THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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I don't disagree from a defensive point of view, JWill is better, I was only saying he wasn't really in the first half last night.
I prefer Acuff on the offensive end, and despite the brilliance of Dylan and Ace, we still struggle offensively for decent size stretches. I'd reallly expect both of them to score more when Dylan isn't out there as the ball finds them more. Truth is, this team really needed JWill and Acuff to play better than they have thus far.
My thoughts also on the plan, I agree. I wonder if we will see it more though.
acuff and dylan does not work together...and frankly does not need to work
also it would be nice if this was just a thread for the NET...not sure how a conversation about J Will/Acuff took the last couple of pages over.
Eh, it's been 12 pages since our net was actually relevant, so does it matter? Ha, win a few more, we can go back to NET.
It works better offensively and worse defensively, and your 2nd point is hopefully correct. I think we are actually finding the best combo is Davis and Dylan
Here’s a brain teaser for the board NETizens:
Approximately what would our NET be, and the likelihood of getting a NCAA bid, if we finish 6-2 with the only 2 losses being at UM and at Purdue by 1 point each, where we were efficient on both ends of the floor?
This will be 40% of your grade. Show your work.
Approximately what would our NET be, and the likelihood of getting a NCAA bid, if we finish 6-2 with the only 2 losses being at UM and at Purdue by 1 point each, where we were efficient on both ends of the floor?
This will be 40% of your grade. Show your work.
If we did that and finished 18-13, I'd say we'd better pray for a really weak bubble and no bid-stealers. Would also be great if Princeton/Kennesaw St would win out the rest of the way, and a couple of the teams ahead of us in the B1G helped out with some key losses to drop below us in the conference standings.
Very roughly, we'd be:
Q1: 6-11
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 1-2
Q4: 6-0
That's 11-11 in Q1/Q2, balanced against 2 bad Q3 losses (that might look better if those two won the rest of their slate, but I doubt they can reach Q2).
So sure - let’s go back to NET (sort of). VCU remains this year’s fraud and exemplifies why I dislike the system. Green / Fluox - your WAB is growing on me. I like the WAB ranking column on the NET page and wonder if a push should be made for WAB to replace NET. The WAB rankings seem to “get it”. In WAB - VCU is 64. SDSU 40, Drake 42. WAB is right. NET is wrong, plain and simple. There’s no metric that should rank VCU higher than a 5 loss MWC team with wins over Houston and Creighton.
I can’t help wonder what the quads would look like if they were based on WAB. Rutgers, by the way sits at WAB 69 right now…. I wonder how the committee will use it.
I can’t help wonder what the quads would look like if they were based on WAB. Rutgers, by the way sits at WAB 69 right now…. I wonder how the committee will use it.
I don't know why I keep getting sucked in but I just can't ignore when people say things like this.
I know it's opaque and whatnot but NET is essentially an advanced statistic.
If I published a ranking of teams by something like.. adjusted OREB% you would expect it to have a lot of cases where a better team, in your opinion, is ranked below a worse team.
Now adjusted efficiency is a lot more directly correlated with winning than OREB% is but it's still in essence a statistic. It can't be "wrong". You can disagree with its usefulness or the manner in which it is used but that is different.
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i will be doing my first deep dive next week but for people who rave about 11-11 in Q2 should be strong enough for RU to get in...here is the concern, with so many of the power 5 in the top 100, it means many less chances for Q3 losses and more chances for a large amount of games in Q1/2 and shots for Q2 wins....so compared to other seasons we may see a situation with less Q3 opportunities across the schools with more than one Q3 loss can stick out....the exception of all this is the ACC which is a sham of a conference right now and its Quad 3 galore over there...that will impact schools like smu, pitt, wake and even unc as they try to get bids...smu is 18-5 I think but weak in their quality of wins and Q1 wins and do not have many opportunities for many more...can a school that goes 23-8 in the ACC not get a bid with a net in the 40s...we may find out
my negativity toward RU at 18-13 is that there will also be many other schools with a similar record without 2 Quad 3 losses and with a better ooc win...see Nebraska or Ohio State
According to bart, our WAB is 75th right now. If you use the quads based on bart's WAB instead of NET, we'd be Q1: 3-9, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 1-2, Q4: 6-0
WAB has Wagner at 219th (vs 341 in NET), PSU at 95 (vs 60), Notre Dame at 162 (vs 92)
IMO, at 18-13 we'd need a ton of help, with other schools' resumes breaking right (or wrong).
