@bac2therac you gonna make this the official NET thread for the season like we've done in the past?
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Well if the field was selected today. RU wouldn't even be in next 12 out..so thats 0% currently
Its impossible to put a number on things. I think 20-11 is pretty safe but 19-12 is dicier
Am I allowed to ask what our NET would be if we were 7-1 with 2 more Q2/3 wins instead of 2 Q1 losses?
All Ive heard is we need to upgrade the OCC because losses to elite teams are better than wins over mediocre teams.
Well we did it.
So would our NET be even worse at 7-1?
All Ive heard is we need to upgrade the OCC because losses to elite teams are better than wins over mediocre teams.
Well we did it.
So would our NET be even worse at 7-1?
Did u see it....its 127 but Wagner is like 332 and Columbia while 76 in the NET currently has a sos of 338. Our 4 early games RU played against a bunch of nobodies and then didnt beat them efficiently
its not sos the issue but the OOC schedule and performance in general, it wasnt tailor made for a resume that is for sure
I just think Kennessaw State was just dumb to play them win or lose...ditto for Princeton neutral side absolutely no upside of that.
the schedule did not offer a chance at many Q1 wins...just 2 in Vegas and originally it was Bama and Houston
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more importantly struggling with the likes of St Peters and not being very efficient vs Monmouth and Merrimack dinged our NET. RU benefitted a few years ago when they were beating these schools by 30
127 seems fine to me, we play a 20 game schedule in a tough conference.
Kenpom and NET don't publish ratings for the full schedule (just the schedule played so far), but Massey Ratings ranks our full schedule at #25 and T-Rank ranks it at either #23 or #16 depending on which of his two metrics you use. That is more than strong enough for me.
I agree that the performance has been bad but that is not a schedule issue.
Separate from strength of schedule, I think the point can be made that Q3 games just suck in general. If the committee would focus to using a more metrics driven approach (which they should, as it would let them properly weight the risk/reward of games instead of falling victim to the bias discussed here) it would go away but I think I am in agreement that Q3 should be avoided. Either get the Q4 "autowin" (God forbid you lose one of those) or move up to Q2 so you get some credit..
Now some of this is out of your control. If Kennesaw St was as bad as last year they would likely have been a Q4 even on the road and we likely would have won even with that terrible performance. Ditto Columbia which we expected to be a complete Cupcake and instead becomes more of a Q3 landmine. Princeton I tend to agree as they were pretty likely to be a Q3 game all along (though last year they were a pretty solid Q2 and even this year they could still sneak in).
Tbh I don't hate the idea of playing a cupcake on the road to pad the road record but Kennesaw turned out better than we expected, we played our worst game of the season by a wide margin, and I would agree the timing was bad (right before a big tournament that they were probably looking ahead to).
Regardless of all of this I maintain that the performance is far, far, far more important than these scheduling considerations which would be good to optimize but at the end of the day you need to win the games in front of you, and Pike has failed in these early season NC matchups far too often.
It depends, because NET is basically all efficiency based. If you replaced the last 2 losses with close-ish wins against Q3 teams the NET is likely worse, but we would still be better off from a resume perspective. The committee has pretty much proven it doesn't care about NET except as a tool to see how strong your opponents were and maybe as a seeding tool.
i know you disagree but sos and non conference sos are two seperate things considered on the team sheet. If RU sitting at 18-13 or 19-12...yeah that ooc stuff looms large
Well when I say I disagree I mean I disagree that it should be like that, not that it is. Clearly you are right that it *is*. But a NCSOS of 127 doesn't seem bad, this isn't like the year when we were at almost 300 or something.
As far as I can tell the average NCSOS ranking among power conference teams currently is 214. We are 23rd out of the 79 power conf teams. Now that will fall as our tough NC games are behind us but we are unlikely to be an outlier to the downside there.
Note I used the kenpom NCSOS because I can't find the NET one but it should tell a similar story, and we are 137th in kenpoms which is similar to where we are in NETs.
The site isn’t saying it’s a 23% chance at 15-16. It’s basically saying we have a 23% chance of finishing with a better record then they project and make the field.
