I am so happy I finally figured out how to use the poll feature (and I am sure all of you are too). If you HAD to bet the ranch, what new schools(if any) are in the Big Ten in ten years from now---
The Big Ten in Ten Years
- Thread starter HeavenUniv.
- Start date
I voted for Georgia Tech and Notre Dame.
1) Realistically, I can't see things going beyond 16 teams in the next decade.
2) Georgia Tech? Strong academic school in a major TV market.
3) Notre Dame? See above. And the fact that it will become an associate member through ice hockey at least opens the door.
Caveat: If Notre Dame is simply hell bent on being an independent for all of eternity, replace them with North Carolina, so GT isn't such a southern outlier.
1) Realistically, I can't see things going beyond 16 teams in the next decade.
2) Georgia Tech? Strong academic school in a major TV market.
3) Notre Dame? See above. And the fact that it will become an associate member through ice hockey at least opens the door.
Caveat: If Notre Dame is simply hell bent on being an independent for all of eternity, replace them with North Carolina, so GT isn't such a southern outlier.
ND's TV deal with NBC expires in...wait for it...10 years.
If NBC is a player in the B1G negotiations it could make financial sense for them to nudge ND toward the B1G. The question is would $35-40mil be a gain or loss for ND?
I'd rather have UVa but think UNC would have the inside track.
If NBC is a player in the B1G negotiations it could make financial sense for them to nudge ND toward the B1G. The question is would $35-40mil be a gain or loss for ND?
I'd rather have UVa but think UNC would have the inside track.
None of the above. The conference is not going to expand for at least 25 years.
For what it's worth, the B1G payouts will eclipse what ND gets from NBC. The BTN alone may pay close to 12MM a team THIS year.
Could I write in Rutgers? Just happy that we will still be in it in 10 years, especially since it will be a few years after getting a full payout.
The Houston Cougars will be a fine representative of the Big Ten. Its actually the only reason that we should be concerned with recruiting and TV Market. It's not a popular choice with theyll be a fine representative. Screw the small fan base argument, they've got a great TV market and the best high school football recruiting in all of the nation. Theyll serve the Big 10 West very well. They can absolutely become the new Miami.
Every B1G program already makes significantly more TV money than Notre Dame. Notre Dame's contract that just expired was reportedly worth $15 million per year. A full share from the B1G was $32 million from the 2014-15 fiscal year.
ND is not joining a conference unless they absolutely have to. Only way that happens is if we end up worth four conferences and each Champion getting one of the four playoff spots. Don't see that happening anytime soon.
I asked about ND's TV contract because I wasn't aware of how much NBC is paying them. I understand ND's love of independence and their belief that they're too important to be just another conference member but an additional $20 million guaranteed? I guess I'm naïve but can any school turn down a payday like that?
Even if they did want to join, I'm not sold I want them. I have questions about their ability to play well with others. Ditto Texas.
They seem to be doing just fine: http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-is-your-favorite-college-football-team-worth-1452473476
It's a relatively small school with a huge endowment. I would imagine being a private school gives them more flexibility to pass on a payday to follow their core values. And in the football program, independence seems to be a core value.
I believe Notre Dame is the only school on the list that could get into the Big Ten without being AAU so I'm eliminating FSU, Virginia Tech, UCONN, and Oklahoma to start.
Notre Dame would sooner shut down the school than humble themselves to join a conference for football so throw them out.
Texas would be out on an island because they have no logical partner to come in with. They don't need the money and the Pac-12 would be their preferred option if money is not a factor.
Kansas is AAU but I'm not sure they have the football program or the new markets the Big Ten desires. I could only see them added as an and-1 type of school like if Texas or ND somehow decided to join and the Big Ten just needed another team to come in with them. Since I don't see Texas or ND as likely to join, I'm ruling out Kansas too.
Georgia Tech doesn't make sense to me. Another school that would be out on an island plus Big Ten expansion has always been about large flagship type schools that carry their state. GT isn't #1 in Georgia and I've heard some question if they even get you Atlanta.
