gavin and Williams can hit 2 wide open threes. Cliff miss on first possession and later one where Gavin had to drive but should have thrown it up to Cliff earlier are 4 easy points. Blown fastbreak spacing
Damn almost every possession our players just not executing. In my opinion , they have to look in that damn mirror and just play better as these 10 possessions showed.
How the rebounding hasn’t been fixed for 3 games in a row , with Wake getting another 15 offensive rebounds , is coaching and fundamentals and damn effort. That has to fixed in practice today , if we want any success this year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

1. We initiaited too early and Noah is too far from the basket and it is lower percentage
3. i said guards never penetrate and look to pass......you prove me wrong. need to see more of this
7. Wow...you have a shot with 10 eyes and 5 shoulders set in help mode and we don't have the spacing to take advantage. Great job by you here, pretty bad for us
10. That is insane. Shouldnt it be 2nd nature to find a wing.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The first shot defense was ok the whole game. The issue was the rebounding. They had 20+ second chance points not even factoring in the times we fouled them after the offensive board and put them at the line. There were stretches of time where we cleared the glass for multiple possessions in a row and that was when we cut the lead. Could’ve been luck though I suppose as rebounding has been consistently poor all year.

We win the game if there was no OREB by either team I believe. Our guards did a pretty good job as awhole defensively. Our rebounding completely let us down.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

KCG,

57 possessions to go. You go this. I'll look at each one

 

[kcg88]

KCG,

57 possessions to go. You go this. I'll look at each one

It crossed my mind honestly to just try and do all of the first half, at least. Maybe for the Seton Hall game.

 

[kcg88]

1. We initiaited too early and Noah is too far from the basket and it is lower percentage
3. i said guards never penetrate and look to pass......you prove me wrong. need to see more of this
7. Wow...you have a shot with 10 eyes and 5 shoulders set in help mode and we don't have the spacing to take advantage. Great job by you here, pretty bad for us
10. That is insane. Shouldnt it be 2nd nature to find a wing.

On #s 3 and 7...
3 was a really good possession there using Cliff to set the pick. Notice Hyatt moving across the court into Noah's field of vision to get the pass, which Simpson did NOT do on possession 7 when Noah drove (I cropped it out, unfortunately)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

JaMike turns a 3 on 2 to a 1 on 2. Maybe he works for Wake Forest

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We win the game if there was no OREB by either team I believe. Our guards did a pretty good job as awhole defensively. Our rebounding completely let us down.

Yes - this. We played good enough to win if rebounding wasn’t such a disaster. Again - that should be prefaced by pointing out that Wake brought in a center cold turkey who reeled in 14 boards. Now I have no idea how good Wake will be going forward, but to be fair to Pike, our game prep wasn’t based on the expectation of that kid playing.

 

[bitnez]

KCG - very good stuff. Thanks.

 

[BillyC80]

It crossed my mind honestly to just try and do all of the first half, at least. Maybe for the Seton Hall game.

Despite everything, this was a 3-point game with 9:05 left, Noah gets an open look from the arc and misses it. Wonder what could have happened if we had tied it up there. Then WF goes on their run, aided by a few fortuitous whistles.

 

[bethlehemfan]

If we rebound we have a chance. We don’t rebound.

 

[zappaa]

Despite everything, this was a 3-point game with 9:05 left, Noah gets an open look from the arc and misses it. Wonder what could have happened if we had tied it up there. Then WF goes on their run, aided by a few fortuitous whistles.

Why do you wonder Billy-?

You think a tie game all of a sudden makes the team rebound and play Defense

 

[pmvon]

If we rebound we have a chance. We don’t rebound.

The number of balls that bounced off of guys hands was amazing.

 

[BillyC80]

Why do you wonder Billy-?

You think a tie game all of a sudden makes the team rebound and play Defense

Possibly a little better, yes. The phrase, “they just couldn’t get over the hump” is used to describe the phenomenon of player psychology. If the losing team finally ties or takes the lead it’s like a shot of adrenaline.

Meanwhile the team that gave up an 18-point lead gets a little demoralized, maybe plays a little tighter. Coaches sense it too, and everyone in the building feels the momentum shifting. The home crowd gets a little quieter. I wondered about all of that.

PS: when the Mets tied it up during that wild Mookie at-bat in ‘86, you just knew they were destined to win it. Game 7 almost seemed like a formality. 😉

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Great stuff, thank you for doing this.

Re: the missed 3s by Gavin and Williams - even if those guys hit that shot 75% of the time (who knows how accurate that is?), that still leaves a 1 in 16 chance of coming up empty. Maybe this was that 1 time.

And I agree with Billy that if we had managed to tie it, that would have made a psychological impact on both teams. Momentum can be a powerful thing in basketball.

Saturday will be very interesting... I hope.