Thanks BAC I was waiting to see, now that net is out, what you thought we needed for a regular season win total.
What I took from the net is this, we absolutely have to beat SHall, Prince and Columbia. Then there are 3 B1G teams metrically worse than Notre Dame in the net. Have to have those. Two are at home. Those things give us 11 wins.
Now it gets trickier. Four B1G teams are better than ND and but metrically worse than TX A&M. Three of those games are on the road. We needed OT to beat ND without their leading scorer but I’ll give us the benefit of the doubt and say we split those games. That’s 2-2 for a 13 win total.
Now we’re on to the ten teams better in net than TX A&M. They include the three teams we play home and home with. That’s a total of 13 games. To get to 20 wins we more than likely have to go 7-6 in games vs Conf opponents better than A&M. That’s the hole we’re in.
Two of those 13 games are right away on 12/7 and 12/10. Go RU!
I think something important for those worrying about tourney is the fact that we nearly beat 2 ranked teams without any production from Hayes, Martini, or Acuff… I believe you’ll see more production out of atleast 1-2 of these guys come big ten play.
there will be a ton of Big 10 schools between 12-8 and 8-12
I think too many of us are failing to realize the missed opportunity Vegas offered. 2 huge Q1 misses in losing to Bama and A&M. Sure we looked better, but that means nothing for the resume. In a season that we all thought could be so special, Rutgers has dug themselves their usual tourney chase. It would’ve been nice to be playing for seeding come March, instead we will be playing for a bid. Win 5 in a row, and I will be feeling much better about NET and Tourney chances. But right now they need a 12-8 big ten record, and no slip ups to SHU, Princeton or Columbia.
It’s 2 games. Would have been nice for sure . If the big ten didn’t offer as many chances as it does I’d be more concerned. Not overly concerned.
It is only two games but it’s zero quality OOC wins. I’m not sure 10-10 in league and 18-13 is safe.
I tried pointing this out. But there were some on this board just excited to see us play well after the K State loss. I think everyone is finally catching up just how behind the 8 ball we are. Also, just to point how stupid our OOC schedule is, we have a road game against K State, home against the Hall, and neutral against Princeton. Those are 3 games that really don’t offer much resume wise that are huge bumps in the road. I don’t get it. I really don’t it. Seton Hall is a rival, so we’ll never get rid of them, but the other two are not optimal.
The easy out of conference schedule is a necessity for teams like Rutgers to pad the record with wins and then hope to win at least half of B1G Ten games.The goal is twenty or more wins .Perceived higher level teams can schedule tougher out of conference games because of their talent level and cache as a winning program with a history of NCAA appearances.
scheduling 1 zero upside game is bad enough but Pike decided to put 2 high risk no reward games on the schedule. Yes finally he relented and we played in a tourney but thats just the basics, have to schedule ooc games with a tourney resume in mind. Pike has never really done that in 9 years here. So once again if RU is 18-13 or 19-12 pundits will raise the question of what did they do out of conference, do they have a a quality ooc win
Oh no.....have we already begun GRIEF
1. DENIAL
We almost beat 2 ranked teams (forgetting almost losing to Notre Dame) despite Hayes, Martini and Acuff (possibly 8,9, and 10 or even 9,10 and 11 in the rotation) doing nothing.
That smells like STAGE 1
Not to mention the two ranked teams we played were both very experienced teams. This team is going to continue to get better and better . It’s funny to me that people on here are panicking 8 games in. Let me remind you ..losses to Layfette, UMass, DePaul with 1 win over a bad Clemson team in 2021=tournament .
yes its surprising...actually not surprising that people are forgetting we came within a whisker of another bad loss to a not so good Notre Dame team
add in st johns game and we now have 5 games of similar type scenarios
Princeton will end up as a Q3 win, let’s hope it’s a win. They already have 3 losses. To Texas ST, Wright ST and Loyola. And may not be the top IVY team so a few more losses there I’m sure. That game is such a must win. SHU could also end up being a Q3 win (let’s hope). We should be rooting for ND to end up being a good bubble team. I don’t see that happening.
that's fine..for every 2021 there is a 2018, 2019 and 2024.