That leaves Virginia and North Carolina. This is what we know about them. First, they are both AAU. Second, both are flagship schools in large states (both top 12 in population with good demographics in terms of growth). I think we can conclude that the Big Ten would take them. The question is, what needs to happen for them to want to leave for the Big Ten? I think the obvious trigger is that the ACC needs to become unstable. Neither of these schools will leave on their own to wreck the ACC but neither is going to stay on board a sinking ship either. If that happens, at least UNC will have its choice of SEC and Big Ten. I think their fans would largely prefer the SEC because they see themselves as a Southern school and I guess in 2016 that is still an important thing to them. The administration, however, will see the tangible benefits of the Big Ten beyond the athletic arena and probably prefer the Big Ten. Obviously, the administration will need to win that battle against the fans. I'm not sure if the SEC is interested in Virginia or not and Virginia may be a little too snobby to want to compete in the SEC. I think if UNC comes to the Big Ten, Virginia would come as well. I'm not sure what happens to Virginia if UNC goes SEC.
Notre Dame would sooner shut down the school than humble themselves to join a conference for football so throw them out.
Texas would be out on an island because they have no logical partner to come in with. They don't need the money and the Pac-12 would be their preferred option if money is not a factor.
Kansas is AAU but I'm not sure they have the football program or the new markets the Big Ten desires. I could only see them added as an and-1 type of school like if Texas or ND somehow decided to join and the Big Ten just needed another team to come in with them. Since I don't see Texas or ND as likely to join, I'm ruling out Kansas too.
Georgia Tech doesn't make sense to me. Another school that would be out on an island plus Big Ten expansion has always been about large flagship type schools that carry their state. GT isn't #1 in Georgia and I've heard some question if they even get you Atlanta.
That leaves Virginia and North Carolina. This is what we know about them. First, they are both AAU. Second, both are flagship schools in large states (both top 12 in population with good demographics in terms of growth). I think we can conclude that the Big Ten would take them. The question is, what needs to happen for them to want to leave for the Big Ten? I think the obvious trigger is that the ACC needs to become unstable. Neither of these schools will leave on their own to wreck the ACC but neither is going to stay on board a sinking ship either. If that happens, at least UNC will have its choice of SEC and Big Ten. I think their fans would largely prefer the SEC because they see themselves as a Southern school and I guess in 2016 that is still an important thing to them. The administration, however, will see the tangible benefits of the Big Ten beyond the athletic arena and probably prefer the Big Ten. Obviously, the administration will need to win that battle against the fans. I'm not sure if the SEC is interested in Virginia or not and Virginia may be a little too snobby to want to compete in the SEC. I think if UNC comes to the Big Ten, Virginia would come as well. I'm not sure what happens to Virginia if UNC goes SEC.
I don't think that non-AAU status is an immediate disqualifier. Nebraska got in despite the conference knowing they were going to lose their AAU membership (Michigan and Wisconsin voted against them in the AAU, despite voting for them in B1G membership). I think AAU status is part of a comprehensive evaluation, however I think it's lower on the list than many people think.
14 might be the breaking point for the Power 5, it may never go beyond that, unless UND wants all in, but that is about it.
We add Virginia and North Carolina. Delany played basketball at North Carolina plus both schools are AAU. Nice adds in all sports. We continue to expand to the east imo.
.02
and, Go Cats !!
.02
and, Go Cats !!
I don't think that's correct. Nobody knew for sure at the time of their admission how Nebraska's AAU vote would go. Michigan or Wisconsin might have known how they were going to vote but they wouldn't have known how all the votes would go.
Not so sure about that. I distinctly recall that they made a point on announcement that they were an AAU school. Anybody in higher Ed knew they were on thin ice, but nobody in the press knew that. Once they were in it's not like they'd get the boot. But it is still an important hurdle for entry.
as far as AAU goes, as long as the school is a very good academic university (Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Florida State, Virginia Tech, UConn, Miami, Wake Forest, NC State, Syracuse, BC all meet this criteria amongst the non-AAU schools in the ACC/B12 + UConn) AND is either a college football "franchise player" (OU, FSU, ND, Miami) or in a major television DMA (VT, FSU, Miami, UConn, BC, NC State, WF) and to a much lesser extent a basketball "franchise player" (UConn, Syracuse) then the B1G will likely already be considering them to an extent, alongside the AAU schools Duke, UNC, Texas, UVA, GT, KU.
