I usually do not participate on game prediction threads. But I could not resist replying to this post.
"Just feeling confident after re-watching both teams games ..." I just finished watching the EMU-Charlotte game. Apparently we each watched completely different games.
I can see the rationale for a close game - because these are after all just college kids playing, and emotions and mental mistakes and turnovers are often wild cards.
But based on watching both the RU game (at the game, and again on DVR), and just watching the EMU game, several thoughst came to mind:
1) RU's entire defense, but especially its Front 7, is WAY faster and WAY more physical, and by a large margin, than Charlotte's defense ... and EMU only scored 17 offensive points in that game ... though 1st games are often not the best games of the season. EMU's coach is a good coach, and EMU's QB is experienced (a 5th year Senior with this being his 3rd year as a starter).
But the EMU QB is not nearly as accurate, or as good, as UW's Browning. EMU's OL is not nearly as experienced, or as athletic as UW's OL. EMU's running backs are solid ... but not at all breakaway backs, like UW's Gaskin was (and is). EMU does have 2 athletic and good WR's. And though EMU's QB is more of a running threat than Browning, he is NOT very fast - the type of running QB that gives RU fits. RU's new defensive scheme, the 3-4, or modified 50 Oklahoma defense is exactly designed to stop offensive schemes like EMU's - and RU's defensive players are athletically superior to EMU's offensive players. If RU's defensive players maintain their assignments, and limit mental errors, there is a chance (though not a guarantee) RU could dominate defensively against an OL that has large players, but also 4 new starters.
2) EMU plays a 4-2-5 defense, with the 5th DB sometimes playing like a LB. And they played against a team that has similar offensive schemes as RU (i.e. QB from shotgun, power spread offense with an emphasis on running the ball, an occasional Pistol formation, short passes). EMU also played a lot of zone against Charlotte - and the Charlotte QB was unable to find those holes in the zone - hence 3 interceptions (though 1 INT was on a halfback option pass).
EMU did successfully defend against Charlotte, giving plenty of ground between the 30's, and forcing Charlotte into situations where their QB made mistake passes, which EMU intercepted. On the other hand, Charlotte had FOUR (4), I think it was 4, 15-yard penalties on OFFENSE, all of them negating large gains (2 or 3 of which were deadball foul, one an illegal block below the waist), putting Charlotte in difficult yardage situations, or forcing them to extend into much longer drives.
Unless EMU changes its defensive approach, RU could rush for 250+ yards. Charlotte was getting push with its OL, often pushing EMU's DL 3-4 yards from the LOS. And the Charlotte OL was creating plenty fop lanes for their power running back. Charlotte was also able to run outside on EMU's defense (albeit, with the QB). Martin and Edwards are each better than the Charlotte RB: bigger, stronger and faster. Heck, I am pretty sure Hicks is better (as strong, and faster) than the Charlotte RB. It would seem likely RU's OL is also better than Charlotte's OL - stronger and more athletic. And if EMU front 6 to 7 crowds the LOS more than it did against Charlotte, that will open it up for RU's more athletic WR's (like Grant and Bailey), or RU's bigger WR (like Mitchell), or the TE (Washington) to find seams and holes.
I do not necessarily see RU going deep a lot, and I do suspect a more conservative game plan than many RU fans like will be employed - especially if RU gains the lead. But I can also see RU players like Martin, Grant, Blackshear, etc., getting some bigger chunk plays within even a relatively conservative game plan. And I can see Edwards just pounding for 5+ yards a carry.
It would not surprise me if RU won by just 7-10 points - but the game being not really that close (maybe a late score by EMU to close the gap, after a 1Q score by EMU). Nor would it surprise me if RU won something like 28-10, or even 35-14 - or maybe better. It WOULD surprise me if RU lost - and of course that WOULD be very disappointing.