lot of games to play...some of the lower end sec schools being projected in have some issues with their resumes...vandy, georgia, texas, oklahoma, and now Arkansas who was left for dead just picked up 2 Q1 road victories
the bubble is very weak right now...there are a slew of sec acc and big 12 schools that are borderline on either side of the bubble right now that have to figure themselves out
The Ohio State and Nebraska recent surge has put them in great position if they can just play even the rest of the year
The Ohio State and Nebraska recent surge has put them in great position if they can just play even the rest of the year
Always have to worry about bid stealers . Even if in some years it is only 1 or 2. Teams that might bid steal , someone from the A-10 as either VCU or George Mason and Dayton are on the mix. Highly doubt committee will not take 2 from the A-10.
Drake is getting close to at large status in the MVC . Not there yet.
WCC becomes an issue. San Francisco beat St. Mary’s the other night. If they do it again in the conference tourney then win it all then 3 teams come out of the WCC , St. Mary’s , Gonzaga and San Francisco.
AAC American. Another issue. Gotta hope Memphis wins the tourney because they are almost a lock for at large . If they do , I think it is a 1 bid league.
Another issue is how good the SEC is , creates another issue. They are looking at a minimum of 12 and 13/14 is in play. That counteracts the ACC somewhat , which will only get 4 , with UNC , Wake and PITT battling for it.
Going to be very hard on the bubble this year as there might only be 10 spots out of 30 teams in contention as the major conferences specifically SEC, Big 10 and BIG 12 have a large number of teams at least 12,9 and 8 likely
Drake is getting close to at large status in the MVC . Not there yet.
WCC becomes an issue. San Francisco beat St. Mary’s the other night. If they do it again in the conference tourney then win it all then 3 teams come out of the WCC , St. Mary’s , Gonzaga and San Francisco.
AAC American. Another issue. Gotta hope Memphis wins the tourney because they are almost a lock for at large . If they do , I think it is a 1 bid league.
Another issue is how good the SEC is , creates another issue. They are looking at a minimum of 12 and 13/14 is in play. That counteracts the ACC somewhat , which will only get 4 , with UNC , Wake and PITT battling for it.
Going to be very hard on the bubble this year as there might only be 10 spots out of 30 teams in contention as the major conferences specifically SEC, Big 10 and BIG 12 have a large number of teams at least 12,9 and 8 likely
By “wrong”, I simply mean the output it’s producing serves as a poor primary metric when it comes to selection - for sorting or classification. Lunardi has VCU in his next 4 out and NET could be the only possible justification for that.
The comparison to San Diego State demonstrates the clear flaw as a selection tool. Winning and not losing needs to matter more than efficiency no? It’s really messed up for that not to be the case. Both teams have 5 losses but SDSU has played way more quality opponents. VCU played 12 Q4 games vs 7 for SDSU. SDSU played 6 Q1 game and they are 3-3. VCU is 0-1. Beating the snot out of bad teams shouldn’t matter if youve only played one potential tournament team and have 5 losses.
In my opinion - only Dayton could be a legit At Large contender from the A-10 if they go on a win streak unless the committee buys into VCU’s gaudy NET. They have no good wins to this point and no real opportunities to pick any up.
Teams like SF or Boise stand as more of a threat because they still have opportunities to pick up meaningful wins.
The problem we have is all of these teams have at least 3 (and many 4+) more losses than us right now. So realistically - a lot of them will end up with less than 14 losses on selection day even if they go 500 the rest of the way. All but 2 SEC teams are in the NET top 44 so the quality wins will be there without the Kennesaw loss.