This is the very first time I've seen anyone claim Oklahoma to be a "very good" academic university when discussing expansion and the AAU.
Virginia and GA Tech.
UNC is ACC forever, forever linked politically with rivals NC State and Duke, and Wake Forest to a lesser degree.
Virginia and GA Tech likely had enough of UNC's shenanigans over the past couple of decades. Remember ACC commish is Johnny Swoffy, former AD at UNC when the cheating system was put in place. VA and GA Tech likely had enough of the ACC and its "leadership," and will leave it to FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc. to rebuild.
UNC is ACC forever, forever linked politically with rivals NC State and Duke, and Wake Forest to a lesser degree.
Virginia and GA Tech likely had enough of UNC's shenanigans over the past couple of decades. Remember ACC commish is Johnny Swoffy, former AD at UNC when the cheating system was put in place. VA and GA Tech likely had enough of the ACC and its "leadership," and will leave it to FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc. to rebuild.
USNWR Ranked #108 in the country, #52 ranked public university. Ranked just behind Nebraska, tied with AAU Iowa State, ahead of AAU Kansas, ahead of some very good academic universities University of Illinois Chicago, SUNY Albany, Howard, NJIT, Rutgers-Newark, Cincinnati
Strong doctorate, engineering, medical, pharmacy and scientific research undergrad and grad studies
Research level considered "very high"
http://www.ou.edu/publicaffairs/oufacts.html
http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandr...klahoma-norman-campus-207500/overall-rankings
It might not be an elite school, but its certainly academically very good.
Last edited:
I don't believe ND will join a conference in the near future outside of the NCAA pulling a mandate. UNC, Duke, Wake and NC State will most likely stick together, as will UVA and VT.
Most likely it'll be the schools that are most unhappy with their conferences - Oklahoma and FSU - that will break away. FSU will most likely talk to the B12, SEC and B1G about it, with the B1G the preference (SEC already has UF, B12 is unstable) and I believe the B1G will be happy to take them contingent of Georgia Tech or one of the NC schools joining as well (GT likely). Oklahoma's Boren already has been in touch with B1G officials and it'll only be a matter of time until he makes the move. If OU leaves, it'll completely destabilize the B12 and that will be when Texas jumps ship. With A&M already in the SEC, Texas will then go either Independent, B1G or PAC. A chance to have OSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, FSU on their schedule and trips to Chicago and New York may end up as their big draw in the end.
The new B18 lol
Rutgers
Penn State
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Most likely it'll be the schools that are most unhappy with their conferences - Oklahoma and FSU - that will break away. FSU will most likely talk to the B12, SEC and B1G about it, with the B1G the preference (SEC already has UF, B12 is unstable) and I believe the B1G will be happy to take them contingent of Georgia Tech or one of the NC schools joining as well (GT likely). Oklahoma's Boren already has been in touch with B1G officials and it'll only be a matter of time until he makes the move. If OU leaves, it'll completely destabilize the B12 and that will be when Texas jumps ship. With A&M already in the SEC, Texas will then go either Independent, B1G or PAC. A chance to have OSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, FSU on their schedule and trips to Chicago and New York may end up as their big draw in the end.
The new B18 lol
Rutgers
Penn State
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
I have 3 questions im curious about after reading this thread..not sure who mentioned what so feel free to chime on one or all
Someone said Texas wouldnt be a fit cus doesnt have a close partner to come in with, why not Texas and Houston?
If adding any two more East teams such as teams mentioned Georgia Tech,Virginia, UNC, etc...which two current B1G east teams are switchin divisions?
is the NBC broadcast deal for Notre dame football the only reason they remAin independent??
Why couldnt they join a league amd still work out a deal to carry a certain amount of games or only home games on Nbc??
What if NBC took the other half of this current broadcasts rights that is being negotiated
Someone said Texas wouldnt be a fit cus doesnt have a close partner to come in with, why not Texas and Houston?