Good news is we aren't that deep in a hole. We just can't get too much deeper.
We will get better, but how much better and when?
There is not a cupcake left on the schedule and we have to go 14-9 bare minimum.
@bac2therac Just from a record standpoint and based upon the fact that we have a bunch of Q1/Q2 games coming up in conference, what win total does RU have to reach to be comfortably in? 21? Is 20 in? 19 and we are on the bubble? Hard to say right now without knowing everyone’s resume, 18 could be bubble but feels they may miss out, 19 is bubble and sweat it out on selection day and a 50/50 proposition and 20 they are in? Trying to figure out a rough win target. I think it’s 20 to feel comfortably in the tourney.
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I honestly think an underrated scheduling faux pas is scheduling almost exclusively local teams at home. These are for the most part local kids with some level of regional pride and high-school rivalries and they’re not traveling at all to play these games.
It’s a messed up system in a lot of ways but we have the money, I’d rather pay up for a worn out Alcorn State or Northern Kentucky
I’m not convinced Notre Dame will be totally hopeless this year, they hung tough against two good teams on a neutral floor after us and should get Burton back around conference play
Well I think your question is getting answered . We took a big leap from Kennesaw to Vegas in a short period of time:
agree with this . Notre dame I think will end up staying a quad 2 when it’s all said and done
We went 1-2. We need to be 14-9 the rest of the way....those 3 teams in neutral sites aren't far off of what we are going to see the rest of the way.
When I look at bart rankings removing preseason bias 11 games (of the 23 left) are against teams better than Texas A&M.
33 Penn St(7-1) Q1 0-1 Q3 1-0 Q4 6-0
Q3 Purdue Fort Wayne 102-89, Q4 235 VA Tech 86-64
6 Q4 wins by 19-49 pt wins
44 Missouri(6-1) Q1 0-1 Q4 6-0
6 Q4s 7-72 pt wins
61 Utah(6-1) Q1 0-1 Q4 6-0
6 Q4s 8-48 pt wins
64 Depaul(7-0) Q4 7-0
7 Q4 2-46 pt wins
102 Xavier(7-1) Q1 0-1 Q3 2-0 Q4 5-0
Q3s 9,15, Q4 3,9,14,25,37
It's a mixed bag if we didn't challenge ourselves in the non conference. Personally, I'd prefer sitting 5-3 than any of those others. We proved we can go blow for blow vs Alabama and Texas A&M, which will pay dividend in the NET SEC #1. We already got our first true Road game out of the way and three neutral court games where we won't be intimidated by the crowd @ Ohio St. I think we are very close to a breakout game.
Q3 Purdue Fort Wayne 102-89, Q4 235 VA Tech 86-64
6 Q4 wins by 19-49 pt wins
44 Missouri(6-1) Q1 0-1 Q4 6-0
6 Q4s 7-72 pt wins
61 Utah(6-1) Q1 0-1 Q4 6-0
6 Q4s 8-48 pt wins
64 Depaul(7-0) Q4 7-0
7 Q4 2-46 pt wins
102 Xavier(7-1) Q1 0-1 Q3 2-0 Q4 5-0
Q3s 9,15, Q4 3,9,14,25,37
It's a mixed bag if we didn't challenge ourselves in the non conference. Personally, I'd prefer sitting 5-3 than any of those others. We proved we can go blow for blow vs Alabama and Texas A&M, which will pay dividend in the NET SEC #1. We already got our first true Road game out of the way and three neutral court games where we won't be intimidated by the crowd @ Ohio St. I think we are very close to a breakout game.
I think 20 which is 12-8 in league should be enough...but again what are those wins....19 not so much and 18-13 is real trouble with a bad loss and no ooc wins of note
also conference tourney performance does not matter much anymore...mostly you need to win to make sure you dont fall out of the field, but i dont think you can play your way into the field without winning the conference tourney...and yeah i mean with guys like Ace/Dylan its not outlandish to say that they could go on a run and win the conference tourney
so looking at some other big 10 schools I see Maryland now up to 17
they are 6-1 with a close loss to #6 Marquette and a close win over #76 Villanova as their best win
their non conference sos is a woeful 238
but VERY IMPORTANT LESSON: they absolutely crushed the bottom feeders on the schedule. That is what you have to do and that is partly why RU doesnt have too hot of a NET...
beat #298 Manhattan by 30
#220 Mt St Marys by 34
#305 Florida A&M by 31
#355 Canisius by 61!