 

[winfield102]

The 1st 5 minutes I just kept saying "are you f'ing kidding me". The turnovers and bad shots were insane.

2 guys stepping out of bounds? Bad stuff.

Simpson pulling up for the mid range shot and falling away for no reason was ridiculous.

 

[FIJI'83]

PSAL hits the nail on the head, the primary problem with this team is poor rebounding which causes the other team to get 2nd and 3rd possessions to score which in turn places more pressure on a poor shooting team to score. Invariably, we only get one possession to score. This is a recipe for losing large. We have always been a poor shooter team but now are defense sucks too. Players lack skill and are for the most part soft. The poor construction of this team is irremediable. I am expecting to be blown out by SHU. Long, long, bad, bad, season ahead.

 

[RutgersDom]

Summary: It's everything. Griffiths and Williams need to knock down (relatively) open three-pointers. Simpson and Fernandes need to be coached to not be chucking up contested shots with lots of time left on the shot clock. Davis clearly is not used to being off the ball in a fast break situation. Hyatt needs to be better as a facilitator if he's going to be handling the ball. He doesn't have to be some dynamic playmaker but there were two instances above (possessions 4 and 5) where he could've used his body to open up a shot for Gavin. That's one of the many little things that makes our offense look even worse than it is for being bad at the big things (like shooting). Instead of two shots from a good shooter in Griffiths, both of those possessions ended with turnovers.

Good stuff...Thanks for your time on this...Only thing I would disagree on is Simpson's mid range shot is one he's fairly good at so I have no issue taking that whenever it's open during the shot clock...

 

[RUChoppin]

Good stuff...Thanks for your time on this...Only thing I would disagree on is Simpson's mid range shot is one he's fairly good at so I have no issue taking that whenever it's open during the shot clock...

Simpson has been a .313 shooter from 2P range this year... he needs to calm down with the low value shots (midrange pull ups) and get to the rim to either make a layup or draw a foul.

 

[bethlehemfan]

Simpson has been a .313 shooter from 2P range this year... he needs to calm down with the low value shots (midrange pull ups) and get to the rim to either make a layup or draw a foul.

Particularly early in the shot clock and defended.

 

[goru7]

Particularly early in the shot clock and defended.

This is the dilemma right. Simpson best most makeable shot is his mid range pull-up. His stats from last year show he wasn’t efficient. However , I watched him in practice and the coaches were universal that he has really developed that part of his game. So the expectation is that he is going to be very efficient in his mid range. However, several games in and in particular the Princeton and Illinois games it was terribly bad. His strength is not from 3 point land where when all is said and done his efficiency will be significantly lower . He just has to shoot better. He is very capable. Now I agree he has to drive , get fouled , use the backboard to make layups , make jump stops , use pump and head fakes , use his pivot foot to stop and let defenders fly by , and all other areas that you would expect from a promising rising sophomore.
Bottom line is he has get better , slow down , see the game , see where his teammates are on the court and hit easy shots. He has to play and shoot better if we are going to win this year.

 

[fluoxetine]

Simpson might be good at the mid-range shot relatively speaking, but it's not a good shot regardless.

 

[goru7]

Simpson might be good at the mid-range shot relatively speaking, but it's not a good shot regardless.

Not true . If he hits 5-6 from his mid range instead of going 1-5, Princeton , 1-6 against Illinois , and 2-7 against Wake Forest maybe we win or make it a close game at the wire. Much more importantly , hitting his mid range consistently would stop our year long problem of our scoring droughts allowing other teams to go on their ridiculous runs of 17-3 and 18-0 that seem to be happening too much this year.
I know you are looking at this purely from analytics perspective , but the the flow of the game and how a game turns , has almost nothing to do with analytics

 

[BillyC80]

Not true . If he hits 5-6 from his mid range instead of going 1-5, Princeton , 1-6 against Illinois , and 2-7 against Wake Forest maybe we win or make it a close game at the wire. Much more importantly , hitting his mid range consistently would stop our year long problem of our scoring droughts allowing other teams to go on their ridiculous runs of 17-3 and 18-0 that seem to be happening too much this year.
I know you are looking at this purely from analytics perspective , but the the flow of the game and how a game turns , has almost nothing to do with analytics

Also, every make allows us to set up our press.

 

[RUChoppin]

Simpson needs to get to the rim and not settle for pull-up jumpers in the mid-range. Shots at the rim are higher percentage than mid-range, and they are far far more likely to draw fouls - and Simpson is a very good free throw shooter.

If it's the only shot available late in the shot clock, then fire away... But it shouldn't be something to attempt early in the shot clock, or if there are other options.

 

[fluoxetine]

Not true . If he hits 5-6 from his mid range

But no one can hit it at anywhere close to this rate consistently. That’s why it’s not efficient.