If adding any two more East teams such as teams mentioned Georgia Tech,Virginia, UNC, etc...which two current B1G east teams are switchin divisions?
is the NBC broadcast deal for Notre dame football the only reason they remAin independent??
Why couldnt they join a league amd still work out a deal to carry a certain amount of games or only home games on Nbc??
What if NBC took the other half of this current broadcasts rights that is being negotiated
If und wants to come, the big would be happy with them alone. Given conference contracts and the desire to have a balanced league, uconn would be the easy choice. Big owns New York metro, New England and uconn brings a very good sports program except football.
The other issue for them is the bowl cartel has allowed them to act as a single team conference for the purposes of bowl bids and revenue. If the cartel ever froze them out or said you have to join a real conference would the TV deal be enough to remain independent? If they remained outside of the bowl and championship club for how long would their TV attractiveness remain?
Nebraska applied for membership June 11, 2010. They lost AAU membership April 29, 2011. They officially joined the B1G July 1, 2011. In addition, they'd been in danger of losing AAU status for a decade before they actually lost it. Who cares if the press knew? The Big Ten knew, and they added Nebraska anyway.
Actions speak louder than words. The (then) President of the University of Wisconsin can say how important it is that the B1G add AAU schools (which she did), but when she turns around and votes against a new member (which she also did) which one carries more weight?
I rooted for Houston this year, and I'll root for them next year and as long as Herman is down there. Houston has a lot of potential, however they're not a state flagship, they don't have an elite sports brand, and they don't have a huge fan base. They don't bring anything you wouldn't get from Texas alone. Not only that, but I would imagine that Texas would not want to bring an in-state program that is currently not even a P5 program along with them.
Indiana is a no brainer. My guess would be MSU would be the other one.
EDIT: I'm changing my answer here a little. The NBC deal allows Notre Dame to remain independent and still get TV coverage. I don't the the money matters much to Notre Dame, as long as they can get that coverage. If they lost out on national broadcasts, they might have to go to a conference. However, if NBC didn't offer it to them, ESPN, CBS, or even Turner would. They might not make as much, but they don't care about that.
I suppose they could do that, if the league agreed to it. The problem there is that no league is going to agree to it. Look at the instability that the Longhorn Network has brought the Big 12. If they banded together to have a Big 12 network, Oklahoma probably doesn't have the B1G or the SEC on speed dial.
NBC potentially buying the other half of the broadcast rights wouldn't change much. It'd be the same as ESPN holding rights to broadcast the SEC and the B1G.
Last edited:
Virginia and North Carolina would make a lot of sense, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't be so quick to rule out Georgia Tech. TV has been and will continue to be the most important aspect of B1G expansion. And according to Nielsen figures as of September 2015 (most recent I could find), Atlanta is the 9th largest TV market in the country, and would give the conference a presence in five of the top 10 (NYC, Chicago, Philly, DC being the others). It would also open up a fertile recruiting territory; other than being a geographical outlier, the reasons for adding GT would be very similar to those for Rutgers and Maryland.
For comparison, Raleigh-Durham is the 25th largest market - a large reason why I paired UNC with GT in my forecast assuming Notre Dame simply won't budge. The largest TV market in Virginia, Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News, checks in at 42.
I get that Atlanta is a huge market and I'm far from an expert on that area but from what I've read it seems to me like Georgia Tech's presence there is maybe marginally better than BC's in Boston. I just don't think it's big enough to justify their addition unless you happen to get only one of UNC or Virginia and are just looking for an and-1 school. I think UNC and Virginia stick together if the ACC falls apart and I believe both schools are more desirable to the Big Ten than Georgia Tech would be. Could be wrong though.
While it makes for good message board chatter, I don't understand why any Rutgers fan would want the Big Ten to expand. Its in our best interest to have the conference remain at 14 until after we start earing a full share and can make our programs competitive across the board. Otherwise we wild always be looked at as a red headed stepchild. Also, adding new teams means fewer games against the conference powers for us and adding any from the ACC likely puts us in an eastern division that looks nothing like the Big Ten.