#223 Bucknell by 24
#358 Alcorn State by 38
they have games left to #236 St Francis, #160 Syracuse, and #362 Maryland Eastern Shore.
The OOC SOS will likely wind up in the #250-300 range which isnt very good. They will ride those huge margins to a great overall NET though their Q numbers which only shows 2 non conference games in Q1 or 2 will be terrible. So yes they did nothing out of conference BUT they will have the advantage of a better NET which doesnt necessarily mean anything for selection time.
The NET isnt the end all be all. If Maryland goes 10-10 in the Big 10 and finishes 20-11 and has a NET of 35 and Rutgers goes 12-8 and finishes at 20-11 with a NET of 50. Rutgers is likely to have the better resume once you did deeper.
Again its early in the NET, what I look for is just an early glimpse trend. Its obvious that RU got dinged not only for the Kennesaw State loss but the relative inefficient poor performances against bottom feeders albeit in victory. Other schools riding an inflated NET because of their weak sauce schedule and giant margins of victory
Another curious case is San Diego State who is just 3-2 with a NET of just 60. One would think it would be better given their losses were to #3 Gonzaga, #14 Oregon and they wins over #21 Houston and #93 Creighton. There is a 5 point win over San Diego but SD is 78 so that close game should not ding them that much. Their sos is 4 which is amazing. So yes there is something funky going on here. Yeah only 5 games with 3 wins but expect their numbers to rise.
I think there could be tons of movement just based on getting a quality win. I think a RU win at Ohio State who is 11 would be GINORMOUS. Its also disappointing that Columbia looks to be RUs best potential non conference win of the season.
they are 6-1 with a close loss to #6 Marquette and a close win over #76 Villanova as their best win
their non conference sos is a woeful 238
but VERY IMPORTANT LESSON: they absolutely crushed the bottom feeders on the schedule. That is what you have to do and that is partly why RU doesnt have too hot of a NET...
beat #298 Manhattan by 30
#220 Mt St Marys by 34
#305 Florida A&M by 31
#355 Canisius by 61!
#223 Bucknell by 24
#358 Alcorn State by 38
they have games left to #236 St Francis, #160 Syracuse, and #362 Maryland Eastern Shore.
The OOC SOS will likely wind up in the #250-300 range which isnt very good. They will ride those huge margins to a great overall NET though their Q numbers which only shows 2 non conference games in Q1 or 2 will be terrible. So yes they did nothing out of conference BUT they will have the advantage of a better NET which doesnt necessarily mean anything for selection time.
The NET isnt the end all be all. If Maryland goes 10-10 in the Big 10 and finishes 20-11 and has a NET of 35 and Rutgers goes 12-8 and finishes at 20-11 with a NET of 50. Rutgers is likely to have the better resume once you did deeper.
Again its early in the NET, what I look for is just an early glimpse trend. Its obvious that RU got dinged not only for the Kennesaw State loss but the relative inefficient poor performances against bottom feeders albeit in victory. Other schools riding an inflated NET because of their weak sauce schedule and giant margins of victory
Another curious case is San Diego State who is just 3-2 with a NET of just 60. One would think it would be better given their losses were to #3 Gonzaga, #14 Oregon and they wins over #21 Houston and #93 Creighton. There is a 5 point win over San Diego but SD is 78 so that close game should not ding them that much. Their sos is 4 which is amazing. So yes there is something funky going on here. Yeah only 5 games with 3 wins but expect their numbers to rise.
I think there could be tons of movement just based on getting a quality win. I think a RU win at Ohio State who is 11 would be GINORMOUS. Its also disappointing that Columbia looks to be RUs best potential non conference win of the season.
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