Drake is going to get a big if they are like 28-4
atlantic 10 in trouble because dayton has best wins but floundered in conference...there is likely a bid stealer here...vcu has solid at large chances
if san fran can beat gonzaga 2x they just might dance
i definitely envision a bid stealer from aac
the sec schools resumes are coming down to earth the more they play...thats exactly why i dont do early bracketlogy..its worthless early because its based on a small amount of games where quality wins have an oversized influenced
the bubble is small and weak now but i said that last year..watch what happens in a month
i think if vcu wins the regular season they get in unless there are other bid stealers
Because the Big East and ACC are so down that is why the bubble is weak . But on the other hand the 3 other mega conferences , SEC, BIG 10, and BIG 12, will have more bids than usual because the size of the league has expanded and all have added decent teams .,SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma ; BIG 10 adding UCLA, Oregon , USC and Washington and BIG 12 adding Arizona and BYU .,
Okay nevermind. WAB clearly doesn’t work well at the bottom for sorting. I wonder how it ranks Wagner at 219 in WAB? That seems nuts.
The NCAA is now reporting WAB themselves next to the quads on the NET ranking. So I assume that’s probably the one to use? Slightly different from BART.
Yes. They are squarely on the bubble just like WaKe Forest , Pitt and UNC in the ACC and Nebraska and Ohio State in the Big 10. Ohio state ‘s NET seems to put them firmly in but if collapse down the stretch , they are a bubble.
ohio state and nebby are in good shape...can go 10-10 and for nebby 9-11 and still have the goods to go depending on what wins they get down the stretch
That actually kind of makes sense given RPI’s looping issues. We know RPI is going to grossly overvalue a road win over 6 loss Central Connecticut. Also - instead of playing some of the worst D1 teams, Wagner played a bunch of D2 teams which don’t count in the calculation.
But WAB would figure to be different. I find it hard to imagine there aren’t more teams that would do better than Wagner did relative to the bubble against their schedule.
Do the conference records matter at all? Total loss count seems like our biggest obstacle. It’s going to be next to impossible to beat out most major conference teams with 2 less losses than us.
Even one extra loss could prove problematic. USC is nowhere near the radar either right now but they have 2 less losses than us and wins @ Illinois, Michigan St, @ Nebraska. There are so many teams like that. If we had 14 losses and those teams have 13 our wins better really shine because the extra loss is Kennesaw.
Nope..nebby at 9-11 could easily have a better resume than 11-9 rutgers or 11-7 acc
Vcu has no wins. 0-1 in quad 1 and have a horrific q4 to .... the shoe. Their best win is probably St Joes on the road.
That's okay.. if they go 6-1 the rest of the way at 23-6 they have a decent shot...starts tonight with road opportunity at Dayton..a borderline q1/2
Their sos ooc an issue. 11 wins in q4 but don't discount regular season titles in high mid majors
Their sos ooc an issue. 11 wins in q4 but don't discount regular season titles in high mid majors
Since WAB is specifically focused on being a +/- relative to a bubble team’s expectation it will work best when you are near the bubble.
It won’t differentiate too much from a SOS perspective between bottom feeder teams because those are all teams that a bubble team should beat like 98% or more. So it won’t have a lot of fidelity if you are using it to compare terrible teams.
Their problem I think is that Dayton won’t be that if they absorb 2 VCU losses. So best case for VCU probably would be a split there and Dayton winning out the rest. But even with that, all they have otherwise is a home game with GM. That wouldn’t be a very strong 7 loss resume in my opinion. It’s not even so much that they didn’t beat good teams but rather, they didn’t even play them.
Division title or not I think they will find themselves in a high mid major version of the problem Rutgers would have in comparative loss count. They need to keep theirs below SF and the MWC 4-5th place teams because their schedule is weaker. Even Drake and Bradley played far less Q4 games.
Yeah if it was going to be used as a sorting tool it would have to shift at a certain point to compare vs a lower level school to get a clearer picture at the bottom Q3 vs Q4.
I just think it’s a way better metric to look at for evaluating teams for the tournament in general than blended efficiency. Your broadly misunderstanding that I’m not questioning the math rather I’m questioning the signficance of factoring in relative garbage time performance. When you play a lot of bad teams, a large chunk of possessions are played when the outcome is already decided. How a team does during that stretch doesn’t mean much in my opinion in terms of how good a team is. I also thing that facing some adversity and finding a way to pull out a tight win against a weaker team on a day things weren’t going well for you can be a sign of a good team too. To me - the goal should be an outcome based system that doesn’t do what RPI does and treat a road win over Central CT like a marquis win. WAB seems to try to do that at least in concept.
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